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Grigori Fedorets

Publications and source records attributed to Grigori Fedorets.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Multi-Wavelength Post-Perihelion Polarimetry of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS

We present new post-perihelion polarimetric observations of the third discovered interstellar object, 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1; hereafter 3I), obtained using FORS2 at the Very Large Telescope, ALFOSC at the Nordic Optical Telescope, and FoReRo2 at the 2 m Ritchey-Chrétien-Coudé telescope. The observations span phase angles 1-30$^{\circ}$, providing the most extensive polarimetric phase angle coverage obtained for an interstellar object to date. The post-perihelion measurements reveal that the unusual polarimetric properties of 3I persist across perihelion and match recent independent post-perihelion observations, indicating no significant evolution in the polarimetric properties. The increased phase angle coverage allowed us to further constrain the minimum polarisation to $-2.9\%$ at phase angle $5.5^{\circ}$. Multi-band BVRI observations reveal a wavelength dependence of polarisation, with the negative polarisation branch becoming deeper and shifted toward smaller phase angles at longer wavelengths. The polarimetric colour is predominantly red and increases with phase angle, consistent with behaviour observed in other comets. Imaging and polarimetric maps show a substantially more extended coma after perihelion, while the polarisation distribution itself remains smooth and spatially homogeneous. Numerical modelling suggests that the unusually deep polarisation phase curve originates from moderately porous dust aggregates consisting of weakly absorbing sub-micron monomers, resulting in much brighter dust than that in typical solar system comets.

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Astrometric follow-up of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 during a Torino scale level 3 alert

The discovery of 2024 YR4 presented the planetary defense community with the most significant impact threat in almost two decades, reaching level 3 on the Torino scale. The community, now mature and well-organized, responded with a global observational effort. Astrometric measurements, forming the basis for orbital refinement and impact prediction, were a central component of this response. In this paper, we present the astrometric data collected by the international community, from the time of discovery until the object became too faint for all existing observational assets, including JWST. We also discuss the coordination role played by the International Asteroid Warning Network, and the importance of publicly available image archives to enable precovery searches.

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Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Neptune Trojans

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), beginning full operations in late 2025, will dramatically transform solar system science by vastly expanding discoveries and providing detailed characterization opportunities across all small body populations. This includes the co-orbiting 1:1 resonant Neptune Trojans, which are thought to be dynamically hot captures from the protoplanetary disk. Using the survey simulator $\texttt{Sorcha}$, combined with the latest LSST cadence simulations, we present the very first predictions for the Neptune Trojan yield within the LSST. We forecast a model-dependent median number of $\sim130-300$ discovered Neptune Trojans, and infer a notable 2:1 detection bias toward the recently emerged L5 cloud near the galactic plane versus the L4 cloud, reflecting the lower-cadence coverage in the Northern Ecliptic Spur region that suppresses L4 detections. The additionally simulated Science Validation survey will offer the very first early insights into this understudied cloud. Around 60\% of detected main survey Neptune Trojans will meet stringent color light curve quality criteria, increasing the sample size more than fourfold compared to existing datasets. This enhanced sample will enable robust statistical analyses of Neptune Trojan color and size distributions, crucial for understanding their origins and relationship to the broader trans-Neptunian population. These comprehensive color measurements represent a major step forward in characterizing the Neptune Trojan population and will facilitate future targeted spectroscopic observations.

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Rapid-response characterization of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 during a Torino Scale 3 alert

On 27 December 2024, near-Earth object (NEO) 2024 YR$_4$ was discovered by the ATLAS survey and identified as a virtual impactor. A few weeks later, it eventually reached level 3 on the Torino Scale and was the first and only asteroid to be ever classified at that level. Here we report an intensive observational campaign combining time-series photometry in the visible, broadband visible and near-infrared colors, and low-resolution visible reflectance spectroscopy to assess its physical properties. Fourier analysis of the lightcurves yields a synodic rotation period of $P = 19.46341 \pm 0.00008$ min, placing 2024 YR$_4$ among the fast rotators, even if such rotation is common for objects of similar $H$ magnitude. Its visible and near-infrared colors and spectra are most consistent with an Sq or K taxonomic classification, though some ambiguity remains. Finally, its phase curve exhibits a notably shallow slope ($G = 0.51 \pm 0.11$), from which we derive an absolute magnitude of $H_\mathrm{R} = 23.82\pm0.09$ mag. After color correction and taking into account other models for the phase function, we report an absolute magnitude of $H_\mathrm{V} = 24.14\pm0.25$ mag. These characterizations, rotation period, taxonomy, and surface properties, would have been crucial for risk assessment and mitigation planning had the initially high impact probability scenario been confirmed, underscoring the importance for planetary defense of a rapid, coordinated international response.

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Extreme Negative Polarisation of New Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS

We present the first polarimetric observations of the third discovered interstellar object, 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1), obtained pre-perihelion with FORS2/VLT, ALFOSC/NOT, and FoReRo2/RCC, over a phase angle range of 7.7-22.4°. This marks the second ever polarimetric study of an interstellar object, the first distinguishing 2I/Borisov from most Solar System comets by its higher positive polarisation. Our polarimetric measurements as a function of phase angle reveal that 3I is characterised by an deep and narrow negative polarisation branch, reaching a minimum value of -2.7% at phase angle 7°, and an inversion angle of 17° -- a combination unprecedented among asteroids and comets, including 2I/Borisov. At very small phase angles, the extrapolated slope of the polarisation phase curve is consistent with that of certain small trans-Neptunian objects and Centaur Pholus, consistent with independent spectroscopic evidence for a red, possibly water-ice-bearing object. Imaging confirms a diffuse coma present from our earliest observations, though no strong polarimetric features are spatial resolved. These findings may demonstrate that 3I represents a distinct type of comet, expanding the diversity of known interstellar bodies.

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Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a new 8m-class survey facility presently being commissioned in Chile, expected to begin the 10yr-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the end of 2025. Using the purpose-built Sorcha survey simulator (Merritt et al. In Press), and near-final observing cadence, we perform the first high-fidelity simulation of LSST's solar system catalog for key small body populations. We show that the final LSST catalog will deliver over 1.1 billion observations of small bodies and raise the number of known objects to 1.27E5 near-Earth objects, 5.09E6 main belt asteroids, 1.09E5 Jupiter Trojans, and 3.70E4 trans-Neptunian objects. These represent 4-9x more objects than are presently known in each class, making LSST the largest source of data for small body science in this and the following decade. We characterize the measurements available for these populations, including orbits, griz colors, and lightcurves, and point out science opportunities they open. Importantly, we show that ~70% of the main asteroid belt and more distant populations will be discovered in the first two years of the survey, making high-impact solar system science possible from very early on. We make our simulated LSST catalog publicly available, allowing researchers to test their methods on an up-to-date, representative, full-scale simulation of LSST data.

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Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Discovery Rates and Characterizations of Centaurs

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start by the end of 2025 and operate for ten years, offering billions of observations of the southern night sky. One of its main science goals is to create an inventory of the Solar System, allowing for a more detailed understanding of small body populations including the Centaurs, which will benefit from the survey's high cadence and depth. In this paper, we establish the first discovery limits for Centaurs throughout the LSST's decade-long operation using the best available dynamical models. Using the survey simulator $\texttt{Sorcha}$, we predict a $\sim$7-12 fold increase in Centaurs in the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database, reaching $\sim$1200-2000 (dependent on definition) by the end of the survey - about 50$\%$ of which are expected within the first 2 years. Approximately 30-50 Centaurs will be observed twice as frequently as they fall within one of the LSST's Deep Drilling Fields (DDF) for on average only up to two months. Outside of the DDFs, Centaurs will receive $\sim$200 observations across the $\textit{ugrizy}$ filter range, facilitating searches for cometary-like activity through PSF extension analysis, as well as fitting light-curves and phase curves for color determination. Regardless of definition, over 200 Centaurs will achieve high-quality color measurements across at least three filters in the LSST's six filters. These observations will also provide over 300 well-defined phase curves in the $\textit{griz}$ bands, improving absolute magnitude measurements to a precision of 0.2 mags.

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Sorcha: A Solar System Survey Simulator for the Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to revolutionize solar system astronomy. Unprecedented in scale, this ten-year wide-field survey will collect billions of observations and discover a predicted $\sim$5 million new solar system objects. Like all astronomical surveys, its results will be affected by a complex system of intertwined detection biases. Survey simulators have long been used to forward-model the effects of these biases on a given population, allowing for a direct comparison to real discoveries. However, the scale and tremendous scope of the LSST requires the development of new tools. In this paper we present Sorcha, an open-source survey simulator written in Python. Designed with the scale of LSST in mind, Sorcha is a comprehensive survey simulator to cover all solar system small-body populations. Its flexible, modular design allows Sorcha to be easily adapted to other surveys by the user. The simulator is built to run both locally and on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters, allowing for repeated simulation of millions to billions of objects (both real and synthetic).

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Sorcha: Optimized Solar System Ephemeris Generation

Sorcha is a solar system survey simulator built for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and future large-scale wide-field surveys. Over the ten-year survey, the LSST is expected to collect roughly a billion observations of minor planets. The task of a solar system survey simulator is to take a set of input objects (described by orbits and physical properties) and determine what a real or hypothetical survey would have discovered. Existing survey simulators have a computational bottleneck in determining which input objects lie in each survey field, making them infeasible for LSST data scales. Sorcha can swiftly, efficiently, and accurately calculate the on-sky positions for sets of millions of input orbits and surveys with millions of visits, identifying which exposures these objects cross, in order for later stages of the software to make detailed estimates of the apparent magnitude and detectability of those input small bodies. In this paper, we provide the full details of the algorithm and software behind Sorcha's ephemeris generator. Like many of Sorcha's components, its ephemeris generator can be easily used for other surveys.

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Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science: Incremental Templates in Year 1

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is due to commence the 10-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the end of 2025. To detect transient/variable sources and identify solar system objects (SSOs), the processing pipelines require templates of the static sky to perform difference imaging. During the first year of the LSST, templates must be generated as the survey progresses, otherwise SSOs cannot be discovered nightly. The incremental template generation strategy has not been finalized; therefore, we use the Metric Analysis Framework (MAF) and a simulation of the survey cadence (one_snap_v4.0_10yrs}) to explore template generation in Year 1. We have assessed the effects of generating templates over timescales of days-weeks, when at least four images of sufficient quality are available for $\geq90\%$ of the visit. We predict that SSO discoveries will begin $\sim$2-3 months after the start of the survey. We find that the ability of the LSST to discover SSOs in real-time is reduced in Year 1. This is especially true for detections in areas of the sky that receive fewer visits, such as the North Ecliptic Spur (NES), and in less commonly used filters, such as the $u$ and $g$-bands. The lack of templates in the NES dominates the loss of real-time SSO discoveries; across the whole sky the MAF Main-Belt asteroid (MBA) discovery metric decreases by up to $63\%$ compared to the baseline observing strategy, whereas the metric decreases by up to $79\%$ for MBAs in the NES alone.

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The Discovery and Evolution of a Possible New Epoch of Cometary Activity by the Centaur (2060) Chiron

Centaurs are small Solar System objects on chaotic orbits in the giant planet region, forming an evolutionary continuum with the Kuiper belt objects and Jupiter-family comets. Some Centaurs are known to exhibit cometary activity, though unlike comets this activity tends not to correlate with heliocentric distance and the mechanism behind it is currently poorly understood. We utilize serendipitous observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS), Dark Energy Survey (DES), and Gaia in addition to targeted follow-up observations from the Las Cumbres Observatory, TRAnsiting Planets and PlanetesImals Small Telescope South (TRAPPIST-South), and Gemini North telescope to analyze an unexpected brightening exhibited by the known active Centaur (2060) Chiron in 2021. This is highly indicative of a cometary outburst. As of 2023 February, Chiron has still not returned to its pre-brightening magnitude. We find Chiron's rotational lightcurve, phase curve effects, and possible high-albedo surface features to be unlikely causes of this observed brightening. We consider the most likely cause to be an epoch of either new or increased cometary activity, though we cannot rule out a possible contribution from Chiron's reported ring system, such as a collision of as-yet unseen satellites shepherding the rings. We find no evidence for coma in our Gemini or TRAPPIST-South observations, though this does not preclude the possibility that Chiron is exhibiting a coma that is too faint for observation or constrained to the immediate vicinity of the nucleus.

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Implications for the Formation of 2005 UD from a New Convex Shape Model

(155140) 2005 UD has a similar orbit to (3200) Phaethon, an active asteroid in a highly eccentric orbit thought to be the source of the Geminid meteor shower. Evidence points to a genetic relationship between these two objects, but we have yet to fully understand how 2005 UD and Phaethon could have separated into this associated pair. Presented herein are new observations of 2005 UD from five observatories that were carried out during the 2018, 2019, and 2021 apparitions. We implemented light curve inversion using our new data, as well as dense and sparse archival data from epochs in 2005--2021 to better constrain the rotational period and derive a convex shape model of 2005 UD. We discuss two equally well-fitting pole solutions ($λ= 116.6^{\circ}$, $β= -53.6^{\circ}$) and ($λ= 300.3^{\circ}$, $β= -55.4^{\circ}$), the former largely in agreement with previous thermophysical analyses and the latter interesting due to its proximity to Phaethon's pole orientation. We also present a refined sidereal period of $P_{\text{sid}} = 5.234246 \pm 0.000097$ hr. A search for surface color heterogeneity showed no significant rotational variation. An activity search using the deepest stacked image available of 2005 UD near aphelion did not reveal a coma or tail but allowed modeling of an upper limit of 0.04 to 0.37~kg s$^{-1}$ for dust production. We then leveraged our spin solutions to help limit the range of formation scenarios and the link to Phaethon in the context of nongravitational forces and timescales associated with the physical evolution of the system.

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Polarimetric Properties of the Near--Sun Asteroid (155140) 2005 UD in Comparison with Other Asteroids and Meteoritic Samples

The investigation of asteroids near the Sun is important for understanding the final evolutionary stage of primitive solar system objects. A near-Sun asteroid, (155140) 2005 UD, has orbital elements similar to those of (3200) Phaethon (the target asteroid for the JAXA's $DESTINY^+$ mission). We conducted photometric and polarimetric observations of 2005 UD and found that this asteroid exhibits a polarization phase curve similar to that of Phaethon over a wide range of observed solar phase angles ($ α= 20 - 105^\circ $) but different from those of (101955) Bennu and (162173) Ryugu (asteroids composed of hydrated carbonaceous materials). At a low phase angle ($α\lesssim 30^\circ$), the polarimetric properties of these near-Sun asteroids (2005 UD and Phaethon) are consistent with anhydrous carbonaceous chondrites, while the properties of Bennu are consistent with hydrous carbonaceous chondrites. We derived the geometric albedo, $ p_\mathrm{V} \sim 0.1 $ (in the range of 0.088-0.109); mean $ V $-band absolute magnitude, $ H_\mathrm{V} = 17.54 \pm 0.02 $; synodic rotational period, $ T_\mathrm{rot} = 5.2388 \pm 0.0022 $ hours (the two-peaked solution is assumed); and effective mean diameter, $ D_\mathrm{eff} = 1.32 \pm 0.06 $ km. At large phase angles ($ α\gtrsim 80^\circ$), the polarization phase curve are likely explained by the dominance of large grains and the paucity of small micron-sized grains. We conclude that the polarimetric similarity of these near-Sun asteroids can be attributed to the intense solar heating of carbonaceous materials around their perihelia, where large anhydrous particles with small porosity could be produced by sintering.

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Establishing Earth's Minimoon Population through Characterization of Asteroid 2020 CD$_3$

We report on our detailed characterization of Earth's second known temporary natural satellite, or minimoon, asteroid 2020 CD3. An artificial origin can be ruled out based on its area-to-mass ratio and broadband photometry, which suggest that it is a silicate asteroid belonging to the S or V complex in asteroid taxonomy. The discovery of 2020 CD3 allows for the first time a comparison between known minimoons and theoretical models of their expected physical and dynamical properties. The estimated diameter of 1.2+0.4-0.2 m and geocentric capture approximately a decade after the first known minimoon, 2006 RH120, are in agreement with theoretical predictions. The capture duration of 2020 CD3 of at least 2.7 yr is unexpectedly long compared to the simulation average, but it is in agreement with simulated minimoons that have close lunar encounters, providing additional support for the orbital models. 2020 CD3's atypical rotation period, significantly longer than theoretical predictions, suggests that our understanding of meter-scale asteroids needs revision. More discoveries and a detailed characterization of the population can be expected with the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

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Discovering Earth's transient moons with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

Earth's temporarily-captured orbiters (TCOs) are a sub-population of near-Earth objects (NEOs). TCOs can provide constraints for NEO population models in the 1--10-metre-diameter range, and they are outstanding targets for in situ exploration of asteroids due to a low requirement on $Δv$. So far there has only been a single serendipitous discovery of a TCO. Here we assess in detail the possibility of their discovery with the upcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), previously identified as the primary facility for such discoveries. We simulated observations of TCOs by combining a synthetic TCO population with an LSST survey simulation. We then assessed the detection rates, detection linking and orbit computation, and sources for confusion. Typical velocities of detectable TCOs will range from 1$^{\circ}$/day to 50$^{\circ}$/day, and typical apparent $V$ magnitudes from 21 to 23. Potentially-hazardous asteroids have observational characteristics similar to TCOs, but the two populations can be distinguished based on their orbits with LSST data alone. We predict that a TCO can be discovered once every year with the baseline moving-object processing system (MOPS). The rate can be increased to one TCO discovery every two months if tools complementary to the baseline MOPS are developed for the specific purpose of discovering these objects.

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Earth's Minimoons: Opportunities for Science and Technology

(modified from published version) Twelve years ago the Catalina Sky Survey discovered Earth's first known natural geocentric object other than the Moon, a few-meter diameter asteroid designated 2006 RH120. Despite significant improvements in ground-based telescope and detector technology in the past decade the asteroid surveys have not discovered another temporarily-captured orbiter (TCO; colloquially known as minimoons). Within a few years the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will either begin to regularly detect TCOs or force a re-analysis of the creation and dynamical evolution of small asteroids in the inner solar system. The first studies of the provenance, properties, and dynamics of Earth's minimoons suggested that there should be a steady state population with about one 1- to 2-meter diameter captured objects at any time. That model was then improved and extended to include the population of temporarily-captured flybys (TCFs), objects that fail to make an entire revolution around Earth while energetically bound to the Earth-Moon system. Several different techniques for discovering TCOs have been considered but their small diameters, proximity, and rapid motion make them challenging targets for existing ground-based optical, meteor, and radar surveys. We expect that if the TCO population is confirmed, and new objects are frequently discovered, they can provide new opportunities for 1) studying the dynamics of the Earth-Moon system, 2) testing models of the production and dynamical evolution of small asteroids from the asteroid belt, 3) rapid and frequent low delta-v missions to multiple minimoons, and 4) evaluating in-situ resource utilization techniques on asteroidal material. Here we review the past decade of minimoon studies in preparation for capitalizing on the scientific and commercial opportunities of TCOs in the first decade of LSST operations.

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The daily processing of asteroid observations by Gaia

The Gaia mission started its regular observing program in the summer of 2014, and since then it is regularly obtaining observations of asteroids. This paper draws the outline of the data processing for Solar System objects, and in particular on the daily "short-term" processing, from the on-board data acquisition to the ground-based processing. We illustrate the tools developed to compute predictions of asteroid observations, we discuss the procedures implemented by the daily processing, and we illustrate some tests and validations of the processing of the asteroid observations. Our findings are overall consistent with the expectations concerning the performances of Gaia and the effectiveness of the developed software for data reduction.

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