arXiv subjects

Gerta Köster

Publications and source records attributed to Gerta Köster.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Infectious behaviour: Simulating the effects of communication and social influence on pathogen transmission in crowds

Public health measures at mass gatherings work only if people follow them, and adherence depends both on how instructions are communicated and what others do. We link these behavioural factors to pathogen transmission in a local-scale, agent-based exposure model combining pedestrian dynamics with airborne transmission. Rather than fitting a parametric behavioural model, agents draw their adherence at run time from survey respondents (2,170 attendees of UK sports and music events) who reported the same context: we vary stewards' communication effectiveness and adherence of role models, as well as agents' shared social identity with each, assuming that strong shared social identity increases their influence. In a ticket-checkpoint queue of 101 agents, effective communication combined with strong shared social identity with stewards reduces the number of highly exposed agents by 82\% for mask wearing. In contrast, strong shared social identity with non-adhering role models gives almost nine times as many highly exposed agents as with adhering role models. Physical distancing was not monotonically beneficial, because adherence changes how agents move: an infectious agent that kept distance moved along the edge of the queue, leading to similar results across conditions. Our pipeline transfers to any survey that includes behavioural measures and contextual variables.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

A study of holes: Topological analysis reveals crowd dynamics regimes in a bidirectional corridor scenario

This study harnesses topological analysis in an attempt to reveal structure in the dynamics of a crowd. Topology and in particular persistent homology characterizes relational structures in data through the number of connected components and holes, that is, a loop of pairwise connection with no connections across it. We apply this universal data analysis method to a simulated time series of individual pedestrian positions of a crowd moving through a wide corridor -- either uni- or bidirectional. We consider two pedestrians to be connected, when they are sufficiently close. This approach leads to two matrices containing the persistence signatures for the whole time series, so-called CROCKERs. Despite the high level of data abstraction, the CROCKERs' first two principal components on time-delayed positional data show a clear separation of the different parameter configurations. This holds up to symmetry. Our results support our claim that persistent homology is a useful tool to characterize crowd dynamics without introducing any prior assumptions about the detectable spatio-temporal patterns.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

On the Effect of Missing Transmission Chain Information in Agent-Based Models: Outcomes of Superspreading Events and Workplace Transmission

Agent-based models (ABMs) have emerged as distinguished tools for epidemic modeling due to their ability to capture detailed human contact patterns and can, thus, support decision-makers in times of outbreaks and epidemics. However, as a result of missing correspondingly resolved data transmission events are often modeled based on simplified assumptions. In this article, we present a framework to assess the impact of these simplifications on epidemic prediction outcomes, considering superspreading and workplace transmission events. We couple the VADERE microsimulation model with the large-scale MEmilio-ABM and compare the outcomes of four outbreak events after 10 days of simulation in a synthetic city district generated from German census data. In a restaurant superspreading event, where up to four households share tables, we observe 17.2 % more infections on day 10 after the outbreak. The difference increases to 46.0 % more infections when using the simplified initialization in a setting where only two households share tables. We observe similar outcomes (41.3 % vs. 9.3 % more infections) for two workplace settings with different mixing patterns between teams at work. In addition to the aggregated difference, we show differences in spatial dynamics and transmission trees obtained with complete or reduced outbreak information. We observe differences between simplified and fully detailed initializations that become more pronounced when the subnetworks in the outbreak setting are mixing less. In consequence and aside from classical calibration of models, the significant outcome differences should drive us to develop a more profound understanding of how and where simplified assumptions about transmission events are adequate.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Agent-based models of social behaviour and communication in evacuations: A systematic review

Most modern agent-based evacuation models involve interactions between evacuees. However, the assumed reasons for interactions and portrayal of them may be overly simple. Research from social psychology suggests that people interact and communicate with one another when evacuating and evacuee response is impacted by the way information is communicated. Thus, we conducted a systematic review of agent-based evacuation models to identify 1) how social interactions and communication approaches between agents are simulated, and 2) what key variables related to evacuation are addressed in these models. We searched Web of Science and ScienceDirect to identify articles that simulated information exchange between agents during evacuations, and social behaviour during evacuations. From the final 70 included articles, we categorised eight types of social interaction that increased in social complexity from collision avoidance to social influence based on strength of social connections with other agents. In the 17 models which simulated communication, we categorised four ways that agents communicate information: spatially through information trails or radii around agents, via social networks and via external communication. Finally, the variables either manipulated or measured in the models were categorised into the following groups: environmental condition, personal attributes of the agents, procedure, and source of information. We discuss promising directions for agent-based evacuation models to capture the effects of communication and group dynamics on evacuee behaviour. Moreover, we demonstrate how communication and group dynamics may impact the variables commonly used in agent-based evacuation models.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2022

Modelling airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a local scale

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our lives and still poses a challenge to science. Numerous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic. In particular, inhalation of aerosolised pathogens has been identified as essential for transmission. This information is crucial to slow the spread, but the individual likelihood of becoming infected in everyday situations remains uncertain. Mathematical models help estimate such risks. In this study, we propose how to model airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a local scale. In this regard, we combine microscopic crowd simulation with a new model for disease transmission. Inspired by compartmental models, we describe agents' health status as susceptible, exposed, infectious or recovered. Infectious agents exhale pathogens bound to persistent aerosols, whereas susceptible agents absorb pathogens when moving through an aerosol cloud left by the infectious agent. The transmission depends on the pathogen load of the aerosol cloud, which changes over time. We propose a 'high risk' benchmark scenario to distinguish critical from non-critical situations. Simulating indoor situations show that the new model is suitable to evaluate the risk of exposure qualitatively and, thus, enables scientists or even decision-makers to better assess the spread of COVID-19 and similar diseases.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Social distancing with the Optimal Steps Model

With the Covid-19 pandemic an urgent need to simulate social distancing arises. The Optimal Steps Model (OSM) is a pedestrian locomotion model that operationalizes an individual's need for personal space. We present new parameter values for personal space in the Optimal Steps Model to simulate social distancing in the pedestrian dynamics simulator Vadere. Our approach is pragmatic. We consider two use cases: in the first we demand that a set social distance must never be violated. In the second the social distance must be kept only on average. For each use case we conduct simulation studies in a typical bottleneck scenario and measure contact times, that is, violations of the social distance rule. We derive rules of thumb for suitable parameter choices in dependency of the desired social distance. We test the rules of thumb for the social distances 1.5m and 2.0m and observe that the new parameter values indeed lead to the desired social distancing. Thus, the rules of thumb will quickly enable Vadere users to conduct their own studies without understanding the intricacies of the OSM implementation and without extensive parameter adjustment.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Can we learn where people come from? Retracing of origins in merging situations

One crucial information for a pedestrian crowd simulation is the number of agents moving from an origin to a certain target. While this setup has a large impact on the simulation, it is in most setups challenging to find the number of agents that should be spawned at a source in the simulation. Often, number are chosen based on surveys and experience of modelers and event organizers. These approaches are important and useful but reach their limits when we want to perform real-time predictions. In this case, a static information about the inflow is not sufficient. Instead, we need a dynamic information that can be retrieved each time the prediction is started. Nowadays, sensor data such as video footage or GPS tracks of a crowd are often available. If we can estimate the number of pedestrians who stem from a certain origin from this sensor data, we can dynamically initialize the simulation. In this study, we use density heatmaps that can be derived from sensor data as input for a random forest regressor to predict the origin distributions. We study three different datasets: A simulated dataset, experimental data, and a hybrid approach with both experimental and simulated data. In the hybrid setup, the model is trained with simulated data and then tested on experimental data. The results demonstrate that the random forest model is able to predict the origin distribution based on a single density heatmap for all three configurations. This is especially promising for applying the approach on real data since there is often only a limited amount of data available.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Agent-Based Simulation of Collective Cooperation: From Experiment to Model

Simulation models of pedestrian dynamics have become an invaluable tool for evacuation planning. Typically crowds are assumed to stream unidirectionally towards a safe area. Simulated agents avoid collisions through mechanisms that belong to each individual, such as being repelled from each other by imaginary forces. But classic locomotion models fail when collective cooperation is called for, notably when an agent, say a first-aid attendant, needs to forge a path through a densely packed group. We present a controlled experiment to observe what happens when humans pass through a dense static crowd. We formulate and test hypothesis on salient phenomena. We discuss our observations in a psychological framework. We derive a model that incorporates: agents' perception and cognitive processing of a situation that needs cooperation; selection from a portfolio of behaviours, such as being cooperative; and a suitable action, such as swapping places. Agents' ability to successfully get through a dense crowd emerges as an effect of the psychological model.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2019

Vadere: An open-source simulation framework to promote interdisciplinary understanding

Pedestrian dynamics is an interdisciplinary field of research. Psychologists, sociologists, traffic engineers, physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists all strive to understand the dynamics of a moving crowd. In principle, computer simulations offer means to further this understanding. Yet, unlike for many classic dynamical systems in physics, there is no universally accepted locomotion model for crowd dynamics. On the contrary, a multitude of approaches, with very different characteristics, compete. Often only the experts in one special model type are able to assess the consequences these characteristics have on a simulation study. Therefore, scientists from all disciplines who wish to use simulations to analyze pedestrian dynamics need a tool to compare competing approaches. Developers, too, would profit from an easy way to get insight into an alternative modeling ansatz. Vadere meets this interdisciplinary demand by offering an open-source simulation framework that is lightweight in its approach and in its user interface while offering pre-implemented versions of the most widely spread models.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Can we learn where people go?

In most agent-based simulators, pedestrians navigate from origins to destinations. Consequently, destinations are essential input parameters to the simulation. While many other relevant parameters as positions, speeds and densities can be obtained from sensors, like cameras, destinations cannot be observed directly. Our research question is: Can we obtain this information from video data using machine learning methods? We use density heatmaps, which indicate the pedestrian density within a given camera cutout, as input to predict the destination distributions. For our proof of concept, we train a Random Forest predictor on an exemplary data set generated with the Vadere microscopic simulator. The scenario is a crossroad where pedestrians can head left, straight or right. In addition, we gain first insights on suitable placement of the camera. The results motivate an in-depth analysis of the methodology.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2015

Numerical Model Construction with Closed Observables

Performing analysis, optimization and control using simulations of many-particle systems is computationally demanding when no macroscopic model for the dynamics of the variables of interest is available. In case observations on the macroscopic scale can only be produced via legacy simulator code or live experiments, finding a model for these macroscopic variables is challenging. In this paper, we employ time-lagged embedding theory to construct macroscopic numerical models from output data of a black box, such as a simulator or live experiments. Since the state space variables of the constructed, coarse model are dynamically closed and observable by an observation function, we call these variables closed observables. The approach is an online-offline procedure, as model construction from observation data is performed offline and the new model can then be used in an online phase, independent of the original. We illustrate the theoretical findings with numerical models constructed from time series of a two-dimensional ordinary differential equation system, and from the density evolution of a transport-diffusion system. Applicability is demonstrated in a real-world example, where passengers leave a train and the macroscopic model for the density flow onto the platform is constructed with our approach. If only the macroscopic variables are of interest, simulation runtimes with the numerical model are three orders of magnitude lower compared to simulations with the original fine scale model. We conclude with a brief discussion of possibilities of numerical model construction in systematic upscaling, network optimization and uncertainty quantification.

math.NA↗

arXiv2015

Dynamic Stride Length Adaptation According to Utility And Personal Space

Pedestrians adjust both speed and stride length when they navigate difficult situations such as tight corners or dense crowds. They try to avoid collisions and to preserve their personal space. State-of-the-art pedestrian motion models automatically reduce speed in dense crowds simply because there is no space where the pedestrians could go. The stride length and its correct adaptation, however, are rarely considered. This leads to artefacts that impact macroscopic observation parameters such as densities in front of bottlenecks and, through this, flow. Hence modelling stride adaptation is important to increase the predictive power of pedestrian models. To achieve this we reformulate the problem as an optimisation problem on a disk around the pedestrian. Each pedestrian seeks the position that is most attractive in a sense of balanced goals between the search for targets, the need for individual space and the need to keep a distance from obstacles. The need for space is modelled according to findings from psychology defining zones around a person that, when invaded, cause unease. The result is a fully automatic adjustment that allows calibration through meaningful social parameters and that gives visually natural results with an excellent fit to measured experimental data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Gradient Navigation Model for Pedestrian Dynamics

We present a new microscopic ODE-based model for pedestrian dynamics: the Gradient Navigation Model. The model uses a superposition of gradients of distance functions to directly change the direction of the velocity vector. The velocity is then integrated to obtain the location. The approach differs fundamentally from force based models needing only three equations to derive the ODE system, as opposed to four in, e.g., the Social Force Model. Also, as a result, pedestrians are no longer subject to inertia. Several other advantages ensue: Model induced oscillations are avoided completely since no actual forces are present. The derivatives in the equations of motion are smooth and therefore allow the use of fast and accurate high order numerical integrators. At the same time, existence and uniqueness of the solution to the ODE system follow almost directly from the smoothness properties. In addition, we introduce a method to calibrate parameters by theoretical arguments based on empirically validated assumptions rather than by numerical tests. These parameters, combined with the accurate integration, yield simulation results with no collisions of pedestrians. Several empirically observed system phenomena emerge without the need to recalibrate the parameter set for each scenario: obstacle avoidance, lane formation, stop-and-go waves and congestion at bottlenecks. The density evolution in the latter is shown to be quantitatively close to controlled experiments. Likewise, we observe a dependence of the crowd velocity on the local density that compares well with benchmark fundamental diagrams.

math-ph↗