Machine learning assisted Bayesian calibration of an accelerator digital twin from orbit response data
Digital twins of particle accelerators are used to plan and control operations and to design data collection campaigns. Accurate modeling typically requires knowledge of quantities that are hard to measure directly, e.g., magnet alignments, transfer functions relating power supply currents to magnetic fields, magnet nonlinearities, and stray fields. In this work we introduce multiplicative parameters to the quadrupole transfer functions to parametrize these effects. We use Bayesian methods to probabilistically estimate these parameters and their uncertainties by calibrating the Bmad digital twin to beam measurements performed at the AGS Booster at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The inference is computationally accelerated using a machine learning emulator of the physical accelerator digital twin trained to a perturbed-parameter ensemble of Bmad simulations. The result is a joint posterior distribution over the parameters constrained by the data, taking into account beam monitor errors. Incorporating estimates of the parameters into the digital twin is shown to result in a significant improvement in the quality of the model and provides error bars on the model parameters and predictions.