arXiv subjects

Guido Cervone

Publications and source records attributed to Guido Cervone.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

MeltwaterBench: Deep learning for spatiotemporal downscaling of surface meltwater

The Greenland ice sheet is melting at an accelerated rate due to processes that are not fully understood and hard to measure. The distribution of surface meltwater can help understand these processes and is observable through remote sensing, but current maps of meltwater face a trade-off: They are either high-resolution in time or space, but not both. We develop a deep learning model that creates gridded surface meltwater maps at daily 100m resolution by fusing data streams from remote sensing observations and physics-based models. In particular, we spatiotemporally downscale regional climate model (RCM) outputs using synthetic aperture radar (SAR), passive microwave (PMW), and a digital elevation model (DEM) over the Helheim Glacier in Eastern Greenland from 2017-2023. Using SAR-derived meltwater as "ground truth", we show that a deep learning-based method that fuses all data streams is over 10 percentage points more accurate over our study area than existing non deep learning-based approaches that only rely on a regional climate model (83% vs. 95% Acc.) or passive microwave observations (72% vs. 95% Acc.). Alternatively, creating a gridded product through a running window calculation with SAR data underestimates extreme melt events, but also achieves notable accuracy (90%) and does not rely on deep learning. We evaluate standard deep learning methods (UNet and DeepLabv3+), and publish our spatiotemporally aligned dataset as a benchmark, MeltwaterBench, for intercomparisons with more complex data-driven downscaling methods. The code and data are available at github.com/blutjens/hrmelt.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

From Questions to Queries: An AI-powered Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Text-to-SQL

The complexity of SQL and the spatial semantics of PostGIS create barriers for non-experts working with spatial data. Although large language models can translate natural language into SQL, spatial Text-to-SQL is more error-prone than general Text-to-SQL because it must resolve geographic intent, schema ambiguity, geometry-bearing tables and columns, spatial function choice, and coordinate reference system and measurement assumptions. We introduce a multi-agent framework that addresses these coupled challenges through staged interpretation, schema grounding, logical planning, SQL generation, and execution-based review. The framework is supported by a knowledge base with programmatic schema profiling, semantic enrichment, and embedding-based retrieval. We evaluated the framework on the non-spatial KaggleDBQA benchmark and on SpatialQueryQA, a new multi-level and coverage-oriented benchmark with diverse geometry types, workload categories, and spatial operations. On KaggleDBQA, the system reached 81.2% accuracy, 221 of 272 questions, after reviewer corrections. On SpatialQueryQA, the system achieved 87.7% accuracy, 79 of 90, compared with 76.7% without the review stage. These results show that decomposing the task into specialized but tightly coupled agents improves robustness, especially for spatially sensitive queries. The study improves access to spatial analysis and provides a practical step toward more reliable spatial Text-to-SQL systems and autonomous GIS.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Multimodal Atmospheric Super-Resolution With Deep Generative Models

Score-based diffusion modeling is a generative machine learning algorithm that can be used to sample from complex distributions. They achieve this by learning a score function, i.e., the gradient of the log-probability density of the data, and reversing a noising process using the same. Once trained, score-based diffusion models not only generate new samples but also enable zero-shot conditioning of the generated samples on observed data. This promises a novel paradigm for data and model fusion, wherein the implicitly learned distributions of pretrained score-based diffusion models can be updated given the availability of online data in a Bayesian formulation. In this article, we apply such a concept to the super-resolution of a high-dimensional dynamical system, given the real-time availability of low-resolution and experimentally observed sparse sensor measurements from multimodal data. Additional analysis on how score-based sampling can be used for uncertainty estimates is also provided. Our experiments are performed for a super-resolution task that generates the ERA5 atmospheric dataset given sparse observations from a coarse-grained representation of the same and/or from unstructured experimental observations of the IGRA radiosonde dataset. We demonstrate accurate recovery of the high dimensional state given multiple sources of low-fidelity measurements. We also discover that the generative model can balance the influence of multiple dataset modalities during spatiotemporal reconstructions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

GIScience in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: A Research Agenda Towards Autonomous GIS

The advent of generative AI exemplified by large language models (LLMs) opens new ways to represent and compute geographic information and transcends the process of geographic knowledge production, driving geographic information systems (GIS) towards autonomous GIS. Leveraging LLMs as the decision core, autonomous GIS can independently generate and execute geoprocessing workflows to perform spatial analysis. In this vision paper, we further elaborate on the concept of autonomous GIS and present a conceptual framework that defines its five autonomous goals, five autonomous levels, five core functions, and three operational scales. We demonstrate how autonomous GIS could perform geospatial data retrieval, spatial analysis, and map making with four proof-of-concept GIS agents. We conclude by identifying critical challenges and future research directions, including fine-tuning and self-growing decision-cores, autonomous modeling, and examining the societal and practical implications of autonomous GIS. By establishing the groundwork for a paradigm shift in GIScience, this paper envisions a future where GIS moves beyond traditional workflows to autonomously reason, derive, innovate, and advance geospatial solutions to pressing global challenges. Meanwhile, as we design and deploy increasingly intelligent geospatial systems, we carry a responsibility to ensure they are developed in socially responsible ways, serve the public good, and support the continued value of human geographic insight in an AI-augmented future.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Ill-posed Surface Emissivity Retrieval from Multi-Geometry Hyperspectral Images using a Hybrid Deep Neural Network

Atmospheric correction is a fundamental task in remote sensing because observations are taken either of the atmosphere or looking through the atmosphere. Atmospheric correction errors can significantly alter the spectral signature of the observations, and lead to invalid classifications or target detection. This is even more crucial when working with hyperspectral data, where a precise measurement of spectral properties is required. State-of-the-art physics-based atmospheric correction approaches require extensive prior knowledge about sensor characteristics, collection geometry, and environmental characteristics of the scene being collected. These approaches are computationally expensive, prone to inaccuracy due to lack of sufficient environmental and collection information, and often impossible for real-time applications. In this paper, a geometry-dependent hybrid neural network is proposed for automatic atmospheric correction using multi-scan hyperspectral data collected from different geometries. The proposed network can characterize the atmosphere without any additional meteorological data. A grid-search method is also proposed to solve the temperature emissivity separation problem. Results show that the proposed network has the capacity to accurately characterize the atmosphere and estimate target emissivity spectra with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) under 0.02 for 29 different materials. This solution can lead to accurate atmospheric correction to improve target detection for real time applications.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2022

A Scalable Solution for Running Ensemble Simulations for Photovoltaic Energy

This chapter proposes and provides an in-depth discussion of a scalable solution for running ensemble simulation for solar energy production. Generating a forecast ensemble is computationally expensive. But with the help of Analog Ensemble, forecast ensembles can be generated with a single deterministic run of a weather forecast model. Weather ensembles are then used to simulate 11 10 KW photovoltaic solar power systems to study the simulation uncertainty under a wide range of panel configuration and weather conditions. This computational workflow has been deployed onto the NCAR supercomputer, Cheyenne, with more than 7,000 cores. Results show that, spring and summer are typically associated with a larger simulation uncertainty. Optimizing the panel configuration based on their individual performance under changing weather conditions can improve the simulation accuracy by more than 12%. This work also shows how panel configuration can be optimized based on geographic locations.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2021

Improving the Thermal Infrared Monitoring of Volcanoes: A Deep Learning Approach for Intermittent Image Series

Active volcanoes are globally distributed and pose societal risks at multiple geographic scales, ranging from local hazards to regional/international disruptions. Many volcanoes do not have continuous ground monitoring networks; meaning that satellite observations provide the only record of volcanic behavior and unrest. Among these remote sensing observations, thermal imagery is inspected daily by volcanic observatories for examining the early signs, onset, and evolution of eruptive activity. However, thermal scenes are often obstructed by clouds, meaning that forecasts must be made off image sequences whose scenes are only usable intermittently through time. Here, we explore forecasting this thermal data stream from a deep learning perspective using existing architectures that model sequences with varying spatiotemporal considerations. Additionally, we propose and evaluate new architectures that explicitly model intermittent image sequences. Using ASTER Kinetic Surface Temperature data for $9$ volcanoes between $1999$ and $2020$, we found that a proposed architecture (ConvLSTM + Time-LSTM + U-Net) forecasts volcanic temperature imagery with the lowest RMSE ($4.164^{\circ}$C, other methods: $4.217-5.291^{\circ}$C). Additionally, we examined performance on multiple time series derived from the thermal imagery and the effect of training with data from singular volcanoes. Ultimately, we found that models with the lowest RMSE on forecasting imagery did not possess the lowest RMSE on recreating time series derived from that imagery and that training with individual volcanoes generally worsened performance relative to a multi-volcano data set. This work highlights the potential of data-driven deep learning models for volcanic unrest forecasting while revealing the need for carefully constructed optimization targets.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Weather Analogs with a Machine Learning Similarity Metric for Renewable Resource Forecasting

The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique has been shown effective on several weather problems. Unlike previous weather analogs that are sought within a large spatial domain and an extended temporal window, AnEn strictly confines space and time, and independently generates results at each grid point within a short time window. AnEn can find similar forecasts that lead to accurate and calibrated ensemble forecasts. The central core of the AnEn technique is a similarity metric that sorts historical forecasts with respect to a new target prediction. A commonly used metric is Euclidean distance. However, a significant difficulty using this metric is the definition of the weights for all the parameters. Generally, feature selection and extensive weight search are needed. This paper proposes a novel definition of weather analogs through a Machine Learning (ML) based similarity metric. The similarity metric uses neural networks that are trained and instantiated to search for weather analogs. This new metric allows incorporating all variables without requiring a prior feature selection and weight optimization. Experiments are presented on the application of this new metric to forecast wind speed and solar irradiance. Results show that the ML metric generally outperforms the original metric. The ML metric has a better capability to correct for larger errors and to take advantage of a larger search repository. Spatial predictions using a learned metric also show the ability to define effective latent features that are transferable to other locations.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Internet of Things (IoT) for localized surface temperature forecasting in an urban environment

The rising temperature is one of the key indicators of a warming climate, and it can cause extensive stress to biological systems as well as built structures. Due to the heat island effect, it is most severe in urban environments compared to other landscapes due to the decrease in vegetation associated with a dense human-built environment. It is essential to adequately monitor the local temperature dynamics to mitigate risks associated with increasing temperatures, which can include short term strategy to protect people and animals, to long term strategy to how to build a new structure and cope with extreme events. Observed temperature is also a very important input for atmospheric models, and accurate data can lead to better future forecasts. Ambient temperature collected at ground level can have a higher variability when compared to regional weather forecasts, which fail to capture the local dynamics. There remains a clear need for an accurate air temperature prediction at the sub-urban scale at high temporal and spatial resolution. This research proposed a framework based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning network to generate day-ahead hourly temperature forecast with high spatial resolution. A case study is shown which uses historical in-situ observations and Internet of Things (IoT) observations for New York City, USA. By leveraging the historical air temperature data from in-situ observations, the LSTM model can be exposed to more historical patterns that might not be present in the IoT observations. Meanwhile, by using IoT observations, the spatial resolution of air temperature predictions is significantly improved.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Changes in air quality and human mobility in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic

The first goal of this study is to quantify the magnitude and spatial variability of air quality changes in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on two federally regulated pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Observed concentrations at all available ground monitoring sites (240 and 480 for NO2 and PM2.5, respectively) were compared between April 2020 and April of the prior five years, 2015-2019, as the baseline. Large statistically significant decreases in NO2 concentrations were found at more than 65% of the monitoring sites, with an average drop of 2 ppb when compared to the mean of the previous five years. The same patterns are confirmed by satellite-derived NO2 column totals from NASA OMI. PM2.5 concentrations from the ground monitoring sites, however, were more likely to be higher. The second goal of this study is to explain the different responses of the two pollutants during the COVID-19 pandemic. The hypothesis put forward is that the shelter-in-place measures affected peoples' driving patterns most dramatically, thus passenger vehicle NO2 emissions were reduced. Commercial vehicles and electricity demand for all purposes remained relatively unchanged, thus PM2.5 concentrations did not drop significantly. To establish a correlation between the observed NO2 changes and the extent to which people were sheltering in place, we use a mobility index, which was produced and made public by Descartes Labs. This mobility index aggregates cell phone usage at the county level to capture changes in human movement over time. We found a strong correlation between the observed decreases in NO2 concentrations and decreases in human mobility. By contrast, no discernible pattern was detected between mobility and PM2.5 concentrations changes, suggesting that decreases in personal-vehicle traffic alone may not be effective at reducing PM2.5 pollution.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Probabilistic Forecasting using Deep Generative Models

The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method tries to estimate the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere with a set of past observations that correspond to the best analogs of a deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This model post-processing method has been successfully used to improve the forecast accuracy for several weather-related applications including air quality, and short-term wind and solar power forecasting, to name a few. In order to provide a meaningful probabilistic forecast, the AnEn method requires storing a historical set of past predictions and observations in memory for a period of at least several months and spanning the seasons relevant for the prediction of interest. Although the memory and computing costs of the AnEn method are less expensive than using a brute-force dynamical ensemble approach, for a large number of stations and large datasets, the amount of memory required for AnEn can easily become prohibitive. Furthermore, in order to find the best analogs associated with a certain prediction produced by a NWP model, the current approach requires searching over the entire dataset by applying a certain metric. This approach requires applying the metric over the entire historical dataset, which may take a substantial amount of time. In this work, we investigate an alternative way to implement the AnEn method using deep generative models. By doing so, a generative model can entirely or partially replace the dataset of pairs of predictions and observations, reducing the amount of memory required to produce the probabilistic forecast by several orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the generative model can generate a meaningful set of analogs associated with a certain forecast in constant time without performing any search, saving a considerable amount of time even in the presence of huge historical datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Harnessing the Power of Many: Extensible Toolkit for Scalable Ensemble Applications

Many scientific problems require multiple distinct computational tasks to be executed in order to achieve a desired solution. We introduce the Ensemble Toolkit (EnTK) to address the challenges of scale, diversity and reliability they pose. We describe the design and implementation of EnTK, characterize its performance and integrate it with two distinct exemplar use cases: seismic inversion and adaptive analog ensembles. We perform nine experiments, characterizing EnTK overheads, strong and weak scalability, and the performance of two use case implementations, at scale and on production infrastructures. We show how EnTK meets the following general requirements: (i) implementing dedicated abstractions to support the description and execution of ensemble applications; (ii) support for execution on heterogeneous computing infrastructures; (iii) efficient scalability up to O(10^4) tasks; and (iv) fault tolerance. We discuss novel computational capabilities that EnTK enables and the scientific advantages arising thereof. We propose EnTK as an important addition to the suite of tools in support of production scientific computing.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2005

Anomalous Gulf Heating and Hurricane Katrinas Rapid Intensification

Global warming due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases has become a great concern and has been linked to increased hurricane activity associated with higher sea surface temperatures with conflicting views. Our observational results based on long term trends of sea surface temperatures reveal that the anomaly reached a record 0.8 C in the Gulf of Mexico in August 2005 as compared to previous years and may have been responsible for the intensification of the devastating Hurricane Katrina into a category 5 hurricane that hit the Southern coast of United States severely impacting the low lying city of New Orleans and the surrounding areas. In most intensifying storms, air-sea interaction is the major contributing factor and here we show how air-sea interactions might have affected Katrinas rapid intensification in the Gulf.

physics.ao-ph↗