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Giulio Caravagna

Publications and source records attributed to Giulio Caravagna.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2025

Mixtures of Neural Cellular Automata: A Stochastic Framework for Growth Modelling and Self-Organization

Neural Cellular Automata (NCAs) are a promising new approach to model self-organizing processes, with potential applications in life science. However, their deterministic nature limits their ability to capture the stochasticity of real-world biological and physical systems. We propose the Mixture of Neural Cellular Automata (MNCA), a novel framework incorporating the idea of mixture models into the NCA paradigm. By combining probabilistic rule assignments with intrinsic noise, MNCAs can model diverse local behaviors and reproduce the stochastic dynamics observed in biological processes. We evaluate the effectiveness of MNCAs in three key domains: (1) synthetic simulations of tissue growth and differentiation, (2) image morphogenesis robustness, and (3) microscopy image segmentation. Results show that MNCAs achieve superior robustness to perturbations, better recapitulate real biological growth patterns, and provide interpretable rule segmentation. These findings position MNCAs as a promising tool for modeling stochastic dynamical systems and studying self-growth processes.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2021

PMCE: efficient inference of expressive models of cancer evolution with high prognostic power

Motivation: Driver (epi)genomic alterations underlie the positive selection of cancer subpopulations, which promotes drug resistance and relapse. Even though substantial heterogeneity is witnessed in most cancer types, mutation accumulation patterns can be regularly found and can be exploited to reconstruct predictive models of cancer evolution. Yet, available methods cannot infer logical formulas connecting events to represent alternative evolutionary routes or convergent evolution. Results: We introduce PMCE, an expressive framework that leverages mutational profiles from cross-sectional sequencing data to infer probabilistic graphical models of cancer evolution including arbitrary logical formulas, and which outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy and robustness to noise, on simulations. The application of PMCE to 7866 samples from the TCGA database allows us to identify a highly significant correlation between the predicted evolutionary paths and the overall survival in 7 tumor types, proving that our approach can effectively stratify cancer patients in reliable risk groups. Availability: PMCE is freely available at https://github.com/BIMIB-DISCo/PMCE, in addition to the code to replicate all the analyses presented in the manuscript. Contacts: daniele.ramazzotti@unimib.it, alex.graudenzi@ibfm.cnr.it.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2021

Learning the structure of Bayesian Networks via the bootstrap

Learning the structure of dependencies among multiple random variables is a problem of considerable theoretical and practical interest. Within the context of Bayesian Networks, a practical and surprisingly successful solution to this learning problem is achieved by adopting score-functions optimisation schema, augmented with multiple restarts to avoid local optima. Yet, the conditions under which such strategies work well are poorly understood, and there are also some intrinsic limitations to learning the directionality of the interaction among the variables. Following an early intuition of Friedman and Koller, we propose to decouple the learning problem into two steps: first, we identify a partial ordering among input variables which constrains the structural learning problem, and then propose an effective bootstrap-based algorithm to simulate augmented data sets, and select the most important dependencies among the variables. By using several synthetic data sets, we show that our algorithm yields better recovery performance than the state of the art, increasing the chances of identifying a globally-optimal solution to the learning problem, and solving also well-known identifiability issues that affect the standard approach. We use our new algorithm to infer statistical dependencies between cancer driver somatic mutations detected by high-throughput genome sequencing data of multiple colorectal cancer patients. In this way, we also show how the proposed methods can shade new insights about cancer initiation, and progression. Code: https://github.com/caravagn/Bootstrap-based-Learning

cs.LG↗
arXiv2019

cyTRON and cyTRON/JS: two Cytoscape-based applications for the inference of cancer evolution models

The increasing availability of sequencing data of cancer samples is fueling the development of algorithmic strategies to investigate tumor heterogeneity and infer reliable models of cancer evolution. We here build up on previous works on cancer progression inference from genomic alteration data, to deliver two distinct Cytoscape-based applications, which allow to produce, visualize and manipulate cancer evolution models, also by interacting with public genomic and proteomics databases. In particular, we here introduce cyTRON, a stand-alone Cytoscape app, and cyTRON/JS, a web application which employs the functionalities of Cytoscape/JS. cyTRON was developed in Java; the code is available at https://github.com/BIMIB-DISCo/cyTRON and on the Cytoscape App Store http://apps.cytoscape.org/apps/cytron. cyTRON/JS was developed in JavaScript and R; the source code of the tool is available at https://github.com/BIMIB-DISCo/cyTRON-js and the tool is accessible from https://bimib.disco.unimib.it/cytronjs/welcome.

q-bio.GN↗
arXiv2019

Learning mutational graphs of individual tumour evolution from single-cell and multi-region sequencing data

Background. A large number of algorithms is being developed to reconstruct evolutionary models of individual tumours from genome sequencing data. Most methods can analyze multiple samples collected either through bulk multi-region sequencing experiments or the sequencing of individual cancer cells. However, rarely the same method can support both data types. Results. We introduce TRaIT, a computational framework to infer mutational graphs that model the accumulation of multiple types of somatic alterations driving tumour evolution. Compared to other tools, TRaIT supports multi-region and single-cell sequencing data within the same statistical framework, and delivers expressive models that capture many complex evolutionary phenomena. TRaIT improves accuracy, robustness to data-specific errors and computational complexity compared to competing methods. Conclusions. We show that the application of TRaIT to single-cell and multi-region cancer datasets can produce accurate and reliable models of single-tumour evolution, quantify the extent of intra-tumour heterogeneity and generate new testable experimental hypotheses.

q-bio.GN↗
arXiv2018

Modeling cumulative biological phenomena with Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks

Several diseases related to cell proliferation are characterized by the accumulation of somatic DNA changes, with respect to wildtype conditions. Cancer and HIV are two common examples of such diseases, where the mutational load in the cancerous/viral population increases over time. In these cases, selective pressures are often observed along with competition, cooperation and parasitism among distinct cellular clones. Recently, we presented a mathematical framework to model these phenomena, based on a combination of Bayesian inference and Suppes' theory of probabilistic causation, depicted in graphical structures dubbed Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs). SBCNs are generative probabilistic graphical models that recapitulate the potential ordering of accumulation of such DNA changes during the progression of the disease. Such models can be inferred from data by exploiting likelihood-based model-selection strategies with regularization. In this paper we discuss the theoretical foundations of our approach and we investigate in depth the influence on the model-selection task of: (i) the poset based on Suppes' theory and (ii) different regularization strategies. Furthermore, we provide an example of application of our framework to HIV genetic data highlighting the valuable insights provided by the inferred.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2017

Algorithmic Methods to Infer the Evolutionary Trajectories in Cancer Progression

The genomic evolution inherent to cancer relates directly to a renewed focus on the voluminous next generation sequencing (NGS) data, and machine learning for the inference of explanatory models of how the (epi)genomic events are choreographed in cancer initiation and development. However, despite the increasing availability of multiple additional -omics data, this quest has been frustrated by various theoretical and technical hurdles, mostly stemming from the dramatic heterogeneity of the disease. In this paper, we build on our recent works on "selective advantage" relation among driver mutations in cancer progression and investigate its applicability to the modeling problem at the population level. Here, we introduce PiCnIc (Pipeline for Cancer Inference), a versatile, modular and customizable pipeline to extract ensemble-level progression models from cross-sectional sequenced cancer genomes. The pipeline has many translational implications as it combines state-of-the-art techniques for sample stratification, driver selection, identification of fitness-equivalent exclusive alterations and progression model inference. We demonstrate PiCnIc's ability to reproduce much of the current knowledge on colorectal cancer progression, as well as to suggest novel experimentally verifiable hypotheses.

q-bio.GN↗
arXiv2016

Matching models across abstraction levels with Gaussian Processes

Biological systems are often modelled at different levels of abstraction depending on the particular aims/resources of a study. Such different models often provide qualitatively concordant predictions over specific parametrisations, but it is generally unclear whether model predictions are quantitatively in agreement, and whether such agreement holds for different parametrisations. Here we present a generally applicable statistical machine learning methodology to automatically reconcile the predictions of different models across abstraction levels. Our approach is based on defining a correction map, a random function which modifies the output of a model in order to match the statistics of the output of a different model of the same system. We use two biological examples to give a proof-of-principle demonstration of the methodology, and discuss its advantages and potential further applications.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2016

TRONCO: an R package for the inference of cancer progression models from heterogeneous genomic data

Motivation: We introduce TRONCO (TRanslational ONCOlogy), an open-source R package that implements the state-of-the-art algorithms for the inference of cancer progression models from (epi)genomic mutational profiles. TRONCO can be used to extract population-level models describing the trends of accumulation of alterations in a cohort of cross-sectional samples, e.g., retrieved from publicly available databases, and individual-level models that reveal the clonal evolutionary history in single cancer patients, when multiple samples, e.g., multiple biopsies or single-cell sequencing data, are available. The resulting models can provide key hints in uncovering the evolutionary trajectories of cancer, especially for precision medicine or personalized therapy. Availability: TRONCO is released under the GPL license, it is hosted in the Software section at http://bimib.disco.unimib.it/ and archived also at bioconductor.org. Contact: tronco@disco.unimib.it

q-bio.QM↗
arXiv2015

CABeRNET: a Cytoscape app for Augmented Boolean models of gene Regulatory NETworks

Background. Dynamical models of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are highly effective in describing complex biological phenomena and processes, such as cell differentiation and cancer development. Yet, the topological and functional characterization of real GRNs is often still partial and an exhaustive picture of their functioning is missing. Motivation. We here introduce CABeRNET, a Cytoscape app for the generation, simulation and analysis of Boolean models of GRNs, specifically focused on their augmentation when a only partial topological and functional characterization of the network is available. By generating large ensembles of networks in which user-defined entities and relations are added to the original core, CABeRNET allows to formulate hypotheses on the missing portions of real networks, as well to investigate their generic properties, in the spirit of complexity science. Results. CABeRNET offers a series of innovative simulation and modeling functions and tools, including (but not being limited to) the dynamical characterization of the gene activation patterns ruling cell types and differentiation fates, and sophisticated robustness assessments, as in the case of gene knockouts. The integration within the widely used Cytoscape framework for the visualization and analysis of biological networks, makes CABeRNET a new essential instrument for both the bioinformatician and the computational biologist, as well as a computational support for the experimentalist. An example application concerning the analysis of an augmented T-helper cell GRN is provided.

q-bio.MN↗
arXiv2015

CAPRI: Efficient Inference of Cancer Progression Models from Cross-sectional Data

We devise a novel inference algorithm to effectively solve the cancer progression model reconstruction problem. Our empirical analysis of the accuracy and convergence rate of our algorithm, CAncer PRogression Inference (CAPRI), shows that it outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms addressing similar problems. Motivation: Several cancer-related genomic data have become available (e.g., The Cancer Genome Atlas, TCGA) typically involving hundreds of patients. At present, most of these data are aggregated in a cross-sectional fashion providing all measurements at the time of diagnosis.Our goal is to infer cancer progression models from such data. These models are represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) of collections of selectivity relations, where a mutation in a gene A selects for a later mutation in a gene B. Gaining insight into the structure of such progressions has the potential to improve both the stratification of patients and personalized therapy choices. Results: The CAPRI algorithm relies on a scoring method based on a probabilistic theory developed by Suppes, coupled with bootstrap and maximum likelihood inference. The resulting algorithm is efficient, achieves high accuracy, and has good complexity, also, in terms of convergence properties. CAPRI performs especially well in the presence of noise in the data, and with limited sample sizes. Moreover CAPRI, in contrast to other approaches, robustly reconstructs different types of confluent trajectories despite irregularities in the data.We also report on an ongoing investigation using CAPRI to study atypical Chronic Myeloid Leukemia, in which we uncovered non trivial selectivity relations and exclusivity patterns among key genomic events.

math.ST↗
arXiv2014

Gene switching rate determines response to extrinsic perturbations in a transcriptional network motif

It is well-known that gene activation/deactivation dynamics may be a major source of randomness in genetic networks, also in the case of large concentrations of the transcription factors. In this work, we investigate the effect of realistic extrinsic noises acting on gene deactivation in a common network motif - the positive feedback of a transcription factor on its own synthesis - under a variety of settings, i.e., distinct cellular types, distribution of proteins and properties of the external perturbations. At variance with standard models where the perturbations are Gaussian unbounded, we focus here on bounded extrinsic noises to better mimic biological reality. Our results suggest that the gene switching velocity is a key parameter to modulate the response of the network. Simulations suggest that, if the gene switching is fast and many proteins are present, an irreversible noise-induced first order transition is observed as a function of the noise intensity. If noise intensity is further increased a second order transition is also observed. When gene switching is fast, a similar scenario is observed even when few proteins are present, provided that larger cells are considered, which is mainly influenced by noise autocorrelation. On the contrary, if the gene switching is slow, no fist order transitions are observed. In the concluding remarks possible implications of the irreversible transitions for cellular differentiation are briefly discussed.

q-bio.MN↗
arXiv2014

Inferring tree causal models of cancer progression with probability raising

Existing techniques to reconstruct tree models of progression for accumulative processes, such as cancer, seek to estimate causation by combining correlation and a frequentist notion of temporal priority. In this paper, we define a novel theoretical framework called CAPRESE (CAncer PRogression Extraction with Single Edges) to reconstruct such models based on the notion of probabilistic causation defined by Suppes. We consider a general reconstruction setting complicated by the presence of noise in the data due to biological variation, as well as experimental or measurement errors. To improve tolerance to noise we define and use a shrinkage-like estimator. We prove the correctness of our algorithm by showing asymptotic convergence to the correct tree under mild constraints on the level of noise. Moreover, on synthetic data, we show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, that it is efficient even with a relatively small number of samples and that its performance quickly converges to its asymptote as the number of samples increases. For real cancer datasets obtained with different technologies, we highlight biologically significant differences in the progressions inferred with respect to other competing techniques and we also show how to validate conjectured biological relations with progression models.

math.ST↗
arXiv2013

Analysis of the spatial and dynamical properties of a multiscale model of intestinal crypts

The preliminary analyses on a multiscale model of intestinal crypt dynamics are here presented. The model combines a morphological model, based on the Cellular Potts Model (CPM), and a gene regulatory network model, based on Noisy Random Boolean Networks (NRBNs). Simulations suggest that the stochastic differentiation process is itself sufficient to ensure the general homeostasis in the asymptotic states, as proven by several measures.

cs.CE↗
arXiv2013

GPU-powered Simulation Methodologies for Biological Systems

The study of biological systems witnessed a pervasive cross-fertilization between experimental investigation and computational methods. This gave rise to the development of new methodologies, able to tackle the complexity of biological systems in a quantitative manner. Computer algorithms allow to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the corresponding biological system, and, at the price of a large number of simulations, it is possible to extensively investigate the system functioning across a wide spectrum of natural conditions. To enable multiple analysis in parallel, using cheap, diffused and highly efficient multi-core devices we developed GPU-powered simulation algorithms for stochastic, deterministic and hybrid modeling approaches, so that also users with no knowledge of GPUs hardware and programming can easily access the computing power of graphics engines.

cs.CE↗
arXiv2012

Effects of delayed immune-response in tumor immune-system interplay

Tumors constitute a wide family of diseases kinetically characterized by the co-presence of multiple spatio-temporal scales. So, tumor cells ecologically interplay with other kind of cells, e.g. endothelial cells or immune system effectors, producing and exchanging various chemical signals. As such, tumor growth is an ideal object of hybrid modeling where discrete stochastic processes model agents at low concentrations, and mean-field equations model chemical signals. In previous works we proposed a hybrid version of the well-known Panetta-Kirschner mean-field model of tumor cells, effector cells and Interleukin-2. Our hybrid model suggested -at variance of the inferences from its original formulation- that immune surveillance, i.e. tumor elimination by the immune system, may occur through a sort of side-effect of large stochastic oscillations. However, that model did not account that, due to both chemical transportation and cellular differentiation/division, the tumor-induced recruitment of immune effectors is not instantaneous but, instead, it exhibits a lag period. To capture this, we here integrate a mean-field equation for Interleukins-2 with a bi-dimensional delayed stochastic process describing such delayed interplay. An algorithm to realize trajectories of the underlying stochastic process is obtained by coupling the Piecewise Deterministic Markov process (for the hybrid part) with a Generalized Semi-Markovian clock structure (to account for delays). We (i) relate tumor mass growth with delays via simulations and via parametric sensitivity analysis techniques, (ii) we quantitatively determine probabilistic eradication times, and (iii) we prove, in the oscillatory regime, the existence of a heuristic stochastic bifurcation resulting in delay-induced tumor eradication, which is neither predicted by the mean-field nor by the hybrid non-delayed models.

cs.CE↗
arXiv2012

The interplay of intrinsic and extrinsic bounded noises in genetic networks

After being considered as a nuisance to be filtered out, it became recently clear that biochemical noise plays a complex role, often fully functional, for a genetic network. The influence of intrinsic and extrinsic noises on genetic networks has intensively been investigated in last ten years, though contributions on the co-presence of both are sparse. Extrinsic noise is usually modeled as an unbounded white or colored gaussian stochastic process, even though realistic stochastic perturbations are clearly bounded. In this paper we consider Gillespie-like stochastic models of nonlinear networks, i.e. the intrinsic noise, where the model jump rates are affected by colored bounded extrinsic noises synthesized by a suitable biochemical state-dependent Langevin system. These systems are described by a master equation, and a simulation algorithm to analyze them is derived. This new modeling paradigm should enlarge the class of systems amenable at modeling. We investigated the influence of both amplitude and autocorrelation time of a extrinsic Sine-Wiener noise on: $(i)$ the Michaelis-Menten approximation of noisy enzymatic reactions, which we show to be applicable also in co-presence of both intrinsic and extrinsic noise, $(ii)$ a model of enzymatic futile cycle and $(iii)$ a genetic toggle switch. In $(ii)$ and $(iii)$ we show that the presence of a bounded extrinsic noise induces qualitative modifications in the probability densities of the involved chemicals, where new modes emerge, thus suggesting the possibile functional role of bounded noises.

q-bio.MN↗