arXiv subjects

Gijs D. Mulders

Publications and source records attributed to Gijs D. Mulders.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Gaps and Rings: A Near-Universal Trait of Extended Protoplanetary Discs

Substructures such as rings, gaps, and cavities are commonly observed in protoplanetary discs and are thought to play a key role in dust evolution and planet formation. However, a fraction of the extended discs (68% dust radii > 30 AU) in nearby star-forming regions remain unresolved, leaving their substructure content uncertain and thereby limiting our understanding of dust evolution and the initial conditions for planet formation across the full disc population. We aim to investigate the presence of substructures in previously unresolved, extended discs to assess whether all extended protoplanetary discs in the Solar neighbourhood exhibit substructures. We present new high-resolution ($\sim$0.12") ALMA Band 6 continuum observations at 1.33 mm of 26 previously unresolved, extended discs within 200 pc, completing the high-resolution sample of extended discs in Taurus, Ophiuchus, Chamaeleon, Lupus, Upper Scorpius, Upper Centaurus-Lupus and Lower Centaurus-Crux. We analyse radial intensity profiles using Frankenstein and Galario to detect substructures. Seventeen discs show clear substructures, while nine appear compact and structureless, smooth or ambiguous due to inclination or possible binarity/late-stage infall. We detect $^{12}$CO J=2-1 emission in 15 discs, with extended emission in four. Combined with literature data, our complete sample of 730 protoplanetary discs reveals that nearly all extended discs exhibit substructures, $\sim$91% detected in the full sample, and up to $\sim$98% when correcting for high-inclination systems where substructures may be hidden. Substructures are a near-universal feature of extended protoplanetary discs. They are more commonly detected in larger, massive discs and around higher-mass stars, and structured discs retain their dust mass over time. This supports the scenario in which dust traps, possibly induced by giant planets, shape disc morphologies.

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arXiv2026

The Radius Cliff is a Waterfall: Explaining Sub-Neptune Exoplanets with Steam Worlds

The demographics of Kepler planets provide a key testbed for models of planet formation and evolution, particularly for explaining the radius valley separating super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. A primordial interpretation based on differences in bulk densities -- where rocky and water-rich planets form via migration pathways -- offers an alternative to atmospheric loss scenarios. Updated interior structure models of water worlds with adiabatic steam atmospheres reproduce the observed valley near $\sim2~R_\oplus$ more accurately. Furthermore, migration models from our Genesis library suggest that these formation pathways can also account for the distinct period distributions of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes, as well as the emergence of the hot Neptune desert. Motivated by this, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model for close-in Kepler planets ($P<100$ days), combining rocky planets and water worlds without H/He envelopes. The inferred mass distributions of rocky and water-rich planets peak at $\sim2.6~M_\oplus$ and $\sim7~M_\oplus$, respectively, with the water mass fraction of water worlds peaking at $\sim41\%$. Water worlds provide a good representation of the Kepler sub-Neptune population, with the radius cliff emerging as a ``waterfall" -- a sharp decline in their occurrence. However, our mass-radius analysis shows that water worlds alone cannot explain planets with $R \gtrsim 3~R_\oplus$, implying that at least $\sim20\%$ of sub-Neptunes in the sample are enriched in H/He gas.

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arXiv2025

Why Estimating $η_\oplus$ is Difficult: A Kepler-Centric Perspective

$η_{\oplus}$, the occurrence rate of rocky habitable zone exoplanets orbiting Sun-like stars, is of great interest to both the astronomical community and the general public. The Kepler space telescope has made it possible to estimate $η_{\oplus}$, but estimates by different groups vary by more than an order of magnitude. We identify several causes for this range of estimates. We first review why, despite being designed to estimate $η_{\oplus}$, Kepler's observations are not sufficient for a high-confidence estimate, due to Kepler's detection limit coinciding with the $η_{\oplus}$ regime. This results in a need to infer $η_{\oplus}$, for example extrapolating from a regime of non-habitable zone, non-rocky exoplanets. We examine two broad classes of causes that can account for the large discrepancy in $η_\oplus$ found in the literature: a) differences in definitions and input data between studies, and b) fundamental limits in Kepler data that lead to large uncertainties and poor accuracy. We highlight the risk of large biases when using extrapolation to describe small exoplanet populations in the habitable zone. We discuss how $η_{\oplus}$ estimates based on Kepler data can be improved, such as reprocessing Kepler data for more complete, higher-reliability detections and better exoplanet catalog characterization. We briefly survey upcoming space telescopes capable of measuring $η_{\oplus}$, and how they can be used to supplement Kepler data.

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arXiv2025

Are We There Yet? Challenges in Quantifying the Frequency of Earth Analogs in the Habitable Zone

Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, $η_{\oplus}$, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of $η_{\oplus}$. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to $η_{\oplus}$. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of $η_{\oplus}$, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain $η_{\oplus}$. Understanding and refining the value of $η_{\oplus}$ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.

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arXiv2025

New migration patterns in high planet-star mass ratio systems in disks with low viscosity

Migration of giant planets remains a complex topic. While significant progress has been made for high-viscosity disks, the migration of planets with large planet-star mass ratios in low-viscosity environments is still not fully understood. We study the migration of such planets in disks with $α= 10^{-4}$ and derive analytical prescriptions applicable across stellar masses, from Sun-like stars to M dwarfs. Using hydrodynamical simulations with FARGO3D, we explored planets with mass ratios $10^{-3} < q < 2 \times 10^{-2}$ under different disk conditions, varying gas surface density, scale height, and density slope. Our results show a migration reversal at $ q \approx 0.002$, with outward migration for $ q > 0.002$. For planets undergoing outward migration, the migration speed depends on the unperturbed local gas density. In most cases, outward migration is sustained by a positive torque related to planetary eccentricities below $ e < 0.2$. However, for certain disk parameters, planets with $ q > 0.01$ reach higher eccentricities ($0.2 < e < 0.45$), leading to stalled migration. Our findings suggest that outward migration is a viable mechanism for massive planets in low-viscosity disks, which has implications for the formation and distribution of super-Jupiter planets around Sun-like stars and planets more massive than Neptune around very low-mass stars. Given the challenges in detecting such planets, improving our theoretical understanding of their migration is essential for interpreting exoplanet demographics and guiding future observational efforts.

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arXiv2025

ALMA High-resolution Observation for the Transitional Disk around IRAS 04125+2902

Recently, the youngest transiting planet was discovered around the T Tauri star, IRAS 04125+2902, in the Taurus-Auriga star-forming region. This system is crucial for understanding the early stages of planet formation. We used Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array Band 6 data to investigate the IRAS 04125+2902 system in detail. The dust continuum emission reveals a ring-gap transitional disk structure with an inclination of 35.6$^{\circ}$. In addition, two-dimensional super-resolution imaging based on Sparse Modeling and the one-dimensional modeling of disk brightness distribution suggest the existence of an inner emission, which may be attributed to an inner disk, although free-free emission from the central star is not ruled out. Furthermore, we identified the $^{12}$CO $J$=2-1 emission, and the dynamical mass of the central star is estimated to be 0.7-1.0 $M_{\odot}$. The asymmetry of the dust ring and the velocity distortion around the central star are, if at all, weak, suggesting that the inner disk, if it exists, is not highly inclined with respect to the outer disk. Radiative transfer calculations of dust continuum emission suggest that the inner and the outer disk may be misaligned by $\sim$10$^\circ$, which may be confirmed in future observations with higher resolution and sensitivity. Our results suggest that IRAS 04125+2902 is a dynamically complex system, where the binary orbit, outer disk, inner disk, and planetary orbit are mutually misaligned, providing insight into the early orbital evolution of young systems.

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arXiv2025

Radius valley scaling among low mass stars with TESS

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has been highly successful in detecting planets in close orbits around low-mass stars, particularly M dwarfs. This presents a valuable opportunity to conduct detailed population studies to understand how these planets depend on the properties of their host stars. The previously observed radius valley in Sun-like stars has not been unambiguously detected among M dwarfs, and how its properties varies when compared with more massive stars remains uncertain. We use a volume-limited sample of low mass stars with precise photometric stellar parameters from the bioverse catalog of TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) confirmed planets and candidates within 120 pc. We detect the radius valley around M dwarfs at a location of 1.64 $\pm$ 0.03 $R_{\oplus}$ and with a depth of approximately 45${\%}$. The radius valley among GKM stars scales with stellar mass as $R_p \propto M_*^{0.15\pm 0.04}$. The slope is consistent, within 0.3$σ$, with those around Sun-like stars. For M dwarfs, the discrepancy is 3.6$σ$ with the extrapolated slope from the Kepler FGK sample, marking the point where the deviation from previous results begins. Moreover, we do not see a clear shift in the radius valley between early and mid M dwarfs. The flatter scaling of the radius valley for lower-mass stars suggests that mechanisms other than atmospheric mass loss through photoevaporation may shape the radius distribution of planets around M dwarfs. Comparison of the slope with various planet formation and evolution models matches well with pebble accretion models including waterworlds, indicating a potentially different regime of planet formation that can be probed with exoplanets around the lowest mass stars.

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arXiv2025

Saturns, but not super-Jupiters, occur more frequently in the presence of inner super-Earths

Studies from recent years have reached different conclusions regarding how frequently super-Earths are accompanied by long period giant planets and vice versa. This relation has been predicted to be mass dependent by planet formation models. We investigate that as the origin of the discrepancy using a radial velocity sample: the California Legacy Survey. We perform detection completeness corrections in order to discard detection bias as a possible explanation to our results. After bias corrections, we find that cold Jupiters are 5.65 times more massive when not in company of an inner super-Earth, while super-Earths are not significantly more massive while in company of an outer giant planet. We also report an occurrence enhancement for Saturns (median projected mass of 0.6MJ) while in presence of a super-Earth by a factor of 4, and for super-Earths in presence of Saturns by the same factor. This positive correlation disappears for super-Jupiters (median projected mass of 3.1MJ). These results show that while cold Jupiters are generally accompanied by inner super-Earths, this does not hold for the largest giant planets, such as those that will be discovered by Gaia, which will likely not be accompanied by transiting planets. The mass dependence, in combination with different detection limits of different surveys, may explain the discrepancies concerning occurrence relations between cold Jupiters and super-Earths.

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arXiv2025

A high-resolution survey of protoplanetary disks in Lupus and the nature of compact disks

Most of the exoplanets discovered in our galaxy to date orbit low-mass stars, which tend to host small disks in their early stages. To better elucidate the link between planet formation and disk substructures, observational biases should be reduced through observations of these small, faint disks at the highest resolution using the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). In this work, we present new high-resolution (0.03-0.04") ALMA observations at 1.3 mm of 33 disks located in the Lupus star-forming region. Combining archival data and previously published work, we provide a near-complete high resolution image library of 73 protoplanetary (Class II) disks in Lupus. This enable us to measure dust disk radii down to a limit of 0.6 au and analyze intensity profiles using visibility modeling. We show that 67% of Lupus protoplanetary disks have dust radii smaller than 30 au, with new substructures detected in 11, showing some of the shortest separation gaps. The size-luminosity relation in Lupus aligns well with a drift-dominated dust evolution scenario and, for the most compact disks (< 30 au), we found dust masses ranging from 0.3 to 26.3 Earth masses. Assuming that the detected substructures were dynamical effects of planets, we estimated the planet masses to range from 20 to 2000 Earth masses with separations between 2 to 74 au. Our results indicate that two-thirds of the protoplanetary disks in Lupus are smooth, and compact, with substructures being more prominent in the few larger disks. These compact disks are consistent with drift-dominated evolution, with their masses and optical depths suggesting that they may have already experienced some planet formation, with most of the small solids converted into planetesimals and planets. This makes them prime candidates, for explaining the formation and origin of super-Earths. [Abridged]

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arXiv2025

Signatures of Atmospheric Mass Loss and Planet Migration in the Time Evolution of Short-Period Transiting Exoplanets

Comparative studies of young and old exoplanet populations offer a glimpse into how planets may form and evolve with time. We present an occurrence rate study of short-period ($<$12 days) planets between 1.8--10 Rearth around 1374 FGK stars in nearby (200 pc) young clusters ($<$1 Gyr), utilizing data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. These planets represent a population closer to their primordial state. We find that the occurrence rate of young planets is higher ($64^{+32}_{-22}$%) compared to the Gyr-old population observed by \kepler ($7.98^{+0.37}_{-0.35}$%). Dividing our sample into bins of young (10--100 Myr) and intermediate (100\,Myr--1 Gyr) ages, we also find that the occurrence distribution in orbital period remains unchanged while the distribution in planet radius changes with time. Specifically, the radius distribution steepens with age, indicative of a larger planet population shrinking due to the atmospheric thermal cooling and mass loss. We also find evidence for an increase (1.9$σ$) in occurrence after 100 Myr, possibly due to tidal migration driving planets inside of 12 days. While evidence suggests post-disk migration and atmospheric mass loss shape the population of short-period planets, more detections of young planets are needed to improve statistical comparisons with older planets. Detecting long-period young planets and planets $<$1.8 Rearth will help us understand these processes better. Additionally, studying young planetary atmospheres provides insights into planet formation and the efficiency of atmospheric mass loss mechanisms on the evolution of planetary systems.

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arXiv2024

Exoplanet Populations and their Dependence on Host Star Properties

Exoplanets around different types of stars provide a window into the diverse environments in which planets form. This chapter describes the observed relations between exoplanet populations and stellar properties and how they connect to planet formation in protoplanetary disks. Giant planets occur more frequently around more metal-rich and more massive stars. These findings support the core accretion theory of planet formation, in which the cores of giant planets form more rapidly in more solid-rich and more gas-rich protoplanetary disks. Smaller planets, those with sizes roughly between Earth and Neptune, exhibit different scaling relations with stellar properties. These planets orbit stars with a range of metallicities and occur more frequently around lower mass stars, indicating that planet formation takes place in a wide range of environments. Within M dwarfs, both radial velocity and transit surveys show that planets are smaller and located closer to the star when the stellar mass is lower. Additions to the core accretion model, in particular pebble accretion, have shown success in explaining the enhanced planet formation efficiency around low mass stars.

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arXiv2024

Small and Large Dust Cavities in Disks around mid-M Stars in Taurus

High-angular resolution imaging by ALMA has revealed the near-universality and diversity of substructures in protoplanetary disks. However, disks around M-type pre-main-sequence stars are still poorly sampled, despite the prevalence of M-dwarfs in the galaxy. Here we present high-resolution (~50 mas, 8 au) ALMA Band 6 observations of six disks around mid-M stars in Taurus. We detect dust continuum emission in all six disks, 12CO in five disks, and 13CO line in two disks. The size ratios between gas and dust disks range from 1.6 to 5.1. The ratio of about 5 for 2M0436 and 2M0450 indicates efficient dust radial drift. Four disks show rings and cavities and two disks are smooth. The cavity sizes occupy a wide range: 60 au for 2M0412, and ~10 au for 2M0434, 2M0436 and 2M0508. Detailed visibility modeling indicates that small cavities of 1.7 and 5.7 au may hide in the two smooth disks 2M0450 and CIDA 12. We perform radiative transfer fitting of the infrared SEDs to constrain the cavity sizes, finding that micron-sized dust grains may have smaller cavities than millimeter grains. Planet-disk interactions are the preferred explanation to produce the large 60 au cavity, while other physics could be responsible for the three ~10 au cavities under current observations and theories. Currently, disks around mid-to-late M stars in Taurus show a higher detection frequency of cavities than earlier type stars, although a more complete sample is needed to evaluate any dependence of substructure on stellar mass.

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arXiv2024

Where are the Water Worlds? Identifying the Exo-water-worlds Using Models of Planet Formation and Atmospheric Evolution

Planet formation models suggest that the small exoplanets that migrate from beyond the snowline of the protoplanetary disk likely contain water-ice-rich cores ($\sim 50\%$ by mass), also known as the water worlds. While the observed radius valley of the Kepler planets is well explained with the atmospheric dichotomy of the rocky planets, precise measurements of mass and radius of the transiting planets hint at the existence of these water worlds. However, observations cannot confirm the core compositions of those planets owing to the degeneracy between the density of a bare water-ice-rich planet and the bulk density of a rocky planet with a thin atmosphere. We combine different formation models from the Genesis library with atmospheric escape models, such as photo-evaporation and impact stripping, to simulate planetary systems consistent with the observed radius valley. We then explore the possibility of water worlds being present in the currently observed sample by comparing them with the simulated planets in the mass-radius-orbital period space. We find that the migration models suggest $\gtrsim 10\%$ and $\gtrsim 20\%$ of the bare planets, i.e. planets without primordial H/He atmospheres, to be water-ice-rich around G- and M-type host stars respectively, consistent with the mass-radius distributions of the observed planets. However, most of the water worlds are predicted to be outside a period of 10 days. A unique identification of water worlds through radial velocity and transmission spectroscopy is likely to be more successful when targeting such planets with longer orbital periods.

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arXiv2023

No Evidence for More Earth-sized Planets in the Habitable Zone of Kepler's M versus FGK Stars

Reliable detections of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone remain elusive in the Kepler sample, even for M dwarfs. The Kepler sample was once thought to contain a considerable number of M dwarf stars ($T_\mathrm{eff} < 4000$ K), which hosted enough Earth-sized ($[0.5,1.5]$ R$_\oplus$) planets to estimate their occurrence rate ($η_\oplus$) in the habitable zone. However, updated stellar properties from Gaia have shifted many Kepler stars to earlier spectral type classifications, with most stars (and their planets) now measured to be larger and hotter than previously believed. Today, only one partially-reliable Earth-sized candidate remains in the optimistic habitable zone, and zero in the conservative zone. Here we performed a new investigation of Kepler's Earth-sized planets orbiting M dwarf stars, using occurrence rate models with considerations of updated parameters and candidate reliability. Extrapolating our models to low instellations, we found an occurrence rate of $η_\oplus={8.58}_{-8.22}^{+17.94}\%$ for the conservative habitable zone (and ${14.22}_{-12.71}^{+24.96}\%$ for the optimistic), consistent with previous works when considering the large uncertainties. Comparing these estimates to those from similarly comprehensive studies of Sun-like stars, we found that the current Kepler sample does not offer evidence to support an increase in $η_\oplus$ from FGK to M stars. While the Kepler sample is too sparse to resolve an occurrence trend between early and mid-to-late M dwarfs for Earth-sized planets, studies including larger planets and/or data from the K2 and TESS missions are well-suited to this task.

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arXiv2023

Using Photometrically-Derived Properties of Young Stars to Refine TESS's Transiting Young Planet Survey Completeness

The demographics of young exoplanets can shed light onto their formation and evolution processes. Exoplanet properties are derived from the properties of their host stars. As such, it is important to accurately characterize the host stars since any systematic biases in their derivation can negatively impact the derivation of planetary properties. Here, we present a uniform catalog of photometrically-derived stellar effective temperatures, luminosities, radii, and masses for 4,865 young (<1 Gyr) stars in 31 nearby clusters and moving groups within 200 pc. We compared our photometrically-derived properties to a subset of those derived from spectra, and found them to be in good agreement. We also investigated the effect of stellar properties on the detection efficiency of transiting short-period young planets with TESS as calculated in Fernandes et al. 2022, and found an overall increase in the detection efficiency when the new photometrically derived properties were taken into account. Most notably, there is a 1.5 times increase in the detection efficiencies for sub-Neptunes/Neptunes (1.8-6 Re) implying that, for our sample of young stars, better characterization of host star properties can lead to the recovery of more small transiting planets. Our homogeneously derived catalog of updated stellar properties, along with a larger unbiased stellar sample and more detections of young planets, will be a crucial input to the accurate estimation of the occurrence rates of young short-period planets.

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arXiv2023

The Effect of Dust Evolution and Traps on Inner Disk Water Enrichment

Substructures in protoplanetary disks can act as dust traps that shape the radial distribution of pebbles. By blocking the passage of pebbles, the presence of gaps in disks may have a profound effect on pebble delivery into the inner disk, crucial for the formation of inner planets via pebble accretion. This process can also affect the delivery of volatiles (such as H$_2$O) and their abundance within the water snow line region (within a few au). In this study, we aim to understand what effect the presence of gaps in the outer gas disk may have on water vapor enrichment in the inner disk. Building on previous work, we employ a volatile-inclusive multi-Myr disk evolution model that considers an evolving ice-bearing drifting dust population, sensitive to dust-traps, which loses its icy content to sublimation upon reaching the snow line. We find that vapor abundance in the inner disk is strongly affected by fragmentation velocity (v$_{\rm f}$) and turbulence, which control how intense vapor enrichment from pebble delivery is, if present, and how long it may last. Generally, for disks with low to moderate turbulence ($α$ $\le$ 1 $\times$ 10$^{-3}$) and for a range of v$_{\rm f}$, radial location, and gap depth (especially that of the innermost gaps), can significantly alter enrichment. Shallow inner gaps may continuously leak material from beyond it, despite the presence of additional deep outer gaps. We finally find that the for realistic v$_{\rm f}$ ($\le$ 10 m s$^{-1}$), presence of gaps is more important than planetesimal formation beyond the snow line in regulating pebble and volatile delivery into the inner disk.

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arXiv2023

Planet Formation Theory in the Era of ALMA and Kepler: from Pebbles to Exoplanets

Our understanding of planet formation has been rapidly evolving in recent years. The classical planet formation theory, developed when the only known planetary system was our own Solar System, has been revised to account for the observed diversity of the exoplanetary systems. At the same time, the increasing observational capabilities of the young stars and their surrounding disks bring new constraints on the planet formation process. In this chapter, we summarize the new information derived from the exoplanets population and the circumstellar disks observations. We present the new developments in planet formation theory, from dust evolution to the growth of planetary cores by accretion of planetesimals, pebbles, and gas. We review the state-of-the-art models for the formation of diverse planetary systems, including the population synthesis approach which is necessary to compare theoretical model outcomes to the exoplanet population. We emphasize that the planet formation process may not be spatially uniform in the disk and there are preferential locations for the formation of planetesimals and planets. Outside of these locations, a significant fraction of solids is not growing past the pebble-sizes. The reservoir of pebbles plays an important role in the growth of planetary cores in the pebble accretion process. The timescale of the emergence of massive planetary cores is an important aspect of the present models and it is likely that the cores within one disk form at different times. In addition, there is growing evidence that the first planetary cores start forming early, during the circumstellar disk buildup process.

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arXiv2023

Enabling Exoplanet Demographics Studies with Standardized Exoplanet Survey Meta-Data

Goal 1 of the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Mathematics Exoplanet Science Strategy is "to understand the formation and evolution of planetary systems as products of the process of star formation, and characterize and explain the diversity of planetary system architectures, planetary compositions, and planetary environments produced by these processes", with the finding that "Current knowledge of the demographics and characteristics of planets and their systems is substantially incomplete." One significant roadblock to our ongoing efforts to improve our demographics analyses is the lack of comprehensive meta-data accompanying published exoplanet surveys. The Exoplanet Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG) Science Interest Group 2: Exoplanet Demographics has prepared this document to provide guidance to survey architects, authors, referees and funding agencies as to the most valuable such data products for five different exoplanet detection techniques - transit, radial velocity, direct imaging, microlensing and astrometry. We find that making these additional data easily available would greatly enhance the community's ability to perform robust, reproducible demographics analyses, and make progress on achieving the most important goals identified by the exoplanet and wider astronomical community.

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