arXiv subjects

Geoffrey Négiar

Publications and source records attributed to Geoffrey Négiar.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

$t_0$: A Time-Series Foundation Model for Forecasting with Context

We present $t_0$, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: $\texttt{t0-alpha}$ and $\texttt{t0-beta}$, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, $\texttt{t0-alpha}$ reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and $\texttt{t0-beta}$ a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze $\texttt{t0-alpha}$ in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, $\texttt{t0-beta}$ is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

$\clubsuit$ CLOVER $\clubsuit$: Probabilistic Forecasting with Coherent Learning Objective Reparameterization

Obtaining accurate probabilistic forecasts is an operational challenge in many applications, such as energy management, climate forecasting, supply chain planning, and resource allocation. Many of these applications present a natural hierarchical structure over the forecasted quantities; and forecasting systems that adhere to this hierarchical structure are said to be coherent. Furthermore, operational planning benefits from the accuracy at all levels of the aggregation hierarchy. However, building accurate and coherent forecasting systems is challenging: classic multivariate time series tools and neural network methods are still being adapted for this purpose. In this paper, we augment an MQForecaster neural network architecture with a modified multivariate Gaussian factor model that achieves coherence by construction. The factor model samples can be differentiated with respect to the model parameters, allowing optimization on arbitrary differentiable learning objectives that align with the forecasting system's goals, including quantile loss and the scaled Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We call our method the Coherent Learning Objective Reparametrization Neural Network (CLOVER). In comparison to state-of-the-art coherent forecasting methods, CLOVER achieves significant improvements in scaled CRPS forecast accuracy, with average gains of 15%, as measured on six publicly-available datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Learning differentiable solvers for systems with hard constraints

We introduce a practical method to enforce partial differential equation (PDE) constraints for functions defined by neural networks (NNs), with a high degree of accuracy and up to a desired tolerance. We develop a differentiable PDE-constrained layer that can be incorporated into any NN architecture. Our method leverages differentiable optimization and the implicit function theorem to effectively enforce physical constraints. Inspired by dictionary learning, our model learns a family of functions, each of which defines a mapping from PDE parameters to PDE solutions. At inference time, the model finds an optimal linear combination of the functions in the learned family by solving a PDE-constrained optimization problem. Our method provides continuous solutions over the domain of interest that accurately satisfy desired physical constraints. Our results show that incorporating hard constraints directly into the NN architecture achieves much lower test error when compared to training on an unconstrained objective.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Stochastic Frank-Wolfe for Constrained Finite-Sum Minimization

We propose a novel Stochastic Frank-Wolfe (a.k.a. conditional gradient) algorithm for constrained smooth finite-sum minimization with a generalized linear prediction/structure. This class of problems includes empirical risk minimization with sparse, low-rank, or other structured constraints. The proposed method is simple to implement, does not require step-size tuning, and has a constant per-iteration cost that is independent of the dataset size. Furthermore, as a byproduct of the method we obtain a stochastic estimator of the Frank-Wolfe gap that can be used as a stopping criterion. Depending on the setting, the proposed method matches or improves on the best computational guarantees for Stochastic Frank-Wolfe algorithms. Benchmarks on several datasets highlight different regimes in which the proposed method exhibits a faster empirical convergence than related methods. Finally, we provide an implementation of all considered methods in an open-source package.

math.OC↗