arXiv2025
We introduce an affine invariant Langevin dynamics (ALDI) framework for the efficient estimation of rare events in nonlinear dynamical systems. Rare events are formulated as Bayesian inverse problems through a nonsmooth limit-state function whose zero level set characterises the event of interest. To overcome the nondifferentiability of this function, we propose a smooth approximation that preserves the failure set and yields a posterior distribution satisfying the small-noise limit. The resulting potential is sampled by ALDI, a (derivative-free) interacting particle system whose affine invariance allows it to adapt to the local anisotropy of the posterior. We demonstrate the performance of the method across a hierarchy of benchmarks, namely two low-dimensional examples (an algebraic problem with convex geometry and a dynamical problem of saddle-type instability) and a point-vortex model for atmospheric blockings. In all cases, ALDI concentrates near the relevant near-critical sets and provides accurate proposal distributions for self-normalised importance sampling. The framework is computationally robust, potentially gradient-free, and well-suited for complex forward models with strong geometric anisotropy. These results highlight ALDI as a promising tool for rare-event estimation in unstable regimes of dynamical systems.