arXiv subjects

Golam Mohiuddin Shaifullah

Publications and source records attributed to Golam Mohiuddin Shaifullah.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Data span and frequency coverage requirements for robust detection and inference in PTAs: A case study with EPTA DR2

Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) are approaching the sensitivity required for a $5σ$ detection of the nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB). This makes it crucial to deeply understand the behaviour of our analysis pipelines. A counterintuitive feature of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) second data release is that restricting the dataset to the last 10.3 years (DR2new) increases the inferred GWB significance from $\leq2σ$ for the full 25-year dataset (DR2full) to $\geq3.5σ$. We investigate whether this behaviour indicates an anomaly or is a possible outcome of the pipeline. Using realistic, DR2-like simulations with varying timespans, we find that the first 10 years contribute little to the GWB evidence due to their limited frequency coverage. This produces substantial overlap between the HD S/N distributions of DR2full and DR2new. Random noise fluctuations therefore yield a higher GWB evidence in DR2new than in DR2full in $15\%$ of cases. Furthermore, $5\%$ of simulations match the HD S/N of the real data, indicating that the observed behaviour is consistent with being a $\sim2σ$ outcome due to noise fluctuations. Regardless of significance, DR2new simulations introduce biases in the GWB parameter estimation due to spectral leakage effects that are ignored in standard analyses and which flatten the inferred spectrum. Including leakage removes these biases, demonstrating the reliability of DR2new when the signal is properly modelled. Furthermore, we demonstrate that combining EPTA DR2full with long-baseline data from NANOGrav and PPTA, as well as low-frequency data from LOFAR and NenuFAR, significantly enhances GWB evidence and parameter accuracy. Finally, we examine the impact of the observation timespan and find that short-baseline datasets introduce strong amplitude biases and are ineffective at constraining the GWB.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Improving Bayesian inference in PTA data analysis: importance nested sampling with Normalizing Flows

We present a detailed study of Bayesian inference workflows for pulsar timing array data with a focus on enhancing efficiency, robustness and speed through the use of normalizing flow-based nested sampling. Building on the Enterprise framework, we integrate the i-nessai sampler and benchmark its performance on realistic, simulated datasets. We analyze its computational scaling and stability, and show that it achieves accurate posteriors and reliable evidence estimates with substantially reduced runtime, by up to three orders of magnitude depending on the dataset configuration, with respect to conventional single-core parallel-tempering MCMC analyses. These results highlight the potential of flow-based nested sampling to accelerate PTA analyses while preserving the quality of the inference.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Lighting up the nano-hertz gravitational wave sky: opportunities and challenges of multimessenger astronomy with PTA experiments

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments have the potential to unveil continuous gravitational wave (CGW) signals from individual massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). Detecting them in both gravitational waves (GW) and the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum will open a new chapter in multimessenger astronomy. We investigate the feasibility of conducting multimessenger studies by combining the CGW detections from an idealized 30-year SKA PTA and the optical data from the forthcoming LSST survey. To this end, we employed the $\texttt{L-Galaxies}$ semi-analytical model applied to the $\texttt{Millennium}$ simulation. We generated 200 different all-sky lightcones that include galaxies, massive black holes, and MBHBs whose emission is modeled based on their star formation histories and gas accretion physics. We predict an average of $\approx 33$ CGW detections, with signal-to-noise ratios $ S/N > 5$. The detected MBHBs are typically at $z < 0.5$, with masses of $ \sim 3 \times 10^{9} M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $> 0.6$ and eccentricities $\lesssim 0.2$. In terms of EM counterparts, we find less than 15% of these systems to be connected with an AGN detectable by LSST, while their host galaxies are easily detectable ($ < 23$ mag) massive ($ M_{\star} > 10^{11} M_{\odot}$) ellipticals with typical star formation rates ($10^{-15} yr^{-1} < sSRF < 10^{-10} yr^{-1}$). Although the CGW-EM counterpart association is complicated by poor sky localization (only 35% of these CGWs are localized within $\rm 100\, deg^2$), the number of galaxy host candidates can be considerably reduced (thousands to tens) by applying priors based on the galaxy-MBH correlations. However, picking the actual host among these candidates is highly non-trivial, as they occupy a similar region in any optical color-color diagram. Our findings highlight the considerable challenges entailed in opening the low-frequency multimessenger GW sky.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Resolving the nano-Hz gravitational wave sky: the detectability of eccentric binaries with PTA experiments

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) collaborations reported evidence of a nano-Hz stochastic gravitational wave background (sGWB) compatible with an adiabatically inspiraling population of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). Despite the large uncertainties, the relatively flat spectral slope of the recovered signal suggests a possible prominent role of MBHB dynamical coupling with the environment or/and the presence of an eccentric MBHB population. This work aims at studying the capabilities of future PTA experiments to detect single MBHBs under the realistic assumption that the sGWB is originated from an eccentric binary population coupled with its environment. To this end, we generalize the standard signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and Fisher Information Matrix calculations used in PTA for circular MBHBs to the case of eccentric systems. We consider an ideal 10-year MeerKAT and 30-year SKA PTAs and apply our method over a wide number of simulated eccentric MBHB populations. We find that the number of resolvable MBHBs for the SKA (MeerKAT) PTA is ${\sim}\,30$ ($4$) at $\rm SNR\,{>}\,5$ (${>}\,3$), featuring an increasing trend for larger eccentricity values of the MBHB population. This is the result of eccentric MBHBs at ${\lesssim}\,10^{-9}\, \rm Hz$ emitting part of their power at high harmonics, thus reaching the PTA sensitivity band. Our results also indicate that resolved MBHBs do not follow the eccentricity distribution of the underlying MBHB population, but prefer low eccentricity values (${<}\,0.6$). Finally, the recovery of binary intrinsic properties and sky-localization do not depend on the system eccentricity, while orbital parameters such as eccentricity and initial orbital phase show clear trends. Although simplified, our results show that SKA will enable the detection of tens of MBHBs, projecting us into the era of precision gravitational wave astronomy at nano-Hz frequencies.

astro-ph.GA↗