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Guðmundur Stefánsson

Publications and source records attributed to Guðmundur Stefánsson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

POSEIDON III: The Aligned Orbit of the Hot Neptune Around the Hot Star WASP-195

Stellar obliquities provide important clues as to the formation and migration histories of planetary systems, but measurements remain scarce for Neptune-mass planets, especially those orbiting hot stars (above the Kraft break). Here we present observations of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect in the hot-star/hot-Neptune system WASP-195 ($T_{\rm eff}=6470\pm100$ K, $v\sin{i_\star}=10.5\pm1.1$ km s$^{-1}$) obtained with the Keck Planet Finder and NEID spectrographs. A joint analysis of these observations, archival photometry, and archival radial velocities yields a sky-projected stellar obliquity of $λ=-10\pm7^\circ$, consistent with spin-orbit alignment. This makes WASP-195 one of the few hot-star/hot-Neptune systems with a measured obliquity. Archival radial velocities from SOPHIE exclude Jupiter-mass planets within approximately 3 au at $5σ$ confidence. The aligned and nearly circular orbit is naturally consistent with a history of disk-driven migration, although coplanar high-eccentricity migration or Roche-lobe overflow cannot be ruled out. We also investigate why so few Neptunes around hot stars have measured obliquities. Their scarcity likely reflects a combination of the lower intrinsic occurrence of short-period Neptunes around hot stars and the difficulty of confirming planet candidates in this regime, where rapid stellar rotation broadens spectral lines and hampers conventional radial-velocity confirmation. Rapid rotation also increases the detectability of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, a feature that could help to widen the planet confirmation bottleneck while expanding the obliquity census of small planets around hot stars.

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Does HD 3167 Have Planets with Perpendicular Orbits?

The two transiting planets of HD 3167 were reported to follow nearly perpendicular paths, with the inner orbit aligned with the stellar equator and the outer orbit nearly polar. This interpretation depends critically on a challenging single-transit detection of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect of the inner planet. We observed three additional transits of the inner planet with the Keck Planet Finder and analyzed the new data together with two archival ESPRESSO transit datasets. We do not confirm the previously reported low obliquity. Our analysis favors a projected obliquity of $-66^{+14}_{-12}$ degrees, consistent with coplanar orbits. However, because the best-fit projected rotation velocity is higher than expected, and because the obliquity uncertainty grows substantially when the most discrepant of the five transit datasets is omitted, we regard the geometry of the HD 3167 system as still unsettled.

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Radial velocity follow-up of \textit{Gaia} astrometric substellar companions: six confirmed brown dwarfs and 13 impostor binaries

With microarcsecond precision, \textit{Gaia} has made the astrometric discovery of substellar companions feasible. However, follow-up observations are needed to check on orbital solutions and rule out astrophysical false positives. We validate and characterise a sample of 20 \textit{Gaia} Data Release 3 (DR3) astrometric candidates for substellar companions, with the dual goal of identifying false positives and deriving robust physical parameters for genuine companions. We performed high-resolution spectroscopy using FIES, NIRPS, and NEID at the Nordic Optical Telescope, the ESO 3.6m telescope, and the WIYN Telescope, respectively. Double-lined spectroscopic binaries were identified as false positives, and surviving systems were characterised through joint \textit{Gaia} astrometry and radial velocity modelling. Thirteen of the candidates proved to be near-twin binary stars for which the astrometric motion of the center of light is small enough to mimic that of a single star in response to a substellar companion. We confirm that six companions are brown dwarfs with masses in the range ${\sim}26$--$68\,M_\mathrm{Jup}$, two of them for the first time. In contrast to earlier studies of lower-mass \textit{Gaia} candidates, we find that the astrometric orbital solutions are generally reliable to within the stated uncertainties.

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GEMS JWST: Hold on to your HATS(-6 b), a sub-solar metallicity giant planet with water, methane and ammonia in its atmosphere

HATS-6 b is one of several recently discovered Giant Exoplanets orbiting M-dwarf Stars (GEMS) and is part of a JWST survey that aims to compare bulk and atmospheric properties of these rare planets against their FGK star counterparts. HATS-6 b is a warm ($\mathrm{T_{eq}}\sim700$ K), Saturn-mass ($M_p\sim0.3~\mathrm{M_J}$), Jupiter-radius ($R_p\sim1~\mathrm{R_J}$) planet that transits its star every $\sim$ 3 days. In this study, we present the transmission spectrum of HATS-6 b obtained with two transits using the PRISM mode of JWST Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec), spanning a wavelength range of $0.6-5.3$ um. Analyzing these JWST observations using an iterative approach between forward modeling and free chemistry retrievals, we derive a low metallicity ($\log\mathrm{[M/H]}=-1.99^{+0.2}_{-0.2}$) sub-solar C/O ($\log\mathrm{[C/O]=-0.46^{+0.2}_{-0.2}}$) atmosphere, and find strong evidence for H$_2$O, CH$_4$, and NH$_3$ at volume mixing ratios (in $\log[X]$) of $-4.88_{-0.24}^{+0.25}$, $-5.38_{-0.19}^{+0.18}$, and $-6.03_{-0.19}^{+0.18}$, respectively. We consistently retrieve a significantly lower $\mathrm{T_{eq}}$ than predicted from the orbital configuration of HATS-6 b, which was impervious to any data reduction and retrieval choices, suggesting a non-zero bond albedo. Our planetary interior models retrieve bulk metallicities three orders of magnitude larger than our retrieved atmospheric metallicity, also suggesting that the atmosphere is not well-mixed. We find an excess feature around 3 um, and expand on possible explanations for this, such as the presence of HCN or hydrocarbons like C$_2$H$_4$. Yet, due to the degeneracies present for hydrocarbon features in this wavelength region, we do not draw any conclusions about the excess feature and instead encourage further observations and follow-up of this intriguing target.

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Revisiting the Exo-Mercury Candidate GJ 367 b with ESPRESSO and a Self-Consistent Tidal Distortion Model

We report revised mass and radius measurements for GJ 367 b, an ultra-short-period (7.7 hr) sub-Earth in a multi-planet system orbiting a nearby (~9 pc) M dwarf host. Previous mass and radius measurements have suggested GJ 367 b has an anomalously high bulk density, close to that of solid iron. The existence of such an iron-rich planet is in tension with established planet formation scenarios. We utilized newly available TESS short-cadence photometry to constrain the radius of GJ 367 b to 0.736 +/- 0.035 R_Earth. We consider observational and modeling effects such as photometric dilution, stellar activity, and tidal distortion to account for possible inaccuracies in the star and planet radius measurements. From our radial velocity (RV) analysis using VLT/ESPRESSO data covering nearly the full orbit in a single night, we find a mass of 0.503 +/- 0.078 M_Earth, corresponding to a bulk density of 6.9 +1.6/-1.4 g cm-1. We present a new tidal distortion and interior composition modeling framework to assess the iron mass fraction of GJ 367 b. Considering several different interior composition assumptions and radial aspect ratios, we find an iron fraction of ~50-70%, which is broadly consistent with that of Mercury and not as iron rich as previously suggested.

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POSEIDON II: The Anti-Aligned Orbit of the Warm Neptune TOI-1710 A b

We present an observation of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for the TOI-1710 system with the NEID spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope. The system hosts a warm Neptune ($P\sim24$ days), and our observations reveal that it orbits in the opposite direction to the stellar spin, with a sky-projected obliquity $λ=179\pm19^{\circ}$. Combined with information about the rotation period of the host star, we measure a true obliquity $ψ=158_{-13}^{+11}\,^{\circ}$. The host star has an M-dwarf companion at a separation of $\sim3600$ au, but this companion is too distant to be solely responsible for misaligning the warm Neptune. The host star also shows a long-term radial velocity trend, indicative of a companion at intermediate separations. We show that such a companion can dynamically couple the warm Neptune to the distant M dwarf, enabling the transfer of inclination from the wide binary orbit to the planetary orbit. Assuming this scenario is correct, we predict the intermediate companion is a $\sim5\,M_J$ planet on a $\sim15$ au orbit that is nearly aligned with the transiting planet's orbit.

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POSEIDON I: The Dynamical Origins of Transiting Neptunes

We present the first results from the POSEIDON survey, aimed at constraining the dynamical origins of transiting Neptunes through stellar obliquity measurements. We report Rossiter-McLaughlin observations of two Neptunes, TOI-181 b and TOI-883 b, obtained with high-resolution spectroscopy from Magellan/PFS and WIYN/NEID. TOI-181 b is on a 4.5-day orbit with a sky-projected spin-orbit misalignment $λ= 32.0_{-6.5}^{+6.3}\,^{\circ}$ and a low eccentricity ($e<0.12$ with $2σ$ confidence). TOI-883 b has a longer orbital period of 10 days with $λ= 22_{-14}^{+15}\,^{\circ}$ and eccentricity $e = 0.16 \pm 0.03$. The significant misalignment of TOI-181 b and the significant eccentricity of TOI-883 b are suggestive of high-eccentricity migration for both systems. After adding these and other new measurements to the sample, we analyze the obliquity distribution of the host stars of transiting Neptunes. Earlier studies had suggested that the obliquity distribution is bimodal, with peaks corresponding to aligned orbits and polar orbits; the addition of more measurements has weakened the evidence for bimodality. The current sample appears to be consistent with a population of well-aligned systems and a smaller population with nearly random obliquities. This distribution resembles that observed for more massive planets, suggesting that transiting Jupiters and Neptunes originate from similar dynamical processes.

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GEMS JWST: Transmission spectroscopy of TOI-5205b reveals significant stellar contamination and a metal-poor atmosphere

Recent discoveries of transiting giant exoplanets ($R_p\gtrsim8\mathrm{~R_\oplus}$) around M dwarfs (GEMS) present an opportunity to investigate their atmospheric compositions and explore how such massive planets form around low-mass stars contrary to the prediction from formation models. We present the first transmission spectra of TOI-5205b, a short-period ($P=1.63~\mathrm{days}$) Jupiter-like planet ($M_p=1.08~\mathrm{M_J}$ and $R_p=0.94~\mathrm{R_J}$) orbiting an M4 dwarf ($M_\star=0.392~\mathrm{M_\odot}$, $R_\star=0.394~\mathrm{R_\odot}$). We obtained three transits using the PRISM mode of the JWST Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) spanning $0.6-5.3$ um. The data reveal significant stellar contamination that is evident in the light curves as spot-crossing events and in the transmission spectra as a larger transit depth at bluer wavelengths. Atmospheric retrievals demonstrate that stellar contamination from unocculted starspots and faculae is the dominant component of the transmission spectrum at wavelengths $λ\lesssim3.0$ um, reducing the sensitivity to the presence of clouds or hazes in our models and preventing detection of $\mathrm{H_2O}$. The wavelength coverage enabled a robust detection of $\mathrm{CH_4}$ and $\mathrm{H_2S}$, which have detectable molecular features between $3.0-5.0$ um. For both clear or cloudy atmospheres, Bayesian retrievals consistently favored an atmosphere with sub-solar metallicity ($3σ$ upper limit of $\log\mathrm{[M/H]}\lesssim-1.24$) and super-solar C/O ratio ($3σ$ lower limit of $\log\mathrm{[C/O]}\gtrsim0.09$), although this may partly be driven by the non-detection of water due to stellar contamination. Planetary interior models predict a bulk metallicity of 10--20\%, which is larger than the atmospheric metallicity and suggests that the interior of TOI-5205b is decoupled from its atmosphere.

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A young progenitor for the most common planetary systems in the Galaxy

The Galaxy's most common known planetary systems have several Earth-to-Neptune-size planets in compact orbits. At small orbital separations, larger planets are less common than their smaller counterparts by an order of magnitude. The young star V1298 Tau hosts one such compact planetary system, albeit with four planets that are uncommonly large (5 to 10 Earth radii). The planets form a chain of near-resonances that result in transit-timing variations of several hours. Here we present a multi-year campaign to characterize this system with transit-timing variations, a method insensitive to the intense magnetic activity of the star. Through targeted observations, we first resolved the previously unknown orbital period of the outermost planet. The full 9-year baseline from these and archival data then enabled robust determination of the masses and orbital parameters for all four planets. We find the planets have low, sub-Neptune masses and nearly circular orbits, implying a dynamically tranquil history. Their low masses and large radii indicate that the inner planets underwent a period of rapid cooling immediately after dispersal of the protoplanetary disk. Still, they are much less dense than mature planets of comparable size. We predict the planets will contract to 1.5-4.0 Earth radii and join the population of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes that nature produces in abundance.

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A Cold and Super-Puffy Planet on a Prograde Orbit

We report the discovery of TOI-4507 b, a transiting sub-Saturn with a density $<$ 0.2 g/cm$^3$ on a 105-day prograde orbit around a 700 Myr old F star. The transits were detected using data from TESS as well as the Antarctic telescope ASTEP. A joint analysis of the light curves and radial velocities from HARPS, FEROS, and CORALIE confirmed the planetary nature of the signal by limiting the mass to be below 20 $M_\oplus$ at 95% confidence. The radial velocities also exhibit the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and imply that the planet orbits the star in a prograde orbit with a sky-projected obliquity $λ=-15_{-44}^{+50}$ deg ($|λ|<80$ deg at $3σ$). With these characteristics, TOI-4507 is one of the longest-period systems for which the stellar obliquity has been measured, and the planet is among the longest-period and youngest ''super-puff'' planets yet discovered.

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Searching for GEMS: The Occurrence of Giant Planets orbiting M-dwarfs within 100 pc

We present results from a systematic search for transiting short-period Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars (GEMS; $P < 10$ days, $R_p \gtrsim 8~R_\oplus$) within a distance-limited 100 pc sample of $149,316$ M-dwarfs using TESS-Gaia Light Curve (TGLC) data. We describe the development and application of the \textit{TESS-miner} package and associated vetting procedures used in this analysis. To assess detection completeness, we conducted $\sim$72 million injection-recovery tests across $\sim$26,000 stars with an average of $\sim$3 sectors of data per star, subdivided into early-type (M0--M2.5), mid-type (M2.5--M4), and late-type (M4 or later) M-dwarfs. Our pipeline demonstrates high sensitivity across all subtypes within the injection bounds. We estimate the occurrence rates of short-period GEMS as a function of stellar mass, and combine our measured rates with those derived for FGK stars, fitting an exponential trend with stellar mass, consistent with core-accretion theory predictions. We find GEMS occurrence rates of $0.118\% \pm 0.068\%$ for early-type M-dwarfs, $0.153\% \pm 0.069\%$ for mid-type, and $0.036\% \pm 0.024\%$ for late-type M-dwarfs, with a mean rate of $0.068\%\pm0.024\%$ across the full sample. While our search spanned $1.0~\mathrm{days} < P < 10.0$ days, these rates were calculated using planets orbiting with $1.0~\mathrm{days} < P < 5.0$ days. This work establishes the basis for future occurrence rate studies of transiting GEMS.

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Hipparcos, Gaia, and RVs reveal that the radio emitting F star HD 220242 has an M dwarf companion, a likely source of the radio emission

The detection of circularly polarized, low frequency radio emission offers the tantalizing possibility of the observation of interactions between stars and their possible substellar companions, as well as direct emission from exoplanets. Additional follow up of systems with radio emission is key to understanding the true origin of the emission, since multiple astrophysical mechanisms can plausibly lead to such signals. While nineteen M dwarfs were detected by LOFAR in circular polarization as part of the V-LoTSS survey, HD~220242 is the only F star to have a circularly polarized low frequency radio detection in the same survey. We conducted radial velocity follow up with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder and combined these observations with additional archival RVs and \textit{Hipparcos}-\textit{Gaia} proper motion accelerations to determine that HD~220242 has a stellar companion with P=16.79$\pm$0.04\,yrs and a mass of $0.619\pm0.014$\,M$_\odot$. We use Spectral Energy Distribution fitting and lack of any UV excess to rule out a co-evolved white dwarf companion and confirm that the companion is an M dwarf star. Given that F stars lack the coronal properties to produce such coherent emission, and the companion mass and lack of UV excess are consistent with an M dwarf, the radio emission is most plausibly associated with the companion.

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Orbital decay candidates reconsidered: WASP-4 b is not decaying and Kepler-1658 b is not a planet

The fate of hot Jupiters is thought to be engulfment by their host stars, the outcome of tidal orbital decay. Transit timing has revealed a few systems with apparently shrinking orbital periods, but such signals can be mimicked by light travel-time effects (LTTE) of a distant companion. By combining transit timings with precise radial-velocity data, including new data, we reassessed three reported cases of orbital decay: WASP-4, WASP-12, and Kepler-1658. For WASP-4, the period change is best explained by LTTE due to an ~7 Jupiter-mass companion at ~8 AU, with no need to invoke orbital decay. For WASP-12, in contrast, the data firmly exclude LTTE and confirm genuine orbital decay. For Kepler-1658, spectroscopic and photometric anomalies reveal the "planet" to be an eclipsing K/M binary bound to the F-type primary, with LTTE explaining the observed period change. Thus, among the known hot Jupiters, only WASP-12 b currently shows compelling evidence for orbital decay.

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Searching for GEMS: TOI-5349b is a Saturn-like planet orbiting a metal-rich early M-dwarf

We report the confirmation and analysis of TOI-5349b, a transiting, warm, Saturn-like planet orbiting an early M-dwarf with a period of $\sim$3.3 days, which we confirmed as part of the Searching for GEMS (Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars) survey. TOI-5349b was initially identified in photometry from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission and subsequently confirmed using high-precision radial velocity (RV) measurements from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) and MAROON-X spectrographs, and from ground-based transit observations obtained using the 0.6-m telescope at Red Buttes Observatory (RBO) and the 1.0-m telescope at the Table Mountain Facility of Pomona College. From a joint fit of the RV and photometric data, we determine the planet's mass and radius to be $0.40\pm 0.02~\mathrm{M_J}$ ($127.4_{-5.7}^{+5.9}~M_\oplus$) and $0.91\pm 0.02~\mathrm{R_J}$ ($10.2\pm 0.3~R_\oplus$), respectively, resulting in a bulk density of $ρ_p=0.66 \pm0.06~\mathrm{g~cm^{-3}}$ ($\sim$0.96 the density of Saturn). We determine that the host star is a metal-rich M1-type dwarf with a mass and radius of $0.61 \pm 0.02~M_\odot$ and $0.58\pm 0.01~R_\odot$, and an effective temperature of $T_\mathrm{eff} = 3751 \pm 59$ K. Our analysis highlights an emerging pattern, exemplified by TOI-5349, in which transiting GEMS often have Saturn-like masses and densities and orbit metal-rich stars. With the growing sample of GEMS planets, comparative studies of short-period gas giants orbiting M-dwarfs and Sun-like stars are needed to investigate how metallicity and disk conditions shape the formation and properties of these planets.

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The NEID Earth Twin Survey. III. Survey Performance After Three Years on Sky

The NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) has been delivering a rich set of precise radial velocity (RV) measurements for 41 bright, nearby main sequence stars. Here, we describe the status of the survey after three years on sky and we present the full set of RV measurements and accompanying stellar activity indicators. We discuss intermediate survey diagnostics, including calibration of the known RV zero point offset introduced following the Contreras fire in 2022 and the identification of an undiagnosed and previously unknown zero point offset in 2021. An analysis of our data set using RVSearch demonstrates that for these target stars, NEID is independently sensitive to nearly all known planets with periods shorter than the NETS observing baseline. We also highlight a number of newly detected RV signals, which present exciting opportunities for future investigations.

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Searching for GEMS: TOI-7149~b an Inflated Giant Planet causing a 12% Transit of a Fully Convective M-dwarf

We describe the discovery and characterization of TOI-7149~b, a 0.705 $\pm$ 0.075 $M_J$, 1.18 $\pm$ 0.045 $R_J$ gas giant on a $\sim 2.65$ day period orbit transiting an M4V star with a mass of 0.344 $\pm$ 0.030~\solmass{} and an effective temperature of 3363 $\pm$ 59 K. The planet was first discovered using NASA's TESS mission, which we confirmed using a combination of ground-based photometry, radial velocities, and speckle imaging. The planet has one of the deepest transits of all known main-sequence planet hosts at $\sim$ 12\% ($R_p/R_\star\sim 0.33$). Pushing the bounds of previous discoveries of \underline{G}iant \underline{E}xoplanets around \underline{M}-dwarf \underline{S}tars (GEMS), TOI-7149 is one of the lowest mass M-dwarfs to host a transiting giant planet. We compare the sample of transiting GEMS to stars within 200 pc with a Gaia colour magnitude diagram (CMD) and find that the GEMS hosts are likely to be high metallicity stars. We also analyze the sample of transiting giant planets using the non-parametric \texttt{MRExo} framework to compare the bulk density of warm Jupiters across stellar masses. We confirm our previous result that transiting Jupiters around early M-dwarfs have similar masses and densities to warm Jupiters around FGK stars, and extend this to mid M-dwarfs, thereby suggesting a potential commonality in their formation mechanisms.

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The Epoch of Giant Planet Migration Planet Search Program. III. The Occurrence Rate of Young Giant Planets Inside the Water Ice Line

We present statistical results from the Epoch of Giant Planet Migration RV planet search program. This survey was designed to measure the occurrence rate of giant planets interior to the water ice line of young Sun-like stars, compare this to the prevalence of giant planets at older ages, and provide constraints on the timescale and dominant inward migration mechanism of giant planets. Our final sample amounts to 85 single young (20-200 Myr) G and K dwarfs which we target across a 4-year time baseline with the near-infrared Habitable-zone Planet Finder spectrograph at McDonald Observatory's Hobby-Eberly Telescope. As part of this survey, we discovered the young hot Jupiter HS Psc b. We characterize survey detection completeness with realistic injection-recovery tests and measure an occurrence rate of $1.9^{+2.6}_{-1.4}$% for intermediate-age giant planets ($0.3 < m \; sin \; i < 13$ $M_\mathrm{Jup}$) within 2.5 AU. This is lower than the field age occurrence rate for the same planet masses and separations and favors an increase in the prevalence of giant planets over time from $\sim$100 Myr to several Gyr, although our results cannot rule out a constant rate. A decaying planet occurrence rate is, however, strongly excluded. This suggests that giant planets located inside the water ice line originate from a combination of in situ formation or early migration coupled with longer-term inward scattering. The completeness-corrected prevalence of young hot Jupiters in our sample is $1.5^{+2.2}_{-1.1}$%--similar to the rate for field stars--and the 95% upper limit for young brown dwarfs within 5000 d is $<$3.6%.

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The Spin-Orbit Alignment of 8 Warm Gas Giant Systems

Essential information about the formation and evolution of planetary systems can be found in their architectures -- in particular, in stellar obliquity ($ψ$) -- as they serve as a signature of their dynamical evolution. Here, we present ESPRESSO observations of the Rossiter-Mclaughlin (RM) effect of 8 warm gas giants, revealing that independent of the eccentricities, all of them have relatively aligned orbits. Our 5 warm Jupiters -- WASP-106 b, WASP-130 b, TOI-558 b, TOI-4515 b, and TOI-5027 b -- have sky-projected obliquities $|λ|\simeq0-10$ deg while the 2 less massive warm Saturns -- K2-139 b and K2-329 A b -- are slightly misaligned having $|λ|\simeq15-25$ deg. Furthermore, for K2-139 b, K2-329 A b, and TOI-4515 b, we also measure true 3D obliquities $ψ\simeq15-30$ deg. We also report a non-detection of the RM effect produced by TOI-2179 b. Through hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the true 3D obliquities of hot and warm Jupiters, we find that around single stars, warm Jupiters are statistically more aligned than hot Jupiters. Independent of eccentricities, 95\% of the warm Jupiters have $ψ\lesssim30$ deg with no misaligned planets, while hot Jupiters show an almost isotropic distribution of misaligned systems. This implies that around single stars, warm Jupiters form in primordially aligned protoplanetary disks and subsequently evolve in a more quiescent way than hot Jupiters. Finally, we find that Saturns may have slightly more misaligned orbits than warm Jupiters, but more obliquity measurements are necessary to be conclusive.

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