arXiv subjects

Gian Paolo Clemente

Publications and source records attributed to Gian Paolo Clemente.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

A Novel Self-Adaptive SIS Model Based on the Mutual Interaction between a Graph and its Line Graph

We propose a new paradigm to design a network-based self-adaptive epidemic model that relies on the interplay between the network and its line graph. We implement this proposal on a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model in which both nodes and edges are considered susceptible and their respective probabilities of being infected result in a real-time re-modulation of the weights of both the graph and its line graph. The new model can be considered as an appropriate perturbation of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, and the coupling between the graph and its line graph is interpreted as a reinforcement factor that fosters diffusion through a continuous adjustment of the parameters involved. We study the existence and stability conditions of the endemic and disease-free states for general network topologies. Moreover, we introduce, through the asymptotic values in the endemic steady states, a new type of eigenvector centrality where the score of a node depends on both the neighboring nodes and the edges connected to it. We also investigate the properties of this new model on some specific synthetic graphs, such as cycle, regular, and star graphs. Finally, we perform a series of numerical simulations and prove their effectiveness in capturing some empirical evidence on behavioral adoption mechanisms.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2023

A cohort-based Partial Internal Model for demographic risk

We investigate the quantification of demographic risk in a framework consistent with the market-consistent valuation imposed by Solvency II. We provide compact formulas for evaluating inflows and outflows of a portfolio of insurance policies based on a cohort approach. In this context, we maintain the highest level of generality in order to consider both traditional policies and equity-linked policies: therefore, we propose a market-consistent valuation of the liabilities. In the second step we evaluate the Solvency Capital Requirement of the idiosyncratic risk, linked to accidental mortality, and the systematic risk one, also known as trend risk, proposing a formal closed formula for the former and an algorithm for the latter. We show that accidental volatility depends on the intrinsic characteristics of the policies of the cohort (Sums-at-Risk), on the age of the policyholders and on the variability of the sums insured; trend risk depends both on accidental volatility and on the longevity forecasting model used.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2022

Taxonomy of Cohesion Coefficients for Weighted and Directed Multilayer Networks

Clustering and closure coefficients are among the most widely applied indicators in the description of the topological structure of a network. Many distinct definitions have been proposed over time, particularly in the case of weighted networks, where the choice of the weight attributed to the triangles is a crucial aspect. In the present work, in the framework of weighted directed multilayer networks, we extend the classical clustering and closure coefficients through the introduction of the clumping coefficient, which generalizes them to incomplete triangles of any type. We then organize the class of these coefficients in a systematic taxonomy in the more general context of weighted directed multilayer networks. Such cohesion coefficients have also been adapted to the different scales that characterize a multilayer network, in order to grasp their structure from different perspectives. We also show how the tensor formalism allows incorporating the new definitions, as well as all those existing in the literature, in a single unified writing, in such a way that a suitable choice of the involved adjacency tensors allows obtaining each of them. Finally, through some applications to simulated networks, we show the effectiveness of the proposed coefficients in capturing different peculiarities of the network structure on different scales.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Clustering coefficients as measures of the complex interactions in a directed weighted multilayer network

In this paper, we provide novel definitions of clustering coefficient for weighted and directed multilayer networks. We extend in the multilayer theoretical context the clustering coefficients proposed in the literature for weighted directed monoplex networks. We quantify how deeply a node is involved in a choesive structure focusing on a single node, on a single layer or on the entire system. The coefficients convey several characteristics inherent to the complex topology of the multilayer network. We test their effectiveness applying them to a particularly complex structure such as the international trade network. The trade data integrate different aspects and they can be described by a directed and weighted multilayer network, where each layer represents import and export relationships between countries for a given sector. The proposed coefficients find successful application in describing the interrelations of the trade network, allowing to disentangle the effects of countries and sectors and jointly consider the interactions between them.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

Strategic energy flows in input-output relations: a temporal multilayer approach

The energy consumption, the transfer of resources through the international trade, the transition towards renewable energies and the environmental sustainability appear as key drivers in order to evaluate the resilience of the energy systems. Concerning the consumptions, in the literature a great attention has been paid to direct energy, but the production of goods and services also involves indirect energy. Hence, in this work we consider different types of embodied energy sources and the time evolution of the sectors' and countries' interactions. Flows are indeed used to construct a directed and weighted temporal multilayer network based respectively on renewable and non-renewable sources, where sectors are nodes and layers are countries. We provide a methodological approach for analysing the network reliability and resilience and for identifying critical sectors and economies in the system by applying the Multi-Dimensional HITS algorithm. Then, we evaluate central arcs in the network at each time period by proposing a novel topological indicator based on the maximum flow problem. In this way, we provide a full view of economies, sectors and connections that play a relevant role over time in the network and whose removal could heavily affect the stability of the system. We provide a numerical analysis based on the embodied energy flows among countries and sectors in the period from 1990 to 2016. Results prove that the methods are effective in catching the different patterns between renewable and non-renewable energy sources.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties

We analyze the multilayer architecture of the global input-output network using sectoral trade data (WIOD, 2016 release). With a focus on the mesoscale structure and related properties, our multilayer analysis takes into consideration the splitting into industry-based layers in order to catch more peculiar relationships between countries that cannot be detected from the analysis of the single-layer aggregated network. We can identify several large international communities in which some countries trade more intensively in some specific layers. However, interestingly, our results show that these clusters can restructure and evolve over time. In general, not only their internal composition changes, but the centrality rankings of the members inside are also reordered, industries from some countries diminishing their role and others from other countries growing importance. These changes in the large international clusters may reflect the outcomes and the dynamics of cooperation, partner selection and competition among industries and among countries in the global input-output network.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

A tensor-based unified approach for clustering coefficients in financial multiplex networks

Big data and the use of advanced technologies are relevant topics in the financial market. In this context, complex networks became extremely useful in describing the structure of complex financial systems. In particular, the time evolution property of the stock markets have been described by temporal networks. However, these approaches fail to consider the interactions over time between assets. To overcome this drawback, financial markets can be described by multiplex networks where the different relations between nodes can be conveniently expressed structuring the network through different layers. To catch this kind of interconnections we provide new local clustering coefficients for multiplex networks, looking at the network from different perspectives depending on the node position, as well as a global clustering coefficient for the whole network. We also prove that all the well-known expressions for clustering coefficients existing in the literature, suitably extended to the multiplex framework, may be unified into our proposal. By means of an application to the multiplex temporal financial network, based on the returns of the S\&P100 assets, we show that the proposed measures prove to be effective in describing dependencies between assets over time.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

The effect of the pandemic on complex socio-economic systems: community detection induced by communicability

The increasing complexity of interrelated systems has made the use of multiplex networks an important tool for explaining the nature of relations between elements in the system. In this paper, we aim at investigating various aspects of countries' behaviour during the coronavirus pandemic period. By means of a multiplex network we consider simultaneously stringency index values, COVID-19 infections and international trade data, in order to detect clusters of countries that showed a similar reaction to the pandemic. We propose a new methodological approach based on the Estrada communicability for identifying communities on a multiplex network, based on a two-step optimization. At first, we determine the optimal inter-layer intensity between levels by minimizing a distance function. Hence, the optimal inter-layer intensity is used to detect communities on each layer. Our findings show that the community detection on this multiplex network has greater information power than classical methods for single-layer networks. Our approach better reveals clusters on each layer with respect to the application of the same approach on each single-layer. Moreover, detected groups in the multiplex case benefit of a higher cohesion, leading to identifying on each layer a lower number of communities with respect to the ones obtained in the single-layer cases.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Multi-attribute community detection in International Trade Network

Understanding the structure of communities in a network has a great importance in the economic analysis. Communities are indeed characterized by specific properties, that are different from those of both the individual node and the whole network, and they can affect various processes on the network. In the International Trade Network, community detection aims to search sets of countries (or of trade sectors) which have a high intra-cluster connectivity and a low inter-cluster connectivity. In general, exchanges among countries occur according to preferential economic relationships ranging over different sectors. In this paper, we combine community detection with specific topological indicators, such as centrality measures. As a result, a new weighted network is constructed by the original one, in which weights are determined taking into account all the topological indicators in a multi-criteria approach. To solve the resulting Clique Partitioning Problem and find homogeneous group of nations, we use a new fast algorithm, based on quick descents to a local optimal solution. The analysis allows to cluster countries by interconnections, economic power and intensity of trade, giving an important overview on the international trade patterns.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

A bridge between Local GAAP and Solvency II frameworks to quantify Capital Requirement for demographic risk

The paper provides a stochastic model useful for assessing the capital requirement for demographic risk. The model extends to the market consistent context classical methodologies developed in a local accounting framework. In particular we provide a unique formulation for different non-participating life insurance contracts and we prove analytically that the valuation of demographic profit can be significantly affected by the financial conditions in the market. A case study has been also developed considering a portfolio of life insurance contracts. Results prove the effectiveness of the model in highlighting main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, also compared to local GAAP framework.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

Assessing Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector via Network Theory

We provide a framework for detecting relevant insurance companies in a systemic risk perspective. Among the alternative methodologies for measuring systemic risk, we propose a complex network approach where insurers are linked to form a global interconnected system. We model the reciprocal influence between insurers calibrating edge weights on the basis of specific risk measures. Therefore, we provide a suitable network indicator, the Weighted Effective Resistance Centrality, able to catch which is the effect of a specific vertex on the network robustness. By means of this indicator, we assess the prominence of a company in spreading and receiving risk from the others.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

Systemic risk assessment through high order clustering coefficient

In this article we propose a novel measure of systemic risk in the context of financial networks. To this aim, we provide a definition of systemic risk which is based on the structure, developed at different levels, of clustered neighbours around the nodes of the network. The proposed measure incorporates the generalized concept of clustering coefficient of order $l$ of a node $i$ introduced in Cerqueti et al. (2018). Its properties are also explored in terms of systemic risk assessment. Empirical experiments on the time-varying global banking network show the effectiveness of the presented systemic risk measure and provide insights on how systemic risk has changed over the last years, also in the light of the recent financial crisis and the subsequent more stringent regulation for globally systemically important banks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Community structure in the World Trade Network based on communicability distances

In this paper, we investigate the mesoscale structure of the World Trade Network. In this framework, a specific role is assumed by short and long-range interactions, and hence by the distance, between countries. Therefore, we identify clusters through a new procedure that exploits Estrada communicability distance and the vibrational communicability distance, which turn out to be particularly suitable for catching the inner structure of the economic network. The proposed methodology aims at finding the distance threshold that maximizes a specific modularity function defined for general metric spaces. Main advantages regard the computational efficiency of the procedure as well as the possibility to inspect intercluster and intracluster properties of the resulting communities. The numerical analysis highlights peculiar relationships between countries and provides a rich set of information that can hardly be achieved within alternative clustering approaches.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Stratified communities in complex business networks

This paper presents a new definition of the community structure of a network, which takes also into account how communities are stratified. In particular, we extend the standard concept of clustering coefficient and provide the local $l$-adjacency clustering coefficient of a node $i$. We define it as an opportunely weighted mean of the clustering coefficients of nodes which are at distance $l$ from $i$. The stratus of the community associated to node $i$ is identified by the distance $l$ from $i$, so that the standard clustering coefficient is a peculiar local $l$-adjacency clustering coefficient at stratus $l=0$. As the distance $l$ varies, the local $l$-adjacency clustering coefficient is then used to infer insights on the community structure of the entire network. Empirical experiments on special business networks are carried out. In particular, the analysis of air traffic networks validate the theoretical proposal and provide supporting arguments on its usefulness.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Risk-dependent centrality in economic and financial networks

Node centrality is one of the most important and widely used concepts in the study of complex networks. Here, we extend the paradigm of node centrality in financial and economic networks to consider the changes of node "importance" produced not only by the variation of the topology of the system but also as a consequence of the external levels of risk to which the network as a whole is submitted. Starting from the "Susceptible-Infected" (SI) model of epidemics and its relation to the communicability functions of networks we develop a series of risk-dependent centralities for nodes in (financial and economic) networks. We analyze here some of the most important mathematical properties of these risk-dependent centrality measures. In particular, we study the newly observed phenomenon of ranking interlacement, by means of which two entities may interlace their ranking positions in terms of risk in the network as a consequence of the change in the external conditions only, i.e., without any change in the topology. We test the risk-dependent centralities by studying two real-world systems: the network generated by collecting assets of the S\&P 100 and the corporate board network of the US top companies, according to Forbes in 1999. We found that a high position in the ranking of the analyzed financial companies according to their risk-dependent centrality corresponds to companies more sensitive to the external market variations during the periods of crisis.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2019

Influence measures in subnetworks using vertex centrality

This work deals with the issue of assessing the influence of a node in the entire network and in the subnetwork to which it belongs as well, adapting the classical idea of vertex centrality. We provide a general definition of relative vertex centrality measure with respect to the classical one, referred to the whole network. Specifically, we give a decomposition of the relative centrality measure by including also the relative influence of the single node with respect to a given subgraph containing it. The proposed measure of relative centrality is tested in the empirical networks generated by collecting assets of the $S\&P$ 100, focusing on two specific centrality indices: betweenness and eigenvector centrality. The analysis is performed in a time perspective, capturing the assets influence, with respect to the characteristics of the analysed measures, in both the entire network and the specific sectors to which the assets belong.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Smart network based portfolios

In this article we deal with the problem of portfolio allocation by enhancing network theory tools. We use the dependence structure of the correlations network in constructing some well-known risk-based models in which the estimation of correlation matrix is a building block in the portfolio optimization. We formulate and solve all these portfolio allocation problems using both the standard approach and the network-based approach. Moreover, in constructing the network-based portfolios we propose the use of two different estimators for the covariance matrix: the sample estimator and the shrinkage toward constant correlation one. All the strategies under analysis are implemented on two high-dimensional portfolios having different characteristics, covering the period from January $2001$ to December $2017$. We find that the network-based portfolio consistently better performs and has lower risk compared to the corresponding standard portfolio in an out-of-sample perspective.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2019

Bounding robustness in complex networks under topological changes through majorization techniques

Measuring robustness is a fundamental task for analyzing the structure of complex networks. Indeed, several approaches to capture the robustness properties of a network have been proposed. In this paper we focus on spectral graph theory where robustness is measured by means of a graph invariant called Kirchhoff index, expressed in terms of eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix associated to a graph. This graph metric is highly informative as a robustness indicator for several realworld networks that can be modeled as graphs. We discuss a methodology aimed at obtaining some new and tighter bounds of this graph invariant when links are added or removed. We take advantage of real analysis techniques, based on majorization theory and optimization of functions which preserve the majorization order (Schurconvex functions). Applications to simulated graphs show the effectiveness of our bounds, also in providing meaningful insights with respect to the results obtained in the literature.

math.CO↗