arXiv subjects

Gregory Ashton

Publications and source records attributed to Gregory Ashton.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Inferring the Astrophysical Population of Gravitational Wave Sources in the Presence of Noise Transients

The global network of interferometric gravitational wave (GW) observatories (LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA) has detected and characterized nearly 100 mergers of binary compact objects. However, many more real GWs are lurking sub-threshold, which need to be sifted from terrestrial-origin noise triggers (known as glitches). Because glitches are not due to astrophysical phenomena, inference on the glitch under the assumption it has an astrophysical source (e.g. binary black hole coalescence) results in source parameters that are inconsistent with what is known about the astrophysical population. In this work, we show how one can extract unbiased population constraints from a catalog of both real GW events and glitch contaminants by performing Bayesian inference on their source populations simultaneously. In this paper, we assume glitches come from a specific class with a well-characterized effective population (blip glitches). We also calculate posteriors on the probability of each event in the catalog belonging to the astrophysical or glitch class, and obtain posteriors on the number of astrophysical events in the catalog, finding it to be consistent with the actual number of events included.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Improving pulsar-timing solutions through dynamic pulse fitting

Precision pulsar timing is integral to the detection of the nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave background as well as understanding the physics of neutron stars. Conventional pulsar timing often uses fixed time and frequency-averaged templates to determine the pulse times of arrival, which can lead to reduced accuracy when the pulse profile evolves over time. We illustrate a dynamic timing method that fits each observing epoch using basis functions. By fitting each epoch separately, we allow for the evolution of the pulse shape epoch to epoch. We apply our method to PSR J1103$-$5403 and demonstrate that it undergoes mode changing, making it the fourth millisecond pulsar to exhibit such behaviour. Our method, which is able to identify and time a single mode, yields a timing solution with a root-mean-square error of 1.343 $μ\mathrm{s}$, a factor of 1.78 improvement over template fitting on both modes. In addition, the white-noise amplitude is reduced 4.3 times, suggesting that fitting the full data set causes the mode changing to be incorrectly classified as white noise. This reduction in white noise boosts the signal-to-noise ratio of a gravitational-wave background signal for this particular pulsar by 32%. We discuss the possible applications for this method of timing to study pulsar magnetospheres and further improve the sensitivity of searches for nanohertz gravitational waves.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Gaussian Processes for Glitch-robust Gravitational-wave Astronomy

Interferometric gravitational-wave observatories have opened a new era in astronomy. The rich data produced by an international network enables detailed analysis of the curved space-time around black holes. With nearly one hundred signals observed so far and thousands expected in the next decade, their population properties enable insights into stellar evolution and the expansion of our Universe. However, the detectors are afflicted by transient noise artefacts known as "glitches" which contaminate the signals and bias inferences. Of the 90 signals detected to date, 18 were contaminated by glitches. This feasibility study explores a new approach to transient gravitational-wave data analysis using Gaussian processes, which model the underlying physics of the glitch-generating mechanism rather than the explicit realisation of the glitch itself. We demonstrate that if the Gaussian process kernel function can adequately model the glitch morphology, we can recover the parameters of simulated signals. Moreover, we find that the Gaussian processes kernels used in this work are well-suited to modelling long-duration glitches which are most challenging for existing glitch-mitigation approaches. Finally, we show how the time-domain nature of our approach enables a new class of time-domain tests of General Relativity, performing a re-analysis of the inspiral-merger-ringdown test on the first observed binary black hole merger. Our investigation demonstrates the feasibility of the Gaussian processes as an alternative to the traditional framework but does not yet establish them as a replacement. Therefore, we conclude with an outlook on the steps needed to realise the full potential of the Gaussian process approach.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

A follow-up on intermediate-mass black hole candidates in the second LIGO-Virgo observing run with the Bayes Coherence Ratio

The detection of an intermediate-mass black hole population ($10^2-10^6$ $M_{\odot}$) will provide clues to their formation environments (e.g., disks of active galactic nuclei, globular clusters) and illuminate a potential pathway to produce supermassive black holes. Ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are sensitive to mergers that can form intermediate-mass black holes weighing up to $\sim 450\ M_{\odot}$. However, ground-based detector data contain numerous incoherent short duration noise transients that can mimic the gravitational-wave signals from merging intermediate-mass black holes, limiting the sensitivity of searches. Here we follow-up on binary black hole merger candidates using a ranking statistic that measures the coherence or incoherence of triggers in multiple-detector data. We use this statistic to rank candidate events, initially identified by all-sky search pipelines, with lab-frame total masses $>55\ M_{\odot}$ using data from LIGO's second observing run. Our analysis does not yield evidence for new intermediate-mass black holes. However, we find support for eight stellar-mass binary black holes not reported in the first LIGO-Virgo gravitational wave transient catalog GWTC-1, seven of which have been previously reported by other catalogs.

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arXiv2022

Multi-messenger parameter inference of gravitational-wave and electromagnetic observations of white dwarf binaries

The upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect a large gravitational-wave foreground of Galactic white dwarf binaries. These sources are exceptional for their probable detection at electromagnetic wavelengths, some long before LISA flies. Studies in both gravitational and electromagnetic waves will yield strong constraints on system parameters not achievable through measurements of one messenger alone. In this work, we present a Bayesian inference pipeline and simulation suite in which we study potential constraints on binaries in a variety of configurations. We show how using LISA detections and parameter estimation can significantly improve constraints on system parameters when used as a prior for the electromagnetic analyses. We also provide rules of thumb for how current measurements will benefit from LISA measurements in the future.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Understanding binary neutron star collisions with hypermodels

Gravitational waves from the collision of binary neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study the behaviour of supranuclear matter, the fundamental properties of gravity, and the cosmic history of our Universe. However, given the complexity of Einstein's Field Equations, theoretical models that enable source-property inference suffer from systematic uncertainties due to simplifying assumptions. We develop a hypermodel approach to compare and measure the uncertainty gravitational-wave approximants. Using state-of-the-art models, we apply this new technique to the binary neutron star observations GW170817 and GW190425 and the sub-threshold candidate GW200311_103121. Our analysis reveals subtle systematic differences between waveform models, and a frequency-dependence study suggests that this is due to the treatment of the tidal sector. This new technique provides a proving ground for model development, and a means to identify waveform-systematics in future observing runs where detector improvements will increase the number and clarity of binary neutron star collisions we observe.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Does non-stationary noise in LIGO and Virgo affect the estimation of $H_0$?

Gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron star mergers and their electromagnetic counterparts provide an independent measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, through the standard-sirens approach. Current methods of determining $H_0$, such as measurements from the early universe and the local distance ladder, are in tension with one another. If gravitational waves are to break this tension a thorough understanding of systematic uncertainty for gravitational-wave observations is required. To accurately estimate the properties of gravitational-wave signals measured by LIGO and Virgo, we need to understand the characteristics of the detectors noise. Non-gaussian transients in the detector data and rapid changes in the instrument, known as non-stationary noise, can both add a systematic uncertainty to inferred results. We investigate how non-stationary noise affects the estimation of the luminosity distance of the source, and therefore of $H_0$. Using a population of 200 simulated binary neutron star signals, we show that non-stationary noise can bias the estimation of the luminosity distance by up to 2.4\%. However, only $\sim$15\% of binary neutron star signals would be affected around their merger time with non-stationary noise at a similar level to that seen in the first half of LIGO-Virgo's third observing run. Comparing the expected bias to other systematic uncertainties, we argue that non-stationary noise in the current generation of detectors will not be a limiting factor in resolving the tension on $H_0$ using standard sirens. Although, evaluating non-stationarity in gravitational-wave data will be crucial to obtain accurate estimates of $H_0$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

GWCloud: a searchable repository for the creation and curation of gravitational-wave inference results

There are at present ${\cal O}(100)$ gravitational-wave candidates from compact binary mergers reported in the astronomical literature. As detector sensitivities are improved, the catalog will swell in size: first to ${\cal O}(1000)$ events in the A+ era and then to ${\cal O}(10^6)$ events in the era of third-generation observatories like Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope. Each event is analyzed using Bayesian inference to determine properties of the source including component masses, spins, tidal parameters, and the distance to the source. These inference products are the fodder for some of the most exciting gravitational-wave science, enabling us to measure the expansion of the Universe with standard sirens, to characterise the neutron star equation of state, and to unveil how and where gravitational-wave sources are assembled. In order to maximize the science from the coming deluge of detections, we introduce GWCloud, a searchable repository for the creation and curation of gravitational-wave inference products. It is designed with five pillars in mind: uniformity of results, reproducibility of results, stability of results, access to the astronomical community, and efficient use of computing resources. We describe how to use GWCloud with examples, which readers can replicate using the companion code to this paper. We describe our long-term vision for GWCloud.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Low-efficiency long gamma-ray bursts: A case study with AT2020blt

The Zwicky Transient Facility recently announced the detection of an optical transient AT2020blt at redshift $z=2.9$, consistent with the afterglow of an on-axis gamma-ray burst. However, no prompt emission was observed. We analyse AT2020blt with detailed models, showing the data are best explained as the afterglow of an on-axis long gamma-ray burst, ruling out other hypotheses such as a cocoon and a low-Lorentz factor jet. We search \textit{Fermi} data for prompt emission, setting deeper upper limits on the prompt emission than in the original detection paper. Together with KONUS-\textit{Wind} observations, we show that the gamma-ray efficiency of AT2020blt is $\lesssim 0.3 - 4.5\%$. We speculate that AT2020blt and AT2021any belong to the low-efficiency tail of long gamma-ray burst distributions that are beginning to be readily observed due to the capabilities of new observatories like the Zwicky Transient Facility.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

An updated glitch rate law inferred from radio pulsars

Radio pulsar glitches probe far-from-equilibrium processes involving stress accumulation and relaxation in neutron star interiors. Previous studies of glitch rates have focused on individual pulsars with as many recorded glitches as possible. In this work we analyze glitch rates using all available data including objects that have glitched never or once. We assume the glitch rate follows a homogeneous Poisson process, and therefore exclude pulsars which exhibit quasiperiodic glitching behavior. Calculating relevant Bayes factors shows that a model in which the glitch rate $λ$ scales as a power of the characteristic age $τ$ is preferred over models which depend arbitrarily on powers of the spin frequency $ν$ and/or its time derivative $\dotν$. For $λ= A (τ/τ\vref)^{-γ}$, where $τ_{\rm ref}=1\ {\rm yr}$ is a reference time, the posterior distributions are unimodal with $A=\ModelAAglitch\ \rm{yr}^{-1}$, and $γ=\ModelAgammaglitch$. Importantly, the data exclude with 99\% confidence the possibility $γ=1$ canvassed in the literature. When objects with zero recorded glitches are included, the age-based rate law is still preferred and the posteriors change to give $A=\ModelAAall\ \rm{yr}^{-1}$, and $γ=\ModelAgammaall$. The updated estimates still support increased glitch activity for younger pulsars, while demonstrating that the large number of objects with zero glitches contain important statistical information about the rate, provided that they are part of the same population as opposed to a disjoint population which never glitches for some unknown physical reason.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Optimized localization for gravitational-waves from merging binaries

The Advanced LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave observatories have opened a new window with which to study the inspiral and mergers of binary compact objects. These observations are most powerful when coordinated with multi-messenger observations. This was underlined by the first observation of a binary neutron star merger GW170817, coincident with a short Gamma-ray burst, GRB170817A, and the identification of the host galaxy NGC~4993 from the optical counterpart AT~2017gfo. Finding the fast-fading optical counterpart critically depends on the rapid production of a sky-map based on LIGO/Virgo data. Currently, a rapid initial sky map is produced followed by a more accurate, high-latency, $\gtrsim{12}{\rm{hr}}$ sky map. We study optimization choices of the Bayesian prior and signal model which can be used alongside other approaches such as reduced order quadrature. We find these yield up to a $60\%$ reduction in the time required to produce the high-latency localisation for binary neutron star mergers.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Parameterised population models of transient non-Gaussian noise in the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors

The two interferometric LIGO gravitational-wave observatories provide the most sensitive data to date to study the gravitational-wave Universe. As part of a global network, they have just completed their third observing run in which they observed many tens of signals from merging compact binary systems. It has long been known that a limiting factor in identifying transient gravitational-wave signals is the presence of transient non-Gaussian noise, which reduce the ability of astrophysical searches to detect signals confidently. Significant efforts are taken to identify and mitigate this noise at the source, but its presence persists, leading to the need for software solutions. Taking a set of transient noise artefacts categorised by the GravitySpy software during the O3a observing era, we produce parameterised population models of the noise projected into the space of astrophysical model parameters of merging binary systems. We compare the inferred population properties of transient noise artefacts with observed astrophysical systems from the GWTC2.1 catalogue. We find that while the population of astrophysical systems tend to have near equal masses and moderate spins, transient noise artefacts are typically characterised by extreme mass ratios and large spins. This work provides a new method to calculate the consistency of an observed candidate with a given class of noise artefacts. This approach could be used in assessing the consistency of candidates found by astrophysical searches (i.e. determining if they are consistent with a known glitch class). Furthermore, the approach could be incorporated into astrophysical searches directly, potentially improving the reach of the detectors, though only a detailed study would verify this.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Bilby-MCMC: An MCMC sampler for gravitational-wave inference

We introduce Bilby-MCMC, a Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo sampling algorithm tuned for the analysis of gravitational waves from merging compact objects. Bilby-MCMC provides a parallel-tempered ensemble Metropolis-Hastings sampler with access to a block-updating proposal library including problem-specific and machine learning proposals. We demonstrate that learning proposals can produce over a 10-fold improvement in efficiency by reducing the autocorrelation time. Using a variety of standard and problem-specific tests, we validate the ability of the Bilby-MCMC sampler to produce independent posterior samples and estimate the Bayesian evidence. Compared to the widely-used dynesty nested sampling algorithm, Bilby-MCMC is less efficient in producing independent posterior samples and less accurate in its estimation of the evidence. However, we find that posterior samples drawn from the Bilby-MCMC sampler are more robust: never failing to pass our validation tests. Meanwhile, the dynesty sampler fails the difficult-to-sample Rosenbrock likelihood test, over constraining the posterior. For CBC problems, this highlights the importance of cross-sampler comparisons to ensure results are robust to sampling error. Finally, Bilby-MCMC can be embarrassingly and asynchronously parallelised making it highly suitable for reducing the analysis wall-time using a High Throughput Computing environment. Bilby-MCMC may be a useful tool for the rapid and robust analysis of gravitational-wave signals during the advanced detector era and we expect it to have utility throughout astrophysics.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

CDF-S XT1: The off-axis afterglow of a neutron star merger at $z=2.23$

CDF-S XT1 is a fast-rising non-thermal X-ray transient detected by \textit{Chandra} in the Deep-Field South Survey. Although various hypotheses have been suggested, the origin of this transient remains unclear. Here, we show that the observations of CDF-S XT1 are well explained as the X-ray afterglow produced by a relativistic structured jet viewed off-axis. We measure properties of the jet, showing that they are similar to those of GRB170817A, albeit at cosmological distances. We measure the observers viewing angle to be $θ_{\textrm{obs}} = 10^{\circ}\pm3^{\circ}$ and the core of the ultra-relativistic jet to be $θ_{\textrm{core}} = 4.4^{\circ}\pm0.9^{\circ}$, where the uncertainties are the $68\%$ credible interval. The inferred properties and host galaxy combined with Hubble, radio, and optical non detections favour the hypothesis that CDF-S XT1 is the off-axis afterglow of a binary neutron star merger. We find that other previously suggested hypotheses are unable to explain all properties of CDF-S XT1. At a redshift of $z=2.23$, this is potentially the most distant observed neutron star merger to date and the first orphan afterglow of a short gamma-ray burst. We discuss the implications of a binary neutron star merger at such a high redshift for the star-formation rate in the early Universe, the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements, and the prospect of identifying other off-axis afterglows.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

PyFstat: a Python package for continuous gravitational-wave data analysis

Gravitational waves in the sensitivity band of ground-based detectors can be emitted by a number of astrophysical sources, including not only binary coalescences, but also individual spinning neutron stars. The most promising signals from such sources, although not yet detected, are long-lasting, quasi-monochromatic Continuous Waves (CWs). The PyFstat package provides tools to perform a range of CW data-analysis tasks. It revolves around the F-statistic, a matched-filter detection statistic for CW signals that has been one of the standard methods for LIGO-Virgo CW searches for two decades. PyFstat is built on top of established routines in LALSuite but through its more modern Python interface it enables a flexible approach to designing new search strategies. Hence, it serves a dual function of (i) making LALSuite CW functionality more easily accessible through a Python interface, thus facilitating the new user experience and, for developers, the exploratory implementation of novel methods; and (ii) providing a set of production-ready search classes for use cases not yet covered by LALSuite itself, most notably for MCMC-based followup of promising candidates from wide-parameter-space searches.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

Interpreting the X-ray afterglows of gamma-ray bursts with radiative losses and millisecond magnetars

The spin-down energy of millisecond magnetars has been invoked to explain X-ray afterglow observations of a significant fraction of short and long gamma-ray bursts. Here, we extend models previously introduced in the literature, incorporating radiative losses with the spin down of a magnetar central engine through an arbitrary braking index. Combining this with a model for the tail of the prompt emission, we show that our model can better explain the data than millisecond-magnetar models without radiative losses or those that invoke spin down solely through vacuum dipole radiation. We find that our model predicts a subset of X-ray flares seen in some gamma-ray bursts. We can further explain the diversity of X-ray plateaus by altering the radiative efficiency and measure the braking index of newly-born millisecond magnetars. We measure the braking index of GRB061121 as $n=4.85^{+0.11}_{-0.15}$ suggesting the millisecond-magnetar born in this gamma-ray burst spins down predominantly through gravitational-wave emission.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Standard-siren cosmology using gravitational waves from binary black holes

Gravitational-wave astronomy provides a unique new way to study the expansion history of the Universe. In this work, we investigate the impact future gravitational-wave observatories will have on cosmology. Third-generation observatories like the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will be sensitive to essentially all of the binary black hole coalescence events in the Universe. Recent work by \cite{farr2019future} points out that features in the stellar-mass black hole population break the mass-redshift degeneracy, facilitating precise determination of the Hubble parameter without electromagnetic counterparts or host galaxy catalogues. Using a hierarchical Bayesian inference model, we show that with one year of observations by the Einstein Telescope, the Hubble constant will be measured to $\lesssim 1\%$. We also show that this method can be used to perform Bayesian model selection between cosmological models. As an illustrative example, we find that a decisive statement can be made comparing the $Λ$CDM and RHCT cosmological models using two weeks of data from the Einstein Telescope.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Flickering of the Vela pulsar during its 2016 glitch

The first pulse-to-pulse observations of a neutron star glitch in the Vela pulsar identified a null pulse hinting at the sudden disruption of the neutron star's magnetosphere. The only physical model connecting the glitch and the null pulse relies on a starquake either triggering, or being triggered by, the glitch itself. Until now, this was the only null pulse identified from over 50 years of observing the Vela pulsar. We identify five other null-like pulses, that we term quasi-nulls, before and after the glitch, separated by hundreds of seconds. We verify that such nulls are not found in data away from the glitch. We speculate that the quasi-nulls are associated with foreshocks and aftershocks preceding and following the main quake, analogously with terrestrial quakes. This implies the energy reservoir built up between glitches is not released suddenly, but over a period of minutes to hours around the time of the glitch.

astro-ph.HE↗