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Giulia Di Nunno

Publications and source records attributed to Giulia Di Nunno.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

An Euler scheme for BSDEs via the Wiener chaos decomposition

The Euler scheme is a standard time discretization for BSDEs, but its implementation hinges on approximating conditional expectations and the associated martingale terms at each time step. We propose an implementation based on the Wiener chaos decomposition to approximate these quantities. In contrast to many numerical schemes that rely on a finite-dimensional Markovian representation, our approach accommodates arbitrary $\mathcal{F}_T$-measurable square-integrable terminal conditions. We provide a comprehensive convergence analysis under additional Malliavin regularity assumptions and illustrate the method on several numerical examples, including genuinely non-Markovian problems arising, for instance, in the pricing and hedging of contingent claims under rough-volatility models.

math.NA

Deep Operator BSDE: a Numerical Scheme to Approximate Solution Operators

Motivated by dynamic risk measures and conditional $g$-expectations, in this work we propose a numerical method to approximate the solution operator given by a Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (BSDE). The main ingredients for this are the Wiener chaos decomposition and the classical Euler scheme for BSDEs. We show convergence of this scheme under very mild assumptions, and provide a rate of convergence in more restrictive cases. We then implement it using neural networks, and we present several numerical examples where we can check the accuracy of the method.

math.NA

Hölder regularity for backward stochastic Volterra integral equations and applications to numerical schemes

We prove a Hölder-type regularity estimate for the martingale integrand of a backward stochastic Volterra integral equation (BSVIE). The estimate is formulated in $L^p(Ω)$ after averaging in $L^2$ over the first time variable, and gives an averaged Hölder estimate of order $1/2$ in the second time variable. Our approach is based on the approximation of the BSVIE by a system of BSDEs. For this system, we establish a uniform regularity estimate for the martingale component using Malliavin calculus, and then pass to the limit to obtain the result for the BSVIE. We allow for a general Malliavin differentiable free term and generator. In particular, neither is assumed to come from a forward stochastic differential equation or to have a specific functional form. We also propose an explicit Euler scheme for the approximating BSDE system and show that the regularity estimate yields a convergence rate for the resulting discrete approximation of the BSVIE.

math.PR

Capturing cash non-additivity and horizon risk via BSDEs and generalized shortfall

Whenever dealing with horizons of different times scales, risk evaluation of losses may incur in both interest rate uncertainty and horizon risk as introduced in [11]. With the goal to capture both effects, we work with cash subadditive fully-dynamic risk measures. In this work we consider such measures obtained via the BSDE and the shortfall approaches. We stress that we consider BSDEs both with Lipschitz and quadratic drivers. We then introduce the hq-entropic risk measure on losses as an effective example of fully-dynamic risk measure serving the scope. Shortfall risk measures are extended to capture cash non-additivity. For our newly introduced h-generalized shortfall risk measures we provide a dual representation and we connect them to fully-dynamic certainty equivalent. To conclude, we can see that the hq-entropic risk measures on losses belong to the family h-generalized shortfall, but they are not of certainty equivalent type. We note that the classical entropic risk measure, besides being generated by a BSDE, is also both a shortfall and a certainty equivalent.

q-fin.MF

Extinction and Persistence in a Stochastic Mpox Model with Hawkes-type Self-Excitation

We develop a stochastic human-rodent compartment model for Mpox transmission that combines diffusion noise with Hawkes self-exciting jumps in the human infection dynamics. Including Hawkes processes allows, for instance, to model the short but significant spikes in transmission happening after crowded events. For the coupled human-rodent system, we prove global existence, uniqueness and positivity of solutions, derive a basic reproduction number R_0 that guarantees almost sure extinction when R_0 < 1, and obtain explicit persistence-in-the-mean conditions for both infected rodents and humans, which define persistence thresholds for the joint dynamics. Numerical experiments show how clustered human transmission events, environmental variability and control measures shift these thresholds and shape the frequency and size of Mpox outbreaks.

math.DS

On a finite quasi birth-death process with catastrophes and its diffusion approximation

We study a multi-type Ehrenfest process modeled as a finite quasi-birth-death (QBD) process. We assume that the transitions are allowed only to the two adjacent levels of the same phase and are characterized by linear rates. The crucial element lies in the phase switching mechanism at the origin, which is governed by an irreducible stochastic matrix. The process evolution is interrupted by catastrophic events, whose occurrences are controlled by a Poisson process. Each catastrophe resets the system state to zero, initiating a new cycle of evolution until the next resetting event. We conduct a comprehensive analysis, addressing both the transient and long-term behavior of this process. Furthermore, we derive a diffusive approximation, by proving its convergence to a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck jump diffusion process.

math.PR

Path-dependent Kyle equilibrium model

We consider an auction type equilibrium model with an insider in line with the one originally introduced by Kyle in 1985 and then extended to the continuous time setting by Back in 1992. The novelty introduced with this paper is that we deal with a general price functional depending on the whole past of the aggregate demand, i.e. we work with path-dependency. By using the functional Itô calculus, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an equilibrium. Furthermore, we consider both the cases of a risk-neutral and a risk-averse insider.

q-fin.TR

From constant to rough: A survey of continuous volatility modeling

In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of continuous stochastic volatility models, discussing their historical development and the key stylized facts that have driven the field. Special attention is dedicated to fractional and rough methods: we outline the motivation behind them and characterize some landmark models. In addition, we briefly touch the problem of VIX modeling and recent advances in the SPX-VIX joint calibration puzzle.

q-fin.MF

Option pricing in Sandwiched Volterra Volatility model

We introduce a new model of financial market with stochastic volatility driven by an arbitrary Hölder continuous Gaussian Volterra process. The distinguishing feature of the model is the form of the volatility equation which ensures the solution to be ``sandwiched'' between two arbitrary Hölder continuous functions chosen in advance. We discuss the structure of local martingale measures on this market, investigate integrability and Malliavin differentiability of prices and volatilities as well as study absolute continuity of the corresponding probability laws. Additionally, we utilize Malliavin calculus to develop an algorithm of pricing options with discontinuous payoffs.

q-fin.MF

Sandwiched Volterra Volatility model: Markovian approximations and hedging

We consider stochastic volatility dynamics driven by a general Hölder continuous Volterra-type noise and with unbounded drift. For these so-called SVV-models, we consider the explicit computation of quadratic hedging strategies. While the theoretical hedge is well-known in terms of the non-anticipating derivative for all square integrable claims, the fact that these models are typically non-Markovian provides is a challenge in the direct computation of conditional expectations at the core of the explicit hedging strategy. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a Markovian approximation of the model which stems from an adequate approximation of the kernel in the Volterra noise. We study the approximation of the volatility, of the prices and of the optimal mean-square hedge. We provide the corresponding error estimates. The work is completed with numerical simulations.

q-fin.MF

Insights on Stochastic Dynamics for Transmission of Monkeypox: Biological and Probabilistic Behaviour

The transmission of monkeypox is studied using a stochastic model taking into account the biological aspects, the contact mechanisms and the demographic factors together with the intrinsic uncertainties. Our results provide insight into the interaction between stochasticity and biological elements in the dynamics of monkeypox transmission. The rigorous mathematical analysis determines threshold parameters for disease persistence. For the proposed model, the existence of a unique global almost sure non-negative solution is proven. Conditions leading to disease extinction are established. Asymptotic properties of the model are investigated such as the speed of transmission.

math.DS

Utility maximisation and time-change

We consider the problem of maximising expected utility from terminal wealth in a semimartingale setting, where the semimartingale is written as a sum of a time-changed Brownian motion and a finite variation process. To solve this problem, we consider an initial enlargement of filtration and we derive change of variable formulas for stochastic integrals w.r.t. a time-changed Brownian motion. The change of variable formulas allow us to shift the problem to a maximisation problem under the enlarged filtration for models driven by a Brownian motion and a finite variation process. The latter could be solved by using martingale methods. Then applying again the change of variable formula, we derive the optimal strategy for the original problem for a power utility under certain assumptions on the finite variation process of the semimartingale.

math.PR

Utility maximisation and change of variable formulas for time-changed dynamics

In this paper we derive novel change of variable formulas for stochastic integrals w.r.t. a time-changed Brownian motion where we assume that the time-change is a general increasing stochastic process with finitely many jumps in a bounded set of the positive half-line and is independent of the Brownian motion. As an application we consider the problem of maximising the expected utility of the terminal wealth in a semimartingale setting, where the semimartingale is written in terms of a time-changed Brownian motion and a finite variation process. To solve this problem, we use an initial enlargement of filtration and our change of variable formulas to shift the problem to a maximisation problem under the enlarged filtration for models driven by a Brownian motion and a finite variation process. The latter problem can be solved by using martingale properties. Then applying again a change of variable formula, we derive the optimal strategy for the original problem for a power utility and for a logarithmic utility.

math.PR

Cash non-additive risk measures: horizon risk and generalized entropy

Horizon risk (see arXiv:2301.04971) is studied in the context of cash non-additive fully-dynamic risk measures induced by BSDEs. Furthermore, we introduce a risk measure based on generalized Tsallis entropy which can dynamically evaluate the riskiness of losses considering both horizon risk and interest rate uncertainty. The new q-entropic risk measure on losses can be used as a quantification of capital requirement.

q-fin.RM

Fully-dynamic risk measures: horizon risk, time-consistency, and relations with BSDEs and BSVIEs

In a dynamic framework, we identify a new concept associated with the risk of assessing the financial exposure by a measure that is not adequate to the actual time horizon of the position. This will be called horizon risk. We clarify that dynamic risk measures are subject to horizon risk, so we propose to use the fully-dynamic version. To quantify horizon risk, we introduce h-longevity as an indicator. We investigate these notions together with other properties of risk measures as normalization, restriction property, and different formulations of time-consistency. We also consider these concepts for fully-dynamic risk measures generated by backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (BSVIEs), and families of these. Within this study, we provide new results for BSVIEs such as a converse comparison theorem and the dual representation of the associated risk measures.

math.PR

Power law in Sandwiched Volterra Volatility model

In this paper, we present analytical proof demonstrating that the Sandwiched Volterra Volatility (SVV) model is able to reproduce the power-law behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, provided the correct choice of the Volterra kernel. To obtain this result, we assess the second-order Malliavin differentiability of the volatility process and investigate the conditions that lead to explosive behavior in the Malliavin derivative. As a supplementary result, we also prove a general Malliavin product rule.

q-fin.MF

The heat modulated infinite dimensional Heston model and its numerical approximation

The HEat modulated Infinite DImensional Heston (HEIDIH) model and its numerical approximation are introduced and analyzed. This model falls into the general framework of infinite dimensional Heston stochastic volatility models of (F.E. Benth, I.C. Simonsen '18), introduced for the pricing of forward contracts. The HEIDIH model consists of a one-dimensional stochastic advection equation coupled with a stochastic volatility process, defined as a Cholesky-type decomposition of the tensor product of a Hilbert-space valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the mild solution to the stochastic heat equation on the real half-line. The advection and heat equations are driven by independent space-time Gaussian processes which are white in time and colored in space, with the latter covariance structure expressed by two different kernels. First, a class of weight-stationary kernels are given, under which regularity results for the HEIDIH model in fractional Sobolev spaces are formulated. In particular, the class includes weighted Matérn kernels. Second, numerical approximation of the model is considered. An error decomposition formula, pointwise in space and time, for a finite-difference scheme is proven. For a special case, essentially sharp convergence rates are obtained when this is combined with a fully discrete finite element approximation of the stochastic heat equation. The analysis takes into account a localization error, a pointwise-in-space finite element discretization error and an error stemming from the noise being sampled pointwise in space. The rates obtained in the analysis are higher than what would be obtained using a standard Sobolev embedding technique. Numerical simulations illustrate the results.

math.PR

Before and after default: information and optimal portfolio via anticipating calculus

Default risk calculus plays a crucial role in portfolio optimization when the risky asset is under threat of bankruptcy. However, traditional stochastic control techniques are not applicable in this scenario, and additional assumptions are required to obtain the optimal solution in a before-and-after default context. We propose an alternative approach using forward integration, which allows to avoid one of the restrictive assumptions, the Jacod density hypothesis. We demonstrate that, in the case of logarithmic utility, the weaker intensity hypothesis is the appropriate condition for optimality. Furthermore, we establish the semimartingale decomposition of the risky asset in the filtration that is progressively enlarged to accommodate the default process, under the assumption of the existence of the optimal portfolio. This work aims to provide valueable insights for developing effective risk management strategies when facing default risk.

q-fin.PM