arXiv subjects

Greg Taylor

Publications and source records attributed to Greg Taylor.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Auto-balanced common shock claim models

The paper is concerned with common shock models of claim triangles. These are usually constructed as a linear combinations of shock components and idiosyncratic components. Previous literature has discussed the unbalanced property of such models, whereby the shocks may over- or under-contribute to some observations. The literature has also introduced corrections for this. The present paper discusses 'auto-balanced' models, in which all shock and idiosyncratic components contribute to observations such that their proportionate contributions are constant from one observation to another. The conditions for auto-balance are found to be simple and applicable to a wide range of model structures. Numerical illustrations are given.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Stochastic loss reserving with mixture density neural networks

Neural networks offer a versatile, flexible and accurate approach to loss reserving. However, such applications have focused primarily on the (important) problem of fitting accurate central estimates of the outstanding claims. In practice, properties regarding the variability of outstanding claims are equally important (e.g., quantiles for regulatory purposes). In this paper we fill this gap by applying a Mixture Density Network ("MDN") to loss reserving. The approach combines a neural network architecture with a mixture Gaussian distribution to achieve simultaneously an accurate central estimate along with flexible distributional choice. Model fitting is done using a rolling-origin approach. Our approach consistently outperforms the classical over-dispersed model both for central estimates and quantiles of interest, when applied to a wide range of simulated environments of various complexity and specifications. We further extend the MDN approach by proposing two extensions. Firstly, we present a hybrid GLM-MDN approach called "ResMDN". This hybrid approach balances the tractability and ease of understanding of a traditional GLM model on one hand, with the additional accuracy and distributional flexibility provided by the MDN on the other. We show that it can successfully improve the errors of the baseline ccODP, although there is generally a loss of performance when compared to the MDN in the examples we considered. Secondly, we allow for explicit projection constraints, so that actuarial judgement can be directly incorporated in the modelling process. Throughout, we focus on aggregate loss triangles, and show that our methodologies are tractable, and that they out-perform traditional approaches even with relatively limited amounts of data. We use both simulated data -- to validate properties, and real data -- to illustrate and ascertain practicality of the approaches.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Bringing SOUL on sky

The SOUL project is upgrading the 4 SCAO systems of LBT, pushing the current guide star limits of about 2 magnitudes fainter thanks to Electron Multiplied CCD detector. This improvement will open the NGS SCAO correction to a wider number of scientific cases from high contrast imaging in the visible to extra-galactic source in the NIR. The SOUL systems are today the unique case where pyramid WFS, adaptive secondary and EMCCD are used together. This makes SOUL a pathfinder for most of the ELT SCAO systems like the one of GMT, MICADO and HARMONI of E-ELT, where the same key technologies will be employed. Today we have 3 SOUL systems installed on the telescope in commissioning phase. The 4th system will be installed in a few months. We will present here the results achieved during daytime testing and commissioning nights up to the present date.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

Observing Flare Stars Below 100 MHz with the LWA

We observed the flare stars AD Leonis, Wolf 424, EQ Pegasi, EV Lacertae, and UV Ceti for nearly 135 hours. These stars were observed between 63 and 83 MHz using the interferometry mode of the Long Wavelength Array. Given that emission from flare stars is typically circularly polarized, we used the condition that any significant detection present in Stokes I must also be present in Stokes V at the same time in order for us to consider it a possible flare. Following this, we made one marginal flare detection for the star EQ Pegasi. This flare had a flux density of 5.91 Jy in Stokes I and 5.13 Jy in Stokes V, corresponding to a brightness temperature $1.75 \times 10^{16}(r/r_*)^{-2}$ K.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Modelling and understanding count processes through a Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process framework

The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through the introduction of a flexible frequency perturbation measure. This contribution enables known information of observed event arrivals to be naturally incorporated in a tractable manner, while the hidden Markov chain captures the effect of unobservable drivers of the data. In addition to increases in accuracy and interpretability, this method supplements analysis of the latent factors. Further, this procedure naturally incorporates data features such as over-dispersion and autocorrelation. Additional insights can be generated to assist analysis, including a procedure for iterative model improvement. Implementation difficulties are also addressed with a focus on dealing with large data sets, where latent models are especially advantageous due the large number of observations facilitating identification of hidden factors. Namely, computational issues such as numerical underflow and high processing cost arise in this context and in this paper, we produce procedures to overcome these problems. This modelling framework is demonstrated using a large insurance data set to illustrate theoretical, practical and computational contributions and an empirical comparison to other count models highlight the advantages of the proposed approach.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

Detection of Echoes in PSR B1508+55 at frequencies below 100 MHz using the LWA1

PSR B1508+55 is known to have a single component profile above 300 MHz. However, when we study it at frequencies below 100 MHz using the first station of the Long Wavelength Array, it shows multiple components. These include the main pulse, a precursor, a postcursor, and a trailing component. The separation of the trailing component from the main peak evolves over the course of a three year study. This evolution is likely an effect of the pulse signal getting refracted off an ionized gas cloud (acting as a lens) leading to what appears to be a trailing component in the profile as the pulsar signal traverses the interstellar medium. Using this interpretation, we identify the location and electron density of the lens affecting the pulse profile.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Self-triggered radio detection and identification of cosmic air showers with the OVRO-LWA

A successful ground array Radio Frequency (RF)-only self-trigger on 10 high-energy cosmic ray events is demonstrated with 256 dual-polarization antennas of the Owens Valley Radio Observatory Long Wavelength Array (OVRO-LWA). This RF-only capability is predicated on novel techniques for Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) identification and mitigation with an analysis efficiency of 45\% for shower-driven events with a Signal-to-noise ratio $\gtrsim$ 5 against the galactic background noise power of individual antennas. This technique enables more efficient detection of cosmic rays over a wider range of zenith angles than possible via triggers from in-situ particle detectors and can be easily adapted by neutrino experiments relying on RF-only detection. This paper discusses the system design, RFI characterization and mitigation techniques, and initial results from 10 cosmic ray events identified within a 40-hour observing window. A design for a future optimized commensal cosmic-ray detector for the OVRO-LWA is presented, as well as recommendations for developing a similar capability for other experiments -- these designs either reduce data-rate or increase sensitivity by an order of magnitude for many configurations of radio instruments.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

A Real-Time, All-Sky, High Time Resolution, Direct Imager for the Long Wavelength Array

The future of radio astronomy will require instruments with large collecting areas for higher sensitivity, wide fields of view for faster survey speeds, and efficient computing and data rates relative to current capabilities. We describe the first successful deployment of the E-field Parallel Imaging Correlator (EPIC) on the LWA station in Sevilleta, New Mexico, USA (LWA-SV). EPIC is a solution to the computational problem of large interferometers. By gridding and spatially Fourier transforming channelised electric fields from the antennas in real-time, EPIC removes the explicit cross multiplication of all pairs of antenna voltages to synthesize an aperture, reducing the computational scaling from $\mathcal{O}(n_a^2)$ to $\mathcal{O}(n_g \log_2 n_g)$, where $n_a$ is the number of antennas and $n_g$ is the number of grid points. Not only does this save computational costs for dense arrays but it produces very high time resolution images in real time. The GPU-based implementation uses existing LWA-SV hardware and the high performance streaming framework, Bifrost. We examine the practical details of the EPIC deployment and verify the imaging performance by detecting a meteor impact on the atmosphere using continuous all-sky imaging at 50 ms time resolution.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

Studying the magnetized ISM with all-sky polarimetric radio maps

Synchrotron radiation from the interstellar medium (ISM) of our galaxy dominates the sky brightness at low radio frequencies, and carries information about relativistic and thermal electron distributions across a range of astrophysical environments. The polarization of the radiation, as modified by Faraday rotation effects in the ISM, also contains extensive information about the magnetic field. Comprehensive all-sky broadband mapping of this radiation, when combined with high frequency radio data, gamma ray data, cosmic ray (CR) measurements and sophisticated modeling, can revolutionize our understanding of the ISM and the processes that influence its evolution. Current widefield imagery of the galactic synchrotron emission is heterogeneous in frequency coverage, sky coverage, angular resolution and calibration accuracy, limiting utility for ISM studies. A new generation of all-digital low frequency array technologies is opening a path to matched resolution, high fidelity polarimetric imaging across a fully sampled swath of radio frequencies from a few tens to many hundreds of MHz, generating a transformational dataset for a broad range of scientific applications.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

The Next-Generation Very Large Array: Supermassive Black Hole Pairs and Binaries

The Next-Generation Very Large Array (ngVLA) has the potential to be a workhorse for the discovery and study of paired supermassive black holes either at large separations (dual) or in tightly bound systems (binary). In this chapter, we outline the science case for the study of these supermassive pairs, and summarize discovery methods that can be used at radio wavelengths to discover them: including morphological, spectral, and time-domain identifications. One critical aspect of this work is that multi-messenger binary black hole studies may be possible with the ngVLA when combined with gravitational-wave searches using pulsar timing array techniques. However, long-baseline interferometery (>>1000 km) will make this possibility more likely by expanding the redshift range at which radio emission arising from two separate black holes may be resolved and studied.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

A Next Generation Low Band Observatory: A Community Study Exploring Low Frequency Options for ngVLA

We present a community study exploring the low frequency (5 - 800 MHz) options and opportunities for the ngVLA project and its infrastructure. We describe a Next Generation LOw Band Observatory (ngLOBO) that will provide access to the low frequency sky in a commensal fashion, operating independently from the ngVLA, but leveraging common infrastructure. This approach provides continuous coverage through an aperture array (called ngLOBO-Low) below 150 MHz and by accessing the primary focus of the ngVLA antennas (called ngLOBO-High) above 150 MHz. ngLOBO preconditions include a) non-interference and b) low relative cost (<5%) with respect to ngVLA. ngLOBO has three primary scientific missions: (1) Radio Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (Radio-LSST): one naturally wide beam, commensal with ngVLA, will conduct a continuous synoptic survey of large swaths of the sky for both slow and fast transients; (2) This same commensal beam will provide complementary low frequency images of all ngVLA targets and their environment {\it when such data enhances their value}. (3) Independent beams from the ngLOBO-Low aperture array will conduct research in astrophysics, Earth science and space weather applications, engaging new communities and attracting independent resources. If ngVLA operates down to 2 GHz or lower, ngLOBO data will enhance ngVLA calibration and dynamic scheduling. Finally, non-variable field sources outside the ngVLA field of view can be harvested for serendipitous science, e.g. population studies for thermal and non-thermal continuum sources. The ngVLA will be a superb, high frequency instrument; ngLOBO will allow it to participate in the worldwide renaissance in low frequency science as well.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Polarization Signatures of Kink Instabilities in the Blazar Emission Region from Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

Kink instabilities are likely to occur in the current-carrying magnetized plasma jets. Recent observations of the blazar radiation and polarization signatures suggest that the blazar emission region may be considerably magnetized. While the kink instability has been studied with first-principle magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations, the corresponding time-dependent radiation and polarization signatures have not been investigated. In this paper, we perform comprehensive polarization-dependent radiation modeling of the kink instability in the blazar emission region based on relativistic MHD (RMHD) simulations. We find that the kink instability may give rise to strong flares with polarization angle (PA) swings or weak flares with polarization fluctuations, depending on the initial magnetic topology and magnetization. These findings are consistent with observations. Compared with the shock model, the kink model generates polarization signatures that are in better agreement with the general polarization observations. Therefore, we suggest that kink instabilities may widely exist in the jet environment, and provide an efficient way to convert the magnetic energy and produce multiwavelength flares and polarization variations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

Very Long Baseline Interferometry with the SKA

Adding VLBI capability to the SKA arrays will greatly broaden the science of the SKA, and is feasible within the current specifications. SKA-VLBI can be initially implemented by providing phased-array outputs for SKA1-MID and SKA1-SUR and using these extremely sensitive stations with other radio telescopes, and in SKA2 by realising a distributed configuration providing baselines up to thousands of km, merging it with existing VLBI networks. The motivation for and the possible realization of SKA-VLBI is described in this paper.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2012

VLBI and Archival VLA and WSRT Observations of the GRB 030329 Radio Afterglow

We present VLBI and archival Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) and Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) observations of the radio afterglow from the gamma-ray burst (GRB) of 2003 March 29 (GRB 030329) taken between 672 and 2032 days after the burst. The EVLA and WSRT data suggest a simple power law decay in the flux at 5 GHz, with no clear signature of any rebrightening from the counter jet. We report an unresolved source at day 2032 of size $1.18\pm0.13$ mas, which we use in conjunction with the expansion rate of the burst to argue for the presence of a uniform, ISM-like circumburst medium. We develop a semi-analytic method to model gamma-ray burst afterglows, and apply it to the 5 GHz light curve to perform burst calorimetry. A limit of $< 0.067$ mas yr$^{-1}$ is placed on the proper motion, supporting the standard afterglow model for gamma-ray bursts.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2010

Extreme AGN Feedback and Cool Core Destruction in the X-ray Luminous Galaxy Cluster MACS J1931.8-2634

We report on a deep, multiwavelength study of the galaxy cluster MACS J1931.8-2634 using Chandra X-ray, Subaru optical, and VLA 1.4 GHz radio data. This cluster (z=0.352) harbors one of the most X-ray luminous cool cores yet discovered, with an equivalent mass cooling rate within the central 50 kpc is approximately 700 solar masses/yr. Unique features observed in the central core of MACSJ1931.8-2634 hint to a wealth of past activity that has greatly disrupted the original cool core. We observe a spiral of relatively cool, dense, X-ray emitting gas connected to the cool core, as well as highly elongated intracluster light (ICL) surrounding the cD galaxy. Extended radio emission is observed surrounding the central AGN, elongated in the east-west direction, spatially coincident with X-ray cavities. The power input required to inflate these `bubbles' is estimated from both the X-ray and radio emission to reside between 4 and 14e45 erg/s, putting it among the most powerful jets ever observed. This combination of a powerful AGN outburst and bulk motion of the cool core have resulted in two X-ray bright ridges to form to the north and south of the central AGN at a distance of approximately 25 kpc. The northern ridge has spectral characteristics typical of cool cores and is consistent with being a remnant of the cool core after it was disrupted by the AGN and bulk motions. It is also the site of H-alpha filaments and young stars. The X-ray spectroscopic cooling rate associated with this ridge is approximately 165 solar masses/yr, which agrees with the estimate of the star formation rate from broad-band optical imaging (170 solar masses/yr). MACS J1931.8-2634 appears to harbor one of most profoundly disrupted low entropy cores observed in a cluster, and offers new insights into the survivability of cool cores in the context of hierarchical structure formation.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2010

The radio properties of a complete, X-ray selected sample of nearby, massive elliptical galaxies

We investigate the radio properties of a complete sample of nearby, massive, X-ray bright elliptical and S0 galaxies. Our sample contains 18 galaxies with ROSAT All-Sky Survey X-ray fluxes Fx_(0.1-2.4 keV) > 3 x 10^(-12) erg/s/cm^2, within a distance of 100 Mpc. For these galaxies, we have complete (18/18) VLA radio and Chandra X-ray coverage. Nuclear radio emission is detected from 17/18 of the galaxies. Ten of the galaxies exhibit extended radio emission; of these ten, all but one also exhibit clear evidence of interaction of the radio source with the surrounding, X-ray emitting gas. Among the seven galaxies with unresolved radio sources, one has clear, and one has small, cavity-like features in the Chandra X-ray images; a third has a disturbed X-ray morphology. Using a radio luminosity limit equivalent to L_(1.4 Ghz) > 10^(23) W/Hz to calculate the radio-loud fraction, we find that this misses the majority of the radio detected galaxies in the sample. We determine integrated radio-to-X-ray flux ratios for the galaxies, GRx, which are shown to span a large range (factor of 100). We calculate the mass-weighted cooling times within 1 kpc, and find hints for an anticorrelation with the radio luminosity. We also calculate limits on k/f, where k is the ratio of the total particle energy to that of relativistic electrons radiating in the range 10 MHz-10 GHz and f is the volume filling factor of the plasma in the cavity. The k/f distribution is also broad, reflecting previous results for larger galaxy clusters. Lowering the X-ray flux limit, at the expense of less complete VLA and Chandra coverage, increases the size of our sample to 42 galaxies. Nuclear radio activity is detected in at least 34/42 of this extended sample.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2004

A2255: the First Detection of Filamentary Polarized Emission in a Radio Halo

A deep radio observation of the A2255 cluster of galaxies has been carried out at 1.4 GHz with the Very Large Array synthesis telescope. Thanks to the excellent (u,v) coverage and sensitivity achieved by our observation, the low brightness diffuse extended sources in the cluster (radio halo and relic) have been imaged with unprecedented resolution and dynamic range. We find that the radio halo has filamentary structures that are strongly polarized. The fractional linear polarization reaches levels of $\simeq$ 20$-$40% and the magnetic fields appear ordered on scales of $\sim$400 kpc. This is the first successful attempt to detect polarized emission from a radio halo and provides strong evidence that in this cluster the magnetic field is ordered on large scales.

astro-ph↗