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Georgios Piliouras

Publications and source records attributed to Georgios Piliouras.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

Poincaré-Bendixson Limit Sets in Multi-Agent Learning

A key challenge of evolutionary game theory and multi-agent learning is to characterize the limit behavior of game dynamics. Whereas convergence is often a property of learning algorithms in games satisfying a particular reward structure (e.g., zero-sum games), even basic learning models, such as the replicator dynamics, are not guaranteed to converge for general payoffs. Worse yet, chaotic behavior is possible even in rather simple games, such as variants of the Rock-Paper-Scissors game. Although chaotic behavior in learning dynamics can be precluded by the celebrated Poincaré-Bendixson theorem, it is only applicable to low-dimensional settings. Are there other characteristics of a game that can force regularity in the limit sets of learning? We show that behavior consistent with the Poincaré-Bendixson theorem (limit cycles, but no chaotic attractor) can follow purely from the topological structure of the interaction graph, even for high-dimensional settings with an arbitrary number of players and arbitrary payoff matrices. We prove our result for a wide class of follow-the-regularized leader (FoReL) dynamics, which generalize replicator dynamics, for binary games characterized interaction graphs where the payoffs of each player are only affected by one other player (i.e., interaction graphs of indegree one). Since chaos occurs already in games with only two players and three strategies, this class of non-chaotic games may be considered maximal. Moreover, we provide simple conditions under which such behavior translates into efficiency guarantees, implying that FoReL learning achieves time-averaged sum of payoffs at least as good as that of a Nash equilibrium, thereby connecting the topology of the dynamics to social-welfare analysis.

cs.GT↗

Unpredictable dynamics in congestion games: memory loss can prevent chaos

We study the dynamics of simple congestion games with two resources where a continuum of agents behaves according to a version of Experience-Weighted Attraction (EWA) algorithm. The dynamics is characterized by two parameters: the (population) intensity of choice $a>0$ capturing the economic rationality of the total population of agents and a discount factor $σ\in [0,1]$ capturing a type of memory loss where past outcomes matter exponentially less than the recent ones. Finally, our system adds a third parameter $b \in (0,1)$, which captures the asymmetry of the cost functions of the two resources. It is the proportion of the agents using the first resource at Nash equilibrium, with $b=1/2$ capturing a symmetric network. Within this simple framework, we show a plethora of bifurcation phenomena where behavioral dynamics destabilize from global convergence to equilibrium, to limit cycles or even (formally proven) chaos as a function of the parameters $a$, $b$ and $σ$. Specifically, we show that for any discount factor $σ$ the system will be destabilized for a sufficiently large intensity of choice $a$. Although for discount factor $σ=0$ almost always (i.e., $b \neq 1/2$) the system will become chaotic, as $σ$ increases the chaotic regime will give place to the attracting periodic orbit of period 2. Therefore, memory loss can simplify game dynamics and make the system predictable. We complement our theoretical analysis with simulations and several bifurcation diagrams that showcase the unyielding complexity of the population dynamics (e.g., attracting periodic orbits of different lengths) even in the simplest possible potential games.

cs.GT↗

Multi-agent Performative Prediction: From Global Stability and Optimality to Chaos

The recent framework of performative prediction is aimed at capturing settings where predictions influence the target/outcome they want to predict. In this paper, we introduce a natural multi-agent version of this framework, where multiple decision makers try to predict the same outcome. We showcase that such competition can result in interesting phenomena by proving the possibility of phase transitions from stability to instability and eventually chaos. Specifically, we present settings of multi-agent performative prediction where under sufficient conditions their dynamics lead to global stability and optimality. In the opposite direction, when the agents are not sufficiently cautious in their learning/updates rates, we show that instability and in fact formal chaos is possible. We complement our theoretical predictions with simulations showcasing the predictive power of our results.

cs.LG↗

A Blockchain-Based Approach for Collaborative Formalization of Mathematics and Programs

Formalization of mathematics is the process of digitizing mathematical knowledge, which allows for formal proof verification as well as efficient semantic searches. Given the large and ever-increasing gap between the set of formalized and unformalized mathematical knowledge, there is a clear need to encourage more computer scientists and mathematicians to solve and formalize mathematical problems together. With blockchain technology, we are able to decentralize this process, provide time-stamped verification of authorship and encourage collaboration through implementation of incentive mechanisms via smart contracts. Currently, the formalization of mathematics is done through the use of proof assistants, which can be used to verify programs and protocols as well. Furthermore, with the advancement in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning, we can apply automated AI reasoning tools in these proof assistants and (at least partially) automate the process of synthesizing proofs. In our paper, we demonstrate a blockchain-based system for collaborative formalization of mathematics and programs incorporating both human labour as well as automated AI tools. We explain how Token-Curated Registries (TCR) and smart contracts are used to ensure appropriate documents are recorded and encourage collaboration through implementation of incentive mechanisms respectively. Using an illustrative example, we show how formalized proofs of different sorting algorithms can be produced collaboratively in our proposed blockchain system.

cs.MA↗

Online Learning in Periodic Zero-Sum Games

A seminal result in game theory is von Neumann's minmax theorem, which states that zero-sum games admit an essentially unique equilibrium solution. Classical learning results build on this theorem to show that online no-regret dynamics converge to an equilibrium in a time-average sense in zero-sum games. In the past several years, a key research direction has focused on characterizing the day-to-day behavior of such dynamics. General results in this direction show that broad classes of online learning dynamics are cyclic, and formally Poincaré recurrent, in zero-sum games. We analyze the robustness of these online learning behaviors in the case of periodic zero-sum games with a time-invariant equilibrium. This model generalizes the usual repeated game formulation while also being a realistic and natural model of a repeated competition between players that depends on exogenous environmental variations such as time-of-day effects, week-to-week trends, and seasonality. Interestingly, time-average convergence may fail even in the simplest such settings, in spite of the equilibrium being fixed. In contrast, using novel analysis methods, we show that Poincaré recurrence provably generalizes despite the complex, non-autonomous nature of these dynamical systems.

cs.GT↗

Stochastic Multiplicative Weights Updates in Zero-Sum Games

We study agents competing against each other in a repeated network zero-sum game while applying the multiplicative weights update (MWU) algorithm with fixed learning rates. In our implementation, agents select their strategies probabilistically in each iteration and update their weights/strategies using the realized vector payoff of all strategies, i.e., stochastic MWU with full information. We show that the system results in an irreducible Markov chain where agent strategies diverge from the set of Nash equilibria. Further, we show that agents will play pure strategies with probability 1 in the limit.

cs.GT↗

Constants of Motion: The Antidote to Chaos in Optimization and Game Dynamics

Several recent works in online optimization and game dynamics have established strong negative complexity results including the formal emergence of instability and chaos even in small such settings, e.g., $2\times 2$ games. These results motivate the following question: Which methodological tools can guarantee the regularity of such dynamics and how can we apply them in standard settings of interest such as discrete-time first-order optimization dynamics? We show how proving the existence of invariant functions, i.e., constant of motions, is a fundamental contribution in this direction and establish a plethora of such positive results (e.g. gradient descent, multiplicative weights update, alternating gradient descent and manifold gradient descent) both in optimization as well as in game settings. At a technical level, for some conservation laws we provide an explicit and concise closed form, whereas for other ones we present non-constructive proofs using tools from dynamical systems.

math.OC↗

On the Approximability of Multistage Min-Sum Set Cover

We investigate the polynomial-time approximability of the multistage version of Min-Sum Set Cover ($\mathrm{DSSC}$), a natural and intriguing generalization of the classical List Update problem. In $\mathrm{DSSC}$, we maintain a sequence of permutations $(π^0, π^1, \ldots, π^T)$ on $n$ elements, based on a sequence of requests $(R^1, \ldots, R^T)$. We aim to minimize the total cost of updating $π^{t-1}$ to $π^{t}$, quantified by the Kendall tau distance $\mathrm{D}_{\mathrm{KT}}(π^{t-1}, π^t)$, plus the total cost of covering each request $R^t$ with the current permutation $π^t$, quantified by the position of the first element of $R^t$ in $π^t$. Using a reduction from Set Cover, we show that $\mathrm{DSSC}$ does not admit an $O(1)$-approximation, unless $\mathrm{P} = \mathrm{NP}$, and that any $o(\log n)$ (resp. $o(r)$) approximation to $\mathrm{DSSC}$ implies a sublogarithmic (resp. $o(r)$) approximation to Set Cover (resp. where each element appears at most $r$ times). Our main technical contribution is to show that $\mathrm{DSSC}$ can be approximated in polynomial-time within a factor of $O(\log^2 n)$ in general instances, by randomized rounding, and within a factor of $O(r^2)$, if all requests have cardinality at most $r$, by deterministic rounding.

cs.DS↗

A Peek into the Unobservable: Hidden States and Bayesian Inference for the Bitcoin and Ether Price Series

Conventional financial models fail to explain the economic and monetary properties of cryptocurrencies due to the latter's dual nature: their usage as financial assets on the one side and their tight connection to the underlying blockchain structure on the other. In an effort to examine both components via a unified approach, we apply a recently developed Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov (NHHM) model with an extended set of financial and blockchain specific covariates on the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) price data. Based on the observable series, the NHHM model offers a novel perspective on the underlying microstructure of the cryptocurrency market and provides insight on unobservable parameters such as the behavior of investors, traders and miners. The algorithm identifies two alternating periods (hidden states) of inherently different activity -- fundamental versus uninformed or noise traders -- in the Bitcoin ecosystem and unveils differences in both the short/long run dynamics and in the financial characteristics of the two states, such as significant explanatory variables, extreme events and varying series autocorrelation. In a somewhat unexpected result, the Bitcoin and Ether markets are found to be influenced by markedly distinct indicators despite their perceived correlation. The current approach backs earlier findings that cryptocurrencies are unlike any conventional financial asset and makes a first step towards understanding cryptocurrency markets via a more comprehensive lens.

econ.EM↗

Weighted Voting on the Blockchain: Improving Consensus in Proof of Stake Protocols

Proof of Stake (PoS) protocols rely on voting mechanisms to reach consensus on the current state. If an enhanced majority of staking nodes, also called validators, agree on a proposed block, then this block is appended to the blockchain. Yet, these protocols remain vulnerable to faults caused by validators who abstain either accidentally or maliciously. To protect against such faults while retaining the PoS selection and reward allocation schemes, we study weighted voting in validator committees. We formalize the block creation process and introduce validators' voting profiles which we update by a multiplicative weights algorithm relative to validators' voting behavior and aggregate blockchain rewards. Using this framework, we leverage weighted majority voting rules that optimize collective decision making to show, both numerically and analytically, that the consensus mechanism is more robust if validators' votes are appropriately scaled. We raise potential issues and limitations of weighted voting in trustless, decentralized networks and relate our results to the design of current PoS protocols.

cs.GT↗

Incentives in Ethereum's Hybrid Casper Protocol

We present an overview of hybrid Casper the Friendly Finality Gadget (FFG): a Proof-of-Stake checkpointing protocol overlaid onto Ethereum's Proof-of-Work blockchain. We describe its core functionalities and reward scheme, and explore its properties. Our findings indicate that Casper's implemented incentives mechanism ensures liveness, while providing safety guarantees that improve over standard Proof-of-Work protocols. Based on a minimal-impact implementation of the protocol as a smart contract on the blockchain, we discuss additional issues related to parametrisation, funding, throughput and network overhead and detect potential limitations.

cs.CR↗

Oceanic Games: Centralization Risks and Incentives in Blockchain Mining

To participate in the distributed consensus of permissionless blockchains, prospective nodes -- or miners -- provide proof of designated, costly resources. However, in contrast to the intended decentralization, current data on blockchain mining unveils increased concentration of these resources in a few major entities, typically mining pools. To study strategic considerations in this setting, we employ the concept of Oceanic Games, Milnor and Shapley (1978). Oceanic Games have been used to analyze decision making in corporate settings with small numbers of dominant players (shareholders) and large numbers of individually insignificant players, the ocean. Unlike standard equilibrium models, they focus on measuring the value (or power) per entity and per unit of resource} in a given distribution of resources. These values are viewed as strategic components in coalition formations, mergers and resource acquisitions. Considering such issues relevant to blockchain governance and long-term sustainability, we adapt oceanic games to blockchain mining and illustrate the defined concepts via examples. The application of existing results reveals incentives for individual miners to merge in order to increase the value of their resources. This offers an alternative perspective to the observed centralization and concentration of mining power. Beyond numerical simulations, we use the model to identify issues relevant to the design of future cryptocurrencies and formulate prospective research questions.

cs.GT↗

PREStO: A Systematic Framework for Blockchain Consensus Protocols

The rapid evolution of blockchain technology has brought together stakeholders from fundamentally different backgrounds. The result is a diverse ecosystem, as exemplified by the development of a wide range of different blockchain protocols. This raises questions for decision and policy makers: How do different protocols compare? What are their trade-offs? Existing efforts to survey the area reveal a fragmented terminology and the lack of a unified framework to reason about the properties of blockchain protocols. In this paper, we work towards bridging this gap. We present a five-dimensional design space with a modular structure in which protocols can be compared and understood. Based on these five axes -- Optimality, Stability, Efficiency, Robustness and Persistence -- we organize the properties of existing protocols in subcategories of increasing granularity. The result is a dynamic scheme -- termed the PREStO framework -- which aids the interaction between stakeholders of different backgrounds, including managers and investors, and which enables systematic reasoning about blockchain protocols. We illustrate its value by comparing existing protocols and identifying research challenges, hence making a first step towards understanding the blockchain ecosystem through a more comprehensive lens.

cs.CR↗

Evolutionary Dynamics and $Φ$-Regret Minimization in Games

Regret has been established as a foundational concept in online learning, and likewise has important applications in the analysis of learning dynamics in games. Regret quantifies the difference between a learner's performance against a baseline in hindsight. It is well-known that regret-minimizing algorithms converge to certain classes of equilibria in games; however, traditional forms of regret used in game theory predominantly consider baselines that permit deviations to deterministic actions or strategies. In this paper, we revisit our understanding of regret from the perspective of deviations over partitions of the full \emph{mixed} strategy space (i.e., probability distributions over pure strategies), under the lens of the previously-established $Φ$-regret framework, which provides a continuum of stronger regret measures. Importantly, $Φ$-regret enables learning agents to consider deviations from and to mixed strategies, generalizing several existing notions of regret such as external, internal, and swap regret, and thus broadening the insights gained from regret-based analysis of learning algorithms. We prove here that the well-studied evolutionary learning algorithm of replicator dynamics (RD) seamlessly minimizes the strongest possible form of $Φ$-regret in generic $2 \times 2$ games, without any modification of the underlying algorithm itself. We subsequently conduct experiments validating our theoretical results in a suite of 144 $2 \times 2$ games wherein RD exhibits a diverse set of behaviors. We conclude by providing empirical evidence of $Φ$-regret minimization by RD in some larger games, hinting at further opportunity for $Φ$-regret based study of such algorithms from both a theoretical and empirical perspective.

cs.GT↗

Exploration-Exploitation in Multi-Agent Competition: Convergence with Bounded Rationality

The interplay between exploration and exploitation in competitive multi-agent learning is still far from being well understood. Motivated by this, we study smooth Q-learning, a prototypical learning model that explicitly captures the balance between game rewards and exploration costs. We show that Q-learning always converges to the unique quantal-response equilibrium (QRE), the standard solution concept for games under bounded rationality, in weighted zero-sum polymatrix games with heterogeneous learning agents using positive exploration rates. Complementing recent results about convergence in weighted potential games, we show that fast convergence of Q-learning in competitive settings is obtained regardless of the number of agents and without any need for parameter fine-tuning. As showcased by our experiments in network zero-sum games, these theoretical results provide the necessary guarantees for an algorithmic approach to the currently open problem of equilibrium selection in competitive multi-agent settings.

cs.GT↗

From Griefing to Stability in Blockchain Mining Economies

We study a game-theoretic model of blockchain mining economies and show that griefing, a practice according to which participants harm other participants at some lesser cost to themselves, is a prevalent threat at its Nash equilibria. The proof relies on a generalization of evolutionary stability to non-homogeneous populations via griefing factors (ratios that measure network losses relative to deviator's own losses) which leads to a formal theoretical argument for the dissipation of resources, consolidation of power and high entry barriers that are currently observed in practice. A critical assumption in this type of analysis is that miners' decisions have significant influence in aggregate network outcomes (such as network hashrate). However, as networks grow larger, the miner's interaction more closely resembles a distributed production economy or Fisher market and its stability properties change. In this case, we derive a proportional response (PR) update protocol which converges to market equilibria at which griefing is irrelevant. Convergence holds for a wide range of miners risk profiles and various degrees of resource mobility between blockchains with different mining technologies. Our empirical findings in a case study with four mineable cryptocurrencies suggest that risk diversification, restricted mobility of resources (as enforced by different mining technologies) and network growth, all are contributing factors to the stability of the inherently volatile blockchain ecosystem.

cs.GT↗

Online Optimization in Games via Control Theory: Connecting Regret, Passivity and Poincaré Recurrence

We present a novel control-theoretic understanding of online optimization and learning in games, via the notion of passivity. Passivity is a fundamental concept in control theory, which abstracts energy conservation and dissipation in physical systems. It has become a standard tool in analysis of general feedback systems, to which game dynamics belong. Our starting point is to show that all continuous-time Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) dynamics, which include the well-known Replicator Dynamic, are lossless, i.e. it is passive with no energy dissipation. Interestingly, we prove that passivity implies bounded regret, connecting two fundamental primitives of control theory and online optimization. The observation of energy conservation in FTRL inspires us to present a family of lossless learning dynamics, each of which has an underlying energy function with a simple gradient structure. This family is closed under convex combination; as an immediate corollary, any convex combination of FTRL dynamics is lossless and thus has bounded regret. This allows us to extend the framework of Fox and Shamma [Games, 2013] to prove not just global asymptotic stability results for game dynamics, but Poincaré recurrence results as well. Intuitively, when a lossless game (e.g. graphical constant-sum game) is coupled with lossless learning dynamics, their feedback interconnection is also lossless, which results in a pendulum-like energy-preserving recurrent behavior, generalizing the results of Piliouras and Shamma [SODA, 2014] and Mertikopoulos, Papadimitriou and Piliouras [SODA, 2018].

cs.LG↗

Efficient Online Learning for Dynamic k-Clustering

We study dynamic clustering problems from the perspective of online learning. We consider an online learning problem, called \textit{Dynamic $k$-Clustering}, in which $k$ centers are maintained in a metric space over time (centers may change positions) such as a dynamically changing set of $r$ clients is served in the best possible way. The connection cost at round $t$ is given by the \textit{$p$-norm} of the vector consisting of the distance of each client to its closest center at round $t$, for some $p\geq 1$ or $p = \infty$. We present a \textit{$Θ\left( \min(k,r) \right)$-regret} polynomial-time online learning algorithm and show that, under some well-established computational complexity conjectures, \textit{constant-regret} cannot be achieved in polynomial-time. In addition to the efficient solution of Dynamic $k$-Clustering, our work contributes to the long line of research on combinatorial online learning.

cs.LG↗