arXiv subjects

Giovanni Mellace

Publications and source records attributed to Giovanni Mellace.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Long-Term Health and Human Capital Effects of Universal Health Care and Mass Literacy: Evidence from Cuba

We estimate long-run effects of Cuba's 1961 National Health Service and contemporaneous National Literacy Campaign using synthetic-control methods on newly assembled series for 21 former European colonies in the Americas, 1900--2022. Relative to synthetic Cuba, infant mortality falls 15--29 percent and average years of schooling rise 1.5--2 years; both effects are large, persistent, and robust to augmented SCM, synthetic difference-in-differences, interactive fixed effects, and matrix completion. Life-expectancy gains attenuate after 1990, consistent with the post-Soviet Special Period, suggesting that bundled health and literacy reforms permanently raise early-life survival and human capital, with smaller and less robust effects on adult longevity.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Jackknife Instrumental Variable Inference

This paper introduces a class of jackknife-based test statistics for linear regression models with endogeneity and heteroskedasticity in the presence of many potentially weak instrumental variables. The tests may be used when considering hypotheses on the full parameter vector or hypotheses defined as linear restrictions. We show that in the limit and under the null the proposed statistics are distributed as a combination of chi squares but by modifying the objective function we derive more familiar chi square limits. An extensive simulation study shows the competitive finite sample properties of the proposed tests in particular against Anderson-Rubin-type of statistics. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration that applies the proposed tests to study the effect of alcohol consumption on body mass index using genetic variants as instrumental variables using the UK Biobank.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Gender Differences in Healthcare Utilisation: Causal Evidence from Unexpected Adverse Health Shocks

Women live longer than men yet report worse health. One common reading of this male-female health-survival paradox is that women also engage more with healthcare. We challenge that reading with causal evidence from the plausibly random timing of first-time non-fatal heart attacks and strokes in Danish administrative data. After such a shock, men increase their statin use and their general-practitioner visits substantially more than women. We find no evidence that the gap reflects a lower willingness among women to seek or take up care: men and women fill the same number of prescriptions, but women receive lower doses per fill, and the gap widens across drug classes where physicians have more discretion over what to prescribe. This points to provider behaviour rather than patient demand. Despite the additional treatment, men fare no better than women on mortality or morbidity, or on the labour-market outcomes we can measure. Given women's general survival advantage, this suggests women might have fared even better had they been treated as intensively as men. The gap arises even within a universal healthcare system and a country with comparatively low gender inequality, so removing barriers to access is not by itself sufficient to close it.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Causal Inference for Qualitative Outcomes

Causal inference methods such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences are widely used to identify and estimate treatment effects. However, when outcomes are qualitative, their application poses fundamental challenges. This paper highlights these challenges and proposes an alternative framework that focuses on well-defined and interpretable estimands. We show that conventional identification assumptions suffice for identifying the new estimands and outline simple, intuitive estimation strategies that remain fully compatible with conventional econometric methods. We provide an accompanying open-source R package, $\texttt{causalQual}$, which is publicly available on CRAN.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

The inclusive Synthetic Control Method

We introduce the inclusive synthetic control method (iSCM), a modification of synthetic control methods that includes units in the donor pool potentially affected, directly or indirectly, by an intervention. This method is ideal for situations where including treated units in the donor pool is essential or where donor units may experience spillover effects. The iSCM is straightforward to implement with most synthetic control estimators. As an empirical illustration, we re-estimate the causal effect of German reunification on GDP per capita, accounting for spillover effects from West Germany to Austria.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Nudging Nutrition: Lessons from the Danish "Fat Tax"

In October 2011, Denmark introduced the world's first and, to date, only tax targeting saturated fat. However, this tax was subsequently abolished in January 2013. Leveraging exogenous variation from untaxed Northern-German consumers, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the causal effects of both the implementation and repeal of the tax on consumption and expenditure behavior across eight product categories targeted by the tax. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity in the tax's impact across these products. During the taxed period, there was a notable decline in consumption of bacon, liver sausage, and cheese, particularly among low-income households. In contrast, expenditure on butter, cream, and margarine increased as prices rose. Interestingly, we do not observe any difference in expenditure increases between high and low-income households, suggesting that the latter were disproportionately affected by the tax. After the repeal of the tax, we do not observe any significant decline in consumption. On the contrary, there was an overall increase in consumption for certain products, prompting concerns about unintended consequences resulting from the brief implementation of the tax. Finally, we find strong evidence on an overall increase purchases of butter abroad for households living less than 50 km from the German boarder but we do not find strong evidence of spatial heterogeneous effects of the tax.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

On the Role of the Zero Conditional Mean Assumption for Causal Inference in Linear Models

Many econometrics textbooks imply that under mean independence of the regressors and the error term, the OLS parameters have a causal interpretation. We show that even when this assumption is satisfied, OLS might identify a pseudo-parameter that does not have a causal interpretation. Even assuming that the linear model is "structural" creates some ambiguity in what the regression error represents and whether the OLS estimand is causal. This issue applies equally to linear IV and panel data models. To give these estimands a causal interpretation, one needs to impose assumptions on a "causal" model, e.g., using the potential outcome framework. This highlights that causal inference requires causal, and not just stochastic, assumptions.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control

The synthetic control method (SCM) allows estimating the causal effect of an intervention in settings where panel data on a small number of treated and control units are available. We show that the existing SCM, as well as its extensions, can be easily modified to estimate how much of the ``total'' effect goes through observed causal channels. Our new mediation analysis synthetic control (MASC) method requires additional assumptions that are arguably mild in many settings. We illustrate the implementation of MASC in an empirical application estimating the direct and indirect effects of an anti-smoking intervention (California's Proposition 99).

stat.AP↗