arXiv subjects

Georgios C. Chasparis

Publications and source records attributed to Georgios C. Chasparis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Aspiration-based Perturbed Learning Automata in Weakly-Acyclic Games with Noisy Utility Measurements

Reinforcement-based learning dynamics may exhibit several limitations when applied in a distributed setup. In (repeatedly-played) multi-player/action strategic-form games, and when each player applies an independent copy of the learning dynamics, convergence to (usually desirable) pure Nash equilibria cannot be guaranteed. Prior work has only focused on a small class of games, namely potential and coordination games. Furthermore, strong convergence guarantees (i.e., almost sure convergence or weak convergence) are mostly restricted to two-player games. To address this main limitation of reinforcement-based learning in repeatedly-played strategic-form games, this paper introduces a novel payoff-based learning scheme for distributed optimization in multi-player/action strategic-form games. We present an extension of perturbed learning automata (PLA), namely aspiration-based perturbed learning automata (APLA), in which each player's probability distribution for selecting actions is reinforced both by repeated selection and an aspiration factor that captures the player's satisfaction level. We provide a stochastic stability analysis of APLA in multi-player positive-utility weakly-acyclic games under the presence of noisy observations. We provide conditions under which convergence is attained (in weak sense) to the set of pure Nash equilibria. A methodology is also derived for calculating the stochastically stable equilibria through the aspiration action functional minimization, which simplifies the derivation of stochastically stable states. Conditions can then be derived for convergence to the Pareto efficient Nash equilibria. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reinforcement-based learning scheme that provides global convergence guarantees in weakly-acyclic games and in a fully-distributed setup. A Monte-Carlo simulation study validates the derived conclusions.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Aspiration-based Perturbed Learning Automata in Games with Noisy Utility Measurements. Part A: Stochastic Stability in Non-zero-Sum Games

Reinforcement-based learning has attracted considerable attention both in modeling human behavior as well as in engineering, for designing measurement- or payoff-based optimization schemes. Such learning schemes exhibit several advantages, especially in relation to filtering out noisy observations. However, they may exhibit several limitations when applied in a distributed setup. In multi-player weakly-acyclic games, and when each player applies an independent copy of the learning dynamics, convergence to (usually desirable) pure Nash equilibria cannot be guaranteed. Prior work has only focused on a small class of games, namely potential and coordination games. To address this main limitation, this paper introduces a novel payoff-based learning scheme for distributed optimization, namely aspiration-based perturbed learning automata (APLA). In this class of dynamics, and contrary to standard reinforcement-based learning schemes, each player's probability distribution for selecting actions is reinforced both by repeated selection and an aspiration factor that captures the player's satisfaction level. We provide a stochastic stability analysis of APLA in multi-player positive-utility games under the presence of noisy observations. This is the first part of the paper that characterizes stochastic stability in generic non-zero-sum games by establishing equivalence of the induced infinite-dimensional Markov chain with a finite dimensional one. In the second part, stochastic stability is further specialized to weakly acyclic games.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Causally-Guided Pairwise Transformer -- Towards Foundational Digital Twins in Process Industry

Foundational modelling of multi-dimensional time-series data in industrial systems presents a central trade-off: channel-dependent (CD) models capture specific cross-variable dynamics but lack robustness and adaptability as model layers are commonly bound to the data dimensionality of the tackled use-case, while channel-independent (CI) models offer generality at the cost of modelling the explicit interactions crucial for system-level predictive regression tasks. To resolve this, we propose the Causally-Guided Pairwise Transformer (CGPT), a novel architecture that integrates a known causal graph as an inductive bias. The core of CGPT is built around a pairwise modeling paradigm, tackling the CD/CI conflict by decomposing the multidimensional data into pairs. The model uses channel-agnostic learnable layers where all parameter dimensions are independent of the number of variables. CGPT enforces a CD information flow at the pair-level and CI-like generalization across pairs. This approach disentangles complex system dynamics and results in a highly flexible architecture that ensures scalability and any-variate adaptability. We validate CGPT on a suite of synthetic and real-world industrial datasets on long-term and one-step forecasting tasks designed to simulate common industrial complexities. Results demonstrate that CGPT significantly outperforms both CI and CD baselines in predictive accuracy and shows competitive performance with end-to-end trained CD models while remaining agnostic to the problem dimensionality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Hourly Short Term Load Forecasting for Residential Buildings and Energy Communities

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and the weather conditions. The first goal of this paper is to investigate the performance of a large selection of different types of forecasting models in predicting the electricity load consumption within the short time horizon of a day or few hours ahead. Such forecasts may be rather useful for the energy management of individual residential buildings or small energy communities. In particular, we introduce persistence models, standard auto-regressive-based machine learning models, and more advanced deep learning models. The second goal of this paper is to introduce two alternative modeling approaches that are simpler in structure while they take into account domain specific knowledge, as compared to the previously mentioned black-box modeling techniques. In particular, we consider the persistence-based auto-regressive model (PAR) and the seasonal persistence-based regressive model (SPR), priorly introduced by the authors. In this paper, we specifically tailor these models to accommodate the generation of hourly forecasts. The introduced models and the induced comparative analysis extend prior work of the authors which was restricted to day-ahead forecasts. We observed a 15-30% increase in the prediction accuracy of the newly introduced hourly-based forecasting models over existing approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Causal Time-Series Synchronization for Multi-Dimensional Forecasting

The process industry's high expectations for Digital Twins require modeling approaches that can generalize across tasks and diverse domains with potentially different data dimensions and distributional shifts i.e., Foundational Models. Despite success in natural language processing and computer vision, transfer learning with (self-) supervised signals for pre-training general-purpose models is largely unexplored in the context of Digital Twins in the process industry due to challenges posed by multi-dimensional time-series data, lagged cause-effect dependencies, complex causal structures, and varying number of (exogenous) variables. We propose a novel channel-dependent pre-training strategy that leverages synchronized cause-effect pairs to overcome these challenges by breaking down the multi-dimensional time-series data into pairs of cause-effect variables. Our approach focuses on: (i) identifying highly lagged causal relationships using data-driven methods, (ii) synchronizing cause-effect pairs to generate training samples for channel-dependent pre-training, and (iii) evaluating the effectiveness of this approach in channel-dependent forecasting. Our experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in forecasting accuracy and generalization capability compared to traditional training methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Automated Knowledge Graph Learning in Industrial Processes

Industrial processes generate vast amounts of time series data, yet extracting meaningful relationships and insights remains challenging. This paper introduces a framework for automated knowledge graph learning from time series data, specifically tailored for industrial applications. Our framework addresses the complexities inherent in industrial datasets, transforming them into knowledge graphs that improve decision-making, process optimization, and knowledge discovery. Additionally, it employs Granger causality to identify key attributes that can inform the design of predictive models. To illustrate the practical utility of our approach, we also present a motivating use case demonstrating the benefits of our framework in a real-world industrial scenario. Further, we demonstrate how the automated conversion of time series data into knowledge graphs can identify causal influences or dependencies between important process parameters.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Safety-Driven Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for Cobots: A Sim2Real Approach

This study presents a novel methodology incorporating safety constraints into a robotic simulation during the training of deep reinforcement learning (DRL). The framework integrates specific parts of the safety requirements, such as velocity constraints, as specified by ISO 10218, directly within the DRL model that becomes a part of the robot's learning algorithm. The study then evaluated the efficiency of these safety constraints by subjecting the DRL model to various scenarios, including grasping tasks with and without obstacle avoidance. The validation process involved comprehensive simulation-based testing of the DRL model's responses to potential hazards and its compliance. Also, the performance of the system is carried out by the functional safety standards IEC 61508 to determine the safety integrity level. The study indicated a significant improvement in the safety performance of the robotic system. The proposed DRL model anticipates and mitigates hazards while maintaining operational efficiency. This study was validated in a testbed with a collaborative robotic arm with safety sensors and assessed with metrics such as the average number of safety violations, obstacle avoidance, and the number of successful grasps. The proposed approach outperforms the conventional method by a 16.5% average success rate on the tested scenarios in the simulations and 2.5% in the testbed without safety violations. The project repository is available at https://github.com/ammar-n-abbas/sim2real-ur-gym-gazebo.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Learning Paradigms and Modelling Methodologies for Digital Twins in Process Industry

Central to the digital transformation of the process industry are Digital Twins (DTs), virtual replicas of physical manufacturing systems that combine sensor data with sophisticated data-based or physics-based models, or a combination thereof, to tackle a variety of industrial-relevant tasks like process monitoring, predictive control or decision support. The backbone of a DT, i.e. the concrete modelling methodologies and architectural frameworks supporting these models, are complex, diverse and evolve fast, necessitating a thorough understanding of the latest state-of-the-art methods and trends to stay on top of a highly competitive market. From a research perspective, despite the high research interest in reviewing various aspects of DTs, structured literature reports specifically focusing on unravelling the utilized learning paradigms (e.g. self-supervised learning) for DT-creation in the process industry are a novel contribution in this field. This study aims to address these gaps by (1) systematically analyzing the modelling methodologies (e.g. Convolutional Neural Network, Encoder-Decoder, Hidden Markov Model) and paradigms (e.g. data-driven, physics-based, hybrid) used for DT-creation; (2) assessing the utilized learning strategies (e.g. supervised, unsupervised, self-supervised); (3) analyzing the type of modelling task (e.g. regression, classification, clustering); and (4) identifying the challenges and research gaps, as well as, discuss potential resolutions provided.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

AI-Powered Predictions for Electricity Load in Prosumer Communities

The flexibility in electricity consumption and production in communities of residential buildings, including those with renewable energy sources and energy storage (a.k.a., prosumers), can effectively be utilized through the advancement of short-term demand response mechanisms. It is known that flexibility can further be increased if demand response is performed at the level of communities of prosumers, since aggregated groups can better coordinate electricity consumption. However, the effectiveness of such short-term optimization is highly dependent on the accuracy of electricity load forecasts both for each building as well as for the whole community. Structural variations in the electricity load profile can be associated with different exogenous factors, such as weather conditions, calendar information and day of the week, as well as user behavior. In this paper, we review a wide range of electricity load forecasting techniques, that can provide significant assistance in optimizing load consumption in prosumer communities. We present and test artificial intelligence (AI) powered short-term load forecasting methodologies that operate with black-box time series models, such as Facebook's Prophet and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) models; season-based SARIMA and smoothing Holt-Winters models; and empirical regression-based models that utilize domain knowledge. The integration of weather forecasts into data-driven time series forecasts is also tested. Results show that the combination of persistent and regression terms (adapted to the load forecasting task) achieves the best forecast accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Hierarchical Framework for Interpretable and Probabilistic Model-Based Safe Reinforcement Learning

The difficulty of identifying the physical model of complex systems has led to exploring methods that do not rely on such complex modeling of the systems. Deep reinforcement learning has been the pioneer for solving this problem without the need for relying on the physical model of complex systems by just interacting with it. However, it uses a black-box learning approach that makes it difficult to be applied within real-world and safety-critical systems without providing explanations of the actions derived by the model. Furthermore, an open research question in deep reinforcement learning is how to focus the policy learning of critical decisions within a sparse domain. This paper proposes a novel approach for the use of deep reinforcement learning in safety-critical systems. It combines the advantages of probabilistic modeling and reinforcement learning with the added benefits of interpretability and works in collaboration and synchronization with conventional decision-making strategies. The BC-SRLA is activated in specific situations which are identified autonomously through the fused information of probabilistic model and reinforcement learning, such as abnormal conditions or when the system is near-to-failure. Further, it is initialized with a baseline policy using policy cloning to allow minimum interactions with the environment to address the challenges associated with using RL in safety-critical industries. The effectiveness of the BC-SRLA is demonstrated through a case study in maintenance applied to turbofan engines, where it shows superior performance to the prior art and other baselines.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Specialized Deep Residual Policy Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Controller for Complex and Continuous State-Action Spaces

Traditional controllers have limitations as they rely on prior knowledge about the physics of the problem, require modeling of dynamics, and struggle to adapt to abnormal situations. Deep reinforcement learning has the potential to address these problems by learning optimal control policies through exploration in an environment. For safety-critical environments, it is impractical to explore randomly, and replacing conventional controllers with black-box models is also undesirable. Also, it is expensive in continuous state and action spaces, unless the search space is constrained. To address these challenges we propose a specialized deep residual policy safe reinforcement learning with a cycle of learning approach adapted for complex and continuous state-action spaces. Residual policy learning allows learning a hybrid control architecture where the reinforcement learning agent acts in synchronous collaboration with the conventional controller. The cycle of learning initiates the policy through the expert trajectory and guides the exploration around it. Further, the specialization through the input-output hidden Markov model helps to optimize policy that lies within the region of interest (such as abnormality), where the reinforcement learning agent is required and is activated. The proposed solution is validated on the Tennessee Eastman process control.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning-based Dynamic Pinning of Parallelized Applications in Many-Core Systems

Motivated by the need for adaptive, secure and responsive scheduling in a great range of computing applications, including human-centered and time-critical applications, this paper proposes a scheduling framework that seamlessly adds resource-awareness to any parallel application. In particular, we introduce a learning-based framework for dynamic placement of parallel threads to Non-Uniform Memory Access (NUMA) architectures. Decisions are taken independently by each thread in a decentralized fashion that significantly reduces computational complexity. The advantage of the proposed learning scheme is the ability to easily incorporate any multi-objective criterion and easily adapt to performance variations during runtime. Under the multi-objective criterion of maximizing total completed instructions per second (i.e., both computational and memory-access instructions), we provide analytical guarantees with respect to the expected performance of the parallel application. We also compare the performance of the proposed scheme with the Linux operating system scheduler in an extensive set of applications, including both computationally and memory intensive ones. We have observed that performance improvement could be significant especially under limited availability of resources and under irregular memory-access patterns.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2019

Stochastic Stability of Perturbed Learning Automata in Positive-Utility Games

This paper considers a class of reinforcement-based learning (namely, perturbed learning automata) and provides a stochastic-stability analysis in repeatedly-played, positive-utility, finite strategic-form games. Prior work in this class of learning dynamics primarily analyzes asymptotic convergence through stochastic approximations, where convergence can be associated with the limit points of an ordinary-differential equation (ODE). However, analyzing global convergence through an ODE-approximation requires the existence of a Lyapunov or a potential function, which naturally restricts the analysis to a fine class of games. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces an alternative framework for analyzing asymptotic convergence that is based upon an explicit characterization of the invariant probability measure of the induced Markov chain. We further provide a methodology for computing the invariant probability measure in positive-utility games, together with an illustration in the context of coordination games.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Aspiration-based Perturbed Learning Automata

This paper introduces a novel payoff-based learning scheme for distributed optimization in repeatedly-played strategic-form games. Standard reinforcement-based learning exhibits several limitations with respect to their asymptotic stability. For example, in two-player coordination games, payoff-dominant (or efficient) Nash equilibria may not be stochastically stable. In this work, we present an extension of perturbed learning automata, namely aspiration-based perturbed learning automata (APLA) that overcomes these limitations. We provide a stochastic stability analysis of APLA in multi-player coordination games. We further show that payoff-dominant Nash equilibria are the only stochastically stable states.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

An Evolutionary Stochastic-Local-Search Framework for One-Dimensional Cutting-Stock Problems

We introduce an evolutionary stochastic-local-search (SLS) algorithm for addressing a generalized version of the so-called 1/V/D/R cutting-stock problem. Cutting-stock problems are encountered often in industrial environments and the ability to address them efficiently usually results in large economic benefits. Traditionally linear-programming-based techniques have been utilized to address such problems, however their flexibility might be limited when nonlinear constraints and objective functions are introduced. To this end, this paper proposes an evolutionary SLS algorithm for addressing one-dimensional cutting-stock problems. The contribution lies in the introduction of a flexible structural framework of the optimization that may accommodate a large family of diversification strategies including a novel parallel pattern appropriate for SLS algorithms (not necessarily restricted to cutting-stock problems). We finally demonstrate through experiments in a real-world manufacturing problem the benefit in cost reduction of the considered diversification strategies.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2017

Stochastic Stability Analysis of Perturbed Learning Automata with Constant Step-Size in Strategic-Form Games

This paper considers a class of reinforcement-learning that belongs to the family of Learning Automata and provides a stochastic-stability analysis in strategic-form games. For this class of dynamics, convergence to pure Nash equilibria has been demonstrated only for the fine class of potential games. Prior work primarily provides convergence properties of the dynamics through stochastic approximations, where the asymptotic behavior can be associated with the limit points of an ordinary-differential equation (ODE). However, analyzing global convergence through the ODE-approximation requires the existence of a Lyapunov or a potential function, which naturally restricts the applicabity of these algorithms to a fine class of games. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces an alternative framework for analyzing stochastic-stability that is based upon an explicit characterization of the (unique) invariant probability measure of the induced Markov chain.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Supervisory Output Prediction for Bilinear Systems by Reinforcement Learning

Online output prediction is an indispensable part of any model predictive control implementation, especially when simplifications of the underlying physical model have been considered and/or the operating conditions change quite often. Furthermore, the selection of an output prediction model is strongly related to the data available, while designing/altering the data collection process may not be an option. Thus, in several scenarios, selecting the most appropriate prediction model needs to be performed during runtime. To this end, this paper introduces a supervisory output prediction scheme, tailored specifically for input-output stable bilinear systems, that intends on automating the process of selecting the most appropriate prediction model during runtime. The selection process is based upon a reinforcement-learning scheme, where prediction models are selected according to their prior prediction performance. An additional selection process is concerned with appropriately partitioning the control-inputs' domain in order to also allow for switched-system approximations of the original bilinear dynamics. We show analytically that the proposed scheme converges (in probability) to the best model and partition. We finally demonstrate these properties through simulations of temperature prediction in residential buildings.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2016

Regression Models for Output Prediction of Thermal Dynamics in Buildings

Standard (black-box) regression models may not necessarily suffice for accurate identification and prediction of thermal dynamics in buildings. This is particularly apparent when either the flow rate or the inlet temperature of the thermal medium varies significantly with time. To this end, this paper analytically derives, using physical insight, and investigates linear regression models with nonlinear regressors for system identification and prediction of thermal dynamics in buildings. Comparison is performed with standard linear regression models with respect to both a) identification error, and b) prediction performance within a model-predictive-control implementation for climate control in a residential building. The implementation is performed through the EnergyPlus building simulator and demonstrates that a careful consideration of the nonlinear effects may provide significant benefits with respect to the power consumption.

eess.SY↗