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Greg Olmschenk

Publications and source records attributed to Greg Olmschenk.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Degeneracy-Aware Pulsar Parameter Estimation from Light Curves via Deep Learning and Test-Time Optimization

Probing properties of neutron stars from photometric observations of these objects helps us answer crucial questions at the forefront of multi-messenger astronomy, such as, what is behavior of highest density matter in extreme environments and what is the procedure of generation and evolution of magnetic fields in these astrophysical environments? However, uncertainties and degeneracies-where different parameter sets produce similar light curves-make this task challenging. We propose a deep learning framework for inferring pulsar parameters from observed light curves. Traditional deep learning models are not designed to produce multiple degenerate solutions for a given input. To address this, we introduce a custom loss function that incorporates a light curve emulator as a forward model, along with a dissimilarity loss that encourages the model to capture diverse, degenerate parameter sets for a given light curve. We further introduce a test-time optimization scheme that refines predicted parameters by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed light curve and those reconstructed by the forward model from predicted parameters during inference. The model is trained using a suite of state-of-the-art simulated pulsar light curves. Finally, we demonstrate that the parameter sets predicted by our approach reproduce light curves that are consistent with the true observation.

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Pioneering High-Speed Pulsar Parameter Estimation Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Accurate thermal emission models of neutron stars are essential for constraining the dense matter equation of state. However, incorporating realistic magnetic field structures is computationally prohibitive, severely constraining feasible parameter space exploration. In this work, we develop a neural network (NN) emulator to generate model thermal bolometric X-ray light curves of millisecond pulsars with multipolar magnetic fields. We assess the NN's predictive and computational performance across a broad parameter space. We find that for a static vacuum field model, the NN provides a >400 times speedup. We integrate this NN emulator into a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) framework to replace the computationally expensive physical model during parameter exploration. Applied to PSR J0030+0451, this approach allows the MCMC to reach equilibrium in ~1 day on 4000 cores, where with the original physical model alone it would have taken more than a year on the same hardware. We compare posterior distributions by running equivalent MCMC iterations with both the NN and the physical model, evaluate differences in distributions when continuing the physical model MCMC from the NN MCMC equilibrium state, and assess variations in posterior distributions resulting from NNs trained on datasets of different sizes. Our NN architecture is agnostic to the underlying physics of the physical model and can be trained for any other physical model, opening many previously intractable avenues of analysis. The NN speed remains the same regardless of the complexity of the physical model it was trained to emulate, allowing greater speedups for more complex physical models.

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A Comprehensive Analysis of Three Microlensing Planet Candidates with the Planet/Binary Degeneracy

We present observations and analyses of three high-magnification microlensing events: KMT-2022-BLG-0954, KMT-2024-BLG-0697, and MOA-2024-BLG-018. All three exhibit the "Planet/Binary" degeneracy, with planetary solutions corresponding to mass ratios in the range $-3.7 < \log q < -2.2$, while the binary solutions yield $\log q > -2.0$. For KMT-2022-BLG-0954, we identify a previously unrecognized degeneracy among planetary solutions, involving different mass ratios and normalized source radii. In all three cases, single-lens binary-source models are excluded. Bayesian analyses suggest that the planetary solutions correspond to gas giants orbiting M/K dwarfs beyond the snow line, while KMT-2022-BLG-0954 also admits an alternative interpretation as a super-Earth orbiting a late-type M dwarf. The binary solutions imply a diverse set of systems, including M-dwarf pairs and M-dwarf--brown-dwarf binaries. A review of known events subject to the "Planet/Binary" degeneracy shows that in most cases the degeneracy cannot be resolved through follow-up high-resolution imaging, particularly in the presence of the newly identified degeneracy.

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Six microlensing planets detected via sub-day signals during the 2023 -- 2024 season

We present analyses of six microlensing events: KMT-2023-BLG-0548, KMT-2023-BLG-0830, KMT-2023-BLG-0949, KMT-2024-BLG-1281, KMT-2024-BLG-2059, and KMT-2024-BLG-2242. These were identified in KMTNet data from the 2023 -- 2024 seasons, selected for exhibiting anomalies shorter than one day -- potential signatures of low-mass planetary companions. Detailed modeling of the light curves reveals that the anomalies in all six events are caused by planetary companions to the lenses. The brief durations of the anomalies are attributed to various factors: a low planet-to-host mass ratio (KMT-2024-BLG-2059, KMT-2024-BLG-2242), a wide planet-host separation (KMT-2023-BLG-0548), small and elongated caustics restricting the source's interaction region (KMT-2023-BLG-0830, KMT-2024-BLG-1281), and a partial caustic crossing (KMT-2023-BLG-0949). { For KMT-2023-BLG-0548, the Bayesian posterior distribution of the lens mass shows two distinct peaks: a low-mass solution indicating a sub-Jovian planet orbiting an M dwarf in the Galactic disk, and a high-mass solution suggesting a super-Jovian planet around a K-type dwarf in the bulge. KMT-2023-BLG-0830 hosts a Neptune-mass planet orbiting an M dwarf in the Galactic bulge. KMT-2023-BLG-0949 involves a super-Jovian planet orbiting a $\sim 0.5~M_\odot$ host located at $\sim 6$ kpc. KMT-2024-BLG-2059Lb is a super-Earth with a mass about seven times that of Earth, orbiting an early M dwarf of $\sim 0.5~M_\odot$. KMT-2024-BLG-1281L hosts a planet slightly more massive than Neptune, orbiting an M dwarf of $\sim 0.3~M_\odot$. The short timescale and small angular Einstein radius of KMT-2024-BLG-2242 suggest a $\sim 0.07~M_\odot$ primary, likely a brown dwarf, with a Uranus/Neptune-mass planet.

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Four binary microlenses with directly measured masses

We investigated binary lens events from the 2022-2024 microlensing surveys, aiming to identify events suitable for lens mass measurements. We focused on two key light curve features: distinct caustic spikes with resolved crossings for measuring the angular Einstein radius ($θ_{\rm E}$), and long durations enabling microlens-parallax ($π_{\rm E}$) measurements. Four events met these criteria: KMT-2022-BLG-1479, KMT-2023-BLG-0932, OGLE-2024-BLG-0142, and KMT-2024-BLG-1309. We estimated the angular Einstein radius by combining the normalized source radius measured from modeling the resolved caustic spikes with the angular source radius derived from the source color and magnitude. Additionally, we determined the microlens parallax through light curve modeling, considering higher-order effects caused by the orbital motions of Earth and the binary lens. With measurements of the event timescale, angular Einstein radius, and microlens parallax, we uniquely determined the mass and distance of the lens. For the events KMT-2022-BLG-1479, KMT-2023-BLG-0932, and KMT-2024-BLG-1309, both components of the binary lens have masses lower than that of the Sun, consistent with M-type dwarfs, which are the most common type of lenses in Galactic microlensing events. These lenses are relatively nearby, with distances $\lesssim 2.5$ kpc, indicating their location within the Galactic disk. In contrast, for OGLE-2024-BLG-0142, the primary lens component has a mass similar to that of the Sun, while the companion lens component has about half the mass of the primary. This lens system is situated at a greater distance, roughly 4.5 kpc.

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KMT-2022-BLG-0086: Another binary-lens binary-source microlensing event

We present the analysis of a microlensing event KMT-2022-BLG-0086 of which the overall light curve is not described by a binary-lens single-source (2L1S) model, which suggests the existence of an extra lens or an extra source. We found that the event is best explained by the binary-lens binary-source (2L2S) model, but the 2L2S model is only favored over the triple-lens single-source (3L1S) model by $Δχ^{2} \simeq 9$. Although the event has noticeable anomalies around the peak of the light curve, they are not enough covered to constrain the angular Einstein radius $θ_{\rm E}$, thus we only measure the minimum angular Einstein radius $θ_{\rm E,min}$. From the Bayesian analysis, it is found that that the binary lens system is a binary star with masses of $(m_1,m_2)=(0.46^{+0.35}_{-0.25}\, M_\odot, 0.75^{+0.67}_{-0.55}\, M_\odot)$ at a distance of $D_{\rm L}=5.87^{+1.21}_{-1.79}$ kpc, while the triple lens system is a brown dwarf or a massive giant planet in a low-mass binary-star system with masses of $(m_1,m_2,m_3)=(0.43^{+0.41}_{-0.35}\, M_\odot, 0.056^{+0.055}_{-0.047}\, M_\odot, 20.84^{+20.20}_{-17.04}\, M_{\rm J})$ at a distance of $D_{\rm L}=4.06^{+1.39}_{-3.28}$ kpc, indicating a disk lens system. The 2L2S model yields the relative lens-source proper motion of $μ_{\rm rel} \geqslant 4.6\, \rm mas\, yr^{-1}$ that is consistent with the Bayesian result, whereas the 3L1S model yields $μ_{\rm rel} \geqslant 18.9\, \rm mas\, yr^{-1}$, which is more than three times larger than that of a typical disk object of $\sim 6\, \rm mas\, yr^{-1}$ and thus is not consistent with the Bayesian result. This suggests that the event is likely caused by the binary-lens binary-source model.

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The TESS Ten Thousand Catalog: 10,001 uniformly-vetted and -validated Eclipsing Binary Stars detected in Full-Frame Image data by machine learning and analyzed by citizen scientists

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has surveyed nearly the entire sky in Full-Frame Image mode with a time resolution of 200 seconds to 30 minutes and a temporal baseline of at least 27 days. In addition to the primary goal of discovering new exoplanets, TESS is exceptionally capable at detecting variable stars, and in particular short-period eclipsing binaries which are relatively common, making up a few percent of all stars, and represent powerful astrophysical laboratories for deep investigations of stellar formation and evolution. We combed Sectors 1-82 of TESS Full-Frame Image data searching for eclipsing binary stars using a neural network that identified ~1.2 million stars with eclipse-like features. Of these, we have performed an in-depth analysis on ~60,000 targets using automated methods and manual inspection by citizen scientists. Here we present a catalog of 10001 uniformly-vetted and -validated eclipsing binary stars that passed all our ephemeris and photocenter tests, as well as complementary visual inspection. Of these, 7936 are new eclipsing binaries while the remaining 2065 are known systems for which we update the published ephemerides. We outline the detection and analysis of the targets, discuss the properties of the sample, and highlight potentially interesting systems. Finally, we also provide a list of ~900,000 unvetted and unvalidated targets for which the neural network found eclipse-like features with a score higher than 0.9, and for which there are no known eclipsing binaries within a sky-projected separation of a TESS pixel (~21 arcsec).

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MOA-2022-BLG-091Lb and KMT-2024-BLG-1209Lb: Microlensing planets detected through weak caustic-crossing signals

The light curves of the microlensing events MOA-2022-BLG-091 and KMT-2024-BLG-1209 exhibit anomalies with very similar features. These anomalies appear near the peaks of the light curves, where the magnifications are moderately high, and are distinguished by weak caustic-crossing features with minimal distortion while the source remains inside the caustic. To achieve a deeper understanding of these anomalies, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the lensing events. We carried out binary-lens modeling with a thorough exploration of the parameter space. This analysis revealed that the anomalies in both events are of planetary origin, although their exact interpretation is complicated by different types of degeneracy. In the case of MOA-2022-BLG-091, the main difficulty in the interpretation of the anomaly arises from a newly identified degeneracy related to the uncertain angle at which the source trajectory intersects the planet-host axis. For KMT-2024-BLG-1209, the interpretation is affected by the previously known inner-outer degeneracy, which leads to ambiguity between solutions in which the source passes through either the inner or outer caustic region relative to the planet host. Bayesian analysis indicates that the planets in both lens systems are giant planets with masses about 2 to 4 times that of Jupiter, orbiting early K-type main-sequence stars. Both systems are likely located in the Galactic disk at a distance of around 4 kiloparsecs. The degeneracy in KMT-2024-BLG-1209 is challenging to resolve because it stems from intrinsic similarities in the caustic structures of the degenerate solutions. In contrast, the degeneracy in MOA-2022-BLG-091, which occurs by chance rather than from inherent characteristics, is expected to be resolved by the future space based Roman RGES microlensing survey.

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KMT-2022-BLG-1818Lb,c: A Cold Super-Jupiter with a Saturn Sibling

We present the discovery and analysis of the sixth microlensing two-planet system, KMT-2022-BLG-1818Lb,c, detected by a follow-up program targeting high-magnification events. Both planets are subject to the well-known ''Close/Wide'' degeneracy, although for the first planet, which has a super-Jovian mass ratio of $q_2 \simeq 5\times 10^{-3}$ in both solutions, the Close topology, with a normalized separation of $s\simeq 0.70$, is clearly preferred by $Δχ^2=26$. However, contrary to all previous two-planet microlensing systems, the mass ratio for the second planet, $q_3$, is substantially (factor of $\sim 10$) different for the Close and Wide topologies of the first planet. While this degeneracy is resolved in the present case due to high-cadence follow-up observations, the appearance of this new degeneracy indicates the need for caution in the analysis of future two-planet systems. A Bayesian analysis suggests that the host is likely a K-dwarf star in the Galactic disk. The first planet is probably a super-Jupiter on a Jupiter-like orbit, while the second planet is a Saturn-class planet on either a Mercury-like or Saturn-like orbit.

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Microlensing events indicate that super-Earth exoplanets are common in Jupiter-like orbits

Exoplanets classified as super-Earths are commonly observed on short period orbits, close to their host stars, but their abundance on wider orbits is poorly constrained. Gravitational microlensing is sensitive to exoplanets on wide orbits. We observed the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0007, which indicates an exoplanet with a planet-to-star mass ratio roughly double the Earth-Sun mass-ratio, on an orbit longer than Saturn's. We combine this event with a larger sample from a microlensing survey to determine the distribution of mass ratios for planets on wide orbits. We infer there are $\sim 0.35$ super-Earth planets per star on Jupiter-like orbits. The observations are most consistent with a bimodal distribution, with separate peaks for super-Earths and gas giants. We suggest that this reflects differences in their formation processes.

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Systematic Reanalysis of KMTNet Microlensing Events, Paper II: Two New Planets in Giant-Source Events

In this work, we continue to apply the updated KMTNet tender-love care (TLC) photometric pipeline to historical microlensing events. We apply the pipeline to a subsample of events from the KMTNet database, which we refer to as the giant source sample. Leveraging the improved photometric data, we conduct a systematic search for anomalies within this sample. The search successfully uncovers four new planet-like anomalies and recovers two previously known planetary signals. After detailed analysis, two of the newly discovered anomalies are confirmed as clear planets: KMT-2019-BLG-0578 and KMT-2021-BLG-0736. Their planet-to-host mass ratios are $q\sim4\times10^{-3}$ and $q\sim1\times10^{-4}$, respectively. Another event, OGLE-2018-BLG-0421 (KMT-2018-BLG-0831), remains ambiguous. Both a stellar companion and a giant planet in the lens system could potentially explain the observed anomaly. The anomaly signal of the last event, MOA-2022-BLG-038 (KMT-2022-BLG-2342), is attributed to an extra source star. Within this sample, our procedure doubles the number of confirmed planets, demonstrating a significant enhancement in the survey sensitivity.

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MOA-2020-BLG-135Lb: A New Neptune-class Planet for the Extended MOA-II Exoplanet Microlens Statistical Analysis

We report the light-curve analysis for the event MOA-2020-BLG-135, which leads to the discovery of a new Neptune-class planet, MOA-2020-BLG-135Lb. With a derived mass ratio of $q=1.52_{-0.31}^{+0.39} \times 10^{-4}$ and separation $s\approx1$, the planet lies exactly at the break and likely peak of the exoplanet mass-ratio function derived by the MOA collaboration (Suzuki et al. 2016). We estimate the properties of the lens system based on a Galactic model and considering two different Bayesian priors: one assuming that all stars have an equal planet-hosting probability and the other that planets are more likely to orbit more massive stars. With a uniform host mass prior, we predict that the lens system is likely to be a planet of mass $m_\mathrm{planet}=11.3_{-6.9}^{+19.2} M_\oplus$ and a host star of mass $M_\mathrm{host}=0.23_{-0.14}^{+0.39} M_\odot$, located at a distance $D_L=7.9_{-1.0}^{+1.0}\;\mathrm{kpc}$. With a prior that holds that planet occurrence scales in proportion to the host star mass, the estimated lens system properties are $m_\mathrm{planet}=25_{-15}^{+22} M_\oplus$, $M_\mathrm{host}=0.53_{-0.32}^{+0.42} M_\odot$, and $D_L=8.3_{-1.0}^{+0.9}\; \mathrm{kpc}$. This planet qualifies for inclusion in the extended MOA-II exoplanet microlens sample.

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Analyses of anomalous lensing events detected from the UKIRT microlensing survey

The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) microlensing survey was conducted over four years, from 2016 to 2019, with the goal of serving as a precursor to future near-infrared microlensing surveys (Shvartzvald et al. 2017). Focusing on stars in the Galactic center and utilizing near-infrared passbands, the survey identified approximately one thousand microlensing events, 27 of which displayed anomalies in their light curves (Wen et al. 2023). This paper presents an analysis of these anomalous events, aiming to uncover the underlying causes of the observed anomalies. The events were analyzed under various configurations, considering the potential binarity of both the lens and the source. For 11 events that were additionally observed by other optical microlensing surveys, including those conducted by the OGLE, KMTNet, and MOA collaborations, we incorporated their data into our analysis. Among the reported anomalous events, we revealed the nature of 24 events except for three events, in which one was likely to be a transient variable, and two were were difficult to accurately characterize their nature due to the limitations of the available data. We confirmed the binary lens nature of the anomalies in 22 events. Among these, we verified the earlier discovery that the companion in the binary lens system UKIRT11L is a planetary object. Accurately describing the anomaly in UKIRT21 required a model that accounted for the binarity of both the lens and the source. For two events UKIRT01 and UKIRT17, the anomalies could be interpreted using either a binary-source or a binary-lens model.

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Exoplanet Transit Candidate Identification in TESS Full-Frame Images via a Transformer-Based Algorithm

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is surveying a large fraction of the sky, generating a vast database of photometric time series data that requires thorough analysis to identify exoplanetary transit signals. Automated learning approaches have been successfully applied to identify transit signals. However, most existing methods focus on the classification and validation of candidates, while few efforts have explored new techniques for the search of candidates. To search for new exoplanet transit candidates, we propose an approach to identify exoplanet transit signals without the need for phase folding or assuming periodicity in the transit signals, such as those observed in multi-transit light curves. To achieve this, we implement a new neural network inspired by Transformers to directly process Full Frame Image (FFI) light curves to detect exoplanet transits. Transformers, originally developed for natural language processing, have recently demonstrated significant success in capturing long-range dependencies compared to previous approaches focused on sequential data. This ability allows us to employ multi-head self-attention to identify exoplanet transit signals directly from the complete light curves, combined with background and centroid time series, without requiring prior transit parameters. The network is trained to learn characteristics of the transit signal, like the dip shape, which helps distinguish planetary transits from other variability sources. Our model successfully identified 214 new planetary system candidates, including 122 multi-transit light curves, 88 single-transit and 4 multi-planet systems from TESS sectors 1-26 with a radius > 0.27 $R_{\mathrm{Jupiter}}$, demonstrating its ability to detect transits regardless of their periodicity.

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MOA-2022-BLG-033Lb, KMT-2023-BLG-0119Lb, and KMT-2023-BLG-1896Lb: Three low mass-ratio microlensing planets detected through dip signals

We examined the anomalies in the light curves of the lensing events MOA-2022-BLG-033, KMT-2023-BLG-0119, and KMT-2023-BLG-1896. We conducted detailed modeling of the light curves to uncover the nature of the anomalies. This modeling revealed that all signals originated from planetary companions to the primary lens. The planet-to-host mass ratios are very low: $q\sim 7.5\times 10^{-5}$ for MOA-2022-BLG-033, $q\sim 3.6\times 10^{-4}$ for KMT-2023-BLG-0119, and $q\sim 6.9\times 10^{-5}$ for KMT-2023-BLG-1896. The anomalies occurred as the source passed through the negative deviation region behind the central caustic along the planet-host axis. The solutions are subject to a common inner-outer degeneracy, resulting in variations in estimating the projected planet-host separation. For KMT-2023-BLG-1896, although the planetary scenario provides the best explanation of the anomaly, the binary companion scenario is marginally possible. We estimate the physical parameters of the planetary systems through Bayesian analyses based on the lensing observables. The analysis identifies MOA-2022-BLG-033L as a planetary system with an ice giant, approximately 12 times the mass of Earth, orbiting an early M dwarf star. The companion of KMT-2023-BLG-1896L is also an ice giant, with a mass around 16 Earth masses, orbiting a mid-K-type main-sequence star. The companion of KMT-2023-BLG-0119L, which has a mass about the mass of Saturn, orbits a mid-K-type dwarf star. The lens for MOA-2022-BLG-033 is highly likely to be located in the disk, whereas for the other events, the probabilities of the lens being in the disk or the bulge are roughly comparable.

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KMT-2021-BLG-0284, KMT-2022-BLG-2480, and KMT-2024-BLG-0412: Three microlensing events involving two lens masses and two source stars

We carried out a project involving the systematic analysis of microlensing data from the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network survey. The aim of this project is to identify lensing events with complex anomaly features that are difficult to explain using standard binary-lens or binary-source models. Our investigation reveals that the light curves of microlensing events KMT-2021-BLG-0284, KMT-2022-BLG-2480, and KMT-2024-BLG-0412 display highly complex patterns with three or more anomaly features. These features cannot be adequately explained by a binary-lens (2L1S) model alone. However, the 2L1S model can effectively describe certain segments of the light curve. By incorporating an additional source into the modeling, we identified a comprehensive model that accounts for all the observed anomaly features. Bayesian analysis, based on constraints provided by lensing observables, indicates that the lenses of KMT-2021-BLG-0284 and KMT-2024-BLG-0412 are binary systems composed of M dwarfs. For KMT-2022-BLG-2480, the primary lens is an early K-type main-sequence star with an M dwarf companion. The lenses of KMT-2021-BLG-0284 and KMT-2024-BLG-0412 are likely located in the bulge, whereas the lens of KMT-2022-BLG-2480 is more likely situated in the disk. In all events, the binary stars of the sources have similar magnitudes due to a detection bias favoring binary source events with a relatively bright secondary source star, which increases detection efficiency.

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The Microlensing Event Rate and Optical Depth from MOA-II 9 year Survey toward the Galactic Bulge

We present measurements of the microlensing optical depth and event rate toward the Galactic bulge using the dataset from the 2006--2014 MOA-II survey, which covers 22 bulge fields spanning ~42 deg^2 between -5 deg < l < 10 deg and -7 deg < b < -1 deg. In the central region with |l|<5 deg, we estimate an optical depth of τ = [1.75+-0.04]*10^-6exp[(0.34+-0.02)(3 deg-|b|)] and an event rate of Γ = [16.08+-0.28]*10^-6exp[(0.44+-0.02)(3 deg-|b|)] star^-1 year^-1 using a sample consisting of 3525 microlensing events, with Einstein radius crossing times of tE < 760 days and source star magnitude of IsWe confirm our results are consistent with the latest measurements from OGLE-IV 8 year dataset (Mróz et al. 2019). We find our result is inconsistent with a prediction based on Galactic models, especially in the central region with |b|<3 deg. These results can be used to improve the Galactic bulge model, and more central regions can be further elucidated by future microlensing experiments, such as The PRime-focus Infrared Microlensing Experiment (PRIME) and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

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Short-period Heartbeat Binaries from TESS Full-Frame Images

We identify $240$ short-period ($P \lesssim 10$ days) binary systems in the TESS data, $180$ of which are heartbeat binaries (HB). The sample is mostly a mix of A and B-type stars and primarily includes eclipsing systems, where over $30\%$ of the sources with primary and secondary eclipses show a secular change in their inter-eclipse timings and relative eclipse depths over a multi-year timescale, likely due to orbital precession. The orbital parameters of the population are estimated by fitting a heartbeat model to their phase curves and Gaia magnitudes, where the model accounts for ellipsoidal variability, Doppler beaming, reflection effects, and eclipses. We construct the sample's period-eccentricity distribution and find an eccentricity cutoff (where $e \rightarrow 0$) at a period $1.7$ days. Additionally, we measure the periastron advance rate for the $12$ of the precessing sources and find that they all exhibit prograde apsidal precession, which is as high as $9^{\circ}$ yr$^{-1}$ for one of the systems. Using the inferred stellar parameters, we estimate the general relativistic precession rate of the argument of periastron for the population and expect over $30$ systems to show a precession in excess of $0.3^{\circ}$ yr$^{-1}$

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