arXiv subjects

Giovanni Saraceno

Publications and source records attributed to Giovanni Saraceno.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Towards a Geometric Characterization of Multiverse Analysis

Multiverse analysis makes explicit how empirical conclusions depend on alternative, defensible analytical specifications. Standard approaches usually generate the multiverse first and then summarize it through decision tables, specification curves, model weights, or scalar outputs such as estimates and \textit{p}-values. This stagewise view is useful, but it can hide how inferential uncertainty is arranged across specifications. We propose a distributional-geometric framework in which each admissible specification is represented by a probability distribution on a common target-output space. After defining a suitable distance between these distributions, the induced geometry allows the multiverse of analyses to be studied through local neighbourhoods, diameters, Fréchet barycentres, and dispersion measures. Numerical examples alongside a real case study illustrate how the approach complements existing multiverse summaries by retaining both effect variation and uncertainty variation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Hellinger loss function for Generative Adversarial Networks

We propose Hellinger-type loss functions for training Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), motivated by the boundedness, symmetry, and robustness properties of the Hellinger distance. We define an adversarial objective based on this divergence and study its statistical properties within a general parametric framework. We establish the existence, uniqueness, consistency, and joint asymptotic normality of the estimators obtained from the adversarial training procedure. In particular, we analyze the joint estimation of both generator and discriminator parameters, offering a comprehensive asymptotic characterization of the resulting estimators. We introduce two implementations of the Hellinger-type loss and we evaluate their empirical behavior in comparison with the classic (Maximum Likelihood-type) GAN loss. Through a controlled simulation study, we demonstrate that both proposed losses yield improved estimation accuracy and robustness under increasing levels of data contamination.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

A unified framework for multivariate two-sample and k-sample kernel-based quadratic distance goodness-of-fit tests

In the statistical literature, as well as in artificial intelligence and machine learning, measures of discrepancy between two probability distributions are largely used to develop measures of goodness-of-fit. We concentrate on quadratic distances, which depend on a non-negative definite kernel. We propose a unified framework for the study of two-sample and k-sample goodness of fit tests based on the concept of matrix distance. We provide a succinct review of the goodness of fit literature related to the use of distance measures, and specifically to quadratic distances. We show that the quadratic distance kernel-based two-sample test has the same functional form with the maximum mean discrepancy test. We develop tests for the $k$-sample scenario, where the two-sample problem is a special case. We derive their asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis and discuss computational aspects of the test procedures. We assess their performance, in terms of level and power, via extensive simulations and a real data example. The proposed framework is implemented in the QuadratiK package, available in both R and Python environments.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Goodness-of-Fit and Clustering of Spherical Data: the QuadratiK package in R and Python

We introduce the QuadratiK package that incorporates innovative data analysis methodologies. The presented software, implemented in both R and Python, offers a comprehensive set of goodness-of-fit tests and clustering techniques using kernel-based quadratic distances, thereby bridging the gap between the statistical and machine learning literatures. Our software implements one, two and k-sample tests for goodness of fit, providing an efficient and mathematically sound way to assess the fit of probability distributions. Expanded capabilities of our software include supporting tests for uniformity on the d-dimensional Sphere based on Poisson kernel densities. Particularly noteworthy is the incorporation of a unique clustering algorithm specifically tailored for spherical data that leverages a mixture of Poisson kernel-based densities on the sphere. Alongside this, our software includes additional graphical functions, aiding the users in validating, as well as visualizing and representing clustering results. This enhances interpretability and usability of the analysis. In summary, our R and Python packages serve as a powerful suite of tools, offering researchers and practitioners the means to delve deeper into their data, draw robust inference, and conduct potentially impactful analyses and inference across a wide array of disciplines.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2024

Weighted likelihood methods for robust fitting of wrapped models for $p$-torus data

We consider robust estimation of wrapped models to multivariate circular data that are points on the surface of a $p$-torus based on the weighted likelihood methodology.Robust model fitting is achieved by a set of weighted likelihood estimating equations, based on the computation of data dependent weights aimed to down-weight anomalous values, such as unexpected directions that do not share the main pattern of the bulk of the data. Weighted likelihood estimating equations with weights evaluated on the torus orobtained after unwrapping the data onto the Euclidean space are proposed and compared. Asymptotic properties and robustness features of the estimators under study have been studied, whereas their finite sample behavior has been investigated by Monte Carlo numerical experiment and real data examples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

A Robust Seemingly Unrelated Regressions For Row-Wise And Cell-Wise Contamination

The Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model is a wide used estimation procedure in econometrics, insurance and finance, where very often, the regression model contains more than one equation. Unknown parameters, regression coefficients and covariances among the errors terms, are estimated using algorithms based on Generalized Least Squares or Maximum Likelihood, and the method, as a whole, is very sensitive to outliers. To overcome this problem M-estimators and S-estimators are proposed in the literature together with fast algorithms. However, these procedures are only able to cope with row-wise outliers in the error terms, while their performance becomes very poor in the presence of cell-wise outliers and as the number of equations increases. A new robust approach is proposed which is able to perform well under both contamination types as well as it is fast to compute. Illustrations based on Monte Carlo simulations and a real data example are provided.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Robust Multivariate Estimation Based On Statistical Depth Filters

In the classical contamination models, such as the gross-error (Huber and Tukey contamination model or Case-wise Contamination), observations are considered as the units to be identified as outliers or not. This model is very useful when the number of considered variables is moderately small. Alqallaf et al. [2009] shows the limits of this approach for a larger number of variables and introduced the Independent contamination model (Cell-wise Contamination) where now the cells are the units to be identified as outliers or not. One approach to deal, at the same time, with both type of contamination is filter out the contaminated cells from the data set and then apply a robust procedure able to handle case-wise outliers and missing values. Here we develop a general framework to build filters in any dimension based on statistical data depth functions. We show that previous approaches, e.g. Agostinelli et al. [2015a] and Leung et al. [2017], are special cases. We illustrate our method by using the half-space depth.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Robust Estimation for Multivariate Wrapped Models

A weighted likelihood technique for robust estimation of a multivariate Wrapped Normal distribution for data points scattered on a p-dimensional torus is proposed. The occurrence of outliers in the sample at hand can badly compromise inference for standard techniques such as maximum likelihood method. Therefore, there is the need to handle such model inadequacies in the fitting process by a robust technique and an effective down-weighting of observations not following the assumed model. Furthermore, the employ of a robust method could help in situations of hidden and unexpected substructures in the data. Here, it is suggested to build a set of data-dependent weights based on the Pearson residuals and solve the corresponding weighted likelihood estimating equations. In particular, robust estimation is carried out by using a Classification EM algorithm whose M-step is enhanced by the computation of weights based on current parameters' values. The finite sample behavior of the proposed method has been investigated by a Monte Carlo numerical studies and real data examples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Robust Estimation under Linear Mixed Models: The Minimum Density Power Divergence Approach

Many real-life data sets can be analyzed using Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). Since these are ordinarily based on normality assumptions, under small deviations from the model the inference can be highly unstable when the associated parameters are estimated by classical methods. On the other hand, the density power divergence (DPD) family, which measures the discrepancy between two probability density functions, has been successfully used to build robust estimators with high stability associated with minimal loss in efficiency. Here, we develop the minimum DPD estimator (MDPDE) for independent but non identically distributed observations in LMMs. We prove the theoretical properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality. The influence function and sensitivity measures are studied to explore the robustness properties. As a data based choice of the MDPDE tuning parameter $α$ is very important, we propose two candidates as "optimal" choices, where optimality is in the sense of choosing the strongest downweighting that is necessary for the particular data set. We conduct a simulation study comparing the proposed MDPDE, for different values of $α$, with the S-estimators, M-estimators and the classical maximum likelihood estimator, considering different levels of contamination. Finally, we illustrate the performance of our proposal on a real-data example.

stat.ME↗