arXiv subjects

Giulia Cencetti

Publications and source records attributed to Giulia Cencetti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Emerging Activity Temporal Hypergraph: a model for generating realistic time-varying hypergraphs

Time-varying group interactions constitute the building blocks of many complex systems. The framework of temporal hypergraphs makes it possible to represent them by taking into account the higher-order and temporal nature of the interactions. However, the corresponding datasets are often incomplete and/or limited in size and duration, and surrogate time-varying hypergraphs able to reproduce their statistical features constitute interesting substitutions, especially to understand how dynamical processes unfold on group interactions. Here, we present a new temporal hypergraph model, the Emerging Activity Temporal Hypergraph (EATH), which can be fed by parameters measured in a dataset and create synthetic datasets with similar properties. In the model, each node has an independent underlying activity dynamic and the overall system activity emerges from the nodes dynamics, with temporal group interactions resulting from both the activity of the nodes and memory mechanisms. We first show that the EATH model can generate surrogate hypergraphs of several empirical datasets of face-to-face interactions, mimicking temporal and topological properties at the node and hyperedge level. We also showcase the possibility to use the resulting synthetic data in simulations of higher-order contagion dynamics, comparing the outcome of such process on original and surrogate datasets. Finally, we illustrate the flexibility of the model, which can generate synthetic hypergraphs with tunable properties: as an example, we generate "hybrid" temporal hypergraphs, which mix properties of different empirical datasets. Our work opens several perspectives, from the generation of synthetic realistic hypergraphs describing contexts where data collection is difficult to a deeper understanding of dynamical processes on temporal hypergraphs.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics with Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for informing public health decisions and timely interventions. While Physics-Informed Neural Networks have shown promise in various scientific domains, their potential application to real-time epidemic forecasting remains underexplored. Here, we present SIR-INN, a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates the mechanistic structure of the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model into a neural network architecture. Trained once on synthetic epidemic scenarios, the model is able to generalize across epidemic conditions without retraining. From limited and noisy observations, SIR-INN infers key transmission parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo, generating probabilistic short- and long-term forecasts. We validate SIR-INN using national influenza data from the Italian National Institute of Health in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons. The model performs competitively with current state-of-the-art approaches, particularly in terms of Weighted Interval Score. It shows accurate predictive performance in nearly all phases of the outbreak, with improved accuracy observed for the 2024-2025 influenza season. Credible uncertainty intervals are consistently maintained, while coverage metrics highlight room for improvement in uncertainty calibration. SIR-INN offers a computationally efficient, transparent, and generalizable solution for epidemic forecasting, appropriately leveraging the framework's hybrid design. Its ability to provide real-time predictions of epidemic dynamics, together with uncertainty quantification, makes it a promising tool for real-world epidemic forecasting.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Community Aware Temporal Network Generation

The advantages of temporal networks in capturing complex dynamics, such as diffusion and contagion, has led to breakthroughs in real world systems across numerous fields. In the case of human behavior, face-to-face interaction networks enable us to understand the dynamics of how communities emerge and evolve in time through the interactions, which is crucial in fields like epidemics, sociological studies and urban science. However, state-of-the-art datasets suffer from a number of drawbacks, such as short time-span for data collection and a small number of participants. Moreover, concerns arise for the participants' privacy and the data collection costs. Over the past years, many successful algorithms for static networks generation have been proposed, but they often do not tackle the social structure of interactions or their temporal aspect. In this work, we extend a recent network generation approach to capture the evolution of interactions between different communities. Our method labels nodes based on their community affiliation and constructs surrogate networks that reflect the interactions of the original temporal networks between nodes with different labels. This enables the generation of synthetic networks that replicate realistic behaviors. We validate our approach by comparing structural measures between the original and generated networks across multiple face-to-face interaction datasets.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Generating surrogate temporal networks from mesoscale building blocks

Surrogate networks can constitute suitable replacements for real networks, in particular to study dynamical processes on networks, when only incomplete or limited datasets are available. As empirical datasets most often present complex features and interplays between structure and temporal evolution, creating surrogate data is however a challenging task, in particular for data describing time-resolved interactions between agents. Here we propose a method to generate surrogate temporal networks that mimic such observed datasets. The method is based on a decomposition of the original dataset into small temporal subnetworks encoding local structures on a short time scale. These are used as building blocks to generate a new synthetic temporal network that will hence inherit the shape of local interactions from the dataset. Moreover, we also take into account larger scale correlations on structural and temporal dimension, using them to inform the process of assembling the building blocks. We showcase the method by generating surrogate networks for several datasets of social interactions and comparing them to the original data on two complementary aspects. First, we show that the surrogate data possess complex structural and temporal features similar to the ones of the original data. Second, we simulate several dynamical processes, describing respectively epidemic spread, opinion formation and emergence of norms in a population, and compare the outcome of these processes on the generated and original datasets. We describe the method in detail and provide an implementation so that it can be easily used in future works based on temporally evolving networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Patterns in temporal networks with higher-order egocentric structures

The analysis of complex and time-evolving interactions like social dynamics represents a current challenge for the science of complex systems. Temporal networks stand as a suitable tool to schematise such systems, encoding all the appearing interactions between pairs of individuals in discrete time. Over the years, network science has developed many measures to analyse and compare temporal networks. Some of them imply a decomposition of the network into small pieces of interactions, i.e. only involving a few nodes for a short time range. Along this line, a possible way to decompose a network is to assume an egocentric perspective, i.e. to consider for each node the time evolution of its neighbourhood. This has been proposed by Longa et al. by defining the "egocentric temporal neighbourhood", which has proven a useful tool to characterise temporal networks relative to social interactions. However, this definition neglects group interactions (quite common in social domains) as they are always decomposed into pairwise connections.A more general framework that allows us to consider also larger interactions is represented by higher-order networks. Here, we generalise the description of social interactions by making use of hypergraphs, consequently, we generalise its decomposition into "hyper egocentric temporal neighbourhoods". This will allow us to analyse social interactions, to compare different datasets or different nodes inside a dataset, by taking into account the intrinsic complexity represented by higher-order interactions. Even if we limit the order of interactions to the second (triplets of nodes), our results reveal the importance of a higher-order representation. In fact, our analyses show second-order structures are responsible for the majority of the variability at all scales: between datasets, amongst nodes and over time.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Infection patterns in simple and complex contagion processes on networks

Contagion processes, representing the spread of infectious diseases, information, or social behaviors, are often schematized as taking place on networks, which encode for instance the interactions between individuals. The impact of the network structure on spreading process has been widely investigated, but not the reverse question: do different processes unfolding on a given network lead to different infection patterns? How do the infection patterns depend on a model's parameters or on the nature of the contagion processes? Here we address this issue by investigating the infection patterns for a variety of models. In simple contagion processes, where contagion events involve one connection at a time, we find that the infection patterns are extremely robust across models and parameters. In complex contagion models instead, in which multiple interactions are needed for a contagion event, non-trivial dependencies on models parameters emerge, as the infection pattern depends on the interplay between pairwise and group contagions. In models involving threshold mechanisms moreover, slight parameter changes can significantly impact the spreading paths. Our results show that it is possible to study crucial features of a spread from schematized models, and inform us on the variations between spreading patterns in processes of different nature.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Temporal clustering of social interactions trades-off disease spreading and knowledge diffusion

Non-pharmaceutical measures such as preventive quarantines, remote working, school and workplace closures, lockdowns, etc. have shown effectivenness from an epidemic control perspective; however they have also significant negative consequences on social life and relationships, work routines, and community engagement. In particular, complex ideas, work and school collaborations, innovative discoveries, and resilient norms formation and maintenance, which often require face-to-face interactions of two or more parties to be developed and synergically coordinated, are particularly affected. In this study, we propose an alternative hybrid solution that balances the slowdown of epidemic diffusion with the preservation of face-to-face interactions. Our approach involves a two-step partitioning of the population. First, we tune the level of node clustering, creating "social bubbles" with increased contacts within each bubble and fewer outside, while maintaining the average number of contacts in each network. Second, we tune the level of temporal clustering by pairing, for a certain time interval, nodes from specific social bubbles. Our results demonstrate that a hybrid approach can achieve better trade-offs between epidemic control and complex knowledge diffusion. The versatility of our model enables tuning and refining clustering levels to optimally achieve the desired trade-off, based on the potentially changing characteristics of a disease or knowledge diffusion process.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Distinguishing simple and complex contagion processes on networks

Contagion processes on networks, including disease spreading, information diffusion, or social behaviors propagation, can be modeled as simple contagion, i.e. involving one connection at a time, or as complex contagion, in which multiple interactions are needed for a contagion event. Empirical data on spreading processes however, even when available, do not easily allow to uncover which of these underlying contagion mechanisms is at work. We propose a strategy to discriminate between these mechanisms upon the observation of a single instance of a spreading process. The strategy is based on the observation of the order in which network nodes are infected, and on its correlations with their local topology: these correlations differ between processes of simple contagion, processes involving threshold mechanisms and processes driven by group interactions (i.e., by "higher-order" mechanisms). Our results improve our understanding of contagion processes and provide a method using only limited information to distinguish between several possible contagion mechanisms.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Emergence of complex network topologies from flow-weighted optimization of network efficiency

Transportation and distribution networks are a class of spatial networks that have been of interest in recent years. These networks are often characterized by the presence of complex structures such as central loops paired with peripheral branches, which can appear both in natural and man-made systems, such as subway and railway networks. In this study, we investigate the conditions for the emergence of these non-trivial topological structures in the context of human transportation in cities. We propose a minimal model for spatial networks generation, where a network lattice acts as a spatial substrate and edge velocities and distances define an effective temporal distance which quantifies the efficiency in exploring the urban space. Complex network topologies can be recovered from the optimization of joint network paths and we study how the interplay between a flow probability between two nodes in space and the associated travel cost influences the resulting optimal network. In the perspective of urban transportation we simulate these flows by means of human mobility models to obtain Origin-Destination matrices. We find that when using simple lattices, the obtained optimal topologies transition from tree-like structures to more regular networks, depending on the spatial range of flows. Remarkably, we find that branches paired to large loops structures appear as optimal structures when the network is optimized for an interplay between heterogeneous mobility patterns of small range travels and longer range ones typical of commuting. Finally, we show that our framework is able to recover the statistical spatial properties of the Greater London Area subway network.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Explaining the Explainers in Graph Neural Networks: a Comparative Study

Following a fast initial breakthrough in graph based learning, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have reached a widespread application in many science and engineering fields, prompting the need for methods to understand their decision process. GNN explainers have started to emerge in recent years, with a multitude of methods both novel or adapted from other domains. To sort out this plethora of alternative approaches, several studies have benchmarked the performance of different explainers in terms of various explainability metrics. However, these earlier works make no attempts at providing insights into why different GNN architectures are more or less explainable, or which explainer should be preferred in a given setting. In this survey, we fill these gaps by devising a systematic experimental study, which tests ten explainers on eight representative architectures trained on six carefully designed graph and node classification datasets. With our results we provide key insights on the choice and applicability of GNN explainers, we isolate key components that make them usable and successful and provide recommendations on how to avoid common interpretation pitfalls. We conclude by highlighting open questions and directions of possible future research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Generating fine-grained surrogate temporal networks

Temporal networks are essential for modeling and understanding systems whose behavior varies in time, from social interactions to biological systems. Often, however, real-world data are prohibitively expensive to collect in a large scale or unshareable due to privacy concerns. A promising way to bypass the problem consists in generating arbitrarily large and anonymized synthetic graphs with the properties of real-world networks, namely `surrogate networks'. Until now, the generation of realistic surrogate temporal networks has remained an open problem, due to the difficulty of capturing both the temporal and topological properties of the input network, as well as their correlations, in a scalable model. Here, we propose a novel and simple method for generating surrogate temporal networks. Our method decomposes the input network into star-like structures evolving in time. Then those structures are used as building blocks to generate a surrogate temporal network. Our model vastly outperforms current methods across multiple examples of temporal networks in terms of both topological and dynamical similarity. We further show that beyond generating realistic interaction patterns, our method is able to capture intrinsic temporal periodicity of temporal networks, all with an execution time lower than competing methods by multiple orders of magnitude. The simplicity of our algorithm makes it easily interpretable, extendable and algorithmically scalable.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

An Efficient Procedure for Mining Egocentric Temporal Motifs

Temporal graphs are structures which model relational data between entities that change over time. Due to the complex structure of data, mining statistically significant temporal subgraphs, also known as temporal motifs, is a challenging task. In this work, we present an efficient technique for extracting temporal motifs in temporal networks. Our method is based on the novel notion of egocentric temporal neighborhoods, namely multi-layer structures centered on an ego node. Each temporal layer of the structure consists of the first-order neighborhood of the ego node, and corresponding nodes in sequential layers are connected by an edge. The strength of this approach lies in the possibility of encoding these structures into a unique bit vector, thus bypassing the problem of graph isomorphism in searching for temporal motifs. This allows our algorithm to mine substantially larger motifs with respect to alternative approaches. Furthermore, by bringing the focus on the temporal dynamics of the interactions of a specific node, our model allows to mine temporal motifs which are visibly interpretable. Experiments on a number of complex networks of social interactions confirm the advantage of the proposed approach over alternative non-egocentric solutions. The egocentric procedure is indeed more efficient in revealing similarities and discrepancies among different social environments, independently of the different technologies used to collect data, which instead affect standard non-egocentric measures.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Simplicial contagion in temporal higher-order networks

Complex networks represent the natural backbone to study epidemic processes in populations of interacting individuals. Such a modeling framework, however, is naturally limited to pairwise interactions, making it less suitable to properly describe social contagion, where individuals acquire new norms or ideas after simultaneous exposure to multiple sources of infections. Simplicial contagion has been proposed as an alternative framework where simplices are used to encode group interactions of any order. The presence of higher-order interactions leads to explosive epidemic transitions and bistability which cannot be obtained when only dyadic ties are considered. In particular, critical mass effects can emerge even for infectivity values below the standard pairwise epidemic threshold, where the size of the initial seed of infectious nodes determines whether the system would eventually fall in the endemic or the healthy state. Here we extend simplicial contagion to time-varying networks, where pairwise and higher-order simplices can be created or destroyed over time. By following a microscopic Markov chain approach, we find that the same seed of infectious nodes might or might not lead to an endemic stationary state, depending on the temporal properties of the underlying network structure, and show that persistent temporal interactions anticipate the onset of the endemic state in finite-size systems. We characterize this behavior on higher-order networks with a prescribed temporal correlation between consecutive interactions and on heterogeneous simplicial complexes, showing that temporality again limits the effect of higher-order spreading, but in a less pronounced way than for homogeneous structures. Our work suggests the importance of incorporating temporality, a realistic feature of many real-world systems, into the investigation of dynamical processes beyond pairwise interactions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Temporal properties of higher-order interactions in social networks

Human social interactions in local settings can be experimentally detected by recording the physical proximity and orientation of people. Such interactions, approximating face-to-face communications, can be effectively represented as time varying social networks with links being unceasingly created and destroyed over time. Traditional analyses of temporal networks have addressed mostly pairwise interactions, where links describe dyadic connections among individuals. However, many network dynamics are hardly ascribable to pairwise settings but often comprise larger groups, which are better described by higher-order interactions. Here we investigate the higher-order organizations of temporal social networks by analyzing three publicly available datasets collected in different social settings. We find that higher-order interactions are ubiquitous and, similarly to their pairwise counterparts, characterized by heterogeneous dynamics, with bursty trains of rapidly recurring higher-order events separated by long periods of inactivity. We investigate the evolution and formation of groups by looking at the transition rates between different higher-order structures. We find that in more spontaneous social settings, group are characterized by slower formation and disaggregation, while in work settings these phenomena are more abrupt, possibly reflecting pre-organized social dynamics. Finally, we observe temporal reinforcement suggesting that the longer a group stays together the higher the probability that the same interaction pattern persist in the future. Our findings suggest the importance of considering the higher-order structure of social interactions when investigating human temporal dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Multiorder Laplacian for synchronization in higher-order networks

Traditionally, interaction systems have been described as networks, where links encode information on the pairwise influences among the nodes. Yet, in many systems, interactions take place in larger groups. Recent work has shown that higher-order interactions between oscillators can significantly affect synchronization. However, these early studies have mostly considered interactions up to 4 oscillators at time, and analytical treatments are limited to the all-to-all setting. Here, we propose a general framework that allows us to effectively study populations of oscillators where higher-order interactions of all possible orders are considered, for any complex topology described by arbitrary hypergraphs, and for general coupling functions. To this scope, we introduce a multi-order Laplacian whose spectrum determines the stability of the synchronized solution. Our framework is validated on three structures of interactions of increasing complexity. First, we study a population with all-to-all interactions at all orders, for which we can derive in a full analytical manner the Lyapunov exponents of the system, and for which we investigate the effect of including attractive and repulsive interactions. Second, we apply the multi-order Laplacian framework to synchronization on a synthetic model with heterogeneous higher-order interactions. Finally, we compare the dynamics of coupled oscillators with higher-order and pairwise couplings only, for a real dataset describing the macaque brain connectome, highlighting the importance of faithfully representing the complexity of interactions in real-world systems. Taken together, our multi-order Laplacian allows us to obtain a complete analytical characterization of the stability of synchrony in arbitrary higher-order networks, paving the way towards a general treatment of dynamical processes beyond pairwise interactions.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Generalized patterns from local and non local reactions

A class of systems is considered, where immobile species associated to distinct patches, the nodes of a network, interact both locally and at a long-range, as specified by an (interaction) adjacency matrix. Non local interactions are treated in a mean-field setting which enables the system to reach a homogeneous consensus state, either constant or time dependent. We provide analytical evidence that such homogeneous solution can turn unstable under externally imposed disturbances, following a symmetry breaking mechanism which anticipates the subsequent outbreak of the patterns. The onset of the instability can be traced back, via a linear stability analysis, to a dispersion relation that is shaped by the spectrum of an unconventional reactive Laplacian. The proposed mechanism prescinds from the classical Local Activation and Lateral Inhibition scheme, which sits at the core of the Turing recipe for diffusion driven instabilities. Examples of systems displaying a fixed-point or a limit cycle, in their uncoupled versions, are discussed. Taken together, our results pave the way for alternative mechanisms of pattern formation, opening new possibilities for modeling ecological, chemical and physical interacting systems.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2020

Networks beyond pairwise interactions: structure and dynamics

The complexity of many biological, social and technological systems stems from the richness of the interactions among their units. Over the past decades, a great variety of complex systems has been successfully described as networks whose interacting pairs of nodes are connected by links. Yet, in face-to-face human communication, chemical reactions and ecological systems, interactions can occur in groups of three or more nodes and cannot be simply described just in terms of simple dyads. Until recently, little attention has been devoted to the higher-order architecture of real complex systems. However, a mounting body of evidence is showing that taking the higher-order structure of these systems into account can greatly enhance our modeling capacities and help us to understand and predict their emerging dynamical behaviors. Here, we present a complete overview of the emerging field of networks beyond pairwise interactions. We first discuss the methods to represent higher-order interactions and give a unified presentation of the different frameworks used to describe higher-order systems, highlighting the links between the existing concepts and representations. We review the measures designed to characterize the structure of these systems and the models proposed in the literature to generate synthetic structures, such as random and growing simplicial complexes, bipartite graphs and hypergraphs. We introduce and discuss the rapidly growing research on higher-order dynamical systems and on dynamical topology. We focus on novel emergent phenomena characterizing landmark dynamical processes, such as diffusion, spreading, synchronization and games, when extended beyond pairwise interactions. We elucidate the relations between higher-order topology and dynamical properties, and conclude with a summary of empirical applications, providing an outlook on current modeling and conceptual frontiers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Random walks on hypergraphs

In the last twenty years network science has proven its strength in modelling many real-world interacting systems as generic agents, the nodes, connected by pairwise edges. Yet, in many relevant cases, interactions are not pairwise but involve larger sets of nodes, at a time. These systems are thus better described in the framework of hypergraphs, whose hyperedges effectively account for multi-body interactions. We hereby propose a new class of random walks defined on such higher-order structures, and grounded on a microscopic physical model where multi-body proximity is associated to highly probable exchanges among agents belonging to the same hyperedge. We provide an analytical characterisation of the process, deriving a general solution for the stationary distribution of the walkers. The dynamics is ultimately driven by a generalised random walk Laplace operator that reduces to the standard random walk Laplacian when all the hyperedges have size 2 and are thus meant to describe pairwise couplings. We illustrate our results on synthetic models for which we have a full control of the high-order structures, and real-world networks where higher-order interactions are at play. As a first application of the method, we compare the behaviour of random walkers on hypergraphs to that of traditional random walkers on the corresponding projected networks, drawing interesting conclusions on node rankings in collaboration networks. As a second application, we show how information derived from the random walk on hypergraphs can be successfully used for classification tasks involving objects with several features, each one represented by a hyperedge. Taken together, our work contributes to unveiling the effect of higher-order interactions on diffusive processes in higher-order networks, shading light on mechanisms at the hearth of biased information spreading in complex networked systems.

physics.soc-ph↗