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Gregory Cox

Publications and source records attributed to Gregory Cox.

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Exploring the Stratified Space Structure of an RL Game with the Volume Growth Transform

In this work, we explore the structure of the embedding space of a transformer model trained for playing a particular reinforcement learning (RL) game. Specifically, we investigate how a transformer-based Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) model embeds visual inputs in a simple environment where an agent must collect "coins" while avoiding dynamic obstacles consisting of "spotlights." By adapting Robinson et al.'s study of the volume growth transform for LLMs to the RL setting, we find that the token embedding space for our visual coin collecting game is also not a manifold, and is better modeled as a stratified space, where local dimension can vary from point to point. We further strengthen Robinson's method by proving that fairly general volume growth curves can be realized by stratified spaces. Finally, we carry out an analysis that suggests that as an RL agent acts, its latent representation alternates between periods of low local dimension, while following a fixed sub-strategy, and bursts of high local dimension, where the agent achieves a sub-goal (e.g., collecting an object) or where the environmental complexity increases (e.g., more obstacles appear). Consequently, our work suggests that the distribution of dimensions in a stratified latent space may provide a new geometric indicator of complexity for RL games.

math.AT

Weak Identification in Low-Dimensional Factor Models with One or Two Factors

This paper describes how to reparameterize low-dimensional factor models with one or two factors to fit weak identification theory developed for generalized method of moments models. Some identification-robust tests, here called "plug-in" tests, require a reparameterization to distinguish weakly identified parameters from strongly identified parameters. The reparameterizations in this paper make plug-in tests available for subvector hypotheses in low-dimensional factor models with one or two factors. Simulations show that the plug-in tests are less conservative than identification-robust tests that use the original parameterization. An empirical application to a factor model of parental investments in children is included.

econ.EM

A Generalized Argmax Theorem with Applications

The argmax theorem is a useful result for deriving the limiting distribution of estimators in many applications. The conclusion of the argmax theorem states that the argmax of a sequence of stochastic processes converges in distribution to the argmax of a limiting stochastic process. This paper generalizes the argmax theorem to allow the maximization to take place over a sequence of subsets of the domain. If the sequence of subsets converges to a limiting subset, then the conclusion of the argmax theorem continues to hold. We demonstrate the usefulness of this generalization in three applications: estimating a structural break, estimating a parameter on the boundary of the parameter space, and estimating a weakly identified parameter. The generalized argmax theorem simplifies the proofs for existing results and can be used to prove new results in these literatures.

econ.EM

Simple Adaptive Size-Exact Testing for Full-Vector and Subvector Inference in Moment Inequality Models

We propose a simple test for moment inequalities that has exact size in normal models with known variance and has uniformly asymptotically exact size more generally. The test compares the quasi-likelihood ratio statistic to a chi-squared critical value, where the degree of freedom is the rank of the inequalities that are active in finite samples. The test requires no simulation and thus is computationally fast and especially suitable for constructing confidence sets for parameters by test inversion. It uses no tuning parameter for moment selection and yet still adapts to the slackness of the moment inequalities. Furthermore, we show how the test can be easily adapted for inference on subvectors for the common empirical setting of conditional moment inequalities with nuisance parameters entering linearly.

econ.EM

Almost Sure Uniqueness of a Global Minimum Without Convexity

This paper establishes the argmin of a random objective function to be unique almost surely. This paper first formulates a general result that proves almost sure uniqueness without convexity of the objective function. The general result is then applied to a variety of applications in statistics. Four applications are discussed, including uniqueness of M-estimators, both classical likelihood and penalized likelihood estimators, and two applications of the argmin theorem, threshold regression and weak identification.

econ.EM