arXiv subjects

Giulia Livieri

Publications and source records attributed to Giulia Livieri.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Volatility of volatility estimation: central limit theorems for the Fourier transform estimator and empirical study of the daily time series stylized facts

We study the asymptotic normality of two feasible estimators of the integrated volatility of volatility based on the Fourier methodology, which does not require the pre-estimation of the spot volatility. We show that the bias-corrected estimator reaches the optimal rate $n^{1/4}$, while the estimator without bias-correction has a slower convergence rate and a smaller asymptotic variance. Additionally, we provide simulation results that support the theoretical asymptotic distribution of the rate-efficient estimator and show the accuracy of the latter in comparison with a rate-optimal estimator based on the pre-estimation of the spot volatility. Finally, using the rate-optimal Fourier estimator, we reconstruct the time series of the daily volatility of volatility of the S\&P500 and EUROSTOXX50 indices over long samples and provide novel insight into the existence of stylized facts about the volatility of volatility dynamics.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

The Yoccoz-Birkeland livestock population model coupled with random price dynamics

We study a random version of the population-market model proposed by Arlot, Marmi and Papini in Arlot et al. (2019). The latter model is based on the Yoccoz-Birkeland integral equation and describes a time evolution of livestock commodities prices which exhibits endogenous deterministic stochastic behaviour. We introduce a stochastic component inspired from the Black-Scholes market model into the price equation and we prove the existence of a random attractor and of a random invariant measure. We compute numerically the fractal dimension and the entropy of the random attractor and we show its convergence to the deterministic one as the volatility in the market equation tends to zero. We also investigate in detail the dependence of the attractor on the choice of the time-discretization parameter. We implement several statistical distances to quantify the similarity between the attractors of the discretized systems and the original one. In particular, following a work by Cuturi (2013), we use the Sinkhorn distance. This is a discrete and penalized version of the Optimal Transport Distance between two measures, given a transport cost matrix.

math.DS↗

arXiv2022

Affine Volterra processes with jumps

The theory of affine processes has been recently extended to the framework of stochastic Volterra equations with continuous trajectories. These so-called affine Volterra processes overcome modeling shortcomings of affine processes because they can have trajectories whose regularity is different from the regularity of the paths of Brownian motion. More specifically, singular kernels yield rough affine processes. This paper extends the theory by considering affine stochastic Volterra equations with jumps. This extension is not straightforward because the jump structure together with possible singularities of the kernel may induce explosions of the trajectories.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Mean-Field Games of Finite-Fuel Capacity Expansion with Singular Controls

We study Nash equilibria for a sequence of symmetric $N$-player stochastic games of finite-fuel capacity expansion with singular controls and their mean-field game (MFG) counterpart. We construct a solution of the MFG via a simple iterative scheme that produces an optimal control in terms of a Skorokhod reflection at a (state-dependent) surface that splits the state space into action and inaction regions. We then show that a solution of the MFG of capacity expansion induces approximate Nash equilibria for the $N$-player games with approximation error $\varepsilon$ going to zero as $N$ tends to infinity. Our analysis relies entirely on probabilistic methods and extends the well-known connection between singular stochastic control and optimal stopping to a mean-field framework.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

$N$-player games and mean field games of moderate interactions

We study the asymptotic organization among many optimizing individuals interacting in a suitable "moderate" way. We justify this limiting game by proving that its solution provides approximate Nash equilibria for large but finite player games. This proof depends upon the derivation of a law of large numbers for the empirical processes in the limit as the number of players tends to infinity. Because it is of independent interest, we prove this result in full detail. We characterize the solutions of the limiting game via a verification argument.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

$N$-player games and mean-field games with smooth dependence on past absorptions

Mean-field games with absorption is a class of games, that have been introduced in Campi and Fischer (2018) and that can be viewed as natural limits of symmetric stochastic differential games with a large number of players who, interacting through a mean-field, leave the game as soon as their private states hit some given boundary. In this paper, we push the study of such games further, extending their scope along two main directions. First, we allow the state dynamics and the costs to have a very general, possibly infinite-dimensional, dependence on the (non-normalized) empirical sub-probability measure of the survivors' states. This includes the particularly relevant case where the mean-field interaction among the players is done through the empirical measure of the survivors together with the fraction of absorbed players over time. Second, the boundedness of coefficients and costs has been considerably relaxed including drift and costs with linear growth in the state variables, hence allowing for more realistic dynamics for players' private states. We prove the existence of solutions of the MFG in strict as well as relaxed feedback form, and we establish uniqueness of the MFG solutions under monotonicity conditions of Lasry-Lions type. Finally, we show in a setting with finite-dimensional interaction that such solutions induce approximate Nash equilibria for the $N$-player game with vanishing error as $N\rightarrow \infty$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Kelly Betting with Quantum Payoff: a continuous variable approach

The main purpose of this study is to introduce a semi-classical model describing betting scenarios in which, at variance with conventional approaches, the payoff of the gambler is encoded into the internal degrees of freedom of a quantum memory element. In our scheme, we assume that the invested capital is explicitly associated with the quantum analog of the free-energy (i.e. ergotropy functional by Allahverdyan, Balian, and Nieuwenhuizen) of a single mode of the electromagnetic radiation which, depending on the outcome of the betting, experiences attenuation or amplification processes which model losses and winning events. The resulting stochastic evolution of the quantum memory resembles the dynamics of random lasing which we characterize within the theoretical setting of Bosonic Gaussian channels. As in the classical Kelly Criterion for optimal betting, we define the asymptotic doubling rate of the model and identify the optimal gambling strategy for fixed odds and probabilities of winning. The performance of the model are hence studied as a function of the input capital state under the assumption that the latter belongs to the set of Gaussian density matrices (i.e. displaced, squeezed thermal Gibbs states) revealing that the best option for the gambler is to devote all her/his initial resources into coherent state amplitude.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2021

Analysis of bank leverage via dynamical systems and deep neural networks

We consider a model of a simple financial system consisting of a leveraged investor that invests in a risky asset and manages risk by using Value-at-Risk (VaR). The VaR is estimated by using past data via an adaptive expectation scheme. We show that the leverage dynamics can be described by a dynamical system of slow-fast type associated with a unimodal map on [0,1] with an additive heteroscedastic noise whose variance is related to the portfolio rebalancing frequency to target leverage. In absence of noise the model is purely deterministic and the parameter space splits in two regions: (i) a region with a globally attracting fixed point or a 2-cycle; (ii) a dynamical core region, where the map could exhibit chaotic behavior. Whenever the model is randomly perturbed, we prove the existence of a unique stationary density with bounded variation, the stochastic stability of the process and the almost certain existence and continuity of the Lyapunov exponent for the stationary measure. We then use deep neural networks to estimate map parameters from a short time series. Using this method, we estimate the model in a large dataset of US commercial banks over the period 2001-2014. We find that the parameters of a substantial fraction of banks lie in the dynamical core, and their leverage time series are consistent with a chaotic behavior. We also present evidence that the time series of the leverage of large banks tend to exhibit chaoticity more frequently than those of small banks.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2017

Rough volatility: evidence from option prices

It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This result has been established using high frequency volatility estimations from historical price data. We revisit this finding by studying implied volatility based approximations of the spot volatility. Using at-the-money options on the S&P500 index with short maturity, we are able to confirm that volatility is rough. The Hurst parameter found here, of order 0.3, is slightly larger than that usually obtained from historical data. This is easily explained from a smoothing effect due to the remaining time to maturity of the considered options.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2015

A backward Monte Carlo approach to exotic option pricing

We propose a novel algorithm which allows to sample paths from an underlying price process in a local volatility model and to achieve a substantial variance reduction when pricing exotic options. The new algorithm relies on the construction of a discrete multinomial tree. The crucial feature of our approach is that -- in a similar spirit to the Brownian Bridge -- each random path runs backward from a terminal fixed point to the initial spot price. We characterize the tree in two alternative ways: in terms of the optimal grids originating from the Recursive Marginal Quantization algorithm and following an approach inspired by the finite difference approximation of the diffusion's infinitesimal generator. We assess the reliability of the new methodology comparing the performance of both approaches and benchmarking them with competitor Monte Carlo methods.

q-fin.CP↗