arXiv subjects

Georgios Piliouras

Publications and source records attributed to Georgios Piliouras.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Multiplicative Optimism for Constant Regret in Games

We introduce Multiplicatively Optimistic Regret Matching (MORM), an uncoupled learning rule for finite general-sum games. Under simultaneous full-information self-play, every player achieves external regret $O(\sqrt n\log d)$ uniformly over all horizons, using only one-step optimism. The analysis combines a potential-based regret-matching argument with multiplicative stability and Hellinger control of strategy movement. A learning-rate safeguard additionally gives $O(\sqrt{T\log d})$ regret in the face of adversarial utilities.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Natural Invariant Measures for Chaotic Game Dynamics: Finding Order in Chaos

We study the long-term behavior of the Multiplicative Weights Update (MWU) algorithm in game settings where learning dynamics frequently fail to converge to Nash equilibria and instead exhibit Li-Yorke chaos. While such chaos precludes the prediction of specific long-term strategy profiles, it does not imply a lack of statistical structure. We demonstrate that natural invariant measures - a fundamental concept from ergodic theory - provide the rigorous framework necessary to find order within this chaos. Focusing on a two-strategy congestion game, we prove that these measures allow for a comprehensive statistical characterization of the dynamics. Crucially, we show that this framework extends beyond simple strategy frequencies to \emph{general observables}, enabling the precise calculation of long-term time averages for broad classes of economic metrics - including payoffs, social cost, and regret - despite chaos. Our results reveal that this simple learning algorithm captures the full spectrum of behaviors found in one-dimensional dynamical systems, from unique or multiple absolutely continuous invariant measures to complex periodic attractors as well as coexisting chaotic and stable (periodic) behaviors. By bridging game theory and dynamical systems, we show that statistical predictability is attainable even in the absence of pointwise convergence.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

Avoiding Obfuscation with Prover-Estimator Debate

Training powerful AI systems to exhibit desired behaviors hinges on the ability to provide accurate human supervision on increasingly complex tasks. A promising approach to this problem is to amplify human judgement by leveraging the power of two competing AIs in a debate about the correct solution to a given problem. Prior theoretical work has provided a complexity-theoretic formalization of AI debate, and posed the problem of designing protocols for AI debate that guarantee the correctness of human judgements for as complex a class of problems as possible. Recursive debates, in which debaters decompose a complex problem into simpler subproblems, hold promise for growing the class of problems that can be accurately judged in a debate. However, existing protocols for recursive debate run into the obfuscated arguments problem: a dishonest debater can use a computationally efficient strategy that forces an honest opponent to solve a computationally intractable problem to win. We mitigate this problem with a new recursive debate protocol that, under certain stability assumptions, ensures that an honest debater can win with a strategy requiring computational efficiency comparable to their opponent.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Paradoxes of Game Theoretic Equilibria and Price of Anarchy

For decades, static solution concepts (Nash, Correlated, and Coarse Correlated Equilibria) and the Price of Anarchy (PoA) have formed the bedrock of algorithmic game theory, with no-regret learning proving fast convergence to such game-theoretic equilibria. We show that reducing multi-agent learning to static equilibrium and black-box regret analysis obscures underlying dynamic disequilibrium and game theoretic bounds. First, interior Nash equilibria lack $C^1$ vector field information, meaning agents cannot distinguish aligned from strictly opposing incentives. Inheriting this geometry, the worst-case pure Nash equilibria dictating robust PoA bounds manifest as topologically unstable strict saddles, and in canonical congestion games, as global repellers supported on almost everywhere strictly dominated strategies. Anchoring efficiency guarantees to these unstable states causes algebraic sensitivity; we prove that accommodating all strictly positive affine costs renders the PoA unbounded. Furthermore, projecting learning trajectories onto the discrete simplex of correlated play systematically accommodates non-rationalizable behavior. Evaluating dynamics via Coarse Correlated Equilibria or proximal refinements fails to preclude strictly dominated strategies. Moreover, optimal $O(1/T)$ swap-regret minimization does not preclude macroscopic turbulence, manifesting as chaotic limit sets even in minimal games. Finally, we examine the non-atomic limit of congestion games. Though considered highly stable with tight sub-linear $Θ(p/\ln p)$ PoA bounds (where $p$ is the polynomial degree), we prove that under discrete-time learning, the unique equilibrium destabilizes into Li-Yorke chaos and global attractors whose time-averaged inefficiency degrades exponentially as $2^p$. These results necessitate re-evaluating worst-case equilibrium frameworks for dynamically grounded metrics.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Strange bifurcation diagrams

We investigate a family of one dimensional maps for which the bifurcation diagram looks differently than the usual ones. We describe and exemplify various unique and interesting phenomena arising for this family of maps.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

When and Why is Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Slow? The Geometry of Energy Dissipation

This paper studies the convergence of the Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Update algorithm (OMWU) in two player zero-sum games. Recent works have identified instances on which the last-iterate of OMWU can converge arbitrarily slowly, but understanding when and why this slow convergence occurs has remained open. In this work, we develop a new analysis framework that gives sharp, quantitative explanations for this behavior. Our analysis is based on viewing the algorithm's dual iterates as an optimistic skew-gradient descent with respect to an energy function. We prove over the dual iterates that energy is dissipative, and by establishing tight bounds on the magnitude of dissipation, our analysis quantifies the geometric bottlenecks that arise when the corresponding primal iterates are close to the simplex boundary. This further translates into a new linear last-iterate convergence rate in KL divergence on games with a unique and interior Nash equilibrium. Compared to prior work, this new rate contains a much sharper dependence on game-specific constants, and we prove this dependence is optimal. Moreover, these geometric insights further translate into new separations on uniform convergence rates for OMWU. On the one hand, we prove constant lower bounds on the uniform best-iterate convergence rate in KL divergence and total variation distance from Nash. On the other hand, we establish for the $2\times 2$ setting a new ${\widetilde O}(T^{-1/2})$ best-iterate rate in duality gap, improving substantially over prior work. Together, this shows in general that uniform convergence rate guarantees do not transfer across different measures of distance to Nash.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

On the Complexity of Learning Nash Equilibria

We know that the Nash equilibria of a game cannot be computed efficiently unless $P = PPAD$. But can they be learned? Are there dynamics that (1) can be computed efficiently by the players at each strategy profile and (2) are guaranteed to converge to the Nash equilibria? This is a question as ancient as the Nash equilibrium itself, and antedates by many decades current complexity considerations about it. It was recently proved in MPPS23 that no such dynamics can exist in general; however, the game used in that proof is degenerate, and a strong assumption of uniform convergence to a continuum of Nash equilibria is employed. We point out that both assumptions are necessary for that proof, because Nash-convergent dynamics do exist, which converge to all Nash equilibria in non-degenerate games; in fact we describe two very different families of such dynamics. However, we show that both of these families are intractable to compute locally, unless complexity classes collapse. We formulate a complexity theoretic Impossibility Conjecture: if a locally tractable Nash-convergent dynamic exists then $P=PPAD$. This is a novel kind of conjecture, combining topology and complexity, because the dynamic is only required to be tractable locally -- it could take exponentially many steps to converge, so long as the work done at each step is polynomial. Next, we show that any locally tractable dynamic which possesses a locally tractable Lyapunov function cannot exist unless $PPAD = CLS$. Finally, for the most general impossibility conjecture, we provide a complexity-theoretic explanation why it may be difficult to settle: we introduce a Proving Game to demonstrate that black-box reductions cannot distinguish between convergent and non-convergent dynamics in polynomial time.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Deep Incentive Design with Differentiable Equilibrium Blocks

Automated design of multi-agent interactions with desirable equilibrium outcomes is inherently difficult due to the computational hardness, non-uniqueness, and instability of the resulting equilibria. In this work, we propose the use of game-agnostic differentiable equilibrium blocks (DEBs) as modules in a novel, differentiable framework to address a wide variety of incentive design problems from economics and computer science. We call this framework deep incentive design (DID). To validate our approach, we examine three diverse, challenging incentive design tasks: contract design, machine scheduling, and inverse equilibrium problems. For each task, we train a single neural network using a unified pipeline and DEB. This architecture solves the full distribution of problem instances, parameterized by a context, handling all games across a wide range of scales (from two to sixteen actions per player).

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Debate is efficient with your time

AI safety via debate uses two competing models to help a human judge verify complex computational tasks. Previous work has established what problems debate can solve in principle, but has not analysed the practical cost of human oversight: how many queries must the judge make to the debate transcript? We introduce Debate Query Complexity}(DQC), the minimum number of bits a verifier must inspect to correctly decide a debate. Surprisingly, we find that PSPACE/poly (the class of problems which debate can efficiently decide) is precisely the class of functions decidable with O(log n) queries. This characterisation shows that debate is remarkably query-efficient: even for highly complex problems, logarithmic oversight suffices. We also establish that functions depending on all their input bits require Omega(log n) queries, and that any function computable by a circuit of size s satisfies DQC(f) <= log(s) + 3. Interestingly, this last result implies that proving DQC lower bounds of log(n) + 6 for languages in P would yield new circuit lower bounds, connecting debate query complexity to central questions in circuit complexity.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Tight Inapproximability for Welfare-Maximizing Autobidding Equilibria

We examine the complexity of computing welfare- and revenue-maximizing equilibria in autobidding second-price auctions subject to return-on-spend (RoS) constraints. We show that computing an autobidding equilibrium that approximates the welfare-optimal one within a factor of $2 - ε$ is NP-hard for any constant $ε> 0$. Moreover, deciding whether there exists an autobidding equilibrium that attains a $1/2 + ε$ fraction of the optimal welfare -- unfettered by equilibrium constraints -- is NP-hard for any constant $ε> 0$. This hardness result is tight in view of the fact that the price of anarchy (PoA) is at most $2$, and shows that deciding whether a non-trivial autobidding equilibrium exists -- one that is even marginally better than the worst-case guarantee -- is intractable. For revenue, we establish a stronger logarithmic inapproximability, while under the projection games conjecture, our reduction rules out even a polynomial approximation factor. These results significantly strengthen the APX-hardness of Li and Tang (AAAI '24). Furthermore, we refine our reduction in the presence of ML advice concerning the buyers' valuations, revealing again a close connection between the inapproximability threshold and PoA bounds. Finally, we examine relaxed notions of equilibrium attained by simple learning algorithms, establishing constant inapproximability for both revenue and welfare.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Chaos in Autobidding Auctions

As autobidding systems increasingly dominate online advertising auctions, characterizing their long-term dynamical behavior is brought to the fore. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of autobidders who optimize value subject to a return-on-spend (RoS) constraint under uniform bid scaling. Our main set of results show that simple autobidding dynamics can exhibit formally chaotic behavior. This significantly strengthens the recent results of Leme, Piliouras, Schneider, Spendlove, and Zuo (EC '24) that went as far as quasiperiodicity. Our proof proceeds by establishing that autobidding dynamics can simulate -- up to an arbitrarily small error -- a broad class of continuous-time nonlinear dynamical systems. This class contains as a special case Chua's circuit, a classic chaotic system renowned for its iconic double scroll attractor. Our reduction develops several modular gadgets, which we anticipate will find other applications going forward. Moreover, in discrete time, we show that different incarnations of mirror descent can exhibit Li-Yorke chaos, topological transitivity, and sensitivity to initial conditions, connecting along the way those dynamics to classic dynamical systems such as the logistic map and the Ricker population model. Taken together, our results reveal that the long-term behavior of ostensibly simple second-price autobidding auctions can be inherently unpredictable and complex.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Optimism Without Regularization: Constant Regret in Zero-Sum Games

This paper studies the optimistic variant of Fictitious Play for learning in two-player zero-sum games. While it is known that Optimistic FTRL -- a regularized algorithm with a bounded stepsize parameter -- obtains constant regret in this setting, we show for the first time that similar, optimal rates are also achievable without regularization: we prove for two-strategy games that Optimistic Fictitious Play (using any tiebreaking rule) obtains only constant regret, providing surprising new evidence on the ability of non-no-regret algorithms for fast learning in games. Our proof technique leverages a geometric view of Optimistic Fictitious Play in the dual space of payoff vectors, where we show a certain energy function of the iterates remains bounded over time. Additionally, we also prove a regret lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{T})$ for Alternating Fictitious Play. In the unregularized regime, this separates the ability of optimism and alternation in achieving $o(\sqrt{T})$ regret.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Charting the Shapes of Stories with Game Theory

Stories are records of our experiences and their analysis reveals insights into the nature of being human. Successful analyses are often interdisciplinary, leveraging mathematical tools to extract structure from stories and insights from structure. Historically, these tools have been restricted to one dimensional charts and dynamic social networks; however, modern AI offers the possibility of identifying more fully the plot structure, character incentives, and, importantly, counterfactual plot lines that the story could have taken but did not take. In this work, we use AI to model the structure of stories as game-theoretic objects, amenable to quantitative analysis. This allows us to not only interrogate each character's decision making, but also possibly peer into the original author's conception of the characters' world. We demonstrate our proposed technique on Shakespeare's famous Romeo and Juliet. We conclude with a discussion of how our analysis could be replicated in broader contexts, including real-life scenarios.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Cautious Optimism: A Meta-Algorithm for Near-Constant Regret in General Games

We introduce Cautious Optimism, a framework for substantially faster regularized learning in general games. Cautious Optimism, as a variant of Optimism, adaptively controls the learning pace in a dynamic, non-monotone manner to accelerate no-regret learning dynamics. Cautious Optimism takes as input any instance of Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) and outputs an accelerated no-regret learning algorithm (COFTRL) by pacing the underlying FTRL with minimal computational overhead. Importantly, it retains uncoupledness, that is, learners do not need to know other players' utilities. Cautious Optimistic FTRL (COFTRL) achieves near-optimal $O_T(\log T)$ regret in diverse self-play (mixing and matching regularizers) while preserving the optimal $O_T(\sqrt{T})$ regret in adversarial scenarios. In contrast to prior works (e.g., Syrgkanis et al. [2015], Daskalakis et al. [2021]), our analysis does not rely on monotonic step sizes, showcasing a novel route for fast learning in general games. Moreover, instances of COFTRL achieve new state-of-the-art regret minimization guarantees in general convex games, exponentially improving the dependence on the dimension of the action space $d$ over previous works [Farina et al., 2022a].

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Plasticity as the Mirror of Empowerment

Agents are minimally entities that are influenced by their past observations and act to influence future observations. This latter capacity is captured by empowerment, which has served as a vital framing concept across artificial intelligence and cognitive science. This former capacity, however, is equally foundational: In what ways, and to what extent, can an agent be influenced by what it observes? In this paper, we ground this concept in a universal agent-centric measure that we refer to as plasticity, and reveal a fundamental connection to empowerment. Following a set of desiderata on a suitable definition, we define plasticity using a new information-theoretic quantity we call the generalized directed information. We show that this new quantity strictly generalizes the directed information introduced by Massey (1990) while preserving all of its desirable properties. Under this definition, we find that plasticity is well thought of as the mirror of empowerment: The two concepts are defined using the same measure, with only the direction of influence reversed. Our main result establishes a tension between the plasticity and empowerment of an agent, suggesting that agent design needs to be mindful of both characteristics. We explore the implications of these findings, and suggest that plasticity, empowerment, and their relationship are essential to understanding agency

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

First-order methods almost always avoid saddle points: the case of vanishing step-sizes

In a series of papers \cite{LSJR16, PP17, LPP}, it was established that some of the most commonly used first order methods almost surely (under random initializations) and with step-size being small enough, avoid strict saddle points, as long as the objective function $f$ is $C^2$ and has Lipschitz gradient. The key observation was that first order methods can be studied from a dynamical systems perspective, in which instantiations of Center-Stable manifold theorem allow for a global analysis. The results of the aforementioned papers were limited to the case where the step-size $α$ is constant, i.e., does not depend on time (and bounded from the inverse of the Lipschitz constant of the gradient of $f$). It remains an open question whether or not the results still hold when the step-size is time dependent and vanishes with time. In this paper, we resolve this question on the affirmative for gradient descent, mirror descent, manifold descent and proximal point. The main technical challenge is that the induced (from each first order method) dynamical system is time non-homogeneous and the stable manifold theorem is not applicable in its classic form. By exploiting the dynamical systems structure of the aforementioned first order methods, we are able to prove a stable manifold theorem that is applicable to time non-homogeneous dynamical systems and generalize the results in \cite{LPP} for vanishing step-sizes.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Online Multi-Agent Control with Adversarial Disturbances

Online multi-agent control problems, where many agents pursue competing and time-varying objectives, are widespread in domains such as autonomous robotics, economics, and energy systems. In these settings, robustness to adversarial disturbances is critical. In this paper, we study online control in multi-agent linear dynamical systems subject to such disturbances. In contrast to most prior work in multi-agent control, which typically assumes noiseless or stochastically perturbed dynamics, we consider an online setting where disturbances can be adversarial, and where each agent seeks to minimize its own sequence of convex losses. Under two feedback models, we analyze online gradient-based controllers with local policy updates. We prove per-agent regret bounds that are sublinear and near-optimal in the time horizon and that highlight different scalings with the number of agents. When agents' objectives are aligned, we further show that the multi-agent control problem induces a time-varying potential game for which we derive equilibrium tracking guarantees. Together, our results take a first step in bridging online control with online learning in games, establishing robust individual and collective performance guarantees in dynamic continuous-state environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Global Convergence of Multi-Agent Policy Gradient in Markov Potential Games

Potential games are arguably one of the most important and widely studied classes of normal form games. They define the archetypal setting of multi-agent coordination as all agent utilities are perfectly aligned with each other via a common potential function. Can this intuitive framework be transplanted in the setting of Markov Games? What are the similarities and differences between multi-agent coordination with and without state dependence? We present a novel definition of Markov Potential Games (MPG) that generalizes prior attempts at capturing complex stateful multi-agent coordination. Counter-intuitively, insights from normal-form potential games do not carry over as MPGs can consist of settings where state-games can be zero-sum games. In the opposite direction, Markov games where every state-game is a potential game are not necessarily MPGs. Nevertheless, MPGs showcase standard desirable properties such as the existence of deterministic Nash policies. In our main technical result, we prove fast convergence of independent policy gradient to Nash policies by adapting recent gradient dominance property arguments developed for single agent MDPs to multi-agent learning settings.

cs.LG↗