arXiv subjects

Grigorios A. Pavliotis

Publications and source records attributed to Grigorios A. Pavliotis.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Phase transitions for interacting particle systems on random graphs

In this paper, we study weakly interacting diffusion processes on random graphs. Our main focus is on the properties of the mean-field limit and, in particular, on the nonuniqueness and bifurcation structure of stationary states. By extending classical bifurcation analysis to include multichromatic interaction potentials and random graph structures, we explicitly identify bifurcation points and relate them to the spectral properties of the graphon integral operator. In addition, we develop a self-consistency formulation of stationary states that recovers the primary critical threshold and reveals secondary bifurcations along non-uniform branches. Furthermore, we characterize the resulting McKean-Vlasov PDE as a gradient flow with respect to a suitable metric. In addition, we provide strong evidence that (minus) the interaction energy of the interacting particle system serves as a natural order parameter. In particular, beyond the transition point and for multichromatic interactions, we observe an energy cascade that is strongly linked to dynamical metastability.

math.DS↗

arXiv2025

A Fourier-based inference method for learning interaction kernels in particle systems

We consider the problem of inferring the interaction kernel of stochastic interacting particle systems from observations of a single particle. We adopt a semi-parametric approach and represent the interaction kernel in terms of a generalized Fourier series. The basis functions in this expansion are tailored to the problem at hand and are chosen to be orthogonal polynomials with respect to the invariant measure of the mean-field dynamics. The generalized Fourier coefficients are obtained as the solution of an appropriate linear system whose coefficients depend on the moments of the invariant measure, and which are approximated from the particle trajectory that we observe. We quantify the approximation error in the Lebesgue space weighted by the invariant measure and study the asymptotic properties of the estimator in the joint limit as the observation interval and the number of particles tend to infinity, i.e. the joint large time-mean field limit. We also explore the regime where an increasing number of generalized Fourier coefficients is needed to represent the interaction kernel. Our theoretical results are supported by extensive numerical simulations.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Linearization of ergodic McKean SDEs and applications

In this article, we consider McKean stochastic differential equations, as well as their corresponding McKean-Vlasov partial differential equations, which admit a unique stationary state, and we study the linearized Itô diffusion process that is obtained by replacing the law of the process in the convolution term with the unique invariant measure. We show that the law of the nonlinear McKean process converges to the law of this linearized process exponentially fast in time, both in relative entropy and in Wasserstein distance. We study the problem in both the whole space and the torus. We then show how we can employ the resulting linear (in the sense of McKean) Markov process to analyze properties of the original nonlinear and nonlocal dynamics that depend on their long-time behavior. In particular, we propose a linearized maximum likelihood estimator for the nonlinear process which is asymptotically unbiased, and we study the joint diffusive-mean field limit of the underlying interacting particle system.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

A Minimum Distance Estimator Approach for Misspecified Ergodic Processes

We propose a minimum distance estimator (MDE) for parameter identification in misspecified models characterized by a sequence of ergodic stochastic processes that converge weakly to the model of interest. The data is generated by the sequence of processes, and we are interested in inferring parameters for the limiting processes. We define a general statistical setting for parameter estimation under such model misspecification and prove the robustness of the MDE. Furthermore, we prove the asymptotic normality of the MDE for multiscale diffusion processes with a well-defined homogenized limit. A tractable numerical implementation of the MDE is provided and realized in the programming language Julia.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

A Spectral Approach to Optimal Control of the Fokker-Planck Equation

In this paper, we present a spectral optimal control framework for Fokker-Planck equations based on the standard ground state transformation that maps the Fokker-Planck operator to a Schrodinger operator. Our primary objective is to accelerate convergence toward the (unique) steady state. To fulfill this objective, a gradient-based iterative algorithm with Pontryagin's maximum principle and the Barzilai-Borwein update is developed to compute time-dependent controls. Numerical experiments on two-dimensional ill-conditioned normal distributions and double-well potentials demonstrate that our approach effectively targets slow-decaying modes, thus increasing the spectral gap.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Stability of stationary states for mean field models with multichromatic interaction potentials

We consider weakly interacting diffusions on the torus, for multichromatic interaction potentials. We consider interaction potentials that are not H-stable, leading to phase transitions in the mean field limit. We show that the mean field dynamics can exhibit multipeak stationary states, where the number of peaks is related to the number of nonzero Fourier modes of the interaction. We also consider the effect of a confining potential on the structure of non-uniform steady states. We approach the problem by means of analysis, perturbation theory and numerical simulations for the interacting particle systems and the PDEs.

math-ph↗

arXiv2025

Optimizing the diffusion coefficient of overdamped Langevin dynamics

Overdamped Langevin dynamics are reversible stochastic differential equations which are commonly used to sample probability measures in high-dimensional spaces, such as the ones appearing in computational statistical physics and Bayesian inference. By varying the diffusion coefficient, there are in fact infinitely many overdamped Langevin dynamics which are reversible with respect to the target probability measure at hand. This suggests to optimize the diffusion coefficient in order to increase the convergence rate of the dynamics, as measured by the spectral gap of the generator associated with the stochastic differential equation. We analytically study this problem here, obtaining in particular necessary conditions on the optimal diffusion coefficient. We also derive an explicit expression of the optimal diffusion in some appropriate homogenized limit. Numerical results, both relying on discretizations of the spectral gap problem and Monte Carlo simulations of the stochastic dynamics, demonstrate the increased quality of the sampling arising from an appropriate choice of the diffusion coefficient.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Approximating particle-based clustering dynamics by stochastic PDEs

This work proposes stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) as a practical tool to replicate clustering effects of more detailed particle-based dynamics. Inspired by membrane-mediated receptor dynamics on cell surfaces, we formulate a stochastic particle-based model for diffusion and pairwise interaction of particles, leading to intriguing clustering phenomena. Employing numerical simulation and cluster detection methods, we explore the approximation of the particle-based clustering dynamics through mean-field approaches. We find that SPDEs successfully reproduce spatiotemporal clustering dynamics, not only in the initial cluster formation period, but also on longer time scales where the successive merging of clusters cannot be tracked by deterministic mean-field models. The computational efficiency of the SPDE approach allows us to generate extensive statistical data for parameter estimation in a simpler model that uses a Markov jump process to capture the temporal evolution of the cluster number.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Nonparametric Inference in McKean-Vlasov models

We consider nonparametric statistical inference on a periodic interaction potential $W$ from noisy discrete space-time measurements of solutions $ρ=ρ_W$ of the nonlinear McKean-Vlasov equation, describing the probability density of the mean field limit of an interacting particle system. We show how Gaussian process priors assigned to $W$ give rise to posterior mean estimators that exhibit fast convergence rates for the implied estimated densities $\bar ρ$ towards $ρ_W$. We further show that if the initial condition $ϕ$ is not too smooth and satisfies a standard deconvolvability condition, then one can consistently infer Sobolev-regular potentials $W$ at convergence rates $N^{-θ}$ for appropriate $θ>0$, where $N$ is the number of measurements. The exponent $θ$ can be taken to approach $1/2$ as the regularity of $W$ increases corresponding to `near-parametric' models.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Computation and Control of Unstable Steady States for Mean Field Multiagent Systems

We study interacting particle systems driven by noise, modeling phenomena such as opinion dynamics. We are interested in systems that exhibit phase transitions i.e. non-uniqueness of stationary states for the corresponding McKean-Vlasov PDE, in the mean field limit. We develop an efficient numerical scheme for identifying all steady states (both stable and unstable) of the mean field McKean-Vlasov PDE, based on a spectral Galerkin approximation combined with a deflated Newton's method to handle the multiplicity of solutions. Having found all possible equilibra, we formulate an optimal control strategy for steering the dynamics towards a chosen unstable steady state. The control is computed using iterated open-loop solvers in a receding horizon fashion. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed steady state computation and stabilization methodology on several examples, including the noisy Hegselmann-Krause model for opinion dynamics and the Haken-Kelso-Bunz model from biophysics. The numerical experiments validate the ability of the approach to capture the rich self-organization landscape of these systems and to stabilize unstable configurations of interest. The proposed computational framework opens up new possibilities for understanding and controlling the collective behavior of noise-driven interacting particle systems, with potential applications in various fields such as social dynamics, biological synchronization, and collective behavior in physical and social systems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Filtered data based estimators for stochastic processes driven by colored noise

We consider the problem of estimating unknown parameters in stochastic differential equations driven by colored noise, which we model as a sequence of Gaussian stationary processes with decreasing correlation time. We aim to infer parameters in the limit equation, driven by white noise, given observations of the colored noise dynamics. We consider both the maximum likelihood and the stochastic gradient descent in continuous time estimators, and we propose to modify them by including filtered data. We provide a convergence analysis for our estimators showing their asymptotic unbiasedness in a general setting and asymptotic normality under a simplified scenario.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning for the identification of phase-transitions in interacting agent-based systems: a Desai-Zwanzig example

Deriving closed-form, analytical expressions for reduced-order models, and judiciously choosing the closures leading to them, has long been the strategy of choice for studying phase- and noise-induced transitions for agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework that pinpoints phase transitions for an ABM- the Desai-Zwanzig model in its mean-field limit, using a smaller number of variables than traditional closed-form models. To this end, we use the manifold learning algorithm Diffusion Maps to identify a parsimonious set of data-driven latent variables, and show that they are in one-to-one correspondence with the expected theoretical order parameter of the ABM. We then utilize a deep learning framework to obtain a conformal reparametrization of the data-driven coordinates that facilitates, in our example, the identification of a single parameter-dependent ODE in these coordinates. We identify this ODE through a residual neural network inspired by a numerical integration scheme (forward Euler). We then use the identified ODE - enabled through an odd symmetry transformation - to construct the bifurcation diagram exhibiting the phase transition.

math.DS↗

arXiv2024

Stochastic Mirror Descent for Convex Optimization with Consensus Constraints

The mirror descent algorithm is known to be effective in situations where it is beneficial to adapt the mirror map to the underlying geometry of the optimization model. However, the effect of mirror maps on the geometry of distributed optimization problems has not been previously addressed. In this paper we study an exact distributed mirror descent algorithm in continuous-time under additive noise. We establish a linear convergence rate of the proposed dynamics for the setting of convex optimization. Our analysis draws motivation from the Augmented Lagrangian and its relation to gradient tracking. To further explore the benefits of mirror maps in a distributed setting we present a preconditioned variant of our algorithm with an additional mirror map over the Lagrangian dual variables. This allows our method to adapt to both the geometry of the primal variables, as well as to the geometry of the consensus constraint. We also propose a Gauss-Seidel type discretization scheme for the proposed method and establish its linear convergence rate. For certain classes of problems we identify mirror maps that mitigate the effect of the graph's spectral properties on the convergence rate of the algorithm. Using numerical experiments we demonstrate the efficiency of the methodology on convex models, both with and without constraints. Our findings show that the proposed method outperforms other methods, especially in scenarios where the model's geometry is not captured by the standard Euclidean norm

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Eigenfunction martingale estimators for interacting particle systems and their mean field limit

We study the problem of parameter estimation for large exchangeable interacting particle systems when a sample of discrete observations from a single particle is known. We propose a novel method based on martingale estimating functions constructed by employing the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the generator of the mean field limit, where the law of the process is replaced by the (unique) invariant measure of the mean field dynamics. We then prove that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased and asymptotically normal when the number of observations and the number of particles tend to infinity, and we provide a rate of convergence towards the exact value of the parameters. Finally, we present several numerical experiments which show the accuracy of our estimator and corroborate our theoretical findings, even in the case the mean field dynamics exhibit more than one steady states.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

A method of moments estimator for interacting particle systems and their mean field limit

We study the problem of learning unknown parameters in stochastic interacting particle systems with polynomial drift, interaction and diffusion functions from the path of one single particle in the system. Our estimator is obtained by solving a linear system which is constructed by imposing appropriate conditions on the moments of the invariant distribution of the mean field limit and on the quadratic variation of the process. Our approach is easy to implement as it only requires the approximation of the moments via the ergodic theorem and the solution of a low-dimensional linear system. Moreover, we prove that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased in the limits of infinite data and infinite number of particles (mean field limit). In addition, we present several numerical experiments that validate the theoretical analysis and show the effectiveness of our methodology to accurately infer parameters in systems of interacting particles.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

Neural parameter calibration and uncertainty quantification for epidemic forecasting

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such predictions, in order, for instance, to be able to ready hospitals and intensive care units for a worst-case scenario without needlessly wasting resources. In this work, we apply a novel and powerful computational method to the problem of learning probability densities on contagion parameters and providing uncertainty quantification for pandemic projections. Using a neural network, we calibrate an ODE model to data of the spread of COVID-19 in Berlin in 2020, achieving both a significantly more accurate calibration and prediction than Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based sampling schemes. The uncertainties on our predictions provide meaningful confidence intervals e.g. on infection figures and hospitalisation rates, while training and running the neural scheme takes minutes where MCMC takes hours. We show convergence of our method to the true posterior on a simplified SIR model of epidemics, and also demonstrate our method's learning capabilities on a reduced dataset, where a complex model is learned from a small number of compartments for which data is available.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Inferring networks from time series: a neural approach

Network structures underlie the dynamics of many complex phenomena, from gene regulation and foodwebs to power grids and social media. Yet, as they often cannot be observed directly, their connectivities must be inferred from observations of the dynamics to which they give rise. In this work we present a powerful computational method to infer large network adjacency matrices from time series data using a neural network, in order to provide uncertainty quantification on the prediction in a manner that reflects both the degree to which the inference problem is underdetermined as well as the noise on the data. This is a feature that other approaches have hitherto been lacking. We demonstrate our method's capabilities by inferring line failure locations in the British power grid from its response to a power cut, providing probability densities on each edge and allowing the use of hypothesis testing to make meaningful probabilistic statements about the location of the cut. Our method is significantly more accurate than both Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling and least squares regression on noisy data and when the problem is underdetermined, while naturally extending to the case of non-linear dynamics, which we demonstrate by learning an entire cost matrix for a non-linear model of economic activity in Greater London. Not having been specifically engineered for network inference, this method in fact represents a general parameter estimation scheme that is applicable to any high-dimensional parameter space.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Variational Principles on Geometric Rough Paths and the Lévy Area Correction

In this paper, we describe two effects of the Lévy area correction on the invariant measure of stochastic rigid body dynamics on geometric rough paths. From the viewpoint of dynamics, the Lévy area correction introduces an additional deterministic torque into the rigid body motion equation on geometric rough paths. When the dynamics is driven by coloured noise, and for rigid body dynamics with double-bracket dissipation, theoretical and numerical results show that this additional deterministic torque shifts the centre of the probability distribution function by shifting the Hamiltonian function in the exponent of the Gibbsian invariant measure.

nlin.CD↗