arXiv subjects

Georgios Piliouras

Publications and source records attributed to Georgios Piliouras.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Data-Scarce Identification of Game Dynamics via Sum-of-Squares Optimization

Understanding how players adjust their strategies in games, based on their experience, is a crucial tool for policymakers. It enables them to forecast the system's eventual behavior, exert control over the system, and evaluate counterfactual scenarios. The task becomes increasingly difficult when only a limited number of observations are available or difficult to acquire. In this work, we introduce the Side-Information Assisted Regression (SIAR) framework, designed to identify game dynamics in multiplayer normal-form games only using data from a short run of a single system trajectory. To enhance system recovery in the face of scarce data, we integrate side-information constraints into SIAR, which restrict the set of feasible solutions to those satisfying game-theoretic properties and common assumptions about strategic interactions. SIAR is solved using sum-of-squares (SOS) optimization, resulting in a hierarchy of approximations that provably converge to the true dynamics of the system. We showcase that the SIAR framework accurately predicts player behavior across a spectrum of normal-form games, widely-known families of game dynamics, and strong benchmarks, even if the unknown system is chaotic.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

MEV Sharing with Dynamic Extraction Rates

Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) has emerged as a new frontier in the design of blockchain systems. In this paper, we propose making the MEV extraction rate as part of the protocol design space. Our aim is to leverage this parameter to maintain a healthy balance between block producers (who need to be compensated) and users (who need to feel encouraged to transact). We follow the approach introduced by EIP-1559 and design a similar mechanism to dynamically update the MEV extraction rate with the goal of stabilizing it at a target value. We study the properties of this dynamic mechanism and show that, while convergence to the target can be guaranteed for certain parameters, instability, and even chaos, can occur in other cases. Despite these complexities, under general conditions, the system concentrates in a neighborhood of the target equilibrium implying high long-term performance. Our work establishes, the first to our knowledge, dynamic framework for the integral problem of MEV sharing between extractors and users.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Swim till You Sink: Computing the Limit of a Game

During 2023, two interesting results were proven about the limit behavior of game dynamics: First, it was shown that there is a game for which no dynamics converges to the Nash equilibria. Second, it was shown that the sink equilibria of a game adequately capture the limit behavior of natural game dynamics. These two results have created a need and opportunity to articulate a principled computational theory of the meaning of the game that is based on game dynamics. Given any game in normal form, and any prior distribution of play, we study the problem of computing the asymptotic behavior of a class of natural dynamics called the noisy replicator dynamics as a limit distribution over the sink equilibria of the game. When the prior distribution has pure strategy support, we prove this distribution can be computed efficiently, in near-linear time to the size of the best-response graph. When the distribution can be sampled -- for example, if it is the uniform distribution over all mixed strategy profiles -- we show through experiments that the limit distribution of reasonably large games can be estimated quite accurately through sampling and simulation.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Auto-bidding and Auctions in Online Advertising: A Survey

In this survey, we summarize recent developments in research fueled by the growing adoption of automated bidding strategies in online advertising. We explore the challenges and opportunities that have arisen as markets embrace this autobidding and cover a range of topics in this area, including bidding algorithms, equilibrium analysis and efficiency of common auction formats, and optimal auction design.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Complex Dynamics in Autobidding Systems

It has become the default in markets such as ad auctions for participants to bid in an auction through automated bidding agents (autobidders) which adjust bids over time to satisfy return-over-spend constraints. Despite the prominence of such systems for the internet economy, their resulting dynamical behavior is still not well understood. Although one might hope that such relatively simple systems would typically converge to the equilibria of their underlying auctions, we provide a plethora of results that show the emergence of complex behavior, such as bi-stability, periodic orbits and quasi periodicity. We empirically observe how the market structure (expressed as motifs) qualitatively affects the behavior of the dynamics. We complement it with theoretical results showing that autobidding systems can simulate both linear dynamical systems as well logical boolean gates.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Prediction Accuracy of Learning in Games : Follow-the-Regularized-Leader meets Heisenberg

We investigate the accuracy of prediction in deterministic learning dynamics of zero-sum games with random initializations, specifically focusing on observer uncertainty and its relationship to the evolution of covariances. Zero-sum games are a prominent field of interest in machine learning due to their various applications. Concurrently, the accuracy of prediction in dynamical systems from mechanics has long been a classic subject of investigation since the discovery of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. This principle employs covariance and standard deviation of particle states to measure prediction accuracy. In this study, we bring these two approaches together to analyze the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm in two-player zero-sum games. We provide growth rates of covariance information for continuous-time FTRL, as well as its two canonical discretization methods (Euler and Symplectic). A Heisenberg-type inequality is established for FTRL. Our analysis and experiments also show that employing Symplectic discretization enhances the accuracy of prediction in learning dynamics.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Approximating Nash Equilibria in Normal-Form Games via Stochastic Optimization

We propose the first loss function for approximate Nash equilibria of normal-form games that is amenable to unbiased Monte Carlo estimation. This construction allows us to deploy standard non-convex stochastic optimization techniques for approximating Nash equilibria, resulting in novel algorithms with provable guarantees. We complement our theoretical analysis with experiments demonstrating that stochastic gradient descent can outperform previous state-of-the-art approaches.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

On the Stability of Learning in Network Games with Many Players

Multi-agent learning algorithms have been shown to display complex, unstable behaviours in a wide array of games. In fact, previous works indicate that convergent behaviours are less likely to occur as the total number of agents increases. This seemingly prohibits convergence to stable strategies, such as Nash Equilibria, in games with many players. To make progress towards addressing this challenge we study the Q-Learning Dynamics, a classical model for exploration and exploitation in multi-agent learning. In particular, we study the behaviour of Q-Learning on games where interactions between agents are constrained by a network. We determine a number of sufficient conditions, depending on the game and network structure, which guarantee that agent strategies converge to a unique stable strategy, called the Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE). Crucially, these sufficient conditions are independent of the total number of agents, allowing for provable convergence in arbitrarily large games. Next, we compare the learned QRE to the underlying NE of the game, by showing that any QRE is an $ε$-approximate Nash Equilibrium. We first provide tight bounds on $ε$ and show how these bounds lead naturally to a centralised scheme for choosing exploration rates, which enables independent learners to learn stable approximate Nash Equilibrium strategies. We validate the method through experiments and demonstrate its effectiveness even in the presence of numerous agents and actions. Through these results, we show that independent learning dynamics may converge to approximate Nash Equilibria, even in the presence of many agents.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Visualizing 2x2 Normal-Form Games: twoxtwogame LaTeX Package

Normal-form games with two players, each with two strategies, are the most studied class of games. These so-called 2x2 games are used to model a variety of strategic interactions. They appear in game theory, economics, and artificial intelligence research. However, there lacks tools for describing and visualizing such games. This work introduces a LaTeX package for visualizing 2x2 games. This work has two goals: first, to provide high-quality tools and vector graphic visualizations, suitable for scientific publications. And second, to help promote standardization of names and representations of 2x2 games. The LaTeX package, twoxtwogame, is maintained on GitHub and mirrored on CTAN, and is available under a permissive Apache 2 license.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

NfgTransformer: Equivariant Representation Learning for Normal-form Games

Normal-form games (NFGs) are the fundamental model of strategic interaction. We study their representation using neural networks. We describe the inherent equivariance of NFGs -- any permutation of strategies describes an equivalent game -- as well as the challenges this poses for representation learning. We then propose the NfgTransformer architecture that leverages this equivariance, leading to state-of-the-art performance in a range of game-theoretic tasks including equilibrium-solving, deviation gain estimation and ranking, with a common approach to NFG representation. We show that the resulting model is interpretable and versatile, paving the way towards deep learning systems capable of game-theoretic reasoning when interacting with humans and with each other.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Approximating the Core via Iterative Coalition Sampling

The core is a central solution concept in cooperative game theory, defined as the set of feasible allocations or payments such that no subset of agents has incentive to break away and form their own subgroup or coalition. However, it has long been known that the core (and approximations, such as the least-core) are hard to compute. This limits our ability to analyze cooperative games in general, and to fully embrace cooperative game theory contributions in domains such as explainable AI (XAI), where the core can complement the Shapley values to identify influential features or instances supporting predictions by black-box models. We propose novel iterative algorithms for computing variants of the core, which avoid the computational bottleneck of many other approaches; namely solving large linear programs. As such, they scale better to very large problems as we demonstrate across different classes of cooperative games, including weighted voting games, induced subgraph games, and marginal contribution networks. We also explore our algorithms in the context of XAI, providing further evidence of the power of the core for such applications.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Neural Population Learning beyond Symmetric Zero-sum Games

We study computationally efficient methods for finding equilibria in n-player general-sum games, specifically ones that afford complex visuomotor skills. We show how existing methods would struggle in this setting, either computationally or in theory. We then introduce NeuPL-JPSRO, a neural population learning algorithm that benefits from transfer learning of skills and converges to a Coarse Correlated Equilibrium (CCE) of the game. We show empirical convergence in a suite of OpenSpiel games, validated rigorously by exact game solvers. We then deploy NeuPL-JPSRO to complex domains, where our approach enables adaptive coordination in a MuJoCo control domain and skill transfer in capture-the-flag. Our work shows that equilibrium convergent population learning can be implemented at scale and in generality, paving the way towards solving real-world games between heterogeneous players with mixed motives.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Exploiting hidden structures in non-convex games for convergence to Nash equilibrium

A wide array of modern machine learning applications - from adversarial models to multi-agent reinforcement learning - can be formulated as non-cooperative games whose Nash equilibria represent the system's desired operational states. Despite having a highly non-convex loss landscape, many cases of interest possess a latent convex structure that could potentially be leveraged to yield convergence to equilibrium. Driven by this observation, our paper proposes a flexible first-order method that successfully exploits such "hidden structures" and achieves convergence under minimal assumptions for the transformation connecting the players' control variables to the game's latent, convex-structured layer. The proposed method - which we call preconditioned hidden gradient descent (PHGD) - hinges on a judiciously chosen gradient preconditioning scheme related to natural gradient methods. Importantly, we make no separability assumptions for the game's hidden structure, and we provide explicit convergence rate guarantees for both deterministic and stochastic environments.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Scalable AI Safety via Doubly-Efficient Debate

The emergence of pre-trained AI systems with powerful capabilities across a diverse and ever-increasing set of complex domains has raised a critical challenge for AI safety as tasks can become too complicated for humans to judge directly. Irving et al. [2018] proposed a debate method in this direction with the goal of pitting the power of such AI models against each other until the problem of identifying (mis)-alignment is broken down into a manageable subtask. While the promise of this approach is clear, the original framework was based on the assumption that the honest strategy is able to simulate deterministic AI systems for an exponential number of steps, limiting its applicability. In this paper, we show how to address these challenges by designing a new set of debate protocols where the honest strategy can always succeed using a simulation of a polynomial number of steps, whilst being able to verify the alignment of stochastic AI systems, even when the dishonest strategy is allowed to use exponentially many simulation steps.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

A stochastic variant of replicator dynamics in zero-sum games and its invariant measures

We study the behavior of a stochastic variant of replicator dynamics in two-agent zero-sum games. We characterize the statistics of such systems by their invariant measures which can be shown to be entirely supported on the boundary of the space of mixed strategies. Depending on the noise strength we can furthermore characterize these invariant measures by finding accumulation of mass at specific parts of the boundary. In particular, regardless of the magnitude of noise, we show that any invariant probability measure is a convex combination of Dirac measures on pure strategy profiles, which correspond to vertices/corners of the agents' simplices. Thus, in the presence of stochastic perturbations, even in the most classic zero-sum settings, such as Matching Pennies, we observe a stark disagreement between the axiomatic prediction of Nash equilibrium and the evolutionary emergent behavior derived by an assumption of stochastically adaptive, learning agents.

math.DS↗

arXiv2023

Stability of Multi-Agent Learning: Convergence in Network Games with Many Players

The behaviour of multi-agent learning in many player games has been shown to display complex dynamics outside of restrictive examples such as network zero-sum games. In addition, it has been shown that convergent behaviour is less likely to occur as the number of players increase. To make progress in resolving this problem, we study Q-Learning dynamics and determine a sufficient condition for the dynamics to converge to a unique equilibrium in any network game. We find that this condition depends on the nature of pairwise interactions and on the network structure, but is explicitly independent of the total number of agents in the game. We evaluate this result on a number of representative network games and show that, under suitable network conditions, stable learning dynamics can be achieved with an arbitrary number of agents.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Beyond Strict Competition: Approximate Convergence of Multi Agent Q-Learning Dynamics

The behaviour of multi-agent learning in competitive settings is often considered under the restrictive assumption of a zero-sum game. Only under this strict requirement is the behaviour of learning well understood; beyond this, learning dynamics can often display non-convergent behaviours which prevent fixed-point analysis. Nonetheless, many relevant competitive games do not satisfy the zero-sum assumption. Motivated by this, we study a smooth variant of Q-Learning, a popular reinforcement learning dynamics which balances the agents' tendency to maximise their payoffs with their propensity to explore the state space. We examine this dynamic in games which are `close' to network zero-sum games and find that Q-Learning converges to a neighbourhood around a unique equilibrium. The size of the neighbourhood is determined by the `distance' to the zero-sum game, as well as the exploration rates of the agents. We complement these results by providing a method whereby, given an arbitrary network game, the `nearest' network zero-sum game can be found efficiently. As our experiments show, these guarantees are independent of whether the dynamics ultimately reach an equilibrium, or remain non-convergent.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Multiplicative Updates for Online Convex Optimization over Symmetric Cones

We study online convex optimization where the possible actions are trace-one elements in a symmetric cone, generalizing the extensively-studied experts setup and its quantum counterpart. Symmetric cones provide a unifying framework for some of the most important optimization models, including linear, second-order cone, and semidefinite optimization. Using tools from the field of Euclidean Jordan Algebras, we introduce the Symmetric-Cone Multiplicative Weights Update (SCMWU), a projection-free algorithm for online optimization over the trace-one slice of an arbitrary symmetric cone. We show that SCMWU is equivalent to Follow-the-Regularized-Leader and Online Mirror Descent with symmetric-cone negative entropy as regularizer. Using this structural result we show that SCMWU is a no-regret algorithm, and verify our theoretical results with extensive experiments. Our results unify and generalize the analysis for the Multiplicative Weights Update method over the probability simplex and the Matrix Multiplicative Weights Update method over the set of density matrices.

math.OC↗