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Gopal P. Sarma

Publications and source records attributed to Gopal P. Sarma.

12 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications

In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting approaches, document significant limitations in existing methods, and propose a research agenda for developing more-robust forecasting infrastructure. The report does not endorse a specific forecast or scenario but rather provides a framework for interpreting forecasts under conditions of deep uncertainty. We experimented with an iterative approach to human and artificial intelligence collaboration for this report. The primary drafting of the text was performed by large language models (GPT 5.1, Gemini 3 Pro, and Claude 4.5 Opus), with human researchers providing direction, peer review, fact-checking, and revision.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2019

Mammalian Value Systems

Characterizing human values is a topic deeply interwoven with the sciences, humanities, art, and many other human endeavors. In recent years, a number of thinkers have argued that accelerating trends in computer science, cognitive science, and related disciplines foreshadow the creation of intelligent machines which meet and ultimately surpass the cognitive abilities of human beings, thereby entangling an understanding of human values with future technological development. Contemporary research accomplishments suggest sophisticated AI systems becoming widespread and responsible for managing many aspects of the modern world, from preemptively planning users' travel schedules and logistics, to fully autonomous vehicles, to domestic robots assisting in daily living. The extrapolation of these trends has been most forcefully described in the context of a hypothetical "intelligence explosion," in which the capabilities of an intelligent software agent would rapidly increase due to the presence of feedback loops unavailable to biological organisms. The possibility of superintelligent agents, or simply the widespread deployment of sophisticated, autonomous AI systems, highlights an important theoretical problem: the need to separate the cognitive and rational capacities of an agent from the fundamental goal structure, or value system, which constrains and guides the agent's actions. The "value alignment problem" is to specify a goal structure for autonomous agents compatible with human values. In this brief article, we suggest that recent ideas from affective neuroscience and related disciplines aimed at characterizing neurological and behavioral universals in the mammalian class provide important conceptual foundations relevant to describing human values. We argue that the notion of "mammalian value systems" points to a potential avenue for fundamental research in AI safety and AI ethics.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2019

Integrative Biological Simulation, Neuropsychology, and AI Safety

We describe a biologically-inspired research agenda with parallel tracks aimed at AI and AI safety. The bottom-up component consists of building a sequence of biophysically realistic simulations of simple organisms such as the nematode $Caenorhabditis$ $elegans$, the fruit fly $Drosophila$ $melanogaster$, and the zebrafish $Danio$ $rerio$ to serve as platforms for research into AI algorithms and system architectures. The top-down component consists of an approach to value alignment that grounds AI goal structures in neuropsychology, broadly considered. Our belief is that parallel pursuit of these tracks will inform the development of value-aligned AI systems that have been inspired by embodied organisms with sensorimotor integration. An important set of side benefits is that the research trajectories we describe here are grounded in long-standing intellectual traditions within existing research communities and funding structures. In addition, these research programs overlap with significant contemporary themes in the biological and psychological sciences such as data/model integration and reproducibility.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2018

Scientific Auditing Firms

The "crisis of reproducibility" has been a significant source of controversy, heated debate, and calls for reform to institutional science in recent years. As a long-term solution to address both the present crisis and future obstacles, I propose the creation of a new form of research organization whose purpose would be to conduct random audits of the scientific literature. I suggest that data analytics of a digitized scientific corpus may play a critical role in allowing broadly educated scientists to identify linchpin results to investigate in further detail across all disciplines. I argue that a simple "mock" trial run of a simplified auditing firm consisting of several researchers over a short time period would provide valuable insight into the feasibility of this proposal.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2018

Scientific Literature Text Mining and the Case for Open Access

"Open access" has become a central theme of journal reform in academic publishing. In this article, I examine the relationship between open access publishing and an important infrastructural element of a modern research enterprise, scientific literature text mining, or the use of data analytic techniques to conduct meta-analyses and investigations into the scientific corpus. I give a brief history of the open access movement, discuss novel journalistic practices, and an overview of data-driven investigation of the scientific corpus. I argue that particularly in an era where the veracity of many research studies has been called into question, scientific literature text mining should be one of the key motivations for open access publishing, not only in the basic sciences, but in the engineering and applied sciences as well. The enormous benefits of unrestricted access to the research literature should prompt scholars from all disciplines to lend their vocal support to enabling legal, wholesale access to the scientific literature as part of a data science pipeline.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2018

Doing Things Twice (Or Differently): Strategies to Identify Studies for Targeted Validation

The "reproducibility crisis" has been a highly visible source of scientific controversy and dispute. Here, I propose and review several avenues for identifying and prioritizing research studies for the purpose of targeted validation. Of the various proposals discussed, I identify scientific data science as being a strategy that merits greater attention among those interested in reproducibility. I argue that the tremendous potential of scientific data science for uncovering high-value research studies is a significant and rarely discussed benefit of the transition to a fully open-access publishing model.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2017

Robust Computer Algebra, Theorem Proving, and Oracle AI

In the context of superintelligent AI systems, the term "oracle" has two meanings. One refers to modular systems queried for domain-specific tasks. Another usage, referring to a class of systems which may be useful for addressing the value alignment and AI control problems, is a superintelligent AI system that only answers questions. The aim of this manuscript is to survey contemporary research problems related to oracles which align with long-term research goals of AI safety. We examine existing question answering systems and argue that their high degree of architectural heterogeneity makes them poor candidates for rigorous analysis as oracles. On the other hand, we identify computer algebra systems (CASs) as being primitive examples of domain-specific oracles for mathematics and argue that efforts to integrate computer algebra systems with theorem provers, systems which have largely been developed independent of one another, provide a concrete set of problems related to the notion of provable safety that has emerged in the AI safety community. We review approaches to interfacing CASs with theorem provers, describe well-defined architectural deficiencies that have been identified with CASs, and suggest possible lines of research and practical software projects for scientists interested in AI safety.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2017

Integrative biological simulation praxis: Considerations from physics, philosophy, and data/model curation practices

Integrative biological simulations have a varied and controversial history in the biological sciences. From computational models of organelles, cells, and simple organisms, to physiological models of tissues, organ systems, and ecosystems, a diverse array of biological systems have been the target of large-scale computational modeling efforts. Nonetheless, these research agendas have yet to prove decisively their value among the broader community of theoretical and experimental biologists. In this commentary, we examine a range of philosophical and practical issues relevant to understanding the potential of integrative simulations. We discuss the role of theory and modeling in different areas of physics and suggest that certain sub-disciplines of physics provide useful cultural analogies for imagining the future role of simulations in biological research. We examine philosophical issues related to modeling which consistently arise in discussions about integrative simulations and suggest a pragmatic viewpoint that balances a belief in philosophy with the recognition of the relative infancy of our state of philosophical understanding. Finally, we discuss community workflow and publication practices to allow research to be readily discoverable and amenable to incorporation into simulations. We argue that there are aligned incentives in widespread adoption of practices which will both advance the needs of integrative simulation efforts as well as other contemporary trends in the biological sciences, ranging from open science and data sharing to improving reproducibility.

q-bio.QM↗
arXiv2017

Unit Testing, Model Validation, and Biological Simulation

The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models.

q-bio.QM↗
arXiv2016

Reductionism and the Universal Calculus

In the seminal essay, "On the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics in the physical sciences," physicist Eugene Wigner poses a fundamental philosophical question concerning the relationship between a physical system and our capacity to model its behavior with the symbolic language of mathematics. In this essay, I examine an ambitious 16th and 17th-century intellectual agenda from the perspective of Wigner's question, namely, what historian Paolo Rossi calls "the quest to create a universal language." While many elite thinkers pursued related ideas, the most inspiring and forceful was Gottfried Leibniz's effort to create a "universal calculus," a pictorial language which would transparently represent the entirety of human knowledge, as well as an associated symbolic calculus with which to model the behavior of physical systems and derive new truths. I suggest that a deeper understanding of why the efforts of Leibniz and others failed could shed light on Wigner's original question. I argue that the notion of reductionism is crucial to characterizing the failure of Leibniz's agenda, but that a decisive argument for the why the promises of this effort did not materialize is still lacking.

physics.hist-ph↗