arXiv subjects

Guido Caldarelli

Publications and source records attributed to Guido Caldarelli.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Science vs Conspiracy: collective narratives in the age of (mis)information

The large availability of user provided contents on online social media facilitates people aggregation around common interests, worldviews and narratives. However, in spite of the enthusiastic rhetoric about the so called {\em wisdom of crowds}, unsubstantiated rumors -- as alternative explanation to main stream versions of complex phenomena -- find on the Web a natural medium for their dissemination. In this work we study, on a sample of 1.2 million of individuals, how information related to very distinct narratives -- i.e. main stream scientific and alternative news -- are consumed on Facebook. Through a thorough quantitative analysis, we show that distinct communities with similar information consumption patterns emerge around distinctive narratives. Moreover, consumers of alternative news (mainly conspiracy theories) result to be more focused on their contents, while scientific news consumers are more prone to comment on alternative news. We conclude our analysis testing the response of this social system to 4709 troll information -- i.e. parodistic imitation of alternative and conspiracy theories. We find that, despite the false and satirical vein of news, usual consumers of conspiracy news are the most prone to interact with them.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. Most importantly, we have a multilevel description of the evolution where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) tend to be correlated with the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members). In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a preferential attachment mechanism both inter- and intra-communities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Distributed Generation and Resilience in Power Grids

We study the effects of the allocation of distributed generation on the resilience of power grids. We find that an unconstrained allocation and growth of the distributed generation can drive a power grid beyond its design parameters. In order to overcome such a problem, we propose a topological algorithm derived from the field of Complex Networks to allocate distributed generation sources in an existing power grid.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Optimal scales in weighted networks

The analysis of networks characterized by links with heterogeneous intensity or weight suffers from two long-standing problems of arbitrariness. On one hand, the definitions of topological properties introduced for binary graphs can be generalized in non-unique ways to weighted networks. On the other hand, even when a definition is given, there is no natural choice of the (optimal) scale of link intensities (e.g. the money unit in economic networks). Here we show that these two seemingly independent problems can be regarded as intimately related, and propose a common solution to both. Using a formalism that we recently proposed in order to map a weighted network to an ensemble of binary graphs, we introduce an information-theoretic approach leading to the least biased generalization of binary properties to weighted networks, and at the same time fixing the optimal scale of link intensities. We illustrate our method on various social and economic networks.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2013

Low-temperature behaviour of social and economic networks

Real-world social and economic networks typically display a number of particular topological properties, such as a giant connected component, a broad degree distribution, the small-world property and the presence of communities of densely interconnected nodes. Several models, including ensembles of networks also known in social science as Exponential Random Graphs, have been proposed with the aim of reproducing each of these properties in isolation. Here we define a generalized ensemble of graphs by introducing the concept of graph temperature, controlling the degree of topological optimization of a network. We consider the temperature-dependent version of both existing and novel models and show that all the aforementioned topological properties can be simultaneously understood as the natural outcomes of an optimized, low-temperature topology. We also show that seemingly different graph models, as well as techniques used to extract information from real networks, are all found to be particular low-temperature cases of the same generalized formalism. One such technique allows us to extend our approach to real weighted networks. Our results suggest that a low graph temperature might be an ubiquitous property of real socio-economic networks, placing conditions on the diffusion of information across these systems.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2013

Influence of media on collective debates

The information system (T.V., newspapers, blogs, social network platforms) and its inner dynamics play a fundamental role on the evolution of collective debates and thus on the public opinion. In this work we address such a process focusing on how the current inner strategies of the information system (competition, customer satisfaction) once combined with the gossip may affect the opinions dynamics. A reinforcement effect is particularly evident in the social network platforms where several and incompatible cultures coexist (e.g, pro or against the existence of chemical trails and reptilians, the new world order conspiracy and so forth). We introduce a computational model of opinion dynamics which accounts for the coexistence of media and gossip as separated but interdependent mechanisms influencing the opinions evolution. Individuals may change their opinions under the contemporary pressure of the information supplied by the media and the opinions of their social contacts. We stress the effect of the media communication patterns by considering both the simple case where each medium mimics the behavior of the most successful one (in order to maximize the audience) and the case where there is polarization and thus competition among media reported information (in order to preserve and satisfy their segmented audience). Finally, we first model the information cycle as in the case of traditional main stream media (i.e, when every medium knows about the format of all the others) and then, to account for the effect of the Internet, on more complex connectivity patterns (as in the case of the web based information). We show that multiple and polarized information sources lead to stable configurations where several and distant opinions coexist.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Self-healing networks: redundancy and structure

We introduce the concept of self-healing in the field of complex networks. Obvious applications range from infrastructural to technological networks. By exploiting the presence of redundant links in recovering the connectivity of the system, we introduce self-healing capabilities through the application of distributed communication protocols granting the "smartness" of the system. We analyze the interplay between redundancies and smart reconfiguration protocols in improving the resilience of networked infrastructures to multiple failures; in particular, we measure the fraction of nodes still served for increasing levels of network damages. We study the effects of different connectivity patterns (planar square-grids, small-world, scale-free networks) on the healing performances. The study of small-world topologies shows us that the introduction of some long-range connections in the planar grids greatly enhances the resilience to multiple failures giving results comparable to the most resilient (but less realistic) scale-free structures.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Robustness and Assortativity for Diffusion-like Processes in Scale-free Networks

By analysing the diffusive dynamics of epidemics and of distress in complex networks, we study the effect of the assortativity on the robustness of the networks. We first determine by spectral analysis the thresholds above which epidemics/failures can spread; we then calculate the slowest diffusional times. Our results shows that disassortative networks exhibit a higher epidemiological threshold and are therefore easier to immunize, while in assortative networks there is a longer time for intervention before epidemic/failure spreads. Moreover, we study by computer simulations the sandpile cascade model, a diffusive model of distress propagation (financial contagion). We show that, while assortative networks are more prone to the propagation of epidemic/failures, degree-targeted immunization policies increases their resilience to systemic risk.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Bootstrapping topology and systemic risk of complex network using the fitness model

We present a novel method to reconstruct complex network from partial information. We assume to know the links only for a subset of the nodes and to know some non-topological quantity (fitness) characterising every node. The missing links are generated on the basis of the latter quan- tity according to a fitness model calibrated on the subset of nodes for which links are known. We measure the quality of the reconstruction of several topological properties, such as the network density and the degree distri- bution as a function of the size of the initial subset of nodes. Moreover, we also study the resilience of the network to distress propagation. We first test the method on ensembles of synthetic networks generated with the Exponential Random Graph model which allows to apply common tools from statistical mechanics. We then test it on the empirical case of the World Trade Web. In both cases, we find that a subset of 10 % of nodes is enough to reconstruct the main features of the network along with its resilience with an error of 5%.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Population Dynamics on Complex Food Webs

In this work we analyse the topological and dynamical properties of a simple model of complex food webs, namely the niche model. In order to underline competition among species, we introduce "prey" and "predators" weighted overlap graphs derived from the niche model and compare synthetic food webs with real data. Doing so, we find new tests for the goodness of synthetic food web models and indicate a possible direction of improvement for existing ones. We then exploit the weighted overlap graphs to define a competition kernel for Lotka-Volterra population dynamics and find that for such a model the stability of food webs decreases with its ecological complexity.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2012

Web search queries can predict stock market volumes

We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that query volumes (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful exemples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with the volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2012

A network analysis of countries' export flows: firm grounds for the building blocks of the economy

In this paper we analyze the bipartite network of countries and products from UN data on country production. We define the country-country and product-product projected networks and introduce a novel method of filtering information based on elements' similarity. As a result we find that country clustering reveals unexpected socio-geographic links among the most competing countries. On the same footings the products clustering can be efficiently used for a bottom-up classification of produced goods. Furthermore we mathematically reformulate the "reflections method" introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann as a fixpoint problem; such formulation highlights some conceptual weaknesses of the approach. To overcome such an issue, we introduce an alternative methodology (based on biased Markov chains) that allows to rank countries in a conceptually consistent way. Our analysis uncovers a strong non-linear interaction between the diversification of a country and the ubiquity of its products, thus suggesting the possible need of moving towards more efficient and direct non-linear fixpoint algorithms to rank countries and products in the global market.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

The Evolution of Complex Networks: A New Framework

We introduce a new framework for the analysis of the dynamics of networks, based on randomly reinforced urn (RRU) processes, in which the weight of the edges is determined by a reinforcement mechanism. We rigorously explain the empirical evidence that in many real networks there is a subset of "dominant edges" that control a major share of the total weight of the network. Furthermore, we introduce a new statistical procedure to study the evolution of networks over time, assessing if a given instance of the nework is taken at its steady state or not. Our results are quite general, since they are not based on a particular probability distribution or functional form of the weights. We test our model in the context of the International Trade Network, showing the existence of a core of dominant links and determining its size.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Networks with arbitrary edge multiplicities

One of the main characteristics of real-world networks is their large clustering. Clustering is one aspect of a more general but much less studied structural organization of networks, i.e. edge multiplicity, defined as the number of triangles in which edges, rather than vertices, participate. Here we show that the multiplicity distribution of real networks is in many cases scale-free, and in general very broad. Thus, besides the fact that in real networks the number of edges attached to vertices often has a scale-free distribution, we find that the number of triangles attached to edges can have a scale-free distribution as well. We show that current models, even when they generate clustered networks, systematically fail to reproduce the observed multiplicity distributions. We therefore propose a generalized model that can reproduce networks with arbitrary distributions of vertex degrees and edge multiplicities, and study many of its properties analytically.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Topologically biased random walk with application for community finding in networks

We present a new approach of topology biased random walks for undirected networks. We focus on a one parameter family of biases and by using a formal analogy with perturbation theory in quantum mechanics we investigate the features of biased random walks. This analogy is extended through the use of parametric equations of motion (PEM) to study the features of random walks {\em vs.} parameter values. Furthermore, we show an analysis of the spectral gap maximum associated to the value of the second eigenvalue of the transition matrix related to the relaxation rate to the stationary state. Applications of these studies allow {\em ad hoc} algorithms for the exploration of complex networks and their communities.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2009

Hypergraph topological quantities for tagged social networks

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of a new class of social networks, that require us to move beyond previously employed representations of complex graph structures. A notable example is that of the folksonomy, an online process where users collaboratively employ tags to resources to impart structure to an otherwise undifferentiated database. In a recent paper[1] we proposed a mathematical model that represents these structures as tripartite hypergraphs and defined basic topological quantities of interest. In this paper we extend our model by defining additional quantities such as edge distributions, vertex similarity and correlations as well as clustering. We then empirically measure these quantities on two real life folksonomies, the popular online photo sharing site Flickr and the bookmarking site CiteULike. We find that these systems share similar qualitative features with the majority of complex networks that have been previously studied. We propose that the quantities and methodology described here can be used as a standard tool in measuring the structure of tagged networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2009

Random hypergraphs and their applications

In the last few years we have witnessed the emergence, primarily in on-line communities, of new types of social networks that require for their representation more complex graph structures than have been employed in the past. One example is the folksonomy, a tripartite structure of users, resources, and tags -- labels collaboratively applied by the users to the resources in order to impart meaningful structure on an otherwise undifferentiated database. Here we propose a mathematical model of such tripartite structures which represents them as random hypergraphs. We show that it is possible to calculate many properties of this model exactly in the limit of large network size and we compare the results against observations of a real folksonomy, that of the on-line photography web site Flickr. We show that in some cases the model matches the properties of the observed network well, while in others there are significant differences, which we find to be attributable to the practice of multiple tagging, i.e., the application by a single user of many tags to one resource, or one tag to many resources.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2009

On the rich-club effect in dense and weighted networks

For many complex networks present in nature only a single instance, usually of large size, is available. Any measurement made on this single instance cannot be repeated on different realizations. In order to detect significant patterns in a real--world network it is therefore crucial to compare the measured results with a null model counterpart. Here we focus on dense and weighted networks, proposing a suitable null model and studying the behaviour of the degree correlations as measured by the rich-club coefficient. Our method solves an existing problem with the randomization of dense unweighted graphs, and at the same time represents a generalization of the rich--club coefficient to weighted networks which is complementary to other recently proposed ones.

physics.soc-ph↗