arXiv subjects

Guy Shalev

Publications and source records attributed to Guy Shalev.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

WeatherNext 3: Increasing resolution and performance of global weather models with raw observations

State-of-the-art AI weather models have shown impressive medium-range forecast skill and computational efficiency, but suffer two key shortcomings: their forecasts have lower spatial and temporal resolution than the best physics-based models and they are exclusively initialized with and trained on analysis data. As a result, they cannot directly make use of observations, and any biases in the analysis are inherited by the forecast. WeatherNext 3 addresses these shortcomings and establishes a new state-of-the-art for probabilistic medium-range forecasting skill. First, WeatherNext 3 generates new forecasts every hour (rather than every 6 hours like traditional global models) by ingesting low-latency geostationary satellite data. Second, WeatherNext 3's temporal and spatial resolution are on par with physics-based global models, with hourly time steps and 0.1 degree resolution for single-level variables, including solar radiation and cloud cover. Third, WeatherNext 3 moves beyond traditional analysis variables by learning to predict satellite-derived precipitation estimates, as well as tropical cyclone and station observations. Modelling sparse station data allows WeatherNext 3 to make 2m temperature and dewpoint predictions at any location and time, conditioned on local geographical features, with substantially lower error than competing global models, even when evaluated against unseen stations. Together, WeatherNext 3's capabilities move operational AI-based weather forecasting beyond emulating the traditionally distinct stages of data assimilation, forecasting and post-processing, which helps to further push the frontier of performance and granularity for global weather prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Caravan MultiMet: Extending Caravan with Multiple Weather Nowcasts and Forecasts

The Caravan large-sample hydrology dataset (Kratzert et al., 2023) was created to standardize and harmonize streamflow data from various regional datasets, combined with globally available meteorological forcing and catchment attributes. This community-driven project also allows researchers to conveniently extend the dataset for additional basins, as done 6 times to date (see https://github.com/kratzert/Caravan/discussions/10). We present a novel extension to Caravan, focusing on enriching the meteorological forcing data. Our extension adds three precipitation nowcast products (CPC, IMERG v07 Early, and CHIRPS) and three weather forecast products (ECMWF IFS HRES, GraphCast, and CHIRPS-GEFS) to the existing ERA5-Land reanalysis data. The inclusion of diverse data sources, particularly weather forecasts, enables more robust evaluation and benchmarking of hydrological models, especially for real-time forecasting scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, this extension makes Caravan the first large-sample hydrology dataset to incorporate weather forecast data, significantly enhancing its capabilities and fostering advancements in hydrological research, benchmarking, and real-time hydrologic forecasting. The data is publicly available under a CC-BY-4.0 license on Zenodo in two parts (https://zenodo.org/records/14161235, https://zenodo.org/records/14161281) and on Google Cloud Platform (GCP) - see more under the Data Availability chapter.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

AI Increases Global Access to Reliable Flood Forecasts

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Using AI, we achieve reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a 5-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (0-day lead time) from a current state of the art global modeling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). Additionally, we achieve accuracies over 5-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over 1-year return period events. This means that AI can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed in this paper was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Flood forecasting with machine learning models in an operational framework

The operational flood forecasting system by Google was developed to provide accurate real-time flood warnings to agencies and the public, with a focus on riverine floods in large, gauged rivers. It became operational in 2018 and has since expanded geographically. This forecasting system consists of four subsystems: data validation, stage forecasting, inundation modeling, and alert distribution. Machine learning is used for two of the subsystems. Stage forecasting is modeled with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and the Linear models. Flood inundation is computed with the Thresholding and the Manifold models, where the former computes inundation extent and the latter computes both inundation extent and depth. The Manifold model, presented here for the first time, provides a machine-learning alternative to hydraulic modeling of flood inundation. When evaluated on historical data, all models achieve sufficiently high-performance metrics for operational use. The LSTM showed higher skills than the Linear model, while the Thresholding and Manifold models achieved similar performance metrics for modeling inundation extent. During the 2021 monsoon season, the flood warning system was operational in India and Bangladesh, covering flood-prone regions around rivers with a total area of 287,000 km2, home to more than 350M people. More than 100M flood alerts were sent to affected populations, to relevant authorities, and to emergency organizations. Current and future work on the system includes extending coverage to additional flood-prone locations, as well as improving modeling capabilities and accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

ML-based Flood Forecasting: Advances in Scale, Accuracy and Reach

Floods are among the most common and deadly natural disasters in the world, and flood warning systems have been shown to be effective in reducing harm. Yet the majority of the world's vulnerable population does not have access to reliable and actionable warning systems, due to core challenges in scalability, computational costs, and data availability. In this paper we present two components of flood forecasting systems which were developed over the past year, providing access to these critical systems to 75 million people who didn't have this access before.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Accurate Hydrologic Modeling Using Less Information

Joint models are a common and important tool in the intersection of machine learning and the physical sciences, particularly in contexts where real-world measurements are scarce. Recent developments in rainfall-runoff modeling, one of the prime challenges in hydrology, show the value of a joint model with shared representation in this important context. However, current state-of-the-art models depend on detailed and reliable attributes characterizing each site to help the model differentiate correctly between the behavior of different sites. This dependency can present a challenge in data-poor regions. In this paper, we show that we can replace the need for such location-specific attributes with a completely data-driven learned embedding, and match previous state-of-the-art results with less information.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Towards Learning Universal, Regional, and Local Hydrological Behaviors via Machine-Learning Applied to Large-Sample Datasets

Regional rainfall-runoff modeling is an old but still mostly out-standing problem in Hydrological Sciences. The problem currently is that traditional hydrological models degrade significantly in performance when calibrated for multiple basins together instead of for a single basin alone. In this paper, we propose a novel, data-driven approach using Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs), and demonstrate that under a 'big data' paradigm, this is not necessarily the case. By training a single LSTM model on 531 basins from the CAMELS data set using meteorological time series data and static catchment attributes, we were able to significantly improve performance compared to a set of several different hydrological benchmark models. Our proposed approach not only significantly outperforms hydrological models that were calibrated regionally but also achieves better performance than hydrological models that were calibrated for each basin individually. Furthermore, we propose an adaption to the standard LSTM architecture, which we call an Entity-Aware-LSTM (EA-LSTM), that allows for learning, and embedding as a feature layer in a deep learning model, catchment similarities. We show that this learned catchment similarity corresponds well with what we would expect from prior hydrological understanding.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

ML for Flood Forecasting at Scale

Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational difficulty of building continent/global level models that are sufficiently accurate. Machine learning (ML) is primed to be useful in this scenario: learned models often surpass human experts in complex high-dimensional scenarios, and the framework of transfer or multitask learning is an appealing solution for leveraging local signals to achieve improved global performance. We propose to build on these strengths and develop ML systems for timely and accurate riverine flood prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Towards Global Remote Discharge Estimation: Using the Few to Estimate The Many

Learning hydrologic models for accurate riverine flood prediction at scale is a challenge of great importance. One of the key difficulties is the need to rely on in-situ river discharge measurements, which can be quite scarce and unreliable, particularly in regions where floods cause the most damage every year. Accordingly, in this work we tackle the problem of river discharge estimation at different river locations. A core characteristic of the data at hand (e.g. satellite measurements) is that we have few measurements for many locations, all sharing the same physics that underlie the water discharge. We capture this scenario in a simple but powerful common mechanism regression (CMR) model with a local component as well as a shared one which captures the global discharge mechanism. The resulting learning objective is non-convex, but we show that we can find its global optimum by leveraging the power of joining local measurements across sites. In particular, using a spectral initialization with provable near-optimal accuracy, we can find the optimum using standard descent methods. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for the problem of discharge estimation using simulations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

On the Fourier Entropy Influence Conjecture for Extremal Classes

The Fourier Entropy-Influence (FEI) Conjecture of Friedgut and Kalai states that ${\bf H}[f] \leq C \cdot {\bf I}[f]$ holds for every Boolean function $f$, where ${\bf H}[f]$ denotes the spectral entropy of $f$, ${\bf I}[f]$ is its total influence, and $C > 0$ is a universal constant. Despite significant interest in the conjecture it has only been shown to hold for some classes of Boolean functions such as symmetric functions and read-once formulas. In this work, we prove the conjecture for extremal cases, functions with small influence and functions with high entropy. Specifically, we show that: * FEI holds for the class of functions with ${\bf I}[f] \leq 2^{-cn}$ with the constant $C = 4 \cdot \frac{c+1}{c}$. Furthermore, proving FEI for a class of functions with ${\bf I}[f] \leq 2^{-s(n)}$ for some $s(n) = o(n)$ will imply FEI for the class of all Boolean functions. * FEI holds for the class of functions with ${\bf H}[f] \geq cn$ with the constant $C = \frac{1 + c}{h^{-1}(c^2)}$. Furthermore, proving FEI for a class of functions with ${\bf H}[f] \geq s(n)$ for some $s(n) = o(n)$ will imply FEI for the class of all Boolean functions. Additionally, we show that FEI holds for the class of functions with constant $\|\widehat{f}\|_1$, completing the results of Chakhraborty et al. that bounded the entropy of such functions. We also improve the result of Wan et al. for read-k decision trees, from ${\bf H}[f] \leq O(k) \cdot {\bf I}[f]$ to ${\bf H}[f] \leq O(\sqrt{k}) \cdot {\bf I}[f]$. Finally, we suggest a direction for proving FEI for read-k DNFs, and prove the Fourier Min-Entropy/Influence (FMEI) Conjecture for regular read-k DNFs.

cs.CC↗