arXiv subjects

Gustau Camps-Valls

Publications and source records attributed to Gustau Camps-Valls.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cryo-Bench: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Cryosphere Mapping

Geo-Foundation Models (GFMs) have been evaluated across diverse Earth observation tasks and domains, showing strong potential to produce reliable maps even with sparse labels. However, systematic benchmarking of GFMs for Cryosphere applications remains limited, primarily because suitable evaluation datasets are scarce. We address this gap by introducing Cryo-Bench, a benchmark comprising six semantic segmentation datasets covering five cryospheric components: supraglacial debris, glacial lakes under two sensing configurations, sea ice, calving fronts and Antarctic ice-shelf extent. The benchmark includes multispectral, RGB, and synthetic aperture radar observations from regions underrepresented in existing pretraining archives. We evaluate thirteen GFMs alongside U-Net and Vision Transformer baselines trained from scratch under a unified evaluation protocol. With frozen encoders, the U-Net achieves the highest six-dataset average mean intersection over union (mIoU) of 69.31\%, exceeding TerraMind (67.86\%) by 1.45 points. The paired difference has a 95\% confidence interval of [+0.94, +1.98], indicating that the U-Net's lead is statistically significant. In contrast, learning-rate optimization substantially improves fine-tuning performance: DOFA reaches 93.97\% mIoU on the RGB glacial lake task, ranking the U-Net fourth, while Scale-MAE and GFM-Swin surpass U-Net on calving fronts. Averaged across all six datasets, four GFMs, TerraMind, GFM-Swin, DOFA, and Scale-MAE, exceed the U-Net baseline (69.31\%). In the few-shot setting, five GFMs, DOFA, RemoteCLIP, TerraMind, GFM-Swin, and Scale-MAE, likewise outperform U-Net; averaged across all thirteen GFMs, retention is 92.5\% of full-label accuracy compared with 86.1\% for U-Net.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Credit Access is Associated with Improved Food Security in the Horn of Africa

The intensification of climate change poses a growing threat to food security, especially in vulnerable communities. This study employs an observational machine-learning framework to estimate the causal association between access to credit and acute food insecurity in Somalia and across the Horn of Africa, drawing on a harmonized dataset spanning key environmental, socioeconomic, and conflict-related factors from 2015 to 2022. Results indicate that greater credit access is associated with a 2% reduction in acute food insecurity at the population level over the study period. Given that, on average, 16% of the population is in crisis, this effect represents a meaningful shift within the at-risk group. We interpret these estimates under explicit identification assumptions and complement them with robustness and refutation tests. The results provide context-specific evidence on how financial access correlates with food security outcomes in data-scarce, crisis-affected settings, and offer a transparent framework for integrating heterogeneous data sources when randomized evaluations are infeasible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Climate Variability Modulates the Impact of Price Spikes on Food Insecurity

Climate variability influences whether a market disruption escalates into a food crisis, yet broad climate patterns like El Niño, tracked months before they alter hydro-climatic conditions, are still not incorporated as an early-warning component in food-security responses. We address this gap by introducing sensitivity regimes, a stratification of regions by the direction and strength of their vegetation response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and using them to estimate how food price spikes affect acute food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa. Integrating remote sensing, socioeconomic data, and causal machine learning, we find that in regions where ENSO systematically suppresses vegetation, a price spike raises the share of the population at acute risk by 5.4 percentage points in the following month. In regions where vegetation is unaffected by or positively linked to ENSO, the estimated effect is smaller (around 2 percentage points) and statistically insignificant. These results demonstrate that climate context is critical for understanding food security vulnerabilities. Sensitivity regimes can be combined with operational price-spike triggers to stage anticipatory action: the ENSO state flags vulnerable regions months ahead, and a pre-positioned response in those regions to a price spike would avert the largest jump in acute food insecurity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Optimization Geometry of Equivalent Brownian RKHS Representations

Equivalent finite parameterizations can represent the same functions and intrinsic norm yet induce different optimization algorithms. We study this effect in a controlled finite Brownian RKHS with nodal, increment, and spectral coordinates. Classical finite-element, RKHS-interpolation, Brownian-covariance, and mixed-boundary DCT identities make the shared hypothesis class, Brownian energy, approximation operator, and coordinate maps explicit. Our main results concern the optimization geometry of this fixed model. With mapped initialization, identical scalar steps, and identical minibatches, nodal and spectral GD/SGD have exactly the same mapped trajectories. Increment GD is an explicit Euler step for the constant Brownian/Sobolev metric, with factor $1/h$. For Brownian-regularized least squares, $κ_2(\mathbf H_{\mathrm{inc}})\le1+A/ρ$, independently of grid resolution $G$ for fixed $A$, $ρ>0$, and the stated normalization. Under the stated standard-Adam convention, the universal orthogonal equivariance group is exactly the signed permutations; the block DCT-VIII transform is not one. Float64 tests over five grids numerically verify the finite identities, mapped one-layer and recursive trajectories, conditioning predictions, and theorem-matched Adam separation. Thus coordinate effects are isolated without changing the represented functions, intrinsic regularizer, or approximation space.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Disentangling Forced and Internal Climate Variability in Single Realizations using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control

We show that a single climate realization can be decomposed into forced and internal components by treating external forcing as a dynamical driver within a linear stochastic system, an idea grounded in pullback attractor theory. In doing so, we address a central methodological challenge in climate science with direct implications for climate projection and the detection and attribution of the forced response, disentangling the forced climate response from internal variability in a single observed record. Statistical methods range from approaches trained on large ensembles to techniques operating on single realizations. The latter often rely on linear frameworks such as linear inverse models (LIMs) and linear regression. LIMs ignore forcing predictors, whereas linear regression omits climate system dynamics. Here we introduce PullbackDMDc, a method grounded in non-autonomous dynamical systems theory and dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc), incorporating pullback attractor estimation to decompose a single climate realization into spatial modes and their associated forced and internal components, yielding a physically interpretable picture of the underlying dynamics. We illustrate the utility of PullbackDMDc for Earth System Model (ESM) evaluation by applying it to near-surface air temperature and sea-level pressure from reanalysis and four ESM large ensembles. PullbackDMDc estimates the forced response with skill matching or exceeding established baselines and identifies optimal forcing predictors against model-based ground truth. Its internal variability components reveal that ESMs qualitatively capture interannual and decadal modes while exhibiting systematic differences relative to each other and to observations. Skillful forced response estimation and a novel decomposition position PullbackDMDc as a practical tool for single-realization climate analysis and ESM evaluation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Thalia: A Global, Multi-Modal Dataset for Volcanic Activity Monitoring

Monitoring volcanic activity is of paramount importance to safeguarding lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems. However, only a small fraction of known volcanoes are continuously monitored. Satellite-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) enables systematic, global-scale deformation monitoring. However, its complex data challenge traditional remote sensing methods. Deep learning offers a powerful means to automate and enhance InSAR interpretation, advancing volcanology and geohazard assessment. Despite its promise, progress has been limited by the scarcity of well-curated datasets. In this work, we build on the existing Hephaestus dataset and introduce Thalia, addressing crucial limitations and enriching its scope with higher-resolution, multi-source, and multi-temporal data. Thalia is a global collection of 38 spatiotemporal datacubes covering 7 years and integrating InSAR products, topographic data, as well as atmospheric variables, known to introduce signal delays that can mimic ground deformation in InSAR imagery. Each sample includes expert annotations detailing the type, intensity, and extent of deformation, accompanied by descriptive text. To enable fair and consistent evaluation, we provide a comprehensive benchmark using state-of-the-art models for classification and segmentation. This work fosters collaboration between machine learning and Earth science, advancing volcanic monitoring and promoting data-driven approaches in geoscience. See https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/Thalia

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Wildfire Danger Forecasting

Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems. The growing risk of wildfires increases the demand for forecasting models that are not only accurate but also reliable. Deep Learning (DL) has shown promise in predicting wildfire danger; however, its adoption is hindered by concerns over the reliability of its predictions, some of which stem from the lack of uncertainty quantification. To address this challenge, we present an uncertainty-aware DL framework that jointly captures epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty to enhance short-term wildfire danger forecasting. In the next-day forecasting, our best-performing model improves the F1 Score by 2.3% and reduces the Expected Calibration Error by 2.1% compared to a deterministic baseline, enhancing both predictive skill and calibration. Our experiments confirm the reliability of the uncertainty estimates and illustrate their practical utility for decision support, including the identification of uncertainty thresholds for rejecting low-confidence predictions and the generation of well-calibrated wildfire danger maps with accompanying uncertainty layers. Extending the forecast horizon up to ten days, we observe that aleatoric uncertainty increases with time, showing greater variability in environmental conditions, while epistemic uncertainty remains stable. Finally, we show that although the two uncertainty types may be redundant in low-uncertainty cases, they provide complementary insights under more challenging conditions, underscoring the value of their joint modeling for robust wildfire danger prediction. In summary, our approach significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of wildfire danger forecasting, advancing the development of trustworthy wildfire DL systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Geospatial Foundation Models to Enable Progress on Sustainable Development Goals

Foundation Models (FMs) are large-scale, pre-trained artificial intelligence (AI) systems that have revolutionized natural language processing and computer vision, and are now advancing geospatial analysis and Earth Observation (EO). They promise improved generalization across tasks, scalability, and efficient adaptation with minimal labeled data. However, despite the rapid proliferation of geospatial FMs, their real-world utility and alignment with global sustainability goals remain underexplored. We introduce SustainFM, a comprehensive benchmarking framework grounded in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals with extremely diverse tasks ranging from asset wealth prediction to environmental hazard detection. This study provides a rigorous, interdisciplinary assessment of geospatial FMs and offers critical insights into their role in attaining sustainability goals. Our findings show: (1) While not universally superior, FMs often outperform traditional approaches across diverse tasks and datasets. (2) Evaluating FMs should go beyond accuracy to include transferability, generalization, and energy efficiency as key criteria for their responsible use. (3) FMs enable scalable, SDG-grounded solutions, offering broad utility for tackling complex sustainability challenges. Critically, we advocate for a paradigm shift from model-centric development to impact-driven deployment, and emphasize metrics such as energy efficiency, robustness to domain shifts, and ethical considerations.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Feature Extraction in the Remote Sensing Data Value Chain: A Systematic Review of Methods and Applications

Earth observation involves collecting, analyzing, and processing an ever-growing mass of data. This planetary data is crucial for addressing relevant societal, economic, and environmental challenges, ranging from environmental monitoring to urban planning and disaster management. However, its high dimensionality entails significant feature redundancy and computational overhead, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning models. Feature extraction (FE) techniques address these challenges by preserving essential data properties while reducing redundancy and enhancing tasks in Remote Sensing (RS). The landscape of FE for RS is diverse, disorganized, and rapidly evolving. We offer a practical guide for this landscape by introducing a framework of FE. Using this framework, we trace the evolution of FE across the data value chain in RS. Finally, we synthesize these trends and offer perspectives for the future of FE in RS by first characterizing this shift from single-task models to unified representations, then identifying two perspectives in the foundation model era: the need for robust and interpretable FE and the potential of bridging classical FE with modern representation learning.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Foundation Models in Remote Sensing: Evolving from Unimodality to Multimodality

Remote sensing (RS) techniques are increasingly crucial for deepening our understanding of the planet. As the volume and diversity of RS data continue to grow exponentially, there is an urgent need for advanced data modeling and understanding capabilities to manage and interpret these vast datasets effectively. Foundation models present significant new growth opportunities and immense potential to revolutionize the RS field. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive technical survey on foundation models in RS, offering a brand-new perspective by exploring their evolution from unimodality to multimodality. We hope this work serves as a valuable entry point for researchers interested in both foundation models and RS and helps them launch new projects or explore new research topics in this rapidly evolving area. This survey addresses the following three key questions: What are foundation models in RS? Why are foundation models needed in RS? How can we effectively guide junior researchers in gaining a comprehensive and practical understanding of foundation models in RS applications? More specifically, we begin by outlining the background and motivation, emphasizing the importance of foundation models in RS. We then review existing foundation models in RS, systematically categorizing them into unimodal and multimodal approaches. Additionally, we provide a tutorial-like section to guide researchers, especially beginners, on how to train foundation models in RS and apply them to real-world tasks. The survey aims to equip researchers in RS with a deeper and more efficient understanding of foundation models, enabling them to get started easily and effectively apply these models across various RS applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

TeleViT1.0: Teleconnection-aware Vision Transformers for Subseasonal to Seasonal Wildfire Pattern Forecasts

Forecasting wildfires weeks to months in advance is difficult, yet crucial for planning fuel treatments and allocating resources. While short-term predictions typically rely on local weather conditions, long-term forecasting requires accounting for the Earth's interconnectedness, including global patterns and teleconnections. We introduce TeleViT, a Teleconnection-aware Vision Transformer that integrates (i) fine-scale local fire drivers, (ii) coarsened global fields, and (iii) teleconnection indices. This multi-scale fusion is achieved through an asymmetric tokenization strategy that produces heterogeneous tokens processed jointly by a transformer encoder, followed by a decoder that preserves spatial structure by mapping local tokens to their corresponding prediction patches. Using the global SeasFire dataset (2001-2021, 8-day resolution), TeleViT improves AUPRC performance over U-Net++, ViT, and climatology across all lead times, including horizons up to four months. At zero lead, TeleViT with indices and global inputs reaches AUPRC 0.630 (ViT 0.617, U-Net 0.620), at 16x8day lead (around 4 months), TeleViT variants using global input maintain 0.601-0.603 (ViT 0.582, U-Net 0.578), while surpassing the climatology (0.572) at all lead times. Regional results show the highest skill in seasonally consistent fire regimes, such as African savannas, and lower skill in boreal and arid regions. Attention and attribution analyses indicate that predictions rely mainly on local tokens, with global fields and indices contributing coarse contextual information. These findings suggest that architectures explicitly encoding large-scale Earth-system context can extend wildfire predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Physically consistent and uncertainty-aware learning of spatiotemporal dynamics

Accurate long-term forecasting of spatiotemporal dynamics remains a fundamental challenge across scientific and engineering domains. Existing machine learning methods often neglect governing physical laws and fail to quantify inherent uncertainties in spatiotemporal predictions. To address these challenges, we introduce a physics-consistent neural operator (PCNO) that enforces physical constraints by projecting surrogate model outputs onto function spaces satisfying predefined laws. A physics-consistent projection layer within PCNO efficiently computes mass and momentum conservation in Fourier space. Building upon deterministic predictions, we further propose a diffusion model-enhanced PCNO (DiffPCNO), which leverages a consistency model to quantify and mitigate uncertainties, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of forecasts. PCNO and DiffPCNO achieve high-fidelity spatiotemporal predictions while preserving physical consistency and uncertainty across diverse systems and spatial resolutions, ranging from turbulent flow modeling to real-world flood/atmospheric forecasting. Our two-stage framework provides a robust and versatile approach for accurate, physically grounded, and uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Neural Plasticity-Inspired Multimodal Foundation Model for Earth Observation

Earth observation (EO) in open-world settings presents a unique challenge: different applications rely on diverse sensor modalities, each with varying ground sampling distances, spectral ranges, and numbers of spectral bands. However, existing EO foundation models are typically tailored to specific sensor types, making them inflexible when generalizing across the heterogeneous landscape of EO data. To address this, we propose the Dynamic One-For-All (DOFA) model, a unified, multimodal foundation framework designed for diverse vision tasks in EO. Inspired by neural plasticity, DOFA utilizes a wavelength-conditioned dynamic hypernetwork to process inputs from five distinct satellite sensors flexibly. By continually pretraining on five EO modalities, DOFA achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple downstream tasks and generalizes well to unseen modalities. Enhanced with hybrid continual pretraining, DOFA+ requires significantly fewer computational resources while outperforming counterparts trained with extensive GPU budgets. Experiments on diverse datasets highlight DOFA's potential as a foundation for general-purpose vision models in the sensor-diverse EO domain. The code and pre-trained weights are publicly available at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/DOFA.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Staged Event Trees for Transparent Treatment Effect Estimation

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard estimators from randomized trials, numerous methods have been proposed to estimate treatment effects using observational data. In this paper, we provide a novel characterization of widely used causal inference techniques within the framework of staged event trees, demonstrating their capacity to enhance treatment effect estimation. These models offer a distinct advantage due to their interpretability, making them particularly valuable for practical applications. We implement classical estimators within the framework of staged event trees and illustrate their capabilities through both simulation studies and real-world applications. Furthermore, we showcase how staged event trees explicitly and visually describe when standard causal assumptions, such as positivity, hold, further enhancing their practical utility.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

On the Generalization of Representation Uncertainty in Earth Observation

Recent advances in Computer Vision have introduced the concept of pretrained representation uncertainty, enabling zero-shot uncertainty estimation. This holds significant potential for Earth Observation (EO), where trustworthiness is critical, yet the complexity of EO data poses challenges to uncertainty-aware methods. In this work, we investigate the generalization of representation uncertainty in EO, considering the domain's unique semantic characteristics. We pretrain uncertainties on large EO datasets and propose an evaluation framework to assess their zero-shot performance in multi-label classification and segmentation EO tasks. Our findings reveal that, unlike uncertainties pretrained on natural images, EO-pretraining exhibits strong generalization across unseen EO domains, geographic locations, and target granularities, while maintaining sensitivity to variations in ground sampling distance. We demonstrate the practical utility of pretrained uncertainties showcasing their alignment with task-specific uncertainties in downstream tasks, their sensitivity to real-world EO image noise, and their ability to generate spatial uncertainty estimates out-of-the-box. Initiating the discussion on representation uncertainty in EO, our study provides insights into its strengths and limitations, paving the way for future research in the field. Code and weights are available at: https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/EOUncertaintyGeneralization.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

A Flag Decomposition for Hierarchical Datasets

Flag manifolds encode nested sequences of subspaces and serve as powerful structures for various computer vision and machine learning applications. Despite their utility in tasks such as dimensionality reduction, motion averaging, and subspace clustering, current applications are often restricted to extracting flags using common matrix decomposition methods like the singular value decomposition. Here, we address the need for a general algorithm to factorize and work with hierarchical datasets. In particular, we propose a novel, flag-based method that decomposes arbitrary hierarchical real-valued data into a hierarchy-preserving flag representation in Stiefel coordinates. Our work harnesses the potential of flag manifolds in applications including denoising, clustering, and few-shot learning.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

A Collaborative Platform for Soil Organic Carbon Inference Based on Spatiotemporal Remote Sensing Data

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key indicator of soil health, fertility, and carbon sequestration, making it essential for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation. However, large-scale SOC monitoring remains challenging due to spatial variability, temporal dynamics, and multiple influencing factors. We present WALGREEN, a platform that enhances SOC inference by overcoming limitations of current applications. Leveraging machine learning and diverse soil samples, WALGREEN generates predictive models using historical public and private data. Built on cloud-based technologies, it offers a user-friendly interface for researchers, policymakers, and land managers to access carbon data, analyze trends, and support evidence-based decision-making. Implemented in Python, Java, and JavaScript, WALGREEN integrates Google Earth Engine and Sentinel Copernicus via scripting, OpenLayers, and Thymeleaf in a Model-View-Controller framework. This paper aims to advance soil science, promote sustainable agriculture, and drive critical ecosystem responses to climate change.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Probabilistic Machine Learning for Noisy Labels in Earth Observation

Label noise poses a significant challenge in Earth Observation (EO), often degrading the performance and reliability of supervised Machine Learning (ML) models. Yet, given the critical nature of several EO applications, developing robust and trustworthy ML solutions is essential. In this study, we take a step in this direction by leveraging probabilistic ML to model input-dependent label noise and quantify data uncertainty in EO tasks, accounting for the unique noise sources inherent in the domain. We train uncertainty-aware probabilistic models across a broad range of high-impact EO applications-spanning diverse noise sources, input modalities, and ML configurations-and introduce a dedicated pipeline to assess their accuracy and reliability. Our experimental results show that the uncertainty-aware models consistently outperform the standard deterministic approaches across most datasets and evaluation metrics. Moreover, through rigorous uncertainty evaluation, we validate the reliability of the predicted uncertainty estimates, enhancing the interpretability of model predictions. Our findings emphasize the importance of modeling label noise and incorporating uncertainty quantification in EO, paving the way for more accurate, reliable, and trustworthy ML solutions in the field.

cs.LG↗