arXiv subjects

Griffin T. Goodwin

Publications and source records attributed to Griffin T. Goodwin.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Improving Solar Flare Soft X-ray Classification With FOXES: A Framework For Operational X-ray Emission Synthesis

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) solar soft X-ray (SXR) irradiance in the 1-8Å wavelength range is a long-standing measure of solar activity, used to define the classification of flare strengths. As a result, the flare class, along with the SXR light curves, are routinely used as a primary input for forecasting properties of space weather drivers, from coronal mass ejection speed to energetic particle output. However, the GOES SXR irradiance lacks spatial information, leading to known classification errors, such as misattributed flare locations during periods of high activity. Moreover, GOES only provides observations from Earth's orbit, hindering forecasting for other places in the heliosphere. Motivated by these limitations, we introduce the Framework for Operational X-ray Emission Synthesis (FOXES), a Vision Transformer-based approach for translating Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spatially-resolved observations into SXR irradiance predictions. The model produces two outputs: (1) a global 1-8Å SXR flux prediction and (2) per-patch flux contributions, which offer a spatially-resolved interpretation of where the model attributes SXR emission. Trained, validated, and tested on over 3200 hours of observations, FOXES has demonstrated a translational mean absolute error of 0.051 dex for integrated SXR measurements. FOXES has also shown promise in dissecting the solar background SXR flux during flaring and non-flaring events. Overall, this model paves the way for EUV-based spatially-resolved flare detection to be extended beyond Earth's line of sight. Such capabilities could lead to a more comprehensive flare catalog and enable a true multiviewpoint monitoring of solar activity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

FOXES: A Framework For Operational X-ray Emission Synthesis

Understanding solar flares is critical for predicting space weather, as their activity shapes how the Sun influences Earth and its environment. The development of reliable forecasting methodologies of these events depends on robust flare catalogs, but current methods are limited to flare classification using integrated soft X-ray emission that are available only from Earth's perspective. This reduces accuracy in pinpointing the location and strength of farside flares and their connection to geoeffective events. In this work, we introduce a Vision Transformer (ViT)-based approach that translates Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) observations into soft x-ray flux while also setting the groundwork for estimating flare locations in the future. The model achieves accurate flux predictions across flare classes using quantitative metrics. This paves the way for EUV-based flare detection to be extended beyond Earth's line of sight, which allows for a more comprehensive and complete solar flare catalog.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

The Impacts of Magnetogram Projection Effects on Solar Flare Forecasting

This work explores the impacts of magnetogram projection effects on machine learning-based solar flare forecasting models. Utilizing a methodology proposed by Falconer et al. (2016), we correct for projection effects present in Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) benchmark data set. We then train and run a support vector machine classifier on the corrected and uncorrected data, comparing differences in performance. Additionally, we provide insight into several other methodologies that mitigate projection effects, such as stacking ensemble classifiers and active region location-informed models. Our analysis shows that data corrections slightly increase both the true positive (correctly predicted flaring samples) and false positive (non-flaring samples predicted as flaring) prediction rates, averaging a few percent. Similarly, changes in performance metrics are minimal for the stacking ensemble and location-based model. This suggests that a more complicated correction methodology may be needed to see improvements. It may also indicate inherent limitations when using magnetogram data for flare forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Investigating Performance Trends of Simulated Real-time Solar Flare Predictions: The Impacts of Training Windows, Data Volumes, and the Solar Cycle

This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al. 2020a,b), we examine the impacts of training methodology and the solar cycle on decision tree, support vector machine, and multilayer perceptron performance. We implement our classifiers using three temporal training windows: stationary, rolling, and expanding. The stationary window trains models using a single set of data available before the first forecasting instance, which remains constant throughout the solar cycle. The rolling window trains models using data from a constant time interval before the forecasting instance, which moves with the solar cycle. Finally, the expanding window trains models using all available data before the forecasting instance. For each window, a number of input features (1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 120) and temporal sizes (5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20 months) were tested. To our surprise, we found that for a 20-month window, skill scores were comparable regardless of the window type, feature count, and classifier selected. Furthermore, reducing the size of this window only marginally decreased stationary and rolling window performance. This implies that, given enough data, a stationary window can be chosen over other window types, eliminating the need for model retraining. Lastly, a moderately strong positive correlation was found to exist between a model's false positive rate and the solar X-ray background flux. This suggests that the solar cycle phase has a considerable influence on forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗