arXiv subjects

Ghislaine Gayraud

Publications and source records attributed to Ghislaine Gayraud.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Embedding Birth-Death Processes within a Dynamic Stochastic Block Model

Statistical clustering in dynamic networks aims to identify groups of nodes with similar or distinct internal connectivity patterns as the network evolves over time. While early research primarily focused on static Stochastic Block Models (SBMs), recent advancements have extended these models to handle dynamic and weighted networks, allowing for a more accurate representation of temporal variations in structure. Additional developments have introduced methods for detecting structural changes, such as shifts in community membership. However, limited attention has been paid to dynamic networks with variable population sizes, where nodes may enter or exit the network. To address this gap, we propose an extension of dynamic SBMs (dSBMs) that incorporates a birth-death process, enabling the statistical clustering of nodes in dynamic networks with evolving population sizes. This work makes three main contributions: (1) the introduction of a novel model for dSBMs with birth-death processes, (2) a framework for parameter inference and prediction of latent communities in this model, and (3) the development of an adapted Variational Expectation-Maximization (VEM) algorithm for efficient inference within this extended framework.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Test allocation based on risk of infection from first and second order contact tracing

Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an individual risk of infection based on the partial observation of the epidemic spreading on a contact network; this risk is defined as the probability of getting infected from any possible transmission chain up to length two, originating from recently detected individuals. To evaluate the performance of our method and the effects of some key parameters, we perform comparative simulated experiments using data generated by an agent-based model.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Structure learning of Bayesian networks involving cyclic structures

Many biological networks include cyclic structures. In such cases, Bayesian networks (BNs), which must be acyclic, are not sound models for structure learning. Dynamic BNs can be used but require relatively large time series data. We discuss an alternative model that embeds cyclic structures within acyclic BNs, allowing us to still use the factorization property and informative priors on network structure. We present an implementation in the linear Gaussian case, where cyclic structures are treated as multivariate nodes. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for inference, allowing us to work with posterior distribution on the space of graphs.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Hypotheses testing and posterior concentration rates for semi-Markov processes

In this paper, we adopt a nonparametric Bayesian approach and investigate the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution in continuous time and general state space semi-Markov processes. In particular, we obtain posterior concentration rates for semi-Markov kernels. For the purposes of this study, we construct robust statistical tests between Hellinger balls around semi-Markov kernels and present some specifications to particular cases, including discrete-time semi-Markov processes and finite state space Markov processes. The objective of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions on priors and semi-Markov kernels that enable us to establish posterior concentration rates.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Graph_sampler: a simple tool for fully Bayesian analyses of DAG-models

Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely used graphical models usable to draw statistical inference about Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We presented here Graph_sampler a fast free C language software for structural inference on BNs. Graph_sampler uses a fully Bayesian approach in which the marginal likelihood of the data and prior information about the network structure are considered. This new software can handle both the continuous as well discrete data and based on the data type two different models are formulated. The software also provides a wide variety of structure priors which can be informative or uninformative. We proposed a new and much faster jumping kernel strategy in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The source C code distributed is very compact, fast, uses low memory and disk storage. We performed out several analyses based on different simulated data sets and synthetic as well as real networks to discuss the performance of Graph_sampler.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2013

Probabilistic generation of random networks taking into account information on motifs occurrence

Because of the huge number of graphs possible even with a small number of nodes, inference on network structure is known to be a challenging problem. Generating large random directed graphs with prescribed probabilities of occurrences of some meaningful patterns (motifs) is also difficult. We show how to generate such random graphs according to a formal probabilistic representation, using fast Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to sample them. As an illustration, we generate realistic graphs with several hundred nodes mimicking a gene transcription interaction network in Escherichia coli.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2013

Bayesian inference for CoVaR

Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting market participants' risk capital. Commonly used risk management tools fail to account for potential spillover effects among institutions because they provide individual risk assessment. We contribute to analyse the interdependence effects of extreme events providing an estimation tool for evaluating the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) defined as the Value-at-Risk of an institution conditioned on another institution being under distress. In particular, our approach relies on Bayesian quantile regression framework. We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm exploiting the Asymmetric Laplace distribution and its representation as a location-scale mixture of Normals. Moreover, since risk measures are usually evaluated on time series data and returns typically change over time, we extend the CoVaR model to account for the dynamics of the tail behaviour. Application on U.S. companies belonging to different sectors of the Standard and Poor's Composite Index (S&P500) is considered to evaluate the marginal contribution to the overall systemic risk of each individual institution

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Bayesian optimal adaptive estimation using a sieve prior

We derive rates of contraction of posterior distributions on nonparametric models resulting from sieve priors. The aim of the paper is to provide general conditions to get posterior rates when the parameter space has a general structure, and rate adaptation when the parameter space is, e.g., a Sobolev class. The conditions employed, although standard in the literature, are combined in a different way. The results are applied to density, regression, nonlinear autoregression and Gaussian white noise models. In the latter we have also considered a loss function which is different from the usual l2 norm, namely the pointwise loss. In this case it is possible to prove that the adaptive Bayesian approach for the l2 loss is strongly suboptimal and we provide a lower bound on the rate.

math.ST↗

arXiv2013

Sharp detection of smooth signals in a high-dimensional sparse matrix with indirect observations

We consider a matrix-valued Gaussian sequence model, that is, we observe a sequence of high-dimensional $M \times N$ matrices of heterogeneous Gaussian random variables $x_{ij,k}$ for $i \in\{1,...,M\}$, $j \in \{1,...,N\}$ and $k \in \mathbb{Z}$. The standard deviation of our observations is $\ep k^s$ for some $\ep >0$ and $s \geq 0$. We give sharp rates for the detection of a sparse submatrix of size $m \times n$ with active components. A component $(i,j)$ is said active if the sequence $\{x_{ij,k}\}_k$ have mean $\{θ_{ij,k}\}_k$ within a Sobolev ellipsoid of smoothness $τ>0$ and total energy $\sum_k θ^2_{ij,k} $ larger than some $r^2_\ep$. Our rates involve relationships between $m,\, n, \, M$ and $N$ tending to infinity such that $m/M$, $n/N$ and $\ep$ tend to 0, such that a test procedure that we construct has asymptotic minimax risk tending to 0. We prove corresponding lower bounds under additional assumptions on the relative size of the submatrix in the large matrix of observations. Except for these additional conditions our rates are asymptotically sharp. Lower bounds for hypothesis testing problems mean that no test procedure can distinguish between the null hypothesis (no signal) and the alternative, i.e. the minimax risk for testing tends to 1.

math.ST↗

arXiv2012

Detection of sparse additive functions

We study the problem of detection of a high-dimensional signal function in the white Gaussian noise model. As well as a smoothness assumption on the signal function, we assume an additive sparse condition on the latter. The detection problem is expressed in terms of a nonparametric hypothesis testing problem and it is solved according to the asymptotical minimax approach. The minimax test procedures are adaptive in the sparsity parameter for high sparsity case. We extend to the functional case the known results in the detection of sparse high-dimensional vectors. In particular, our asymptotic detection boundaries are derived from the same asymptotic relations as in the vector case.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

A test of goodness-of-fit for the copula densities

We consider the problem of testing hypotheses on the copula density from $n$ bi-dimensional observations. We wish to test the null hypothesis characterized by a parametric class against a composite nonparametric alternative. Each density under the alternative is separated in the $L_2$-norm from any density lying in the null hypothesis. The copula densities under consideration are supposed to belong to a range of Besov balls. According to the minimax approach, the testing problem is solved in an adaptive framework: it leads to a $\log\log$ term loss in the minimax rate of testing in comparison with the non-adaptive case. A smoothness-free test statistic that achieves the minimax rate is proposed. The lower bound is also proved. Besides, the empirical performance of the test procedure is demonstrated with both simulated and real data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2007

Parametric estimation in noisy blind deconvolution model: a new estimation procedure

In a parametric framework, the paper is devoted to the study of a new estimation procedure for the inverse filter and the level noise in a complex noisy blind discrete deconvolution model. Our estimation method is a consequence of the sharp exploitation of the specifical properties of the Hankel forms. The distribution of the input signal is also estimated. The strong consistency and the asymptotic distribution of all estimates are established. A consistent simulation study is added in order to demonstrate empirically the computational performance of our estimation procedures.

math.ST↗