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Geraint F. Lewis

Publications and source records attributed to Geraint F. Lewis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Harnessing stellar kinematics to constrain dark energy with the double-source-plane gravitational lens SDSS J0946+1006

SDSS J0946+1006 is an attractive target for measuring cosmological parameters through lens modelling. It is the best-studied galaxy-scale strong gravitational lens with multiple sources whose redshift separations are well-suited to constraining the dark energy equation of state. However, multi-plane lens models with free cosmological parameters risk a multi-plane mass-sheet degeneracy, although this can be lifted by a non-lensing deflector density profile tracer. We simultaneously reconstruct near-infrared and near-ultraviolet HST imaging whilst including a velocity dispersion measurement from VLT-MUSE to constrain the foreground deflector. Imaging is reconstructed faithfully regardless of whether the inferred kinematics are realistic, though we find the kinematic constraint essential for shifting the preferred cosmology into a region not in significant tension with other dark energy probes. Deflector density profile perturbations, via substructure and multipolar halo shape deformations, have only a modest effect on inferred cosmology. Combining our fiducial model with Planck CMB data yields $w=-1.01^{+0.08}_{-0.13}$; or, combined with Pantheon SNe Ia, $w=-0.99^{+0.13}_{-0.15}$. We further show that this system proves a remarkably valuable complementary probe in the $w_{0}$-$w_{a}$ plane of an evolving dark energy model, and that the DESI BAO tension with $\Lambda$CDM seen when combined with other datasets is not reproduced when combined with this lens, yielding $(w_{0}, w_{a})=(-0.87^{+0.10}_{-0.11}, -0.22^{+0.28}_{-0.25})$. The system's third source, visible with MUSE, only weakly constrains $w$CDM but may strengthen $w_{0}w_{a}$CDM constraints, though further mass-model complexity along its line of sight is required. Overall, kinematics-informed multi-plane lens modelling is a robust route to competitive dark energy constraints, even with a single system.

astro-ph.CO

AGN Reverberation Mapping with LITMUS: Fundamental Limits on lag Recovery Rates

Reverberation mapping of active galactic nuclei provides one of the most direct probes of the geometry and kinematics of the broad-line region by measuring time delays between continuum and line variability. Modern RM surveys frequently suffer difficulties with lag measurements due to poor signal to noise and aliasing, whereby multimodal lag posterior distributions arise due to seasonal gaps in our data. These challenge the reliability of commonly used fitting tools such as JAVELIN, which can return a high rate of false positives. We implement a new lag measurement package, LITMUS, and introduce a new framework that uses Bayesian evidence to identify false positive lag measurements, as well as examine the question of how many AGN present detectable lags in high redshift industrial scale surveys like OzDES and SDSS. Our analysis differs from previous RM studies in six key respects: (i) our inference is robust to the previously under-diagnosed numerical component of aliasing, (ii) we use a consistent methodology for all sources, (iii) uncertainty in the underlying AGN variability is fully marginalised, (iv) lag significance is assessed via Bayesian model comparison rather than heuristic metrics, (v) false-positive rates are quantified by comparison against random-chance recoveries and (vi) we use marginal likelihoods to distinguish between sources where a lag is not detectable in our data and sources that show no evidence of reverberation. Applied to the OzDES sample, we find that previous RM studies are likely to have overestimated the confidence of recovered lags, and we find a stark contrast between a low reverberation percentage for the MgII line (3-28% depending on assumptions) and much higher percentages in the CIV and especially the H$\beta$ line, which is consistent with 100%. We also present a re-analysed set of lags from the OzDES sample with better quantified reliabilities

astro-ph.CO

Simulation-based tension quantification of the cosmic dipole

The cosmic dipole measured in surveys of cosmologically distant sources consistently exceeds the expectation derived from the cosmic microwave background, posing a significant challenge to the standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. In the era of precision cosmology, quantifying robust tensions is constrained by our ability to model complex, non-linear effects that often result in intractable likelihood functions. In this paper, we present a flexible simulation-based inference (SBI) architecture for measuring the cosmic dipole tension using Neural Ratio Estimators (NREs). We design and train an ensemble of NREs to evaluate the log Bayesian evidence ratio and measure $N\sigma$ tension. We validate our approach against nested sampling, demonstrating that it accurately recovers the ground-truth. Under the kinematic interpretation of the dipole, we apply our approach to Planck, the NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS), the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS), and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer catalogue (CatWISE). Here, leveraging SBI, we measure a $\approx5.7\sigma$ tension between CatWISE and Planck. We demonstrate the extensibility of our approach by applying it to forward-modelled simulations of the CatWISE Eddington bias, revealing a $\approx6.7\sigma$ tension. The methodology proposed here enables robust tension quantification as we enter the era of LSST, Euclid, and the SKA.

astro-ph.CO

Microlensing of Microlensing: Effects of Random Stars on the Double-Source-Plane Gravitational Lens

Microlensing, the influence of stars within a galactic gravitational lens, has emerged as a powerful probe of compact mass and, through differential magnification, sub-parsec scale sources at cosmological distances. The recent discovery of a double-source-plane gravitational lens system in which the most distant source is a quasar offers the prospect of compound microlensing, in which quasar light rays are influenced by compact masses within the two foreground lensing galaxies. Here, we present the first numerical simulations of this "microlensing of microlensing". We consider the recently discovered "Einstein zig-zag" lens, J1721+8842, as a fiducial case, and construct microlensing magnification maps for each of the six quasar images in this system. Due to the secondary microlensing effects of the myriad of initial microimages, the resulting maps contain more complex caustic features than seen in the case of single plane microlensing. This is reflected in the expected lightcurves seen for each of the images.

astro-ph.CO

Bo\"otes III is a Tidally Disrupting Ultra-Faint Dwarf Galaxy on an Eccentric Polar Orbit

We present updated systemic properties of the ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Bo\"otes III from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S$^5$). We identify 21 high-probability members and measure a velocity dispersion of $\sigma_{v} = 1.69^{+1.03}_{-0.85}$ km s$^{-1}$, about six times smaller than the previously reported $10.7 \pm 3.5$ km s$^{-1}$, and a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] $= -2.34 \pm 0.11$. The revised dispersion brings Bo\"otes III in line with other tidally disrupting dwarfs such as Antlia II and Crater II. Orbit integrations in a Milky Way (MW) + Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) potential confirm a highly eccentric ($e \approx 0.8$), polar ($i \approx 89.5^\circ$) orbit with a recent pericentric passage $\sim 0.14$ Gyr ago at $r_{\rm peri} \approx 9.5$ kpc. Bo\"otes III is thus likely actively tidally disrupting, as its tidal radius at pericenter, $r_t \approx 164$ pc, is only $\sim 0.35$ of its half-light radius. The unusually low dispersion also implies that Bo\"otes III has either lost most of its dark matter to tides or hosts a cored inner density profile, making it a probe of the nature of dark matter. Simulated tidal streams are broadly consistent with the Styx stellar stream, though the predicted track and kinematics are sensitive to the MW halo mass, LMC mass, and solar velocity. Bo\"otes III overlaps the Typhon stream in integrals-of-motion space but has a much lower mean metallicity, suggesting the two are not the same system but may have had a common group infall origin. Sagittarius-stream contamination prevents a direct tidal-tail detection, so deep spectroscopic follow-up remains essential, both to confirm Styx as a genuine stream and to establish it as Bo\"otes III's tidal tail.

astro-ph.GA

The twin paradox in the vicinity of rotating black holes

The twin paradox is a foundational thought experiment in the special theory of relativity where a returning twin ages less than the one who remains stationary. However, the intricacies of the twin paradox remain relatively underexplored in the curved spacetimes of general relativity. Here we explore the twin paradox in the vicinity of a rotating black hole, where the existence of multiple paths between two events creates significant complexity. We develop a numerical framework based on residual maps and optimisation to identify possible trajectories. We find a strong negative correlation between a traveller's experienced proper time and both the azimuthal distance travelled and the magnitude of acceleration. We apply numerical Jacobi field analysis to examine conjugate points along geodesics within the Kerr geometry, finding that only the geodesic with the minimal azimuthal distance contains no conjugate points. This provides beginner students of general relativity with a visual tool to understand general relativistic concepts, helping to correct flat-spacetime intuitions.

gr-qc

The GALAH Survey: Neutron-Capture Elemental Abundances for 350,000 Gaia-RVS spectra and the Chemodynamics of Accreted Structures

We present a comprehensive data-driven spectroscopic analysis of 357,415 red giant stars using Gaia DR3 Radial Velocity Spectrometer (RVS) spectra (8460-8700 A; $R\approx11,500$), aimed at deriving homogenous stellar parameters and elemental abundances (collectively referred to as stellar labels). We employ The Cannon, a generative model based on 2747 giants in common with GALactic Archaeology with HERMES (GALAH) DR4, adopting GALAH labels ($R\approx28,000$) for training. The resulting model predicts 11 stellar labels for RVS giants: effective temperature ($T_{\rm eff}$), surface gravity ($\log g$), projected rotational velocity ($v\sin i$), and abundances of [Fe/H], [Ca/Fe], [Si/Fe], [Ni/Fe], [Ti/Fe], as well as the neutron-capture elements [Zr/Fe], [Ce/Fe], and [Nd/Fe]. Building on these results, we develop a probabilistic framework to chemically identify debris from the Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE) accretion event. A logistic regression classifier, optimized via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and trained on a small reference sample of GSE members and comparison stars, identifies stars with high GSE membership probabilities based solely on their chemical abundances, with the resulting candidates exhibiting distinctive abundance-ratio patterns, including [Ca/Ti], [Ti/Ce], and [Nd/Zr]. Applying independent kinematic constraints yields a robust sample of GSE candidates, demonstrating that the characteristic chemical signatures remain consistent after applying these constraints. This work demonstrates the potential of data-driven analysis techniques to extract detailed chemical information from medium-resolution spectra and establishes a framework for tracing Galactic accretion events using chemical abundances.

astro-ph.GA

The Information Content of Quasar Variability Light Curves: How Well Can we Infer Stochastic Model Parameters?

Quasar variability, driven by multi-scale physical processing within a relativistic accretion disk, is commonly modelled with stochastic time series models. The simplest of these is the Damped Random Walk (DRW), also known as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Here, we demonstrate that, when fitting such a model to quasar light curve data, the mean of the light curve, $\mu$, should not be fixed (which is the typical approach), as this leads to overconfident inferences about the variability timescale $\tau$, with substantially underestimated uncertainties. However, the short term volatility parameter $\eta$ is typically very well constrained from short light curves. Through simulations, we compute information theoretic quantities such as the conditional entropy and the mutual information, confirming that light curves provide much more information about $\eta$ than about $\tau$. As a result, we recommend that future quasar variability studies focus on $\eta$ rather than $\tau$. To demonstrate this approach, we fit a hierarchical Bayesian regression model for $\eta$ as a function of bolometric luminosity and rest wavelength to a dataset of 570 light curves measured over decades. We perform the fit using a likelihood function that uses the light curves directly, rather than using intermediate $\eta$ values from individual light curve fits. We find that volatility decreases as a function of both bolometric luminosity and rest wavelength. The volatility also decreases more steeply with redshift than time dilation alone would suggest, pointing to an increase in intrinsic volatility as quasars evolve over cosmic time.

astro-ph.GA

The Ellis and Baldwin test of the Cosmic Dipole: Exploring the impact of multiple flux density cuts

The cosmic dipole tension - the discrepancy between the Cosmic Microwave Background kinematic dipole and the matter dipole inferred from all-sky surveys poses a significant challenge to the Cosmological Principle, which dictates that the universe is homogeneous and isotropic at the largest scales. Traditional measurement of the matter dipole requires selecting an appropriate limiting flux and calculating the dipolar modulation using sources brighter than the flux. This approach, however, ignores the shape of the source luminosity function (LF) and deprives the analysis of this crucial information. In this study, we present a new approach to calculate the matter dipole by integrating the source flux distribution into the analysis. We achieve this by dividing the catalogue into disjoint flux bins and simultaneously fitting the matter dipole across them. For non-power-law LFs, this method gives a higher Bayes factor - and hence a better description of the matter dipole - as compared to the traditional approach. The method works best when the flux cuts are selected in regions where the LF's shape changes significantly. We discuss the feasibility of this method for upcoming cosmological surveys and show that it has the potential to yield decisive results at both radio and infrared wavelengths.

astro-ph.CO

Algorithmic bottlenecks in evolution: Genetic code, symbolic language, and the Great Filter hypothesis

The Great Filter hypothesis proposes that the emergence of technological societies capable of interstellar travel depends on a small number of exceptionally hard and highly improbable steps. Traditional versions of this hypothesis enumerate such "hard steps" along the trajectory from inanimate matter to complex technological societies but diverge in their explanations for why these particular steps should be so improbable. The theory of Major Evolutionary Transitions also faces challenges in identifying which steps should be considered universally "hard" across different evolutionary pathways. In contrast, we argue that two deeply structural obstacles dominate the evolutionary landscape: the coding threshold associated with the origin of genetic code, and the language threshold associated with the emergence of symbolic communication. We examine the developmental precursors of both transitions and analyze the underlying algorithmic bottlenecks: points at which evolving systems separate code from function, while entangling them within information hierarchies. Using a game-theoretic analysis of coupled signaling and coordination dynamics, we then argue that the corresponding multichannel games may exhibit saddle-type equilibria whose stable manifolds define narrow evolutionary paths, making the transitions intrinsically difficult to traverse. We conjecture that the so-called Great Filter is best understood not as a sequence of isolated improbable events, but as a nested structure of tangled information hierarchies. Under this conjecture, the rarity of advanced societies follows from the difficulty of crossing these coding thresholds in a competitive noisy environment. This hypothesis reframes the Great Filter as an algorithmic property of evolving systems, suggesting that only a small fraction of life may ever traverse the path toward technological societies capable of interstellar travel.

q-bio.PE

The Illusion of Morphology in Tidal Structures: Changes to Stellar Shells and Streams in Non-Spherical Haloes

We identify shell-like tidal structures in flattened haloes that appear stream-like under different projections. This projection dependence demonstrates how changes in the host halo directly impact the formation and classification of tidal debris, highlighting the challenges of relying solely on visual inspection. To address this, we employ our clustering-based classification framework to systematically categorise tidally disrupted satellites into stream-like and shell-like structures. Our host consists of a static three-component MW model with flattening introduced along the z-axis NFW dark halo. We consider three halo shapes: spherical q = 1, extremely oblate q = 0.5, and prolate q = 1.5. We evolve three subhalo types: a highly radial massive subhalo favouring shell formation, an eccentric orbit leading to stream formation, and an intermediate orbit. We first classify the tidal structures visually using face-on and edge-on density projections of the 3D position distribution. This reveals shell-like and stream-like formations across face-on projections, while edge-on views lead to contrary classifications in some cases. To resolve these ambiguities, we apply the classification method developed in our earlier work, analysing structures in ordered density, radial, and energy-angle space. We further investigate the spatial dispersion of stream-like structures and the rate at which core density reduces as the flattening parameter varies. Our results demonstrate that halo shape variations affect tidal debris formation and classification, as well as the spatial dispersion and core density evolution of streams. These findings offer new insights into the role of dark matter halo geometry in shaping tidal structure formation and its contribution to hierarchical galaxy formation and evolution.

astro-ph.GA

Epicyclic Density Variations in the Indus Stellar Stream

Longitudinal density fluctuations observed in stellar streams can result from gravitational interactions with massive perturbers in the Milky Way, such as dark matter subhalos. Analysing these density variations provides a powerful probe of properties (motion, mass, size, etc.) of the perturbing objects. However, caution is needed because density variations may arise naturally from internal dynamics of streams, namely epicycles. In this work, we focus on the Indus stellar stream, a remnant of an ancient dwarf satellite of the Galaxy. An Indus stream spanning $\sim 90^\circ$ is revealed in the southern Galactic sky using a comprehensive matched-filter analysis utilizing data from the Gaia mission. A spatial density model is fitted to the filtered map to quantitatively characterize the morphology, which demonstrates episodic density peaks and gaps in the stream. Through N-body simulations, we show that there are strong epicyclic motions of stars happening during tidal disruptions. The present-day longitudinal densities from simulations are comparable to the measurement from data, with similar numbers and locations of peaks and gaps, suggesting that the observed density should mainly be caused by epicycles. We also find that a cuspy dark matter halo for the Indus dwarf is likely to produce milder stellar epicyclic peaks compared to a cored halo which results in steeper peaks. This arises from different instantaneous mass loss due to distinct central mass distributions of halos, where a cored halo usually leads to severer tidal stripping. The observed density exhibits moderate peak sharpness, implying that Indus may have originally possessed a cuspy halo.

astro-ph.GA

Searching for and characterizing halo substructures with the GALAH DR4 survey

Recent studies show that the Milky Way stellar halo is composed of populations of different origins, shaped by multiple accretion events. To better understand the formation of the Milky Way and other spiral galaxies, we characterize the chemical and kinematic properties of halo substructures using GALAH DR4 and Gaia data. We apply wavelet transforms in the space of sqrt(J_r) and azimuthal action (L_z) to identify kinematic overdensities. Stars in the detected structures are analyzed in elemental abundance space to determine their origin. We further assess contamination using the unsupervised machine-learning algorithm t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), performing chemical tagging with 15 elemental abundances. We recover five structures: the Galactic disk, the Splash, Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE), Thamnos1, and Thamnos2. GSE shows two peaks; one at sqrt(J_r) ~ 25 kpc km s^-1 is due to disk contamination, while the other above sqrt(J_r) ~ 40 kpc km s^-1 represents the cleanest GSE population. Thamnos exhibits three peaks linked to Thamnos1 and Thamnos2. Thamnos2 shows higher [alpha/Fe], iron-peak elements are enhanced in the Splash, and halo groups retain a stronger r-process signature. The multiply peaked structures suggest that the splashed disk extends beyond prograde orbits. The distinct chemo-dynamical properties of the halo groups support their extragalactic origin.

astro-ph.GA

Wising up to CatWISE: using simulation-based inference to interpret the ecliptic bias and confirm the cosmic dipole excess

We apply Simulation-Based Inference ('SBI') to the cosmic dipole problem for the first time, measuring the distribution of quasar counts over the sky in the CatWISE2020 ('CatWISE') sample. We show that the quadrupole anisotropy in CatWISE can be attributed to the correlation between WISE's scanning law and photometric uncertainty in the $W1$ and $W2$ magnitudes, inducing an Eddington bias which varies with sky position. After explicitly modelling this with SBI, we use a neural likelihood estimator to find the posterior distribution for CatWISE's dipole, confirming the presence of a dipole twice as large as the CMB expectation but more seriously misaligned with the CMB direction ($\approx 3 \sigma$). We also use our learned likelihood to infer the Bayesian evidence, learning that models which increase the scale of CatWISE's photometric errors are most favoured. This is strong evidence that the sample's errors are underestimated or that there is an additional, unresolved systematic producing the same effect as Eddington bias. While our results indicate that the cosmic dipole excess is a persistent issue for $\Lambda$CDM, we showcase that SBI can untangle the subtle and complex systematic issues affecting any sample derived from real astronomical data.

astro-ph.CO

Local environmental dependence on weak-lensing shear statistics

Despite the assumption that an ideal FLRW observer is not dependent on the local environment, observations are biased by the positions of the observers due to the matter correlations in the large-scale structure (LSS) of the universe. The variation of the mass distribution of the LSS of the universe implies that observers residing in different locations may suffer bias in their measurements when they look at the images of distant galaxies. Here, we assess the influence of the local environment on weak gravitational lensing (WL) shear statistics in the context of relativistic $N$-body code, \texttt{gevolution}. We derive numerical constraints on the cosmological parameters from the WL shear angular power spectrum and comment on the local environment's influence on WL shear. We find tighter constraints on the parameter $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$ above redshift $z$ = 0.2, which implies over this redshift the local environment's impact is minor. We also investigate the bispectrum and conclude that on average the impact of the local environment on $f_{\rm NL}$ (a measure of non-Gaussianities) is minimal and consistent with zero effect. However, we find that within the assembly of all possible observers/locations, there will also be a few that could infer the parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ of the order 10. These results could thus be used to estimate the uncertainty in the inference of cosmological parameters such as $f_{\rm NL}$ based on WL shear bispectrum and thus may have implications for future surveys requiring precision at the percent level.

astro-ph.CO

Multi-band Reconstruction of Sixteen Gravitational Lens Systems using PISCO data

Next-generation surveys such as the Euclid survey, the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and the China Space Station Telescope (CSST) survey are expected to discover ~10^5 galaxy-galaxy scale strong gravitational lenses. This motivates the development of scalable and robust lens modeling approaches that can efficiently and reliably learn from wide-field survey datasets before high-resolution follow-up. We design a scalable, Bayesian, Lenstronomy-based pipeline and apply it to a sample of sixteen lens candidates observed with the Parallel Imager for Southern Cosmology Observations (PISCO) on the Magellan telescope. PISCO provides four-band imaging (z, i, r, g) with colours, depth and seeing conditions comparable to LSST. To fully exploit the constraining power of this dataset, our pipeline performs simultaneous multi-band modeling, using a common mass profile across all four bands while allowing independent light profiles in each. This approach leverages color information to provide joint constraints on the lens mass and yields reduced uncertainties compared to single-band analyses. Fifteen out of sixteen PISCO lens candidates are successfully recovered with interpretable lensing configurations, including DESJ0533-2536, the first reported hyperbolic-umbilic galaxy-galaxy scale strong lensing candidate. We further assess how much model complexity can be reliably constrained given the resolution and seeing of PISCO-like data. Overall, our results demonstrate that scalable, multi-band lens modeling of ground-based data can extract meaningful constraints on mass and source morphology, providing a practical pathway to maximize the scientific return from large samples in upcoming surveys.

astro-ph.GA

Rotational Kinematics in the Globular Cluster System of M31: Insights from Bayesian Inference

As ancient stellar systems, globular clusters (GCs) offer valuable insights into the dynamical histories of large galaxies. Previous studies of GC populations in the inner and outer regions of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31) have revealed intriguing subpopulations with distinct kinematic properties. Here, we build upon earlier studies by employing Bayesian modelling to investigate the kinematics of the combined inner and outer GC populations of M31. Given the heterogeneous nature of the data, we examine subpopulations defined by GCs' metallicity and by associations with substructure, in order to characterise possible relationships between the inner and outer GC populations. We find that lower-metallicity GCs and those linked to substructures exhibit a common, more rapid rotation, whose alignment is distinct from that of higher-metallicity and non-substructure GCs. Furthermore, the higher-metallicity GCs rotate in alignment with Andromeda's stellar disk. These pronounced kinematic differences reinforce the idea that different subgroups of GCs were accreted to M31 at distinct epochs, shedding light on the complex assembly history of the galaxy.

astro-ph.GA

Detailed Chemical Abundance Analysis of the Brightest Stars in the Turranburra and Willka Yaku Stellar Streams

We present a detailed chemical abundance analysis of the three brightest known stars from each of the Turranburra and Willka Yaku stellar streams using high-resolution Magellan/MIKE spectra. Abundances for 27 elements, ranging from carbon to dysprosium, were derived. Our results support the original classification that Turranburra, with a low average metallicity of $\mathrm{[Fe/H]=-2.45} \pm 0.07$, likely originates from a dwarf-galaxy progenitor. Willka Yaku has a low average metallicity of $\mathrm{[Fe/H]=-2.35 \pm 0.03}$ with a small scatter in the abundances, consistent with a globular cluster progenitor as suggested by previous studies. Both streams exhibit mild enhancements in neutron-capture elements, with averages of $\mathrm{[Eu II/Fe]}=$ $0.47 \pm{0.09}$ for Turranburra and $0.44 \pm{0.05}$ for Willka Yaku, consistent with enrichment from an $r$-process event. A similar enrichment is observed in other stellar streams, and we further discuss this signature as it relates to the potential enrichment histories of these two streams.

astro-ph.SR