arXiv subjects

Gilles Pagès

Publications and source records attributed to Gilles Pagès.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Optimal dual quantizers of $1D$ $\log$-concave distributions: uniqueness and Lloyd like algorithm

We establish for dual quantization the counterpart of Kieffer's uniqueness result for compactly supported one dimensional probability distributions having a $\log$-concave density (also called strongly unimodal): for such distributions, $L^r$-optimal dual quantizers are unique at each level $N$, the optimal grid being the unique critical point of the quantization error. An example of non-strongly unimodal distribution for which uniqueness of critical points fails is exhibited. In the quadratic $r=2$ case, we propose an algorithm to compute the unique optimal dual quantizer. It provides a counterpart of Lloyd's method~I algorithm in a Voronoi framework. Finally semi-closed forms of $L^r$-optimal dual quantizers are established for power distributions on compacts intervals and truncated exponential distributions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Stationary Heston model: Calibration and Pricing of exotics using Product Recursive Quantization

A major drawback of the Standard Heston model is that its implied volatility surface does not produce a steep enough smile when looking at short maturities. For that reason, we introduce the Stationary Heston model where we replace the deterministic initial condition of the volatility by its invariant measure and show, based on calibrated parameters, that this model produce a steeper smile for short maturities than the Standard Heston model. We also present numerical solution based on Product Recursive Quantization for the evaluation of exotic options (Bermudan and Barrier options).

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2020

New Weak Error bounds and expansions for Optimal Quantization

We propose new weak error bounds and expansion in dimension one for optimal quantization-based cubature formula for different classes of functions, such that piecewise affine functions, Lipschitz convex functions or differentiable function with piecewise-defined locally Lipschitz or $α$-Hölder derivatives. This new results rest on the local behaviors of optimal quantizers, the $L^r$-$L^s$ distribution mismatch problem and Zador's Theorem. This new expansion supports the definition of a Richardson-Romberg extrapolation yielding a better rate of convergence for the cubature formula. An extension of this expansion is then proposed in higher dimension for the first time. We then propose a novel variance reduction method for Monte Carlo estimators, based on one dimensional optimal quantizers.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Quantization-based Bermudan option pricing in the $FX$ world

This paper proposes two numerical solution based on Product Optimal Quantization for the pricing of Foreign Echange (FX) linked long term Bermudan options e.g. Bermudan Power Reverse Dual Currency options, where we take into account stochastic domestic and foreign interest rates on top of stochastic FX rate, hence we consider a 3-factor model. For these two numerical methods, we give an estimation of the $L^2$-error induced by such approximations and we illustrate them with market-based examples that highlight the speed of such methods.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

New approach to greedy vector quantization

We extend some rate of convergence results of greedy quantization sequences already investigated in arXiv:1409.0732 [math.PR]. We show, for a more general class of distributions satisfying a certain control, that the quantization error of these sequences have an $n^{-\frac1d}$ rate of convergence and that the distortion mismatch property is satisfied. We will give some non-asymptotic Pierce type estimates. The recursive character of greedy vector quantization allows some improvements to the algorithm of computation of these sequences and the implementation of a recursive formula to quantization-based numerical integration. Furthermore, we establish further properties of sub-optimality of greedy quantization sequences.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Convergence rate of optimal quantization grids and application to empirical measure

We study the convergence rate of the optimal quantization for a probability measure sequence $(μ_{n})_{n\in\mathbb{N}^{*}}$ on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ converging in the Wasserstein distance in two aspects: the first one is the convergence rate of optimal quantizer $x^{(n)}\in(\mathbb{R}^{d})^{K}$ of $μ_{n}$ at level $K$; the other one is the convergence rate of the distortion function valued at $x^{(n)}$, called the "performance" of $x^{(n)}$. Moreover, we also study the mean performance of the optimal quantization for the empirical measure of a distribution $μ$ with finite second moment but possibly unbounded support. As an application, we show that the mean performance for the empirical measure of the multidimensional normal distribution $\mathcal{N}(m, Σ)$ and of distributions with hyper-exponential tails behave like $\mathcal{O}(\frac{\log n}{\sqrt{n}})$. This extends the results from [BDL08] obtained for compactly supported distribution. We also derive an upper bound which is sharper in the quantization level $K$ but suboptimal in $n$ by applying results in [FG15].

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Characterization of probability distribution convergence in Wasserstein distance by $L^{p}$-quantization error function

We establish conditions to characterize probability measures by their $L^{p}$-quantization error functions in both $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ and Hilbert settings. This characterization is two-fold: static (identity of two distributions) and dynamic (convergence for the $L^p$-Wasserstein distance). We first propose a criterion on the quantization level $N$, valid for any norm on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ and any order $p$ based on a geometrical approach involving the Voronoï diagram. Then, we prove that in the $L^2$-case on a (separable) Hilbert space, the condition on the level $N$ can be reduced to $N=2$, which is optimal. More quantization based characterization cases on dimension 1 and a discussion of the completeness of a distance defined by the quantization error function can be found in the end of this paper.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

A general weak and strong error analysis of the recursive quantization with an application to jump diffusions

Observing that the recent developments of the recursive (product) quantization method induces a family of Markov chains which includes all standard discretization schemes of diffusions processes , we propose to compute a general error bound induced by the recursive quantization schemes using this generic markovian structure. Furthermore, we compute a marginal weak error for the recursive quantization. We also extend the recursive quantization method to the Euler scheme associated to diffusion processes with jumps, which still have this markovian structure, and we say how to compute the recursive quantization and the associated weights and transition weights.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Weak error for nested Multilevel Monte Carlo

This article discusses MLMC estimators with and without weights, applied to nested expectations of the form E [f (E [F (Y, Z)|Y ])]. More precisely, we are interested on the assumptions needed to comply with the MLMC framework, depending on whether the payoff function f is smooth or not. A new result to our knowledge is given when f is not smooth in the development of the weak error at an order higher than 1, which is needed for a successful use of MLMC estimators with weights.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Non-Asymptotic Gaussian Estimates for the Recursive Approximation of the Invariant Measure of a Diffusion

We obtain non-asymptotic Gaussian concentration bounds for the difference between the invariant measure $ν$ of an ergodic Brownian diffusion process and the empirical distribution of an approximating scheme with decreasing time step along a suitable class of (smooth enough) test functions f such that f -- $ν$(f) is a coboundary of the infinitesimal generator. We show that these bounds can still be improved when the (squared) Fr{ö}benius norm of the diffusion coefficient lies in this class. We apply these bounds to design computable non-asymptotic confidence intervals for the approximating scheme. As a theoretical application, we finally derive non-asymptotic deviation bounds for the almost sure Central Limit Theorem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Nonlinear Randomized Urn Models: a Stochastic Approximation Viewpoint

This paper extends the link between stochastic approximation (SA) theory and randomized urn models developed in Laruelle, Pag{è}s (2013), and their applications to clinical trials introduced in Bai, HU (1999,2005) and Bai, Hu, Shen (2002). We no longer assume that the drawing rule is uniform among the balls of the urn (which contains d colors), but can be reinforced by a function f. This is a way to model risk aversion. Firstly, by considering that f is concave or convex and by reformulating the dynamics of the urn composition as an SA algorithm with remainder, we derive the a.s. convergence and the asymptotic normality (Central Limit Theorem, CLT) of the normalized procedure by calling upon the so-called ODE and SDE methods. An in-depth analysis of the case d=2 exhibits two different behaviors: A single equilibrium point when f is concave, and when f is convex, a transition phase from a single attracting equilibrium to a system with two attracting and one repulsive equilibrium points. The last setting is solved using results on non-convergence toward noisy and noiseless "traps" in order to deduce the a.s. convergence toward one of the attracting points. Secondly, the special case of a Polya urn (when the addition rule is the identity matrix) is analyzed, still using result from SA theory about "traps". Finally, these results are applied to a function with regular variation and to an optimal asset allocation in Finance.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Recursive computation of the invariant distribution of Markov and Feller processes

This paper provides a general and abstract approach to approximate ergodic regimes of Markov and Feller processes. More precisely, we show that the recursive algorithm presented in Lamberton & Pages (2002) and based on simulation algorithms of stochastic schemes with decreasing step can be used to build invariant measures for general Markov and Feller processes. We also propose applications in three different configurations: Approximation of Markov switching Brownian diffusion ergodic regimes using Euler scheme, approximation of Markov Brownian diffusion ergodic regimes with Milstein scheme and approximation of general diffusions with jump components ergodic regimes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Recursive computation of the invariant distributions of Feller processes: Revisited examples and new applications

In this paper, we show that the abstract framework developed in Pages & Rey (2017) and inspired by Lamberton & Pages (2002) can be used to build invariant distributions for Brownian diffusion processes using the Milstein scheme and for diffusion processes with censored jump using the Euler scheme. Both studies rely on a weakly mean reverting setting for both cases. For the Milstein scheme we prove the convergence for test functions with polynomial (Wasserstein convergence) and exponential growth. For the Euler scheme of diffusion processes with censored jump we prove the convergence for test functions with polynomial growth.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Improved error bounds for quantization based numerical schemes for BSDE and nonlinear filtering

We take advantage of recent and new results on optimal quantization theory to improve the quadratic optimal quantization error bounds for backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) and nonlinear filtering problems. For both problems, a first improvement relies on a Pythagoras like Theorem for quantized conditional expectation. While allowing for some locally Lipschitz functions conditional densities in nonlinear filtering, the analysis of the error brings into playing a new robustness result about optimal quantizers, the so-called distortion mismatch property: $L^r$-quadratic optimal quantizers of size $N$ behave in $L^s$ in term of mean error at the same rate $N^{-\frac 1d}$, $0<s< r+d$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Product Markovian quantization of an R^d -valued Euler scheme of a diffusion process with applications to finance

We introduce a new approach to quantize the Euler scheme of an $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued diffusion process. This method is based on a Markovian and componentwise product quantization and allows us, from a numerical point of view, to speak of {\em fast online quantization} in dimension greater than one since the product quantization of the Euler scheme of the diffusion process and its companion weights and transition probabilities may be computed quite instantaneously. We show that the resulting quantization process is a Markov chain, then, we compute the associated companion weights and transition probabilities from (semi-) closed formulas. From the analytical point of view, we show that the induced quantization errors at the $k$-th discretization step $t_k$ is a cumulative of the marginal quantization error up to time $t_k$. Numerical experiments are performed for the pricing of a Basket call option, for the pricing of a European call option in a Heston model and for the approximation of the solution of backward stochastic differential equations to show the performances of the method.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Randomized Urn Models revisited using Stochastic Approximation

This paper presents the link between stochastic approximation and clinical trials based on randomized urn models investigated in Bai and Hu (1999,2005) and Bai, Hu and Shen (2002). We reformulate the dynamics of both the urn composition and the assigned treatments as standard stochastic approximation (SA) algorithms with remainder. Then, we derive the a.s. convergence and the asymptotic normality (CLT) of the normalized procedure under less stringent assumptions by calling upon the ODE and SDE methods. As a second step, we investigate a more involved family of models, known as multi-arm clinical trials, where the urn updating depends on the past performances of the treatments. By increasing the dimension of the state vector, our SA approach provides this time a new asymptotic normality result.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Limit theorems for weighted and regular Multilevel estimators

We aim at analyzing in terms of a.s. convergence and weak rate the performances of the Multilevel Monte Carlo estimator (MLMC) introduced in [Gil08] and of its weighted version, the Multilevel Richardson Romberg estimator (ML2R), introduced in [LP14]. These two estimators permit to compute a very accurate approximation of $I_0 = \mathbb{E}[Y_0]$ by a Monte Carlo type estimator when the (non-degenerate) random variable $Y_0 \in L^2(\mathbb{P})$ cannot be simulated (exactly) at a reasonable computational cost whereas a family of simulatable approximations $(Y_h)_{h \in \mathcal{H}}$ is available. We will carry out these investigations in an abstract framework before applying our results, mainly a Strong Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem, to some typical fields of applications: discretization schemes of diffusions and nested Monte Carlo.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Weighted Multilevel Langevin Simulation of Invariant Measures

We investigate a weighted Multilevel Richardson-Romberg extrapolation for the ergodic approximation of invariant distributions of diffusions adapted from the one introduced in~[Lemaire-Pagès, 2013] for regular Monte Carlo simulation. In a first result, we prove under weak confluence assumptions on the diffusion, that for any integer $R\ge2$, the procedure allows us to attain a rate $n^{\frac{R}{2R+1}}$ whereas the original algorithm convergence is at a weak rate $n^{1/3}$. Furthermore, this is achieved without any explosion of the asymptotic variance. In a second part, under stronger confluence assumptions and with the help of some second order expansions of the asymptotic error, we go deeper in the study by optimizing the choice of the parameters involved by the method. In particular, for a given $\varepsilon\textgreater{}0$, we exhibit some semi-explicit parameters for which the number of iterations of the Euler scheme required to attain a Mean-Squared Error lower than $\varepsilon^2$ is about $\varepsilon^{-2}\log(\varepsilon^{-1})$. Finally, we numerically this Multilevel Langevin estimator on several examples including the simple one-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process but also on a high dimensional diffusion motivated by a statistical problem. These examples confirm the theoretical efficiency of the method.

math.PR↗