arXiv subjects

Gianluca Nogara

Publications and source records attributed to Gianluca Nogara.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

"If It Looks Like a User": Measuring Real-Time Moderation Effects via Social Media Simulation

Agent-based social media simulators offer a controlled environment to study content moderation, yet their value hinges on how faithfully they reproduce real platform dynamics. We develop a calibrated extension of SimSoM, an agent-based model of information diffusion on social networks, grounded in a real-world dataset of online vaccine discourse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach replaces ad-hoc parametrisations with empirically fitted distributions, optimised via CMA-ES (Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy) and validated against real data across temporal, distributional, and structural dimensions. Using this validated simulator, we provide three key contributions. First, we show that the calibrated model reproduces key statistical signatures of the empirical data, including activity distributions, post/reshare ratios, and temporal patterns. Second, we apply established misinformation-spreader detection and prevention methods to both empirical and simulated data, progressively removing top-ranked users and showing that the resulting decline in low-quality content is consistent across the two. Third, comparing static (retroactive) and dynamic (in-simulation) moderation across 30 network realisations, we show that static evaluation significantly overestimates the effectiveness of user bans for the most effective detectors: when moderation is applied in real time, compensatory resharing by the remaining users dampens the expected reduction in low-quality content, so static estimates should be read as an upper bound. These findings highlight the necessity of simulation-based evaluation for content moderation policies and contribute a reusable, empirically grounded simulation framework.

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arXiv2026

Audit of takedown delays across social media reveals failure to reduce exposure to illegal content

Illegal content on social media poses significant societal harm and necessitates timely removal. However, the impact of the speed of content removal on prevalence, reach, and exposure to illegal content remains underexplored. This study examines the relationship with a systematic audit of takedown delays using data from the EU Digital Services Act Transparency Database, covering five major platforms over a one-year period. We find substantial variation in takedown delay, with some content remaining online for weeks or even months. To evaluate how these delays affect the prevalence and reach of illegal content and exposure to it, we develop an agent-based model and calibrate it to empirical data. We simulate illegal content diffusion, revealing that rapid takedown (within hours) significantly reduces prevalence, reach, and exposure to illegal content, while the longer delays measured by the audit fail to reduce its spread. Though the link between delay and spread is intuitive, our simulations quantify exactly how takedown speed shapes exposure to illegal content. Building on these results, we point to the benefits of faster content removal to effectively curb the spread of illegal content, while also considering the limitations of strict enforcement policies.

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arXiv2025

A longitudinal analysis of misinformation, polarization and toxicity on Bluesky after its public launch

Bluesky is a decentralized, Twitter-like social media platform that has rapidly gained popularity. Following an invite-only phase, it officially opened to the public on February 6th, 2024, leading to a significant expansion of its user base. In this paper, we present a longitudinal analysis of user activity in the two months surrounding its public launch, examining how the platform evolved due to this rapid growth. Our analysis reveals that Bluesky exhibits an activity distribution comparable to more established social platforms, yet it features a higher volume of original content relative to reshared posts and maintains low toxicity levels. We further investigate the political leanings of its user base, misinformation dynamics, and engagement in harmful conversations. Our findings indicate that Bluesky users predominantly lean left politically and tend to share high-credibility sources. After the platform's public launch, an influx of new users, particularly those posting in English and Japanese, contributed to a surge in activity. Among them, several accounts displayed suspicious behaviors, such as mass-following users and sharing content from low-credibility news sources. Some of these accounts have already been flagged as spam or suspended, suggesting that Bluesky's moderation efforts have been effective.

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arXiv2024

The Dawn of Decentralized Social Media: An Exploration of Bluesky's Public Opening

Bluesky is a Twitter-like decentralized social media platform that has recently grown in popularity. After an invite-only period, it opened to the public worldwide on February 6th, 2024. In this paper, we provide a longitudinal analysis of user activity in the two months around the opening, studying changes in the general characteristics of the platform due to the rapid growth of the user base. We observe a broad distribution of activity similar to more established platforms, but a higher volume of original than reshared content, and very low toxicity. After opening to the public, Bluesky experienced a large surge in new users and activity, especially posting English and Japanese content. In particular, several accounts entered the discussion with suspicious behavior, like following many accounts and sharing content from low-credibility news outlets. Some of these have already been classified as spam or suspended, suggesting effective moderation.

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arXiv2024

Toxic Bias: Perspective API Misreads German as More Toxic

Proprietary public APIs play a crucial and growing role as research tools among social scientists. Among such APIs, Google's machine learning-based Perspective API is extensively utilized for assessing the toxicity of social media messages, providing both an important resource for researchers and automatic content moderation. However, this paper exposes an important bias in Perspective API concerning German language text. Through an in-depth examination of several datasets, we uncover intrinsic language biases within the multilingual model of Perspective API. We find that the toxicity assessment of German content produces significantly higher toxicity levels than other languages. This finding is robust across various translations, topics, and data sources, and has significant consequences for both research and moderation strategies that rely on Perspective API. For instance, we show that, on average, four times more tweets and users would be moderated when using the German language compared to their English translation. Our findings point to broader risks associated with the widespread use of proprietary APIs within the computational social sciences.

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arXiv2024

Misinformation and Polarization around COVID-19 vaccines in France, Germany, and Italy

The kick-off of vaccination campaigns in Europe, starting in late December 2020, has been followed by the online spread of controversies and conspiracies surrounding vaccine validity and efficacy. We study Twitter discussions in three major European languages (Italian, German, and French) during the vaccination campaign. Moving beyond content analysis to explore the structural aspects of online discussions, our investigation includes an analysis of polarization and the potential formation of echo chambers, revealing nuanced behavioral and topical differences in user interactions across the analyzed countries. Notably, we identify strong anti- and pro-vaccine factions exhibiting heterogeneous temporal polarization patterns in different countries. Through a detailed examination of news-sharing sources, we uncover the widespread use of other media platforms like Telegram and YouTube for disseminating low-credibility information, indicating a concerning trend of diminishing news credibility over time. Our findings on Twitter discussions during the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in major European languages expose nuanced behavioral distinctions, revealing the profound impact of polarization and the emergence of distinct anti-vaccine and pro-vaccine advocates over time.

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arXiv2023

Exposing Influence Campaigns in the Age of LLMs: A Behavioral-Based AI Approach to Detecting State-Sponsored Trolls

The detection of state-sponsored trolls operating in influence campaigns on social media is a critical and unsolved challenge for the research community, which has significant implications beyond the online realm. To address this challenge, we propose a new AI-based solution that identifies troll accounts solely through behavioral cues associated with their sequences of sharing activity, encompassing both their actions and the feedback they receive from others. Our approach does not incorporate any textual content shared and consists of two steps: First, we leverage an LSTM-based classifier to determine whether account sequences belong to a state-sponsored troll or an organic, legitimate user. Second, we employ the classified sequences to calculate a metric named the "Troll Score", quantifying the degree to which an account exhibits troll-like behavior. To assess the effectiveness of our method, we examine its performance in the context of the 2016 Russian interference campaign during the U.S. Presidential election. Our experiments yield compelling results, demonstrating that our approach can identify account sequences with an AUC close to 99% and accurately differentiate between Russian trolls and organic users with an AUC of 91%. Notably, our behavioral-based approach holds a significant advantage in the ever-evolving landscape, where textual and linguistic properties can be easily mimicked by Large Language Models (LLMs): In contrast to existing language-based techniques, it relies on more challenging-to-replicate behavioral cues, ensuring greater resilience in identifying influence campaigns, especially given the potential increase in the usage of LLMs for generating inauthentic content. Finally, we assessed the generalizability of our solution to various entities driving different information operations and found promising results that will guide future research.

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arXiv2023

User's Reaction Patterns in Online Social Network Communities

Several one-fits-all intervention policies were introduced by the Online Social Networks (OSNs) platforms to mitigate potential harms. Nevertheless, some studies showed the limited effectiveness of these approaches. An alternative to this would be a user-centered design of intervention policies. In this context, we study the susceptibility of users to undesired behavior in communities on OSNs. In particular, we explore their reaction to specific events. Our study shows that communities develop different undesired behavior patterns in reaction to specific events. These events can significantly alter the behavior of the community and invert the dynamics of behavior within the whole network. Our findings stress out the importance of understanding the reasons behind the changes in users' reactions and highlights the need of fine-tuning the research to the individual's level. It paves the way towards building better OSNs' intervention strategies centered on the user.

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arXiv2023

Tracking Fringe and Coordinated Activity on Twitter Leading Up To the US Capitol Attack

The aftermath of the 2020 US Presidential Election witnessed an unprecedented attack on the democratic values of the country through the violent insurrection at Capitol Hill on January 6th, 2021. The attack was fueled by the proliferation of conspiracy theories and misleading claims about the integrity of the election pushed by political elites and fringe communities on social media. In this study, we explore the evolution of fringe content and conspiracy theories on Twitter in the seven months leading up to the Capitol attack. We examine the suspicious coordinated activity carried out by users sharing fringe content, finding evidence of common adversarial manipulation techniques ranging from targeted amplification to manufactured consensus. Further, we map out the temporal evolution of, and the relationship between, fringe and conspiracy theories, which eventually coalesced into the rhetoric of a stolen election, with the hashtag #stopthesteal, alongside QAnon-related narratives. Our findings further highlight how social media platforms offer fertile ground for the widespread proliferation of conspiracies during major societal events, which can potentially lead to offline coordinated actions and organized violence.

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