arXiv subjects

George Michailidis

Publications and source records attributed to George Michailidis.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Analyses of Multi-collection Corpora via Compound Topic Modeling

As electronically stored data grow in daily life, obtaining novel and relevant information becomes challenging in text mining. Thus people have sought statistical methods based on term frequency, matrix algebra, or topic modeling for text mining. Popular topic models have centered on one single text collection, which is deficient for comparative text analyses. We consider a setting where one can partition the corpus into subcollections. Each subcollection shares a common set of topics, but there exists relative variation in topic proportions among collections. Including any prior knowledge about the corpus (e.g. organization structure), we propose the compound latent Dirichlet allocation (cLDA) model, improving on previous work, encouraging generalizability, and depending less on user-input parameters. To identify the parameters of interest in cLDA, we study Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference approaches extensively, and suggest an efficient MCMC method. We evaluate cLDA qualitatively and quantitatively using both synthetic and real-world corpora. The usability study on some real-world corpora illustrates the superiority of cLDA to explore the underlying topics automatically but also model their connections and variations across multiple collections.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2019

DADAM: A Consensus-based Distributed Adaptive Gradient Method for Online Optimization

Adaptive gradient-based optimization methods such as \textsc{Adagrad}, \textsc{Rmsprop}, and \textsc{Adam} are widely used in solving large-scale machine learning problems including deep learning. A number of schemes have been proposed in the literature aiming at parallelizing them, based on communications of peripheral nodes with a central node, but incur high communications cost. To address this issue, we develop a novel consensus-based distributed adaptive moment estimation method (\textsc{Dadam}) for online optimization over a decentralized network that enables data parallelization, as well as decentralized computation. The method is particularly useful, since it can accommodate settings where access to local data is allowed. Further, as established theoretically in this work, it can outperform centralized adaptive algorithms, for certain classes of loss functions used in applications. We analyze the convergence properties of the proposed algorithm and provide a dynamic regret bound on the convergence rate of adaptive moment estimation methods in both stochastic and deterministic settings. Empirical results demonstrate that \textsc{Dadam} works also well in practice and compares favorably to competing online optimization methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Online Distributed Estimation of Principal Eigenspaces

Principal components analysis (PCA) is a widely used dimension reduction technique with an extensive range of applications. In this paper, an online distributed algorithm is proposed for recovering the principal eigenspaces. We further establish its rate of convergence and show how it relates to the number of nodes employed in the distributed computation, the effective rank of the data matrix under consideration, and the gap in the spectrum of the underlying population covariance matrix. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on low-rank approximation and $\boldsymbol{k}$-means clustering tasks. The numerical results show a substantial computational speed-up vis-a-vis standard distributed PCA algorithms, without compromising learning accuracy.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Randomized Algorithms for Data-Driven Stabilization of Stochastic Linear Systems

Data-driven control strategies for dynamical systems with unknown parameters are popular in theory and applications. An essential problem is to prevent stochastic linear systems becoming destabilized, due to the uncertainty of the decision-maker about the dynamical parameter. Two randomized algorithms are proposed for this problem, but the performance is not sufficiently investigated. Further, the effect of key parameters of the algorithms such as the magnitude and the frequency of applying the randomizations is not currently available. This work studies the stabilization speed and the failure probability of data-driven procedures. We provide numerical analyses for the performance of two methods: stochastic feedback, and stochastic parameter. The presented results imply that as long as the number of statistically independent randomizations is not too small, fast stabilization is guaranteed.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Change Point Estimation in Panel Data with Temporal and Cross-sectional Dependence

We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the location of the change point. Further, we establish the convergence rate and obtain the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator. The form of the distribution is determined by the behavior of the norm difference of the means before and after the change point. Since the behavior of this norm difference is, a priori, unknown to the practitioner, we also develop a novel data driven adaptive procedure that provides valid confidence intervals for the common change point, without requiring any such knowledge. Numerical work based on synthetic data illustrates the performance of the estimator in finite samples under different settings of temporal and cross-sectional dependence, sample size and number of panels. Finally, we examine an application to financial stock data and discuss the identified change points.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

On Applications of Bootstrap in Continuous Space Reinforcement Learning

In decision making problems for continuous state and action spaces, linear dynamical models are widely employed. Specifically, policies for stochastic linear systems subject to quadratic cost functions capture a large number of applications in reinforcement learning. Selected randomized policies have been studied in the literature recently that address the trade-off between identification and control. However, little is known about policies based on bootstrapping observed states and actions. In this work, we show that bootstrap-based policies achieve a square root scaling of regret with respect to time. We also obtain results on the accuracy of learning the model's dynamics. Corroborative numerical analysis that illustrates the technical results is also provided.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Optimism-Based Adaptive Regulation of Linear-Quadratic Systems

The main challenge for adaptive regulation of linear-quadratic systems is the trade-off between identification and control. An adaptive policy needs to address both the estimation of unknown dynamics parameters (exploration), as well as the regulation of the underlying system (exploitation). To this end, optimism-based methods which bias the identification in favor of optimistic approximations of the true parameter are employed in the literature. A number of asymptotic results have been established, but their finite time counterparts are few, with important restrictions. This study establishes results for the worst-case regret of optimism-based adaptive policies. The presented high probability upper bounds are optimal up to logarithmic factors. The non-asymptotic analysis of this work requires very mild assumptions; (i) stabilizability of the system's dynamics, and (ii) limiting the degree of heaviness of the noise distribution. To establish such bounds, certain novel techniques are developed to comprehensively address the probabilistic behavior of dependent random matrices with heavy-tailed distributions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Estimation of Gaussian directed acyclic graphs using partial ordering information with an application to dairy cattle data

Estimating a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data represents a canonical learning problem and has generated a lot of interest in recent years. Research has focused mostly on the following two cases: when no information regarding the ordering of the nodes in the DAG is available, and when a domain-specific complete ordering of the nodes is available. In this paper, motivated by a recent application in dairy science, we develop a method for DAG estimation for the middle scenario, where partition based partial ordering of the nodes is known based on domain specific knowledge.We develop an efficient algorithm that solves the posited problem, coined Partition-DAG. Through extensive simulations using the DREAM3 Yeast data, we illustrate that Partition-DAG effectively incorporates the partial ordering information to improve both speed and accuracy. We then illustrate the usefulness of Partition-DAG by applying it to recently collected dairy cattle data, and inferring relationships between various variables involved in dairy agroecosystems.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Low Rank and Structured Modeling of High-dimensional Vector Autoregressions

Network modeling of high-dimensional time series data is a key learning task due to its widespread use in a number of application areas, including macroeconomics, finance and neuroscience. While the problem of sparse modeling based on vector autoregressive models (VAR) has been investigated in depth in the literature, more complex network structures that involve low rank and group sparse components have received considerably less attention, despite their presence in data. Failure to account for low-rank structures results in spurious connectivity among the observed time series, which may lead practitioners to draw incorrect conclusions about pertinent scientific or policy questions. In order to accurately estimate a network of Granger causal interactions after accounting for latent effects, we introduce a novel approach for estimating low-rank and structured sparse high-dimensional VAR models. We introduce a regularized framework involving a combination of nuclear norm and lasso (or group lasso) penalty. Further, and subsequently establish non-asymptotic upper bounds on the estimation error rates of the low-rank and the structured sparse components. We also introduce a fast estimation algorithm and finally demonstrate the performance of the proposed modeling framework over standard sparse VAR estimates through numerical experiments on synthetic and real data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Fast Randomized Algorithms for t-Product Based Tensor Operations and Decompositions with Applications to Imaging Data

Tensors of order three or higher have found applications in diverse fields, including image and signal processing, data mining, biomedical engineering and link analysis, to name a few. In many applications that involve for example time series or other ordered data, the corresponding tensor has a distinguishing orientation that exhibits a low tubal structure. This has motivated the introduction of the tubal rank and the corresponding tubal singular value decomposition in the literature. In this work, we develop randomized algorithms for many common tensor operations, including tensor low-rank approximation and decomposition, together with tensor multiplication. The proposed tubal focused algorithms employ a small number of lateral and/or horizontal slices of the underlying 3-rd order tensor, that come with {\em relative error guarantees} for the quality of the obtained solutions. The performance of the proposed algorithms is illustrated on diverse imaging applications, including mass spectrometry data and image and video recovery from incomplete and noisy data. The results show both good computational speed-up vis-a-vis conventional completion algorithms and good accuracy.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2018

Likelihood Inference for Large Scale Stochastic Blockmodels with Covariates based on a Divide-and-Conquer Parallelizable Algorithm with Communication

We consider a stochastic blockmodel equipped with node covariate information, that is helpful in analyzing social network data. The key objective is to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. For this task, we devise a fast, scalable Monte Carlo EM type algorithm based on case-control approximation of the log-likelihood coupled with a subsampling approach. A key feature of the proposed algorithm is its parallelizability, by processing portions of the data on several cores, while leveraging communication of key statistics across the cores during each iteration of the algorithm. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated on synthetic data sets and compared with competing methods for blockmodel parameter estimation. We also illustrate the model on data from a Facebook derived social network enhanced with node covariate information.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2018

Finite Time Adaptive Stabilization of LQ Systems

Stabilization of linear systems with unknown dynamics is a canonical problem in adaptive control. Since the lack of knowledge of system parameters can cause it to become destabilized, an adaptive stabilization procedure is needed prior to regulation. Therefore, the adaptive stabilization needs to be completed in finite time. In order to achieve this goal, asymptotic approaches are not very helpful. There are only a few existing non-asymptotic results and a full treatment of the problem is not currently available. In this work, leveraging the novel method of random linear feedbacks, we establish high probability guarantees for finite time stabilization. Our results hold for remarkably general settings because we carefully choose a minimal set of assumptions. These include stabilizability of the underlying system and restricting the degree of heaviness of the noise distribution. To derive our results, we also introduce a number of new concepts and technical tools to address regularity and instability of the closed-loop matrix.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Sequential change-point detection in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models

High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in offline detection and estimation of regime changes in the topology of sparse graphical models. However, the online setting remains largely unexplored, despite its high relevance to applications in sensor networks and other engineering monitoring systems, as well as financial markets. To that end, this work introduces a novel scalable online algorithm for detecting an unknown number of abrupt changes in the inverse covariance matrix of sparse Gaussian graphical models with small delay. The proposed algorithm is based upon monitoring the conditional log-likelihood of all nodes in the network and can be extended to a large class of continuous and discrete graphical models. We also investigate asymptotic properties of our procedure under certain mild regularity conditions on the graph size, sparsity level, number of samples, and pre- and post-changes in the topology of the network. Numerical works on both synthetic and real data illustrate the good performance of the proposed methodology both in terms of computational and statistical efficiency across numerous experimental settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Finite Time Identification in Unstable Linear Systems

Identification of the parameters of stable linear dynamical systems is a well-studied problem in the literature, both in the low and high-dimensional settings. However, there are hardly any results for the unstable case, especially regarding finite time bounds. For this setting, classical results on least-squares estimation of the dynamics parameters are not applicable and therefore new concepts and technical approaches need to be developed to address the issue. Unstable linear systems arise in key real applications in control theory, econometrics, and finance. This study establishes finite time bounds for the identification error of the least-squares estimates for a fairly large class of heavy-tailed noise distributions, and transition matrices of such systems. The results relate the time length (samples) required for estimation to a function of the problem dimension and key characteristics of the true underlying transition matrix and the noise distribution. To establish them, appropriate concentration inequalities for random matrices and for sequences of martingale differences are leveraged.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Estimation of Graphical Models through Structured Norm Minimization

Estimation of Markov Random Field and covariance models from high-dimensional data represents a canonical problem that has received a lot of attention in the literature. A key assumption, widely employed, is that of {\em sparsity} of the underlying model. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating such models exhibiting a more intricate structure comprising simultaneously of {\em sparse, structured sparse} and {\em dense} components. Such structures naturally arise in several scientific fields, including molecular biology, finance, and political science. We introduce a general framework based on a novel structured norm that enables us to estimate such complex structures from high-dimensional data. The resulting optimization problem is convex and we introduce a linearized multi-block alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm to solve it efficiently. We illustrate the superior performance of the proposed framework on a number of synthetic data sets generated from both random and structured networks. Further, we apply the method to a number of real data sets and discuss the results.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Common change point estimation in panel data from the least squares and maximum likelihood viewpoints

We establish the convergence rates and asymptotic distributions of the common break change-point estimators, obtained by least squares and maximum likelihood in panel data models and compare their asymptotic variances. Our model assumptions accommodate a variety of commonly encountered probability distributions and, in particular, models of particular interest in econometrics beyond the commonly analyzed Gaussian model, including the zero-inflated Poisson model for count data, and the probit and tobit models. We also provide novel results for time dependent data in the signal-plus-noise model, with emphasis on a wide array of noise processes, including Gaussian process, MA$(\infty)$ and $m$-dependent processes. The obtained results show that maximum likelihood estimation requires a stronger signal-to-noise model identifiability condition compared to its least squares counterpart. Finally, since there are three different asymptotic regimes that depend on the behavior of the norm difference of the model parameters before and after the change point, which cannot be realistically assumed to be known, we develop a novel data driven adaptive procedure that provides valid confidence intervals for the common break, without requiring a priori knowledge of the asymptotic regime the problem falls in.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Regularized Estimation and Testing for High-Dimensional Multi-Block Vector-Autoregressive Models

Dynamical systems comprising of multiple components that can be partitioned into distinct blocks originate in many scientific areas. A pertinent example is the interactions between financial assets and selected macroeconomic indicators, which has been studied at aggregate level---e.g. a stock index and an employment index---extensively in the macroeconomics literature. A key shortcoming of this approach is that it ignores potential influences from other related components (e.g. Gross Domestic Product) that may exert influence on the system's dynamics and structure and thus produces incorrect results. To mitigate this issue, we consider a multi-block linear dynamical system with Granger-causal ordering between blocks, wherein the blocks' temporal dynamics are described by vector autoregressive processes and are influenced by blocks higher in the system hierarchy. We derive the maximum likelihood estimator for the posited model for Gaussian data in the high-dimensional setting based on appropriate regularization schemes for the parameters of the block components. To optimize the underlying non-convex likelihood function, we develop an iterative algorithm with convergence guarantees. We establish theoretical properties of the maximum likelihood estimates, leveraging the decomposability of the regularizers and a careful analysis of the iterates. Finally, we develop testing procedures for the null hypothesis of whether a block "Granger-causes" another block of variables. The performance of the model and the testing procedures are evaluated on synthetic data, and illustrated on a data set involving log-returns of the US S&P100 component stocks and key macroeconomic variables for the 2001--16 period.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Network-Based Pathway Enrichment Analysis with Incomplete Network Information

Pathway enrichment analysis has become a key tool for biomedical researchers to gain insight into the underlying biology of differentially expressed genes, proteins and metabolites. It reduces complexity and provides a system-level view of changes in cellular activity in response to treatments and/or in disease states. Methods that use existing pathway network information have been shown to outperform simpler methods that only take into account pathway membership. However, despite significant progress in understanding the association amongst members of biological pathways, and expansion of data bases containing information about interactions of biomolecules, the existing network information may be incomplete or inaccurate, and is not cell-type or disease condition-specific. We propose a constrained network estimation framework that combines network estimation based on cell- and condition-specific high-dimensional Omics data with interaction information from existing data bases. The resulting pathway topology information is subsequently used to provide a framework for simultaneous testing of differences in expression levels of pathway members, as well as their interactions. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed network estimator and the test for pathway enrichment, and investigate its small sample performance in simulated and real data settings.

stat.ME↗