arXiv subjects

Giacomo Aletti

Publications and source records attributed to Giacomo Aletti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A multi-factorial innovation model with mean-field interaction

We introduce an Indian-buffet-type model for multi-factorial innovation in which each arriving agent may exhibit both previously observed and new features. The number of new features follows a power-law behavior, while the probability of selecting an old feature combines self-reinforcement, depending on the feature-specific popularity, with a mean-field interaction term depending on the average popularity of all observed features. The model is governed by the usual innovation parameters (mass, discount and concentration), together with two additional parameters: one controlling the strength of reinforcement against a forcing input toward zero, and one regulating the intensity of the mean-field interaction. Although the growth of the total number of distinct observed features has the same behavior as in the three-parameter Indian buffet process, the mean-field interaction mechanism produces new asymptotic regimes. For aggregate quantities, including the predictive mean, the averaged number of features per agent, the mean inclusion probability, and the mean feature popularity, the phase transition is determined by the comparison between the discount parameter and the weight of the forcing input. For feature-specific quantities, a further transition appears according to the comparison between the interaction level and a critical threshold. In particular, high interaction leads to an asymptotic synchronization of feature-specific inclusion probabilities. We establish strong laws and second-order asymptotic results, including central limit theorems in regimes where martingale fluctuations compete with deterministic or random terms. The analysis relies on novel general results for recursive stochastic dynamics, which may be useful beyond the present framework.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Design and inference for multi-arm clinical trials with informational borrowing: the interacting urns design

This paper deals with a new design methodology for stratified comparative experiments based on a system of interacting urns. The key idea is to model the interaction between urns for borrowing information across strata and to use it in the design phase in order to i) enhance the information exchange at the beginning of the study, when only few subjects have been enrolled and the stratum-specific information on treatments' efficacy could be scarce, ii) let the information sharing adaptively evolve via an update mechanism based on the observed outcomes, for skewing at each step the allocations towards the stratum-specific most promising treatment and iii) make the contribution of the strata with different treatment efficacy vanishing as the stratum information grows. In particular, we introduce the Interacting Urns Design, namely a new Covariate-Adjusted Response-Adaptive procedure, that randomizes the treatment allocations according to the evolution of the urn system. The theoretical properties of this proposal are described and the corresponding asymptotic inference is provided. Moreover, by a functional central limit theorem, we obtain the asymptotic joint distribution of the Wald-type sequential test statistics, which allows to sequentially monitor the suggested design in the clinical practice

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Modeling Innovation Ecosystem Dynamics through Interacting Reinforced Bernoulli Processes

Innovation is cumulative and interdependent: successful inventions build on prior knowledge within technological fields and may also affect success across related ones. Yet these dimensions are often studied separately in the innovation literature. This paper asks whether patent success across technological categories can be represented within a single dynamic framework that jointly captures within-category reinforcement, cross-category spillovers, and a set of aggregate regularities observed in patent data. To address this question, we propose a model of interacting reinforced Bernoulli processes in which the probability of success in a given category depends on past successes both within that category and across other categories. The framework yields joint predictions for success probabilities, cumulative successes, relative success shares, and cross-category dependence. We implement the model using granted US patent families from GLOBAL PATSTAT (1980-2018), defining category-specific success through a cohort-normalized forward-citation index. The empirical analysis shows that successful innovations continue to accumulate, but less than proportionally to the growth in patent opportunities, while technological categories remain interdependent without becoming homogeneous. Under a mean-field restriction, the model-based inferential exercise yields an estimated interaction intensity of 0.643, pointing to positive but non-maximal interaction across technological categories.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Central limit theorems for interacting innovation processes, related statistical tools and general results

We study a networked system of innovation processes, where each process is modeled as an urn with infinitely many colors-a classical framework for capturing the emergence of novelties. Extending this paradigm, we analyze a model of interacting urns, where the probability of generating or reusing elements in one process is influenced by the histories of others. This interaction is governed by two matrices that control innovation triggering and reinforcement dynamics across the system. The core contribution of this work is a detailed analysis of the second-order asymptotic behavior of the model. Building on these theoretical results, we develop statistical tools to infer the structure and strength of inter-process influence. The methodology is framed in a general setting, making it broadly applicable. We validate our approach with applications to two real-world datasets from Reddit discussions and Gutenberg text corpora.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

From Local Updates to Global Balance: A Framework for Distributed Matrix Scaling

This paper investigates matrix scaling processes in the context of local normalization algorithms and their convergence behavior. Starting from the classical Sinkhorn algorithm, the authors introduce a generalization where only a single row or column is normalized at each step, without restrictions on the update order. They extend Birkhoff's theorem to characterize the convergence properties of these algorithms, especially when the normalization sequence is arbitrary. A novel application is explored in the form of a Decentralized Random Walk (DRW) on directed graphs, where agents modify edge weights locally without global knowledge or memory. The paper shows that such local updates lead to convergence towards a doubly stochastic matrix, ensuring a uniform stationary distribution across graph vertices. These results not only deepen the theoretical understanding of matrix scaling but also open avenues for distributed and agent-based models in networks.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Maximum Likelihood Estimation under the Emax Model: Existence, Geometry and Efficiency

This study focuses on the estimation of the Emax dose-response model, a widely utilized framework in clinical trials, agriculture, and environmental experiments. Existing challenges in obtaining maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for model parameters are often ascribed to computational issues but, in reality, stem from the absence of a MLE. Our contribution provides a new understanding and control of all the experimental situations that practitioners might face, guiding them in the estimation process. We derive the exact MLE for a three-point experimental design and we identify the two scenarios where the MLE fails. To address these challenges, we propose utilizing Firth's modified score, providing its analytical expression as a function of the experimental design. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that, in one of the problematic cases, the Firth modification yields a finite estimate. For the remaining case, we introduce a design-augmentation strategy akin to a hypothesis test.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Networks of reinforced stochastic processes: probability of asymptotic polarization and related general results

In a network of reinforced stochastic processes, for certain values of the parameters, all the agents' inclinations synchronize and converge almost surely toward a certain random variable. The present work aims at clarifying when the agents can asymptotically polarize, i.e. when the common limit inclination can take the extreme values, 0 or 1, with probability zero, strictly positive, or equal to one. Moreover, we present a suitable technique to estimate this probability that, along with the theoretical results, has been framed in the more general setting of a class of martingales taking values in [0, 1] and following a specific dynamics.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Interacting Innovation processes: case studies from Reddit and Gutenberg

In this work, we introduce an extremely general model for a collection of innovation processes in order to model and analyze the interaction among them. We provide theoretical results, analytically proven, and we show how the proposed model fits the behaviors observed in some real data sets (from Reddit and Gutenberg). It is worth mentioning that the given applications are only examples of the potentialities of the proposed model and related results: due to its abstractness and generality, it can be applied to many interacting innovation processes.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Networks of reinforced stochastic processes: a complete description of the first-order asymptotics

We consider a finite collection of reinforced stochastic processes with a general network-based interaction among them. We provide sufficient and necessary conditions in order to have some form of almost sure asymptotic synchronization, which could be roughly defined as the almost sure long-run uniformization of the behavior of interacting processes. Specifically, we detect a regime of complete synchronization, where all the processes converge toward the same random variable, a second regime where the system almost surely converges, but there exists no form of almost sure asymptotic synchronization, and another regime where the system does not converge with a strictly positive probability. In this latter case, partitioning the system in cyclic classes according to the period of the interaction matrix, we have an almost sure asymptotic synchronization within the cyclic classes, and, with a strictly positive probability, an asymptotic periodic behavior of these classes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Opinion Dynamics on Graphon: the piecewise constant case

The study of network supported opinion dynamics in large groups of autonomous agents is attracting an increasing interest during the last years. In this paper, we proposed the use of the recent graphon theory to model and simulate an interacting system describing the evolution of individual opinions over an arbitrary size networks. Specifically, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the limit problem that approximates a very large networks made by homogeneous groups of agents. The significant new example is the mean field analysis deduced from the graphon limit systems in the case of piecewise constant graphon.

math.CA↗

arXiv2021

The Rescaled Polya Urn and the Wright-Fisher process with mutation

In [arXiv:1906.10951 (forthcoming on Advances in Applied Probability),arXiv:2011.05933 (published on PLOS ONE)] the authors introduce, study and apply a new variant of the Eggenberger-Polya urn, called the "Rescaled" Polya urn, which, for a suitable choice of the model parameters, is characterized by the following features: (i) a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last observations, (ii) a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean, and (iii) a long-term almost sure convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit, together with a chi-squared goodness of fit result for the limit probabilities. In this work, motivated by some empirical evidences in [arXiv:2011.05933 (published on PLOS ONE)], we show that the multidimensional Wright-Fisher diffusion with mutation can be obtained as a suitable limit of the predictive means associated to a family of rescaled Polya urns

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Damping effect in innovation processes: case studies from Twitter

Understanding the innovation process, that is the underlying mechanisms through which novelties emerge, diffuse and trigger further novelties is undoubtedly of fundamental importance in many areas (biology, linguistics, social science and others). The models introduced so far satisfy the Heaps' law, regarding the rate at which novelties appear, and the Zipf's law, that states a power law behavior for the frequency distribution of the elements. However, there are empirical cases far from showing a pure power law behavior and such a deviation is present for elements with high frequencies. We explain this phenomenon by means of a suitable "damping" effect in the probability of a repetition of an old element. While the proposed model is extremely general and may be also employed in other contexts, it has been tested on some Twitter data sets and demonstrated great performances with respect to Heaps' law and, above all, with respect to the fitting of the frequency-rank plots for low and high frequencies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Analytical confidence intervals for the number of different objects in data streams

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Generalized Rescaled Polya urn and its statistical applications

We introduce the Generalized Rescaled Polya (GRP) urn, that provides a generative model for a chi-squared test of goodness of fit for the long-term probabilities of clustered data, with independence between clusters and correlation, due to a reinforcement mechanism, inside each cluster. We apply the proposed test to a data set of Twitter posts about COVID-19 pandemic: in a few words, for a classical chi-squared test the data result strongly significant for the rejection of the null hypothesis (the daily long-run sentiment rate remains constant), but, taking into account the correlation among data, the introduced test leads to a different conclusion. Beside the statistical application, we point out that the GRP urn is a simple variant of the standard Eggenberger-Polya urn, that, with suitable choices of the parameters, shows "local" reinforcement, almost sure convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit and different asymptotic behaviours of the predictive mean. Moreover, the study of this model provides the opportunity to analyze stochastic approximation dynamics, that are unusual in the related literature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

A model for the Twitter sentiment curve

Twitter is among the most used online platforms for the political communications, due to the concision of its messages (which is particularly suitable for political slogans) and the quick diffusion of messages. Especially when the argument stimulate the emotionality of users, the content on Twitter is shared with extreme speed and thus studying the tweet sentiment if of utmost importance to predict the evolution of the discussions and the register of the relative narratives. In this article, we present a model able to reproduce the dynamics of the sentiments of tweets related to specific topics and periods and to provide a prediction of the sentiment of the future posts based on the observed past. The model is a recent variant of the Pólya urn, introduced and studied in arXiv:1906.10951 and arXiv:2010.06373, which is characterized by a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the most recent observations, and by a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean. In particular, this latter feature is capable of capturing the trend fluctuations in the sentiment curve. While the proposed model is extremely general and may be also employed in other contexts, it has been tested on several Twitter data sets and demonstrated greater performances compared to the standard Pólya urn model. Moreover, the different performances on different data sets highlight different emotional sensitivities respect to a public event.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

The Rescaled Polya Urn: local reinforcement and chi-squared goodness of fit test

Motivated by recent studies of big samples, this work aims at constructing a parametric model which is characterized by the following features: (i) a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last observations, (ii) a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean, and (iii) a long-term convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit, together with a chi-squared goodness of fit result. This triple purpose has been achieved by the introduction of a new variant of the Eggenberger-Polya urn, that we call the "Rescaled" Polya urn. We provide a complete asymptotic characterization of this model, pointing out that, for a certain choice of the parameters, it has properties different from the ones typically exhibited from the other urn models in the literature. Therefore, beyond the possible statistical application, this work could be interesting for those who are concerned with stochastic processes with reinforcement.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Interacting reinforced stochastic processes: statistical inference based on the weighted empirical means

This work deals with a system of interacting reinforced stochastic processes, where each process $X^j=(X_{n,j})_n$ is located at a vertex $j$ of a finite weighted direct graph, and it can be interpreted as the sequence of "actions" adopted by an agent $j$ of the network. The interaction among the dynamics of these processes depends on the weighted adjacency matrix $W$ associated to the underlying graph: indeed, the probability that an agent $j$ chooses a certain action depends on its personal "inclination" $Z_{n,j}$ and on the inclinations $Z_{n,h}$, with $h\neq j$, of the other agents according to the entries of $W$. The best known example of reinforced stochastic process is the Polya urn. The present paper characterizes the asymptotic behavior of the weighted empirical means $N_{n,j}=\sum_{k=1}^n q_{n,k} X_{k,j}$, proving their almost sure synchronization and some central limit theorems in the sense of stable convergence. By means of a more sophisticated decomposition of the considered processes adopted here, these findings complete and improve some asymptotic results for the personal inclinations $Z^j=(Z_{n,j})_n$ and for the empirical means $\overline{X}^j=(\sum_{k=1}^n X_{k,j}/n)_n$ given in recent papers (e.g. [arXiv:1705.02126, Bernoulli, Forth.]; [arXiv:1607.08514, Ann. Appl. Probab., 27(6):3787-3844, 2017]; [arXiv:1602.06217, Stochastic Process. Appl., 129(1):70-101, 2019]). Our work is motivated by the aim to understand how the different rates of convergence of the involved stochastic processes combine and, from an applicative point of view, by the construction of confidence intervals for the common limit inclination of the agents and of a test statistics to make inference on the matrix $W$, based on the weighted empirical means. In particular, we answer a research question posed in [arXiv:1705.02126, Bernoulli, Forth.]

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Networks of reinforced stochastic processes: asymptotics for the empirical means

This work deals with systems of interacting reinforced stochastic processes, where each process $X^j=(X_{n,j})_n$ is located at a vertex $j$ of a finite weighted direct graph, and it can be interpreted as the sequence of "actions" adopted by an agent $j$ of the network. The interaction among the evolving dynamics of these processes depends on the weighted adjacency matrix $W$ associated to the underlying graph: indeed, the probability that an agent $j$ chooses a certain action depends on its personal "inclination" $Z_{n,j}$ and on the inclinations $Z_{n,h}$, with $h\neq j$, of the other agents according to the elements of $W$. Asymptotic results for the stochastic processes of the personal inclinations $Z^j=(Z_{n,j})_n$ have been subject of studies in recent papers (e.g. Aletti, Crimaldi, and Ghiglietti [arXiv:1607.08514, Ann. Appl. Probab., 27(6):3787-3844, 2017]; Crimaldi, Dai Pra, Louis, and Minelli [arXiv:1602.06217, Forthcoming in Stochastic Process. Appl.]); while the asymptotic behavior of quantities based on the stochastic processes $X^j$ of the actions has never been studied yet. In this paper, we fill this gap by characterizing the asymptotic behavior of the empirical means $N_{n,j}=\sum_{k=1}^n X_{k,j}/n$, proving their almost sure synchronization and some central limit theorems in the sense of stable convergence. Moreover, we discuss some statistical applications of these convergence results concerning confidence intervals for the random limit toward which all the processes of the system converge and tools to make inference on the matrix $W$.

math.PR↗