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arXiv2026

The Fate of the Milky Way--Andromeda System: To Merge or Not?

It has long been predicted that the Milky Way (MW) will eventually merge with Andromeda (M31), a view reinforced by \textit{HST} measurements indicating a small M31 transverse velocity. However, using updated \textit{Gaia}-based proper motions (PMs) and including the dynamical influence of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and M33, Sawala et al. reported an MW--M31 merger probability of $\sim$50\% within 10 Gyr, leaving the fate of the Local Group (LG) uncertain. Adopting their semi-analytic framework, we revisit this problem with the latest and most precise \textit{Gaia}-based PMs for M31 and M33, corrected for systematic offsets in \textit{Gaia} astrometry. In our fiducial model, the MW--M31 merger probability rises to 90\%, with a median merger time of $6.5_{-1.5}^{+1.3}$ Gyr, broadly restoring the classical picture. A sensitivity analysis shows that the merger probability depends strongly on the adopted M31 PM through two channels: a direct effect via the radial-tangential balance of the MW-M31 orbit, and a satellite-mediated effect, where the M31 PM fixes the orbital plane and determines how satellite-induced barycentric reflex motions project onto it, either promoting or suppressing a merger. Given this sensitivity, current measurements, while favoring a high merger probability, remain inconclusive, spanning from 64.7\% to 100\% across the 2$\sigma$ PM region. Future PM measurements with uncertainty of $\lesssim2\,\upmu\mathrm{as\,yr^{-1}}$ will be required to reach a firm conclusion, i.e., to constrain the probability range within 10\% at the 2$\sigma$ level.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Controlled Experiments on Dark-Matter Halo Structure and Galaxy Morphology I: What Sets Galaxy Sizes?

The properties of galaxies are intricately linked to the characteristics of their host dark-matter haloes. We use a suite of controlled simulations of isolated galaxies to quantify how halo spin, concentration, inner density profile, and baryon fraction regulate galaxy sizes, at fixed halo mass of $M_{\rm{vir}}=10^{11} M_\odot$. We generate initial conditions of haloes and inhabitant spherical gas distributions in equilibrium, on a parameter grid spanned by these four halo parameters, and evolve the systems with the $\texttt{GIZMO}$ code and the $\texttt{FIRE-3}$ physics. The resulting half-mass radii of stars and cold baryons depend systematically on halo structure and baryon content: galaxy size increases with halo spin, decreases with halo concentration, is weakly sensitive to the inner density slope except in highly cuspy haloes, and is strongly suppressed at high baryon fractions. We evaluate the relative importance of the halo parameters on galaxy size using different metrics including the quadratic response-surface method and random-forest regression, and consistently find halo concentration to be the most informative predictor of size. The baryon fraction shows a subtle, non-monotonic impact on size, by modulating how galaxy size depends on halo spin. Our results clarify which secondary parameters of host dark-matter haloes dominate the scatter in galaxy sizes at the massive-dwarf mass scale.

astro-ph.GA↗