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Gurjeet Jagwani

Publications and source records attributed to Gurjeet Jagwani.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

pop-cosmos: Redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically-motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU-accelerated MCMC sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim\!185,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to DESI DR1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times10^{-3}$), scatter ($σ_{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2%) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times10^{-2}$, $σ_{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0% outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7% of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37% implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out-of-sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗

pop-cosmos: Disentangling galaxy properties from observables using data-driven approaches

The physical processes that shape a galaxy's spectrum are strongly degenerate in observations, obscuring which processes act independently. Leveraging the pop-cosmos generative galaxy population model, we investigate how many independent degrees of freedom the rest-frame optical SED contains. We use a $β$-variational autoencoder (VAE) to compress a 16-parameter stellar population synthesis (SPS) description into a disentangled latent representation interpreted through mutual information (MI). We find that five independent dimensions suffice, corresponding to stellar mass, recent star formation, dust, and two degrees of freedom in the ionization state of the gas. Stellar metallicity and stellar age are not among these primary drivers; their spectral effects are distributed across the others rather than independently encoded. By tying each dimension to specific spectral features, this decomposition breaks the star-formation--dust--metallicity degeneracies that limit broadband photometry, and recovers the physical conditions of the gas in typical star-forming galaxies more cleanly than the line-ratio diagnostics in standard use.

astro-ph.GA↗

pop-cosmos: Galaxy size evolution across structural and star-formation classifications in COSMOS-Web

Galaxy sizes are correlated with stellar mass and redshift, as characterised by size scaling relations. The inferred forms of these scaling relations are sensitive to how galaxies are classified -- either by their star formation activity (e.g. specific star-formation rate, sSFR) or by their morphology markers (e.g. bulge-to-total ratio, Sérsic index). We combine stellar mass and sSFR estimates from pop-cosmos (a generative model trained on COSMOS2020 Spitzer IRAC $\textit{Ch.1} <26$) with size and morphology measurements from COSMOS-Web, obtaining $99,369$ galaxies. By investigating the size-mass and the size-redshift relations, we show that: (i) the sSFR/morphology splits give quantitatively different slopes, intercepts, and intrinsic scatter behaviour; (ii) intrinsic scatter depends on structural morphology but not on sSFR, which constrains the galaxy-halo connection; (iii) the quiescent and bulge-dominated size-mass relations both show double-power law breaks, but at different pivot masses, indicating that quenching and structural transformation occur on different time-scales; (iv) the morphology-dependent trends are only recoverable from space-based imaging. Further, the quiescent pivot mass $M_{\ast} \sim 10^{10.7}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ coincides with the mass scale at which AGN (infrared torus) bolometric luminosity fraction peaks in transitioning galaxies, while the bulge-dominated pivot mass $M_{\ast} \sim 10^{11.1}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ coincides with the halo mass at which AGN-driven baryonic redistribution peaks, tracing the interval over which AGN feedback ramps from quenching onset to structural transformation.

astro-ph.GA↗

Rapid and robust simulation-based inference for kilonovae

With the next generation of both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observatories beginning to come online, rapid analysis methods for kilonova data are becoming increasingly important in astronomy. Traditional Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is time-consuming and relies on explicit likelihood approximations that can break down when modeling uncertainties are significant. We develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for kilonova parameter estimation using density-estimation likelihood-free inference. The framework uses a Gaussian process emulator trained on $\sim 1300$ POSSIS simulations. We demonstrate that SBI provides a rapid alternative to MCMC that is robust to likelihood misspecification. The standard Gaussian likelihood approximation fails to capture the non-Gaussian, correlated structure of emulator uncertainty; SBI learns this structure directly from forward simulations. Simulation studies show that the SBI method accurately recovers injected parameters, while the MCMC suffers from systematic bias caused by likelihood misspecification. This problem persists when analyzing AT2017gfo, where a subset of the MCMC posteriors pile up at prior boundaries and the SBI posteriors do not. The SBI framework infers a total ejecta mass of $\sim 0.087 M_{\odot}$ dominated by lanthanide-poor ejecta and excludes toroidal and peanut ejecta geometries at the 99th percentile for both components. The SBI framework generates $\sim 2 \times 10^{4}$ posterior samples in seconds.

astro-ph.IM↗

StAD: Stein Amortized Divergence for Fast Likelihoods with Diffusion and Flow

Diffusion and flow-based models are ubiquitously used for generative modelling and density estimation. They admit a deterministic probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE), analogous to continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which describes the transport of the probability mass. Obtaining the likelihood from these models is of interest to many workflows, especially Bayesian analysis, and requires solving the trace of the Jacobian to compute the divergence of the learned PF-ODE, which is either $\mathcal{O}(D^2)$ to compute exactly or $\mathcal{O}(D)$ with a noisy estimate. We introduce StAD, a new distillation method to predict and learn the divergence of the PF-ODE using the Langevin-Stein operator without ever computing the Jacobian. We show that our method is competitive with the Hutchinson and Hutch++ on CIFAR-10, ImageNet and other density estimation tasks, consistently improving the variance and speed of the likelihood predictions compared to the Hutchinson. We additionally show our method will generalize to a varied class of generative models, and show that under some regularity conditions these learned vector fields can be made to satisfy the Stein class.

stat.ML↗

pop-cosmos: Star formation over 12 Gyr from generative modelling of a deep infrared-selected galaxy catalogue

We study star formation over 12 Gyr using pop-cosmos, a generative model trained on 26-band photometry of 420,000 COSMOS2020 galaxies (IRAC Ch.1 $<26$). The model learns distributions over 16 SPS parameters via score-based diffusion, matching observed colours and magnitudes. We compute the star formation rate density (SFRD) to $z=3.5$ by directly integrating individual galaxy SFRs. The SFRD peaks at $z=1.3\pm0.1$, with peak value $0.08\pm0.01$ M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-3}$. We classify star-forming (SF) and quiescent (Q) galaxies using specific SFR $<10^{-11}$ yr$^{-1}$, comparing with $NUVrJ$ colour selection. The sSFR criterion yields up to 20% smaller quiescent fractions across $0 0.95$) during the most recent $\sim$300 Myr, then sharp decorrelation with earlier star-forming epochs, marking clear quenching transitions. Massive ($10<\log_{10}(M_*/$M$_{\odot})<11$) galaxies quench on a time-scale of $\sim1$ Gyr, with mass assembly concentrated in their first 3.5 Gyr. Finally, AGN activity (infrared luminosity) peaks as massive ($\sim10^{10.5}$ M$_\odot$) galaxies approach the transition between star-forming and quiescent states, declining sharply once quiescence is established. This provides evidence that AGN feedback operates in a critical regime during the $\sim1$ Gyr quenching transition.

astro-ph.GA↗

pop-cosmos: Forward modeling KiDS-1000 redshift distributions using realistic galaxy populations

The accuracy of the cosmological constraints from Stage~IV galaxy surveys will be limited by how well the galaxy redshift distributions can be inferred. We have addressed this challenging problem for the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) cosmic shear sample by developing a forward-modeling framework with two main ingredients: (1) the \texttt{pop-cosmos} generative model for the evolving galaxy population, calibrated on \textit{Spitzer} IRAC $\textit{Ch.\,1}<26$ galaxies from COSMOS2020; and (2) a data model for noise and selection, machine-learned from the SURFS-based KiDS-Legacy-Like Simulations (SKiLLS). Applying KiDS tomographic binning to our synthetic photometric data, we infer redshift distributions in each of five bins directly from the population and data models, bypassing the need for spectroscopic reweighting. Keeping the data model fixed, we compare results using two different galaxy population models: \texttt{pop-cosmos}; and \texttt{shark}, the semi-analytic galaxy formation model used in SKiLLS. In the first ($0.1<z<0.3$) and last ($0.9<z<1.2$) tomographic bins we find systematic differences in the mean redshifts of $Δz\sim0.05$-$0.1$, comparable to the reported uncertainties from spectroscopic reweighting methods. This work paves the way for accurate redshift distribution calibration for Stage~IV surveys directly through forward modeling, thus providing an independent cross-check on spectroscopic-based calibrations which avoids their selection biases and incompleteness. We will use the \texttt{pop-cosmos} redshift distributions in an upcoming full KiDS cosmology reanalysis.

astro-ph.CO↗

pop-cosmos: Insights from generative modeling of a deep, infrared-selected galaxy population

We present an extension of the pop-cosmos model for the evolving galaxy population up to redshift $z\sim6$. The model is trained on distributions of observed colors and magnitudes, from 26-band photometry of $\sim420,000$ galaxies in the COSMOS2020 catalog with Spitzer IRAC $\textit{Ch. 1}<26$. The generative model includes a flexible distribution over 16 stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameters, and a depth-dependent photometric uncertainty model, both represented using score-based diffusion models. We use the trained model to predict scaling relationships for the galaxy population, such as the stellar mass function, star-forming main sequence, and gas-phase and stellar metallicity vs. mass relations, demonstrating reasonable-to-excellent agreement with previously published results. We explore the connection between mid-infrared emission from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star-formation rate, finding high AGN activity for galaxies above the star-forming main sequence at $1\lesssim z\lesssim 2$. Using the trained population model as a prior distribution, we perform inference of the redshifts and SPS parameters for 429,669 COSMOS2020 galaxies, including 39,588 with publicly available spectroscopic redshifts. The resulting redshift estimates exhibit minimal bias ($\text{median}[Δ_z]=-8\times10^{-4}$), scatter ($σ_\text{MAD}=0.0132$), and outlier fraction ($6.19\%$) for the full $0<z<6$ spectroscopic compilation. These results establish that pop-cosmos can achieve the accuracy and realism needed to forward-model modern wide--deep surveys for Stage IV cosmology. We publicly release pop-cosmos software, mock galaxy catalogs, and COSMOS2020 redshift and SPS parameter posteriors.

astro-ph.GA↗