arXiv subjects

Geoffrey Decrouez

Publications and source records attributed to Geoffrey Decrouez.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Measuring Opportunity Cost with Stock Lifetime Value

Measuring the long-term opportunity cost of interventions remains a critical challenge in e-commerce A/B testing. While strategic levers (such as dynamic pricing, ranking algorithms, and promotional campaigns) trigger shifts in consumer behaviour that persist over months, operational constraints necessitate fast decision-making cycles that are typically limited to weekly experimental windows. Standard metrics like revenue and conversion are inherently short-sighted, biasing decisions toward immediate gains. We introduce Stock Lifetime Value (SLV), a stock-centric metric that captures long-term opportunity cost within short experiments by aggregating expected profit from current inventory through the end of its selling lifecycle. We develop the methodology in the context of fashion e-commerce at Zalando, where stock constraints and seasonal lifecycles make the trade off between short-term and long-term outcomes particularly relevant. SLV aggregates the expected profit from current inventory through the end of its selling lifecycle, providing a way to evaluate interventions against their true profit impact. We discuss three applications: (a) SLV efficiency as a metric for article-level and customer-level A/B tests, validated against realized 18-month lifecycle outcomes; (b) SLV as an optimization target for pricing algorithms, aligning the metric used for measurement with the objective used for decision-making; and (c) a framework for annualizing treatment effects into financial reporting metrics required by business stakeholders. While our empirical setting is fashion retail, the framework applies broadly to any inventory-constrained environment where value decays over time or interventions shift demand across periods.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2017

A pathwise iterative approach to the extinction of branching processes with countably many types

We consider the extinction events of Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. In particular, we construct truncated and augmented Galton-Watson processes with finite but increasing sets of types. A pathwise approach is then used to show that, under some sufficient conditions, the corresponding sequence of extinction probability vectors converges to the global extinction probability vector of the Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. This gives rise to a number of iterative methods for the computation of the global extinction probability vector.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Finite sample properties of the mean occupancy counts and probabilities

For a probability distribution $P$ on an at most countable alphabet $\mathcal A$, this article gives finite sample bounds for the expected occupancy counts $\mathbb E K_{n,r}$ and probabilities $\mathbb E M_{n,r}$. Both upper and lower bounds are given in terms of the counting function $ν$ of $P$. Special attention is given to the case where $ν$ is bounded by a regularly varying function. In this case, it is shown that our general results lead to an optimal-rate control of the expected occupancy counts and probabilities with explicit constants. Our results are also put in perspective with Turing's formula and recent concentration bounds to deduce bounds in probability. At the end of the paper, we discuss an extension of the occupancy problem to arbitrary distributions in a metric space.

math.ST↗

arXiv2013

Normal approximation and smoothness for sums of means of lattice-valued random variables

Motivated by a problem arising when analysing data from quarantine searches, we explore properties of distributions of sums of independent means of independent lattice-valued random variables. The aim is to determine the extent to which approximations to those sums require continuity corrections. We show that, in cases where there are only two different means, the main effects of distribution smoothness can be understood in terms of the ratio $ρ_{12}=(e_2n_1)/(e_1n_2)$, where $e_1$ and $e_2$ are the respective maximal lattice edge widths of the two populations, and $n_1$ and $n_2$ are the respective sample sizes used to compute the means. If $ρ_{12}$ converges to an irrational number, or converges sufficiently slowly to a rational number; and in a number of other cases too, for example those where $ρ_{12}$ does not converge; the effects of the discontinuity of lattice distributions are of smaller order than the effects of skewness. However, in other instances, for example where $ρ_{12}$ converges relatively quickly to a rational number, the effects of discontinuity and skewness are of the same size. We also treat higher-order properties, arguing that cases where $ρ_{12}$ converges to an algebraic irrational number can be less prone to suffer the effects of discontinuity than cases where the limiting irrational is transcendental. These results are extended to the case of three or more different means, and also to problems where distributions are estimated using the bootstrap. The results have practical interpretation in terms of the accuracy of inference for, among other quantities, the sum or difference of binomial proportions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2012

A class of multifractal processes constructed using an embedded branching process

We present a new class of multifractal process on R, constructed using an embedded branching process. The construction makes use of known results on multitype branching random walks, and along the way constructs cascade measures on the boundaries of multitype Galton-Watson trees. Our class of processes includes Brownian motion subjected to a continuous multifractal time-change. In addition, if we observe our process at a fixed spatial resolution, then we can obtain a finite Markov representation of it, which we can use for on-line simulation. That is, given only the Markov representation at step n, we can generate step n+1 in O(log n) operations. Detailed pseudo-code for this algorithm is provided.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Modulus of continuity of a class of monofractal processes

We derive the modulus of continuity of a class of processes called Canonical Embedded Branching Processes (CEBP), recently introduced by Decrouez and Jones, and we establish their monofractal character. CEBP provide a rich class of processes, including the Brownian motion as a particular case. The techniques developed in this study follow the steps of Barlow and Perkins on Brownian motion on a Sierpinski gasket, though complications arise here since CEBP are not Markovian in general.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

On stationary distributions of stochastic neural networks

The paper deals with non-linear Poisson neuron network models with bounded memory dynamics, that can include both Hebbian learning mechanisms and refractory periods. The state of a network is described by the times elapsed since its neurons fired within the post-synaptic transfer kernel memory span, and the current strengths of synaptic connections, the state spaces of our models being hierarchies of finite-dimensional components. We establish ergodicity of the stochastic processes describing the behaviour of the networks and prove the existence of continuously differentiable stationary distribution densities (with respect to the Lebesgue measures of corresponding dimensionality) on the components of the state space and find upper bounds for them. For the density components, we derive a system of differential equations that can be solved in a few simplest cases only. Approaches to approximate computation of the stationary density are discussed. One is to reduce the dimensionality of the problem by modifying the network so that each neuron cannot fire if the number of spikes it emitted within the post-synaptic transfer kernel memory span reaches a given threshold. We show that the stationary distribution of this `truncated' network converges to that of the unrestricted one as the threshold increases, and that the convergence is at a super-exponential rate. A complementary approach uses discrete Markov chain approximations to the network process. We derive linear systems for the stationary distributions of these Markov chains and prove that these distributions converge weakly to the stationary laws for the original processes.

math.PR↗