arXiv subjects

Guido Ascari

Publications and source records attributed to Guido Ascari.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Coherence without Rationality at the Zero Lower Bound

Standard rational expectations models with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint either admit no solutions (incoherence) or multiple solutions (incompleteness). This paper shows that deviations from full-information rational expectations mitigate concerns about incoherence and incompleteness. Models with no rational expectations equilibria admit self-confirming equilibria involving the use of simple mis-specified forecasting models. Completeness and coherence is restored if expectations are adaptive or if agents are less forward-looking due to some information or behavioral friction. In the case of incompleteness, the E-stability criterion selects an equilibrium.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for investment in the US

Is the typical specification of the Euler equation for investment employed in DSGE models consistent with aggregate macro data? Using state-of-the-art econometric methods that are robust to weak instruments and exploit information in possible structural changes, the answer is yes. Unfortunately, however, there is very little information about the values of these parameters in aggregate data because investment is unresponsive to changes in capital utilization and the real interest rate. In DSGE models, the investment adjustment cost and the persistence of the investment-specific technology shock parameters are mainly identified by, respectively, the cross-equation restrictions and the dynamics implied by the structure of the model.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment

Structural models with no solution are incoherent, and those with multiple solutions are incomplete. We show that models with occasionally binding constraints are not generically coherent. Coherency requires restrictions on the parameters or on the support of the distribution of the shocks. In presence of multiple shocks, the support restrictions cannot be independent from each other, so the assumption of orthogonality of structural shocks is incompatible with coherency. Models whose coherency is based on support restrictions are generically incomplete, admitting a very large number of minimum state variable solutions.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

The public debt multiplier

We study the effects on economic activity of a pure temporary change in government debt and the relationship between the debt multiplier and the level of debt in an overlapping generations framework. The debt multiplier is positive but quite small during normal times while it is much larger during crises. Moreover, it increases with the steady state level of debt. Hence, the call for fiscal consolidation during recessions seems ill-advised. Finally, a rise in the steady state debt-to-GDP level increases the steady state real interest rate providing more room for manoeuvre to monetary policy to fight deflationary shocks.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Monetary-fiscal interactions under price level targeting

The adoption of a "makeup" strategy is one of the proposals in the ongoing review of the Fed's monetary policy framework. Another suggestion, to avoid the zero lower bound, is a more active role for fiscal policy. We put together these ideas to study monetary-fiscal interactions under price level targeting. Under price level targeting and a fiscally-led regime, we find that following a deflationary demand shock: (i) the central bank increases (rather than decreases) the policy rate; (ii) the central bank, thus, avoids the zero lower bound; (iii) price level targeting is generally welfare improving if compared to inflation targeting.

econ.GN↗