arXiv subjects

George Profitiliotis

Publications and source records attributed to George Profitiliotis.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Allure of Complete Discovery as Passage: Broadening the Range of SETI Research Ideas via Futures Literacy and Triple-Loop Learning

This paper argues that, although it principally refers to extraterrestrial rather than human affairs, SETI's imaginary is a social imaginary proper, as it is implicitly linked in an intrinsic, non-trivial, co-constitutive way to a social imaginary of humanity's future. Specifically, SETI's imaginary is an imaginary of a society of sapient extraterrestrials that makes possible the achievement of a desirable future of humanity through the former's discovery by the latter. Moreover, it argues that the range of SETI research ideas, which get bundled in non-fictional conviction narratives promising SETI's imaginary, is currently limited because actualizing this desirable future state of humanity after such a discovery relies on a "complete discovery". Finally, an intervention is offered in the form of a hands-on workshop for SETI scientists, which could help them reveal, reframe, and rethink the role that this imaginary for a desirable "post-discovery" future of humanity plays in their present research ideas.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Projections of Earth's Technosphere: Civilization Collapse-Recovery Dynamics and Detectability

How long a technological civilization remains active, and what determines whether it collapses or persists, is a central question for both projecting humanity's future and assessing the prevalence of detectable intelligence in the galaxy. We model collapse-recovery dynamics across ten plausible futures for Earth-originating civilization using a hybrid deterministic-stochastic simulation over a 1000-year window. The duty cycle, defined as the fraction of its total lifespan that a civilization is technologically active, ranges from ~0.38 to 1.00, with trajectory outcomes shaped by the interplay of governance structure, resource pressure, and hazard exposure. Several model parameters map onto actionable resilience levers, and modest improvements can qualitatively alter long-term trajectories. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the resource depletion rate and the post-collapse recovery fraction are consistently the most impactful levers across scenarios, suggesting that reducing resource consumption may be at least as important as mitigating existential hazards for avoiding civilizational collapse. We discuss implications for Earth's civilizational resilience and for the search for extraterrestrial technosignatures. We also derive an effective detectability duration that accounts for intermittent civilizational activity, and show that the apparent absence of extraterrestrial signals may reflect the prevalence of low-duty-cycle civilizations rather than the rarity of intelligent life.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Projections of Earth's Technosphere: Strategies for Observing Technosignatures on Terrestrial Exoplanets

The search for technosignatures--remotely detectable evidence of extraterrestrial technology--draws upon examples from the recent history of Earth as well as projections of Earth's technosphere. Facilities like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will significantly advance the feasibility of characterizing the atmospheres of habitable exoplanets at visible and near-infrared wavelengths, while other future mission concepts could extend this search to mid-infrared wavelengths. We draw upon a recently developed set of 10 self-consistent scenarios for future Earth technospheres as analogs for extraterrestrial technospheres, which we use to outline a stepwise technosignature search strategy, beginning with HWO and followed by other missions. We find that HWO could reveal elevated abundances of a CO$_2$ + NO$_2$ pair on planets with combustion and other large-scale industry, which could be observable in up to eight of the 10 scenarios. Follow-up radio observations could reveal narrowband directed transmissions, as occur in two of the scenarios. Further study involving direct detections at mid-infrared wavelengths with the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets could reveal spectral features from industry, such as the combinations of CO$_2$ + CFC-11/12 in four scenarios and CO$_2$ + CFC-11/12 + CF$_4$ in one scenario; two of these also include the N$_2$O + CH$_4$ + NH$_3$ triple from large-scale agriculture. Other mission concepts, such as a solar-gravitational-lens mission, could reveal large-scale surface features in two scenarios that would otherwise show no detectable technosignatures, while an interplanetary flyby or probe mission would be the most conclusive way to reveal the presence of technology on terrestrial exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

SETI Post-Detection Futures: Directions for Technosignature Research and Readiness

This white paper highlights the work that is needed to anticipate the challenges and societal impacts of a possible technosignature detection. We recommend practical steps to strengthen NASA's astrobiology agenda, guided by the existing interdisciplinary framework of the SETI PostDetection Hub (est. 2022) at the University of St Andrews (Elliot et al. 2023), which emphasizes comprehensive preparedness across science, society, governance, and communication. NASA can significantly enhance readiness by supporting deep interdisciplinary integration, funding SETI post-detection research infrastructure, and cultivating international collaboration. We outline six key dimensions of readiness-directed evidence-based research: cross-divisional methodologies, humanities and social sciences integration, communication, strategic foresight, and development of resilient global infrastructures.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Projections of Earth's Technosphere: Luminosity and Mass as Limits to Growth

Earth remains the only known example of a planet with technology, and future projections of Earth's trajectory provide a basis and motivation for approaching the search for extraterrestrial technospheres. Conventional approaches toward projecting Earth's technosphere include applications of the Kardashev scale, which suggest the possibility that energy-intensive civilizations may expand to harness the entire energy output available to their planet, host star, or even the entire galaxy. In this study, we argue that the Kardashev scale is better understood as a "luminosity limit" that describes the maximum capacity for a civilization to harvest luminous stellar energy across a given spatial domain, and we note that thermodynamic efficiency will always keep a luminosity-limited technosphere from actually reaching this theoretical limit. We suggest the possibility that an advanced technosphere might evolve beyond this luminosity limit to draw its energy directly from harvesting stellar mass, and we also discuss possible trajectories that could exist between Earth today and such hypothetical "stellivores." We develop a framework to describe trajectories for long-lived technospheres that optimize their growth strategies between exploration and exploitation, unlike Earth today. We note that analyses of compact accreting stars could provide ways to test the stellivore hypothesis, and we more broadly suggest an expansion of technosignature search strategies beyond those that reside exactly at the luminosity limit.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Projections of Earth's technosphere: Scenario modeling, worldbuilding, and overview of remotely detectable technosignatures

This study uses methods from futures studies to develop a set of ten self-consistent scenarios for Earth's 1000-year future, which can serve as examples for defining technosignature search strategies. We apply a novel worldbuilding pipeline that evaluates the dimensions of human needs in each scenario as a basis for defining the observable properties of the technosphere. Our scenarios include three with zero-growth stability, two that have collapsed into a stable state, one that oscillates between growth and collapse, and four that continue to grow. Only one scenario includes rapid growth that could lead to interstellar expansion. We examine absorption spectral features for a few scenarios to illustrate that nitrogen dioxide can serve as a technosignature to distinguish between present-day Earth, pre-agricultural Earth, and an industrial 1000-year future Earth. Three of our scenarios are spectrally indistinguishable from pre-agricultural Earth, even though these scenarios include expansive technospheres. Up to nine of these scenarios could represent steady-state examples that could persist for much longer timescales, and it remains possible that short-duration technospheres could be the most abundant. Our scenario set provides the basis for further systematic thinking about technosignature detection as well as for imagining a broad range of possibilities for Earth's future.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

The Future of Space Activities and Preservation on Mars: A Preliminary Policy Delphi Study

A 'planetary park' system has been suggested as a way for Mars to 'preserve' land for a multitude of purposes. These parks would represent a diverse portion of martian terrain and would be regulated to minimize human contamination and prevent excess human intervention. Such a planetary parks concept could also appeal to corporate interests as a compromise between protecting environmental interests and allowing private use of resources on Mars. This empirical study aims to help advance the core discussion of the interplay between future space activities and future preservation plans on Mars. Specifically, this work uses a particular strategic foresight method, the Policy Delphi, as a means to reveal positions on that issue and to explore alternative policy options in advance, through the collective judgment of a panel of experts. It should be noted that the goal was not strictly to promote consensus regarding the topic of interest, but to encourage structured dialogue. Consequently, the stable consensus achieved in specific areas indicated that the panel of experts foresees international cooperation on matters related to preservation plans for Mars, which, in turn, will enhance the overall international space governance. Furthermore, the panel foresees the inclusion of varying actors, both state and non-state ones, in the development of a preservation framework for Mars, especially on a national level. To this end, the panel endorses the inclusion of a diversity of values to be protected via the aforementioned framework, and suggests the advancement of broad global dialogue on this matter including academic, industrial, governmental, and public actors. The preliminary insights revealed in this work may inform relevant international discussions towards the formulation of proactive policies that will contribute to the environmental governance of future activities on Mars.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Opportunities for Technosignature Science in the Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey

Solar system exploration provides numerous possibilities for advancing technosignature science. The search for life in the solar system includes missions designed to search for evidence of biosignatures on other planetary bodies, but many missions could also attempt to search for and constrain the presence of technology within the solar system. Technosignatures and biosignatures represent complementary approaches toward searching for evidence of life in our solar neighborhood, and beyond. This report summarizes the potential technosignature opportunities within ongoing solar system exploration and the recommendations of the "Origins, Worlds, and Life" Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey. We discuss opportunities for constraining the prevalence of technosignatures within the solar system using current or future missions at negligible additional cost, and we present a preliminary assessment of gaps that may exist in the search for technosignatures within the solar system.

astro-ph.IM↗