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Gesine Reinert

Publications and source records attributed to Gesine Reinert.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

On infinite covariance expansions

In this paper we provide a probabilistic representation of Lagrange's identity which we use to obtain Papathanasiou-type variance expansions of arbitrary order. Our expansions lead to generalized sequences of weights which depend on an arbitrarily chosen sequence of (non-decreasing) test functions. The expansions hold for arbitrary univariate target distribution under weak assumptions, in particular they hold for continuous and discrete distributions alike. The weights are studied under different sets of assumptions either on the test functions or on the underlying distributions. Many concrete illustrations for standard probability distributions are provided (including Pearson, Ord, Laplace, Rayleigh, Cauchy, and Levy distributions).

math.PR↗

Anomaly Detection in Networks with Application to Financial Transaction Networks

This paper is motivated by the task of detecting anomalies in networks of financial transactions, with accounts as nodes and a directed weighted edge between two nodes denoting a money transfer. The weight of the edge is the transaction amount. Examples of anomalies in networks include long paths of large transaction amounts, rings of large payments, and cliques of accounts. There are many methods available which detect such specific structures in networks. Here we introduce a method which is able to detect previously unspecified anomalies in networks. The method is based on a combination of features from network comparison and spectral analysis as well as local statistics, yielding 140 main features. We then use a simple feature sum method, as well as a random forest method, in order to classify nodes as normal or anomalous. We test the method first on synthetic networks which we generated, and second on a set of synthetic networks which were generated without the methods team having access to the ground truth. The first set of synthetic networks was split in a training set of 70 percent of the networks, and a test set of 30 percent of the networks. The resulting classifier was then applied to the second set of synthetic networks. We compare our method with Oddball, a widely used method for anomaly detection in networks, as well as to random classification. While Oddball outperforms random classification, both our feature sum method and our random forest method outperform Oddball. On the test set, the random forest outperforms feature sum, whereas on the second synthetic data set, initially feature sum tends to pick up more anomalies than random forest, with this behaviour reversing for lower-scoring anomalies. In all cases, the top 2 percent of flagged anomalies contained on average over 90 percent of the planted anomalies.

stat.AP↗

Stein-type covariance identities: Klaassen, Papathanasiou and Olkin-Shepp type bounds for arbitrary target distributions

In this paper, we present a minimal formalism for Stein operators which leads to different probabilistic representations of solutions to Stein equations. These in turn provide a wide family of Stein-Covariance identities which we put to use for revisiting the very classical topic of bounding the variance of functionals of random variables. Applying the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality yields first order upper and lower Klaassen-type variance bounds. A probabilistic representation of Lagrange's identity (i.e. Cauchy-Schwarz with remainder) leads to Papathanasiou-type variance expansions of arbitrary order. A matrix Cauchy-Schwarz inequality leads to Olkin-Shepp type covariance bounds. All results hold for univariate target distribution under very weak assumptions (in particular they hold for continuous and discrete distributions alike). Many concrete illustrations are provided.

math.PR↗

Approximating stationary distributions of fast mixing Glauber dynamics, with applications to exponential random graphs

We provide a general bound on the Wasserstein distance between two arbitrary distributions of sequences of Bernoulli random variables. The bound is in terms of a mixing quantity for the Glauber dynamics of one of the sequences, and a simple expectation of the other. The result is applied to estimate, with explicit error, expectations of functions of random vectors for some Ising models and exponential random graphs in "high temperature" regimes.

math.PR↗

A Bound on the Rate of Convergence in the Central Limit Theorem for Renewal Processes under Second Moment Conditions

A famous result in renewal theory is the Central Limit Theorem for renewal processes. As in applications usually only observations from a finite time interval are available, a bound on the Kolmogorov distance to the normal distribution is desirable. Here we provide an explicit non-uniform bound for the Renewal Central Limit Theorem based on Stein's method and track the explicit values of the constants. For this bound the inter-arrival time distribution is required to have only a second moment. As an intermediate result of independent interest we obtain explicit bounds in a non-central Berry-Essén theorem under second moment conditions.

math.PR↗

Compound Poisson approximation of subgraph counts in stochastic block models with multiple edges

We use the Stein-Chen method to obtain compound Poisson approximations for the distribution of the number of subgraphs in a generalised stochastic block model which are isomorphic to some fixed graph. This model generalises the classical stochastic block model to allow for the possibility of multiple edges between vertices. Both the cases that the fixed graph is a simple graph and that it has multiple edges are treated. The former results apply when the fixed graph is a member of the class of strictly balanced graphs and the latter results apply to a suitable generalisation of this class to graphs with multiple edges. We also consider a further generalisation of the model to pseudo-graphs, which may include self-loops as well as multiple edges, and establish a parameter regime in the multiple edge stochastic block model in which Poisson approximations are valid. The results are applied to obtain Poisson and compound Poisson approximations (in different regimes) for subgraph counts in the Poisson stochastic block model and degree corrected stochastic block model of Karrer and Newman \cite{kn11}.

math.PR↗

Bounds for the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio

In this paper we give an explicit bound on the distance to chisquare for the likelihood ratio statistic when the data are realisations of independent and identically distributed random elements. To our knowledge this is the first explicit bound which is available in the literature. The bound depends on the number of samples as well as on the dimension of the parameter space. We illustrate the bound with three examples: samples from an exponential distribution, samples from a normal distribution, and logistic regression.

math.ST↗

Alignment-Free Sequence Analysis and Applications

Genome and metagenome comparisons based on large amounts of next-generation sequencing (NGS) data pose significant challenges for alignment-based approaches due to the huge data size and the relatively short length of the reads. Alignment-free approaches based on the counts of word patterns in NGS data do not depend on the complete genome and are generally computationally efficient. Thus, they contribute significantly to genome and metagenome comparison. Recently, novel statistical approaches have been developed for the comparison of both long and shotgun sequences. These approaches have been applied to many problems including the comparison of gene regulatory regions, genome sequences, metagenomes, binning contigs in metagenomic data, identification of virus-host interactions, and detection of horizontal gene transfers. We provide an updated review of these applications and other related developments of word-count based approaches for alignment-free sequence analysis.

q-bio.QM↗

A Nonparametric Significance Test for Sampled Networks

Our work is motivated by an interest in constructing a protein-protein interaction network that captures key features associated with Parkinson's disease. While there is an abundance of subnetwork construction methods available, it is often far from obvious which subnetwork is the most suitable starting point for further investigation. We provide a method to assess whether a subnetwork constructed from a seed list (a list of nodes known to be important in the area of interest) differs significantly from a randomly generated subnetwork. The proposed method uses a Monte Carlo approach. As different seed lists can give rise to the same subnetwork, we control for redundancy by constructing a minimal seed list as the starting point for the significance test. The null model is based on random seed lists of the same length as a minimum seed list that generates the subnetwork, in this random seed list the nodes have (approximately) the same degree distribution as the nodes in the minimum seed list. We use this null model to select subnetworks which deviate significantly from random on an appropriate set of statistics and might capture useful information for a real world protein-protein interaction network.

q-bio.QM↗

Efficient method for estimating the number of communities in a network

While there exist a wide range of effective methods for community detection in networks, most of them require one to know in advance how many communities one is looking for. Here we present a method for estimating the number of communities in a network using a combination of Bayesian inference with a novel prior and an efficient Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We test the method extensively on both real and computer-generated networks, showing that it performs accurately and consistently, even in cases where groups are widely varying in size or structure.

cs.SI↗

Identifying networks with common organizational principles

Many complex systems can be represented as networks, and the problem of network comparison is becoming increasingly relevant. There are many techniques for network comparison, from simply comparing network summary statistics to sophisticated but computationally costly alignment-based approaches. Yet it remains challenging to accurately cluster networks that are of a different size and density, but hypothesized to be structurally similar. In this paper, we address this problem by introducing a new network comparison methodology that is aimed at identifying common organizational principles in networks. The methodology is simple, intuitive and applicable in a wide variety of settings ranging from the functional classification of proteins to tracking the evolution of a world trade network.

stat.ML↗

Bounds for the normal approximation of the maximum likelihood estimator

While the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator under regularity conditions is long established, this paper derives explicit bounds for the bounded Wasserstein distance between the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the normal distribution. For this task, we employ Stein's method. We focus on independent and identically distributed random variables, covering both discrete and continuous distributions as well as exponential and non-exponential families. In particular, a closed form expression of the MLE is not required. We also use a perturbation method to treat cases where the MLE has positive probability of being on the boundary of the parameter space.

math.ST↗

Estimating the number of communities in a network

Community detection, the division of a network into dense subnetworks with only sparse connections between them, has been a topic of vigorous study in recent years. However, while there exist a range of powerful and flexible methods for dividing a network into a specified number of communities, it is an open question how to determine exactly how many communities one should use. Here we describe a mathematically principled approach for finding the number of communities in a network using a maximum-likelihood method. We demonstrate the approach on a range of real-world examples with known community structure, finding that it is able to determine the number of communities correctly in every case.

cs.SI↗

Chi-square approximation by Stein's method with application to Pearson's statistic

This paper concerns the development of Stein's method for chi-square approximation and its application to problems in statistics. New bounds for the derivatives of the solution of the gamma Stein equation are obtained. These bounds involve both the shape parameter and the order of the derivative. Subsequently Stein's method for chi-square approximation is applied to bound the distributional distance between Pearson's statistic and its limiting chi-square distribution, measured using smooth test functions. In combination with the use of symmetry arguments, Stein' method yields explicit bounds on this distributional distance of order $n^{-1}$.

math.PR↗

Stein's method for comparison of univariate distributions

We propose a new general version of Stein's method for univariate distributions. In particular we propose a canonical definition of the Stein operator of a probability distribution {which is based on a linear difference or differential-type operator}. The resulting Stein identity highlights the unifying theme behind the literature on Stein's method (both for continuous and discrete distributions). Viewing the Stein operator as an operator acting on pairs of functions, we provide an extensive toolkit for distributional comparisons. Several abstract approximation theorems are provided. Our approach is illustrated for comparison of several pairs of distributions : normal vs normal, sums of independent Rademacher vs normal, normal vs Student, and maximum of random variables vs exponential, Frechet and Gumbel.

math.PR↗

Poisson approximation of subgraph counts in stochastic block models and a graphon model

Small subgraph counts can be used as summary statistics for large random graphs. We use the Stein-Chen method to derive Poisson approximations for the distribution of the number of subgraphs in the stochastic block model which are isomorphic to some fixed graph. We also obtain Poisson approximations for subgraph counts in a graphon-type generalisation of the model in which the edge probabilities are (possibly dependent) random variables supported on a subset of $[0,1]$. Our results apply when the fixed graph is a member of the class of strictly balanced graphs.

math.PR↗

Risk in a large claims insurance market with bipartite graph structure

We model the influence of sharing large exogeneous losses to the reinsurance market by a bipartite graph. Using Pareto-tailed claims and multivariate regular variation we obtain asymptotic results for the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Tail Expectation. We show that the dependence on the network structure plays a fundamental role in their asymptotic behaviour. As is well-known in a non-network setting, if the Pareto exponent is larger than 1, then for the individual agent (reinsurance company) diversification is beneficial, whereas when it is less than 1, concentration on a few objects is the better strategy. An additional aspect of this paper is the amount of uninsured losses which have to be convered by society. In the situation of networks of agents, in our setting diversification is never detrimental concerning the amount of uninsured losses. If the Pareto-tailed claims have finite mean, diversification turns out to be never detrimental, both for society and for individual agents. In contrast, if the Pareto-tailed claims have infinite mean, a conflicting situation may arise between the incentives of individual agents and the interest of some regulator to keep risk for society small. We explain the influence of the network structure on diversification effects in different network scenarios.

q-fin.RM↗

Distances between nested densities and a measure of the impact of the prior in Bayesian statistics

In this paper we propose tight upper and lower bounds for the Wasserstein distance between any two {univariate continuous distributions} with probability densities $p_1$ and $p_2$ having nested supports. These explicit bounds are expressed in terms of the derivative of the likelihood ratio $p_1/p_2$ as well as the Stein kernel $τ_1$ of $p_1$. The method of proof relies on a new variant of Stein's method which manipulates Stein operators. We give several applications of these bounds. Our main application is in Bayesian statistics : we derive explicit data-driven bounds on the Wasserstein distance between the posterior distribution based on a given prior and the no-prior posterior based uniquely on the sampling distribution. This is the first finite sample result confirming the well-known fact that with well-identified parameters and large sample sizes, reasonable choices of prior distributions will have only minor effects on posterior inferences if the data are benign.

math.PR↗