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Generich H. Capuli

Publications and source records attributed to Generich H. Capuli.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Baseline Climatology of Tornadoes and Waterspouts in the Philippine Archipelago

Tornadoes are documented on every inhabited continent, yet the environmental conditions used to anticipate them were developed and validated overwhelmingly on mid-latitude records, leaving tropical regimes largely unexamined. Here, we collected 1,186 combined tornado and waterspout reports in the Philippines spanning the early 1900s to 2025 and paired each with an ERA5 proximity sounding to construct the first baseline climatology and environmental characterization of these events in the archipelago. Activity concentrates in three corridors, mostly flanked by mountain ranges, one in each major island group, and is sharply phased within a May-October window that closely tracks the annual cycle of thunderstorm frequency, peaking in August and lagging into October for waterspouts alongside the tropical cyclone season. These events cluster in the mid-to-late afternoon, consistent with daytime heating regime rather than nocturnal convection. The environments are thermodynamically permissive but kinematically shallow with Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) exceeds typical Great Plains values while 0-6 km bulk wind difference (BWD) stays below 10 kt, diverging the mid-latitude covariance in which instability and shear increase together. Although streamwise vorticity is modest in magnitude, nearly all discriminating variance resides in the lowest kilometer, where 68-79\% of near-surface horizontal vorticity is streamwise, reaching > 0.005 s$^{-1}$ and 96\% streamwiseness in the most organized profiles, and the hodographs retain low-level curvature. Consequently, composite indices underestimate even as tornadoes and waterspout recur. Thus, mid-latitude calibrated parameters can therefore misdiagnose tropical-maritime regimes and recalibration toward shallow-layer, orientation-aware kinematic discriminators may recover the diagnostic signal.

physics.ao-ph

Localized Tornado Outbreak at the Upstream of a Tropical Easterly Wave in Camarines Norte, Philippines (13 September 2025)

(Abridge) On 13 September 2025 around 22 UTC, a localized tornado outbreak affected eastern Philippines, causing significant damage in Camarines Norte. The event developed within an atypical easterly severe weather regime characterized by warm, moist southeasterly flow and strong low-level wind shear associated with an easterly wave trough. A vorticity convergence zone along the inverted trough enhanced low-level rotation, while highly curved streamwise hodographs indicated a favorable environment for supercells and tornadogenesis. At least five vortices were identified, including three tornadic supercells. The Magang tornado was rated IF2.5 (EF3-equivalent) with $\sim$2 km damage path, while the Cahabaan and Napilihan tornadoes were rated IF1 (EF1-equivalent), with Cahabaan producing $\sim$3 km damage path. The remaining vortices were rated IF0 (EF0-equivalent). These tornadoes occurred simultaneously, indicating multiple discrete supercells within the same mesoscale environment and possible inflow-outflow interactions. Dual-polarization radar observations revealed Z$_\text{DR}$ and K$_\text{DP}$ columns, a debris signature in the Magang tornado, and a bounded weak echo region (BWER) in the Cahabaan supercell. This study documents the first known tornado outbreak and simultaneous tornadic supercells in the Philippines within an easterly severe weather regime.

physics.ao-ph

Project Severe Weather Archive of the Philippines (SWAP). Part 2: Baseline Climatology of Close Proximity Soundings in Hailstorm Environments across Luzon, Philippines

The environments of severe thunderstorms that produced hail were examined using 171 proximity soundings (2005-2024) archived in the 3rd Data Release of Project SWAP. These soundings were categorized based on their geographical occurrence into three hail-prone environments across Luzon, Philippines. Key parameters describing instability, vertical wind shear, and moisture were calculated to assess the environmental conditions for hail production. The probability of hail occurrence, expressed as a function of W$_{\text{MAX}}$ ($\sqrt{2 \times \text{CAPE}}$) and 0-6 km bulk shear (DLS), revealed patterns distinct from those reported in other regions. Hail events in Luzon were most likely under high CAPE conditions, where boundary-layer moisture was sufficient, mid- and low-level lapse rates were steep, and lifting condensation levels were high. Surprisingly, weak DLS was common across Luzon hail environments, diverging from existing severe weather climatologies, yet large DCAPE indicated environments conducive to damaging wind events. When DLS was replaced with the shear magnitude between the cloud base and equilibrium level, the probability of hail occurrence increased, better aligning with global severe weather climatologies. This finding is supported by hodograph analyses, which show largely unidirectional wind profiles: strong speed shear aloft but weak directional shear in the low-levels. Parameters such as W$_{\text{MAX}}$SHEAR, W$_{\text{MAX}}$SHEAR$_{\text{LCL-EL}}$, and BWD$_{\text{LCL-EL}}$ emerge as potential discriminators between non-severe and severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, and as useful metrics for assessing convective storm severity in Luzon and possibly countrywide. Finally, two recurring severe setups conducive to hail were identified: (1) an easterly regime associated with trade winds, and (2) a westerly regime linked to the Asian summer monsoon.

physics.ao-ph

A Case Study of the Tornadic Supercell in the Province of Pampanga, Philippines (27 May 2024)

This study provides an integrated damage assessment, visual evaluation, environmental context, and remote sensing analysis of the tornado event that struck the suburb of Candating in Arayat, Pampanga on 27 May 2024. Satellite imagery and ground-level damage photographs reveal a $\sim$2 km path, with damage reaching EF2 intensity at one point along the track, based on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. Videos of the tornado and its parent storm reveal a well-defined wall cloud and low-level mesocyclone. Subsequent radar analysis supports these and other features of a tornadic supercell. Synoptic-scale ascent in the mid- and upper-troposphere was subtle, influenced by the approach of Tropical Cyclone Ewiniar. However, a modest meridional flow aloft provided sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell development. The southwest monsoon acted as a low-level jet, promoting warm, moist advection into western Luzon. The supercell developed around midday and was characterized by large-undiluted instability, attributed to steep low-level lapse rates. Although low-level shear and the associated near-surface horizontal vorticity were weak, the latter is highly streamwise, allowing for efficient ingestion, tilting, and stretching into vertical vorticity, which aided in tornadogenesis. Both satellite and radar data suggest that storm interactions, such as a nudging mechanism and terrain effects from nearby Mt. Arayat may have contributed to the initiation and intensification of the supercell through lee-side convergence and vorticity enhancement. The complex tropical environment of the Candating, Arayat tornado exhibits several similarities to well-documented tornadic events in North America. These findings highlight the need for further research into the atmospheric conditions conducive to tornadic activity in the Philippines.

physics.ao-ph

Friday the 13th Hailstorm in the province of Bulacan, Philippines (13 August 2021): A Case Study

This case study presents a thorough investigation of the environmental setup that led to the hail-producing severe storm that impacted the municipality of Norzagaray and City of San Jose Del Monte, including other nearby areas, in the province of Bulacan on the afternoon of August 13, 2021. During this period, 2-5 cm and potentially as large as $\sim$8 cm diameter hail was reported over these locations of Bulacan. For this purpose, the combination of HIMAWARI-8 AHI, PLDN and its flash counts, and meteorological indices; synoptic, thermodynamic, and kinematic indices, calculated from the ERA5 reanalysis are utilized to understand the nature of the hail event. In the morning, the pre-convective environment was comprised by a warm inversion layer that inhibited storm initiation, until the arrival of ample moisture and convective heating in the afternoon. By the afternoon, model sounding analysis revealed that the environment transitioned into uncapped profile with steep low-level lapse rate owing to warm, moist south-westerly wind flow from the Manila Bay in the lower troposphere and north-easterlies aloft crossing the SMMR induced by a weak low-pressure system located in the eastern Philippine Sea, with minimal turning on the wind profile. This promoted low-level convergence within the area of interest and build up of instability. The updraft associated with convectively unstable atmosphere, sufficient cloud-layer bulk shear, and storm nudging at its maturing phase countered entrainment-driven dilution and aided the growth of ice crystals by rapid collection of supercooled cloud liquid particles, which ultimately led to formation of hailstones.

physics.ao-ph

Project Severe Weather Archive of the Philippines (SWAP). Part 1: Establishing a Baseline Climatology for Severe Weather across the Philippine Archipelago

Because of the rudimentary reporting methods and general lack of documentation, the creation of a severe weather database within the Philippines has been difficult yet relevant target for climatology purposes and historical interest. Previous online severe weather documentation i.e. of tornadoes, waterspouts, and hail events, has also often been few, inconsistent, inactive, or is now completely decommissioned. Several countries or continents support severe weather information through either government-sponsored or independent organizations. For this work, Project SWAP stands as a collaborative exercise, with clear data attribution and open avenues for augmentation, and the creation of a common data model to store the phenomenon's information will assist in maintaining and updating the aforementioned online archive in the Philippines. This paper presents the methods necessary for creating the SWAP database, provide broader climatological analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in severe weather occurrence within the Philippine context, and outline potential use cases for the data. We also highlight the project's current limitations as is to any other existing and far larger database, and emphasize the need for understanding these events' and their mesoscale environments, inline to the current severe weather climatologies across the globe.

physics.ao-ph

On Benchmarking SRc $\alpha$ Ori using Period-Luminosity Relationship

We conducted a benchmarking analysis of the semi-regular pulsator and red supergiant $\alpha$ Ori. In its dimming episode last 2020, our observational results include the binned measurements from the space-based telescope SMEI collated. We report a long secondary period of $P_{\text{LSP}}$ = 2350 $\pm$ 10 d and a fundamental mode of pulsation of $P_0$ = 415 d $\pm$ 30 d, with a radial velocity amplitude of the FM at $A_{RV}$ = $2.21_{-0.50}^{+0.95}$ km s$^{-1}$. Meanwhile, we also detected the first overtone component of $P_1$ = 185 d. The derived harmonics of $\alpha$ Ori, including this newly acquired variation, support and align with the current literature. At $\sim$2.20 $\pm$ 0.10 $\mu$m, we acquired Near-Infrared $K$-band photometric measurements from several catalogs and surveys, calibrated accordingly. Our assigned inherent color lies midway between the extremes reported in existing literature. Additionally, we determined a weighted excess color index of $E_{(B-V)}$ = 0.340, and using a $K$-extinction factor of $R_K$ = 0.382, we derived an extinction of $A_K$ = 0.130. By subtracting extinction from all $K$-band photometric measurements and applying both the linearity and the newly derived distance from previous studies, our analysis yields a luminosity of log($L$/$L_{\odot}$) = 5.00 $\pm$ $0.15_{(-0.45)}^{(+0.48)}$ for $\alpha$ Ori. In turn, this allowed us to conduct the benchmarking scheme alongside the data from existing reports that are stitched together using Period-Luminosity ($P$-$L$) relationship. This results in a best-fit relation of log($L$/$L_{\odot}$) = (7.26 $\pm$ 0.10) log $P$ + ($-14.10$ $\pm$ 0.25) and reveals that $\alpha$ Ori can be situated at the lower bound of the 18 $M_{\odot}$ regime due to current pulsation trends.

astro-ph.SR