arXiv subjects

Giulio Burgio

Publications and source records attributed to Giulio Burgio.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Self-reinforcing cascades: A spreading model for beliefs or products of varying intensity or quality

Models of how things spread often assume that transmission mechanisms are fixed over time. However, social contagions--the spread of ideas, beliefs, innovations--can lose or gain in momentum as they spread: ideas can get reinforced, beliefs strengthened, products refined. We study the impacts of such self-reinforcement mechanisms in cascade dynamics. We use different mathematical modeling techniques to capture the recursive, yet changing nature of the process. We find a critical regime with a range of power-law cascade size distributions with non-universal scaling exponents. This regime clashes with classic models, where criticality requires fine tuning at a precise critical point. Self-reinforced cascades produce critical-like behavior over a wide range of parameters, which may help explain the ubiquity of power-law distributions in empirical social data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Defining and classifying models of groups: The social ontology of higher-order networks

In complex systems research, the study of higher-order interactions has exploded in recent years. Researchers have formalized various types of group interactions, such as public goods games, biological contagion, and information broadcasting, showing how higher-order networks can capture group effects more directly than pairwise models. However, equating hyperedges-edges involving more than two agents-with groups can be misleading, as it obscures the polysemous nature of ``group interactions''. For instance, many models of higher-order interactions focus on the internal state of the hyperedge, specifying dynamical rules at the group level. These models often neglect how interactions with external groups can influence behaviors and dynamics within the group. Yet, anthropologists and philosophers remind us that external norms, factors, and forces governing intergroup behavior are essential to defining within-group dynamics. In this paper, we synthesize concepts from social ontology relevant to the emerging physics of higher-order networks. We propose a typology for classifying models of group interactions based on two perspectives. The first focuses on individuals within groups engaging in collective action, where shared agency serves as the binding force. The second adopts a group-first approach, emphasizing institutional facts that extend beyond the specific individuals involved. Building on these perspectives, we introduce four dimensions to classify models of group interactions: persistence, coupling, reducibility, and alignment. For the physics of higher-order networks, we provide a hierarchy of nested mathematical models to explore the complex properties of social groups. We highlight social interactions not yet explored in the literature on higher-order networks and propose future research avenues to foster collaboration between social ontology and the physics of complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Characteristic scales and adaptation in higher-order contagions

People organize in groups and contagions spread across them. A simple stochastic process, yet complex to model due to dynamical correlations within and between groups. Moreover, groups can evolve if agents join or leave in response to contagions. To address the lack of analytical models that account for dynamical correlations and adaptation in groups, we introduce the method of generalized approximate master equations. We first analyze how nonlinear contagions differ when driven by group-level or individual-level dynamics. We then study the characteristic levels of group activity that best describe the stochastic process and that optimize agents' ability to adapt to it. Naturally lending itself to study adaptive hypergraphs, our method reveals how group structure unlocks new dynamical regimes and enables distinct suitable adaptation strategies. Our approach offers a highly accurate model of binary-state dynamics on hypergraphs, advances our understanding of contagion processes, and opens the study of adaptive group-structured systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

A triadic approximation reveals the role of interaction overlap on the spread of complex contagions on higher-order networks

Contagion processes relying on the exposure to multiple sources are prevalent in social systems, and are effectively represented by hypergraphs. In this Letter, we derive a mean-field model that goes beyond node- and pair-based approximations. We reveal how the stability of the contagion-free state is decided by either two- or three-body interactions, and how this is strictly related to the degree of overlap between these interactions. Our findings demonstrate the dual effect of increased overlap: it lowers the invasion threshold, yet produces smaller outbreaks. Corroborated by numerical simulations, our results emphasize the significance of the chosen representation in describing a higher-order process.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Paradoxes in the co-evolution of contagions and institutions

Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on global top-down interventions, nor solely on individual adaptations. Instead, interventions most commonly come from local institutions such as public health departments, moderation teams on social media platforms, or other forms of group governance. Classic models, which are often individual or agent-based, are ill-suited to capture local adaptations. We leverage recent development of institutional dynamics based on cultural group selection to study how groups can attempt local control of an epidemic by taking inspiration from the successes and failures of other groups. Incorporating these institutional changes into the epidemic dynamics reveals paradoxes: a higher transmission rate can result in smaller outbreaks and decreasing the speed of institutional adaptation generally reduces outbreak size. When groups perceive a contagion as more worrisome, they can invest in improved policies and, if they maintain these policies long enough to have impact, lead to a reduction in endemicity. By looking at the interplay between the speed of institutions and the transmission rate of the contagions, we find rich co-evolutionary dynamics that reflect the complexity of known biological and social contagions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Adaptive hypergraphs and the characteristic scale of higher-order contagions using generalized approximate master equations

People organize in groups and contagions spread across them. A simple process, but complex to model due to dynamical correlations within groups and between groups. Groups can also change as agents join and leave them to avoid infection. To study the characteristic levels of group activity required to best model dynamics and for agents to adapt, we develop master equations for adaptive hypergraphs, finding bistability and regimes of detrimental, beneficial, and optimal rewiring, at odds with adaptation on networks. Our study paves the way for higher-order adaptation and self-organized hypergraphs.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Spreading dynamics in networks under context-dependent behavior

In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading. In our model, agents actively impede (favor) or not diffusion during an interaction, depending on the behavior they observe among all the peers in the group within which that interaction occurs. We divide the population into two behavioral types and provide a mean-field theory to parametrize mixing patterns of arbitrary type-assortativity within groups of any size. As an application, we examine an epidemic spreading model with context-dependent adoption of prophylactic tools such as face-masks. By analyzing the distributions of groups' size and type-composition, we uncover a rich phenomenology for the basic reproduction number and the endemic state. We analytically show how changing the group organization of contacts can either facilitate or hinder epidemic spreading, eventually moving the system from the subcritical to the supercritical phase and vice versa, depending mainly on sociological factors, such as whether the prophylactic behavior is hardly or easily induced. More generally, our work provides a theoretical foundation to model higher-order contexts and analyze their dynamical implications, envisioning a broad theory of context-dependent interactions that would allow for a new systematic investigation of a variety of complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

A dynamic model of Tax Evasion

In this paper we present a simplified model of a proportional taxation system where citizens decide whether to pay taxes or evade them. We initially derive a dynamic equation for the fraction of evaders and then present both its critical points and equilibrium stable states for a well-mixed population and for a fixed audit probability. Our theoretical predictions consider different possible income distributions (homogeneous and heterogeneous), time-dependent audit probability and different possible social topologies, by means of selected complex network configurations. All derived results are validated and confirmed by extended Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, some policy implications aimed to reduce tax evasion are suggested, with regards to the tax and fine rates and the audit probability.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Homophily impacts the success of vaccine roll-outs

Physical contacts do not occur randomly, rather, individuals with similar socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics are more likely to interact among them, a phenomenon known as homophily. Concurrently, the same characteristics correlate with the adoption of prophylactic tools. As a result, the latter do not unfold homogeneously in a population, affecting their ability to control the spread of infectious diseases. Here, focusing on the case of vaccines, we reveal three different dynamical regimes as a function of the mixing rate between vaccinated and non vaccinated individuals. Specifically, depending on the epidemic pressure, vaccine coverage and efficacy, we find the attack rate to decrease, increase or vary non monotonously with respect to the mixing rate. We corroborate the phenomenology through Monte Carlo simulations on a temporal physical contact network. Besides vaccines, our findings hold for a wide range of prophylactic tools, indicating a universal mechanism in spreading dynamics

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Network clique cover approximation to analyze complex contagions through group interactions

Contagion processes have been proven to fundamentally depend on the structural properties of the interaction networks conveying them. Many real networked systems are characterized by clustered substructures representing either collections of all-to-all pair-wise interactions (cliques) and/or group interactions, involving many of their members at once. In this work, focusing on interaction structures represented as simplicial complexes, we present a discrete-time microscopic model of complex contagion for a susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics. Introducing a particular edge clique cover and a heuristic to find it, the model accounts for the higher-order dynamical correlations among the members of the substructures (cliques/simplices). The analytical computation of the critical point reveals that higher-order correlations are responsible for its dependence on the higher-order couplings. While such dependence eludes any mean-field model, the possibility of a bi-stable region is extended to structured populations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

The impact of homophily on digital proximity tracing

We study how homophily of human physical interactions affects the efficacy of digital proximity tracing. Analytical results show a non monotonous dependence of the reproduction number with respect to the mixing rate between individuals that adopt the contact tracing app and the ones that do not. Furthermore, we find regimes in which the attack rate has local optima, minima or monotonously varies with the mixing rate. We corroborate our findings with Monte Carlo simulations on a primary-school network. This study provides a mathematical basis to better understand how homophily in health behavior shapes the dynamics of epidemics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Evolution of Cooperation in the Presence of Higher-Order Interactions: from Networks to Hypergraphs

Many real systems are strongly characterized by collective cooperative phenomena whose existence and properties still need a satisfactory explanation. Coherently with their collective nature, they call for new and more accurate descriptions going beyond pairwise models, such as graphs, in which all the interactions are considered as involving only two individuals at a time. Hypergraphs respond to this need, providing a mathematical representation of a system allowing from pairs to larger groups. In this work, through the use of different hypergraphs, we study how group interactions influence the evolution of cooperation in a structured population, by analyzing the evolutionary dynamics of the public goods game. Here we show that, likewise network reciprocity, group interactions also promote cooperation. More importantly, by means of an invasion analysis in which the conditions for a strategy to survive are studied, we show how, in heterogeneously-structured populations, reciprocity among players is expected to grow with the increasing of the order of the interactions. This is due to the heterogeneity of connections and, particularly, to the presence of individuals standing out as hubs in the population. Our analysis represents a first step towards the study of evolutionary dynamics through higher-order interactions, and gives insights into why cooperation in heterogeneous higher-order structures is enhanced. Lastly, it also gives clues about the co-existence of cooperative and non-cooperative behaviors related to the structural properties of the interaction patterns.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Exploring the Role of Interdisciplinarity in Physics: Success, Talent and Luck

Although interdisciplinarity is often touted as a necessity for modern research, the evidence on the relative impact of sectorial versus to interdisciplinary science is qualitative at best. In this paper we leverage the bibliographic data set of the American Physical Society to quantify the role of interdisciplinarity in physics, and that of talent and luck in achieving success in scientific careers. We analyze a period of 30 years (1980-2009) tagging papers and their authors by means of the Physics and Astronomy Classification Scheme (PACS), to show that some degree of interdisciplinarity is quite helpful to reach success, measured as a proxy of either the number of articles or the citations score. We also propose an agent-based model of the publication-reputation-citation dynamics reproduces the trends observed in the APS data set. On the one hand, the results highlight the crucial role of randomness and serendipity in real scientific research; on the other, they shed light on a counter-intuitive effect indicating that the most talented authors are not necessarily the most successful ones.

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