arXiv subjects

Guoxuan Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Guoxuan Ma.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Development of COVID-19 Booster Vaccine Policy by Microsimulation and Q-learning

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgent need for effective vaccine policies, but traditional clinical trials often lack sufficient data to capture the diverse population characteristics necessary for comprehensive public health strategies. Ethical concerns around randomized trials during a pandemic further complicate policy development for public health. Reinforcement Learning (RL) offers a promising alternative for vaccine policy development. However, direct online RL exploration in real-world scenarios can result in suboptimal and potentially harmful decisions. This study proposes a novel framework combining tabular Q-learning with microsimulation, where a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) serves as a digital twin environment simulator of the target population. This digital twin captures temporal associations between infection and patient characteristics to generate realistic individual disease trajectories, enabling safe and efficient policy learning without real-world interaction. Our tabular Q-learning model produces an interpretable policy table that balances the risks of severe infection against vaccination side effects. Applied to COVID-19 booster policies, the learned Q-learning-based policy outperforms current practices, offering a path toward more effective vaccination strategies. A project webpage introducing our work, including links to the software, a brief introductory video, and a step-by-step tutorial video, is available at https://public.websites.umich.edu/~jiankang/software/dtpl_website_umich/index.html.

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arXiv2026

Sparse Bayesian Modeling of EEG Channel Interactions Improves P300 Brain-Computer Interface Performance

Electroencephalography (EEG)-based P300 brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) enable communication without physical movement by detecting stimulus-evoked neural responses. Accurate and efficient decoding remains challenging due to high dimensionality, temporal dependence, and complex interactions across EEG channels. Most existing approaches treat channels independently or rely on black-box machine learning models, limiting interpretability and personalization. We propose a sparse Bayesian time-varying regression framework that explicitly models pairwise EEG channel interactions while performing automatic temporal feature selection. The model employs a relaxed-thresholded Gaussian process prior to induce structured sparsity in both channel-specific and interaction effects, enabling interpretable identification of task-relevant channels and channel pairs. Applied to a publicly available P300 speller dataset of 55 participants, the proposed method achieves a median character-level accuracy of 100\% using all stimulus sequences and attains the highest overall decoding performance among competing statistical and deep learning approaches. Incorporating channel interactions yields subgroup-specific gains of up to 7\% in character-level accuracy, particularly among participants who abstained from alcohol (up to 18\% improvement). Importantly, the proposed method improves median BCI-Utility by approximately 10\% at its optimal operating point, achieving peak throughput after only seven stimulus sequences. These results demonstrate that explicitly modeling structured EEG channel interactions within a principled Bayesian framework enhances predictive accuracy, improves user-centric throughput, and supports personalization in P300 BCI systems.

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arXiv2025

Bayesian Image-on-Image Regression via Deep Kernel Learning based Gaussian Processes

In neuroimaging studies, it becomes increasingly important to study associations between different imaging modalities using image-on-image regression (IIR), which faces challenges in interpretation, statistical inference, and prediction. Our motivating problem is how to predict task-evoked fMRI activity using resting-state fMRI data in the Human Connectome Project (HCP). The main difficulty lies in effectively combining different types of imaging predictors with varying resolutions and spatial domains in IIR. To address these issues, we develop Bayesian Image-on-image Regression via Deep Kernel Learning Gaussian Processes (BIRD-GP) and develop efficient posterior computation methods through Stein variational gradient descent. We demonstrate the advantages of BIRD-GP over state-of-the-art IIR methods using simulations. For HCP data analysis using BIRD-GP, we combine the voxel-wise fALFF maps and region-wise connectivity matrices to predict fMRI contrast maps for language and social recognition tasks. We show that fALFF is less predictive than the connectivity matrix for both tasks, but combining both yields improved results. Angular Gyrus Right emerges as the most predictable region for the language task (75.9% predictable voxels), while Superior Parietal Gyrus Right tops for the social recognition task (48.9% predictable voxels). Additionally, we identify features from the resting-state fMRI data that are important for task fMRI prediction.

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arXiv2025

Scalable Bayesian inference for heat kernel Gaussian processes on manifolds

We establish a scalable manifold learning method and theory, motivated by the problem of estimating fMRI activation manifolds in the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our primary contribution is the development of an efficient estimation technique for heat kernel Gaussian processes in the exponential family model. This approach handles large sample sizes $n$, preserves the intrinsic geometry of data, and significantly reduces computational complexity from $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ to $\mathcal{O}(n)$ via a novel reduced-rank approximation of the graph Laplacian's transition matrix and a Truncated Singular Value Decomposition for the eigenpair computation. The numerical experiments demonstrate the scalability and improved accuracy of our method for manifold learning tasks involving complex large-scale data.

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arXiv2024

Bayesian Functional Analysis for Untargeted Metabolomics Data with Matching Uncertainty and Small Sample Sizes

Untargeted metabolomics based on liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry technology is quickly gaining widespread application given its ability to depict the global metabolic pattern in biological samples. However, the data is noisy and plagued by the lack of clear identity of data features measured from samples. Multiple potential matchings exist between data features and known metabolites, while the truth can only be one-to-one matches. Some existing methods attempt to reduce the matching uncertainty, but are far from being able to remove the uncertainty for most features. The existence of the uncertainty causes major difficulty in downstream functional analysis. To address these issues, we develop a novel approach for Bayesian Analysis of Untargeted Metabolomics data (BAUM) to integrate previously separate tasks into a single framework, including matching uncertainty inference, metabolite selection, and functional analysis. By incorporating the knowledge graph between variables and using relatively simple assumptions, BAUM can analyze datasets with small sample sizes. By allowing different confidence levels of feature-metabolite matching, the method is applicable to datasets in which feature identities are partially known. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with other existing methods, BAUM achieves better accuracy in selecting important metabolites that tend to be functionally consistent and assigning confidence scores to feature-metabolite matches. We analyze a COVID-19 metabolomics dataset and a mouse brain metabolomics dataset using BAUM. Even with a very small sample size of 16 mice per group, BAUM is robust and stable. It finds pathways that conform to existing knowledge, as well as novel pathways that are biologically plausible.

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