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Håkan Hjalmarsson

Publications and source records attributed to Håkan Hjalmarsson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Dynamic Programming for A Linear-Gaussian Dual Control Problem

We consider an infinite-horizon discounted dynamic programming (DP) problem for a countable-innovation belief-state model. The model is a surrogate for a linear-Gaussian dual control problem involving an unknown parameter vector and Gaussian observation noise. The surrogate preserves the first two moments of the Gaussian innovation and the resulting posterior second-moment structure. We allow unbounded belief and control spaces and nonnegative stage costs with quadratic growth in the posterior mean and covariance. Using a posterior-moment weight, we show that the Bellman operator is a contraction in a weighted sup-norm space. We characterize the optimal cost as the unique solution of the Bellman equation in this space, establish the existence of optimal stationary policies. We further prove weighted sup-norm convergence of value iteration, policy iteration, and optimistic policy iteration under vanishing approximation errors. The convergence results under vanishing approximation errors rely on general weighted sup-norm contraction properties and are applicable beyond the particular dual control problem considered here.

math.OC↗
arXiv2026

Bayes Estimators with Performance Comparable to Empirical Bayes Estimators and Improved Local Robustness

Bayes estimation has been extensively studied and widely used in statistics, decision theory, signal processing, machine learning, and system identification. Among its variants, empirical Bayes (EB) estimation has attracted considerable attention due to its favorable estimation performance and computational tractability. However, the direct plug-in dependence of an EB estimator on hyperparameters can make it locally sensitive to hyper-parameter perturbations. This paper considers the linear regression model and focuses on the EB estimator by employing the marginal maximum likelihood hyper-parameter estimator. For conciseness, this estimator is simply referred to as the EB estimator. Given a family of EB weighting functions, a generalized Bayes estimator is constructed with the same excess mean squared error (XMSE) as the corresponding EB estimator. Here, the XMSE is a second-order asymptotic measure of the mean squared error difference between the estimator of interest and the maximum likelihood estimator. Furthermore, the EB estimator is shown to be at most firstorder sensitive to hyper-parameter perturbations, whereas the constructed Bayes estimator is at most second-order sensitive, making it locally more robust. The computational complexities of these two estimators are also analyzed. In some cases, the constructed Bayes estimator can be computationally comparable to, or more efficient than, the EB estimator. These theoretical results are further supported by numerical simulations.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Fundamental Limitations of Data-Driven Control: A Statistical Decision Perspective

Substantial research efforts have been devoted to the design of data-driven controllers; however, comparatively less is known about their statistical performance and fundamental limitations. This contribution develops a statistical decision framework for data-driven control, in which a controller is evaluated by its risk, defined as the expected performance degradation relative to the oracle model-based controller, and by its average risk over the parameter space. Within this framework, we propose a collection of design principles for data-driven controllers. We further derive lower bounds on risks by combining the bias-variance decomposition with the Cramér-Rao inequality. In particular, the optimal bias that attains the lower bound for the average risk is determined by calculus of variations, thereby making the bias-variance tradeoff in data-driven control explicit. Moreover, the derived bound reveals a ``waterbed'' effect in data-driven control: any improvement in risk relative to the lower bound over one region of the parameter space must be compensated by deterioration elsewhere. We illustrate the proposed framework on two canonical data-driven control problems: optimal feedforward control and the linear quadratic regulator benchmark. By comparing several representative data-driven controllers with the derived lower bounds, we sharpen the statistical interpretation of existing methods and reveal quantitative limitations that no controller design can avoid.

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arXiv2026

Weighted Null Space Fitting (WNSF): A Link between The Prediction Error Method and Subspace Identification

Subspace identification methods (SIMs) have proven to be very useful and numerically robust for building state-space models. While most SIMs are consistent, few if any can achieve the efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). Conversely, the prediction error method (PEM) with a quadratic criteria is equivalent to MLE, but it comes with non-convex optimization problems and requires good initialization points. This contribution proposes a weighted null space fitting (WNSF) approach for estimating state-space models, combining some key advantages of the two aforementioned mainstream approaches. It starts with a least-squares estimate of a high-order ARX model, and then a multi-step least-squares procedure reduces the model to a state-space model on canoncial form. It is demonstrated through statistical analysis that when a canonical parameterization is admissible, the proposed method is consistent and asymptotically efficient, thereby making progress on the long-standing open problem about the existence of an asymptotically efficient SIM. Numerical and practical examples are provided to illustrate that the proposed method performs favorable in comparison with SIMs.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

Bridging the Prediction Error Method and Subspace Identification: A Weighted Null Space Fitting Method

Subspace identification methods (SIMs) have proven to be very useful and numerically robust for building state-space models. While most SIMs are consistent, few if any can achieve the efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). Conversely, the prediction error method (PEM) with a quadratic criteria is equivalent to MLE, but it comes with non-convex optimization problems and requires good initialization points. This contribution proposes a weighted null space fitting (WNSF) approach for estimating state-space models, combining some key advantages of the two aforementioned mainstream approaches. It starts with a least-squares estimate of a high-order ARX model, and then a multi-step least-squares procedure reduces the model to a state-space model on canoncial form. It is demonstrated through statistical analysis that when a canonical parameterization is admissible, the proposed method is consistent and asymptotically efficient, thereby making progress on the long-standing open problem about the existence of an asymptotically efficient SIM. Numerical and practical examples are provided to illustrate that the proposed method performs favorable in comparison with SIMs.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Optimizing the Driving Profile for Vehicle Mass Estimation -- extended version

Accurate mass estimation is essential for the safe and efficient operation of autonomous heavy-duty vehicles, particularly during transportation missions in unstructured environments such as mining sites, where vehicle mass can vary significantly due to loading and unloading. While prior work has recognized the importance of acceleration profiles for estimation accuracy, the systematic design of driving profiles during transport has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper presents a framework for designing driving profiles to support accurate mass estimation. Based on application-oriented input design, it aims to meet a user-defined accuracy constraint under three optimization objectives: minimum-time, minimum-distance, and maximum accuracy (within a fixed time). It allows time- and distance-dependent bounds on acceleration and velocity, and is based on a Newtonian vehicle dynamics model with actuator dynamics. The optimal profiles are obtained by solving concave optimization problems using a branch-and-bound method, with alternative rank-constrained and semi-definite relaxations also discussed. Theoretical analysis provides insights into the optimal profiles, including feasibility conditions, key ratios between velocity and acceleration bounds, and trade-offs between time- and distance-optimal solutions. The framework is validated through simulations and real-world experiments on a Scania truck with different payloads. Results show that the designed profiles are feasible and effective, enabling accurate mass estimation as part of normal transportation operations without requiring dedicated calibration runs. An additional contribution is a non-causal Wiener filter, with parameters estimated via the Empirical Bayes method, used to filter the accelerometer signal with no phase-lag.

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arXiv2026

Data-informativity conditions for structured linear systems with implications for dynamic networks

When estimating a single subsystem (module) in a linear dynamic network with a prediction error method, a data-informativity condition needs to be satisfied for arriving at a consistent module estimate. This concerns a condition on input signals in the constructed, possibly MIMO (multiple input multiple output) predictor model being persistently exciting, which is typically guaranteed if the input spectrum is positive definite for a sufficient number of frequencies. Generically, the condition can be formulated as a path-based condition on the graph of the network model. The current condition has two elements of possible conservatism: (a) rather than focussing on the full MIMO model, one would like to be able to focus on consistently estimating the target module only, and (b) structural information, such as structural zero elements in the interconnection structure or known subsystems, should be taken into account. In this paper relaxed conditions for data-informativity are derived addressing these two issues, leading to relaxed path-based conditions on the network graph. This leads to experimental conditions that are less strict, i.e. require a smaller number of external excitation signals. Additionally, the new expressions for data-informativity in identification are shown to be closely related to earlier derived conditions for (generic) single module identifiability.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2025

Finite Sample MIMO System Identification with Multisine Excitation: Nonparametric, Direct, and Two-step Parametric Estimators

Multisine excitations are widely used for identifying multi-input multi-output systems due to their periodicity, data compression properties, and control over the input spectrum. Despite their popularity, the finite sample statistical properties of frequency-domain estimators under multisine excitation, for both nonparametric and parametric settings, remain insufficiently understood. This paper develops a finite-sample statistical framework for least-squares estimation of the frequency response function (FRF) and its implications for parametric modeling. First, we derive exact distributional and covariance properties of the FRF estimator, explicitly accounting for aliasing effects under slow sampling regimes, and establish conditions for unbiasedness, uncorrelatedness, and consistency across multiple experiments. Second, we show that the FRF estimate is a sufficient statistic for any parametric model under Gaussian noise, leading to an exact equivalence between optimal two stage frequency-domain methods and time-domain prediction error and maximum likelihood estimation. This equivalence is shown to yield finite-sample concentration bounds for parametric maximum likelihood estimators, enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification, and closed-form prediction error method estimators without iterative optimization. The theoretical results are demonstrated in a representative case study.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2025

Finite Sample Analysis of Open-loop Subspace Identification Methods

Subspace identification methods (SIMs) are known for their simple parameterization for MIMO systems and robust numerical properties. However, a comprehensive statistical analysis of SIMs remains an open problem. Following a three-step procedure generally used in SIMs, this work presents a finite sample analysis for open-loop SIMs. In Step 1 we begin with a parsimonious SIM. Leveraging a recent analysis of an individual ARX model, we obtain a union error bound for a Hankel-like matrix constructed from a bank of ARX models. Step 2 involves model reduction via weighted singular value decomposition (SVD), where we use robustness results for SVD to obtain error bounds on extended controllability and observability matrices, respectively. The final Step 3 focuses on deriving error bounds for system matrices, where two different realization algorithms, the MOESP type and the CVA type, are studied. Our results not only agree with classical asymptotic results, but also show how much data is needed to guarantee a desired error bound with high probability. The proposed method generalizes related finite sample analyses and applies broadly to many variants of SIMs.

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arXiv2025

Range Space or Null Space: Least-Squares Methods for the Realization Problem

This contribution revisits the classical approximate realization problem, which involves determining matrices of a state-space model based on estimates of a truncated series of Markov parameters. A Hankel matrix built up by these Markov parameters plays a fundamental role in this problem, leveraging the fact that both its range space and left null space encode critical information about the state-space model. We examine two prototype realization algorithms based on the Hankel matrix: the classical range-space-based (SVD-based) method and the more recent null-space-based method. It is demonstrated that the range-space-based method corresponds to a total least-squares solution, whereas the null-space-based method corresponds to an ordinary least-squares solution. By analyzing the differences in sensitivity of the two algorithms, we determine the conditions when one or the other realization algorithm is to be preferred, and identify factors that contribute to an ill-conditioned realization problem. Furthermore, recognizing that both methods are suboptimal, we argue that the optimal realization is obtained through a weighted least-squares approach. A statistical analysis of these methods, including their consistency and asymptotic normality is also provided.

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arXiv2025

Bayes and Biased Estimators Without Hyper-parameter Estimation: Comparable Performance to the Empirical-Bayes-Based Regularized Estimator

Regularized system identification has become a significant complement to more classical system identification. It has been numerically shown that kernel-based regularized estimators often perform better than the maximum likelihood estimator in terms of minimizing mean squared error (MSE). However, regularized estimators often require hyper-parameter estimation. This paper focuses on ridge regression and the regularized estimator by employing the empirical Bayes hyper-parameter estimator. We utilize the excess MSE to quantify the MSE difference between the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator for large sample sizes. We then exploit the excess MSE expressions to develop both a family of generalized Bayes estimators and a family of closed-form biased estimators. They have the same excess MSE as the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator but eliminate the need for hyper-parameter estimation. Moreover, we conduct numerical simulations to show that the performance of these new estimators is comparable to the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator, while computationally, they are more efficient.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2025

Excess Mean Squared Error of Empirical Bayes Estimators

Empirical Bayes estimators are based on minimizing the average risk with the hyper-parameters in the weighting function being estimated from observed data. The performance of an empirical Bayes estimator is typically evaluated by its mean squared error (MSE). However, the explicit expression for its MSE is generally unavailable for finite sample sizes. To address this issue, we define a high-order analytical criterion: the excess MSE. It quantifies the performance difference between the maximum likelihood and empirical Bayes estimators. An explicit expression for the excess MSE of an empirical Bayes estimator employing a general data-dependent hyper-parameter estimator is derived. As specific instances, we provide excess MSE expressions for kernel-based regularized estimators using the scaled empirical Bayes, Stein unbiased risk estimation, and generalized cross-validation hyper-parameter estimators. Moreover, we propose a modification to the excess MSE expressions for regularized estimators for moderate sample sizes and show its improvement on accuracy in numerical simulations.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

Balancing Application Relevant and Sparsity Revealing Excitation in Input Design

The maximum absolute correlation between regressors, which is called mutual coherence, plays an essential role in sparse estimation. A regressor matrix whose columns are highly correlated may result from optimal input design, since there is no constraint on the mutual coherence, making it difficult to handle sparse estimation. This paper aims to tackle this issue for fixed denominator models, which include Laguerre, Kautz, and generalized orthonormal basis function expansion models, for example. The paper proposes an optimal input design method where the achieved Fisher information matrix is fitted to the desired Fisher matrix, together with a coordinate transformation designed to make the regressors in the transformed coordinates have low mutual coherence. The method can be used together with any sparse estimation method and any desired Fisher matrix. A numerical study shows its potential for alleviating the problem of model order selection when used in conjunction with, for example, classical methods such as the Akaike Information Criterion.

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arXiv2024

Merging Parameter Estimation and Classification Using LASSO

Soft sensing is a way to indirectly obtain information of signals for which direct sensing is difficult or prohibitively expensive. It may not \textit{a priori} be evident which sensors provide useful information about the target signal, and various operating conditions often necessitate different models. In this paper, we provide a systematic method to construct a soft sensor that can deal with these issues. We propose a single estimation criterion, where the objectives are encoded in terms of model fit, model sparsity (reducing the number of different models), and model parameter coefficient sparsity (to exclude irrelevant sensors). The proposed method is tested on real-world scenarios involving prototype vehicles, demonstrating its effectiveness.

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arXiv2024

Regret Minimization in Scalar, Static, Non-linear Optimization Problems

We study the problem of determining an effective exploration strategy in static and non-linear optimization problems, which depend on an unknown scalar parameter to be learned from online collected noisy data. An optimal trade-off between exploration and exploitation is crucial for effective optimization under uncertainties, and to achieve this we consider a cumulative regret minimization approach over a finite horizon, with each time instant in the horizon characterized by a stochastic exploration signal, whose variance is to be designed. We aim to extend the well-established concepts of regret minimization from linear to non-linear systems, with a focus on the subsequent conceptual differences and challenges. Thus, under an idealized assumption on an appropriately defined information function associated with the excitation, we are able to show that an optimal exploration strategy is either to use no exploration at all (called lazy exploration) or adding an exploration excitation only at the first time instant of the horizon (called immediate exploration). A quadratic numerical example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

Weighted Least-Squares PARSIM

Subspace identification methods (SIMs) have proven very powerful for estimating linear state-space models. To overcome the deficiencies of classical SIMs, a significant number of algorithms has appeared over the last two decades, where most of them involve a common intermediate step, that is to estimate the range space of the extended observability matrix. In this contribution, an optimized version of the parallel and parsimonious SIM (PARSIM), PARSIM\textsubscript{opt}, is proposed by using weighted least-squares. It not only inherits all the benefits of PARSIM but also attains the best linear unbiased estimator for the above intermediate step. Furthermore, inspired by SIMs based on the predictor form, consistent estimates of the optimal weighting matrix for weighted least-squares are derived. Essential similarities, differences and simulated comparisons of some key SIMs related to our method are also presented.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2024

A Weighted Least-Squares Method for Non-Asymptotic Identification of Markov Parameters from Multiple Trajectories

Markov parameters play a key role in system identification. There exists many algorithms where these parameters are estimated using least-squares in a first, pre-processing, step, including subspace identification and multi-step least-squares algorithms, such as Weighted Null-Space Fitting. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in non-asymptotic analysis of estimation algorithms. In this contribution we identify the Markov parameters using weighted least-squares and present non-asymptotic analysis for such estimator. To cover both stable and unstable systems, multiple trajectories are collected. We show that with the optimal weighting matrix, weighted least-squares gives a tighter error bound than ordinary least-squares for the case of non-uniformly distributed measurement errors. Moreover, as the optimal weighting matrix depends on the system's true parameters, we introduce two methods to consistently estimate the optimal weighting matrix, where the convergence rate of these estimates is also provided. Numerical experiments demonstrate improvements of weighted least-squares over ordinary least-squares in finite sample settings.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2024

Finite Sample Analysis for a Class of Subspace Identification Methods

While subspace identification methods (SIMs) are appealing due to their simple parameterization for MIMO systems and robust numerical realizations, a comprehensive statistical analysis of SIMs remains an open problem, especially in the non-asymptotic regime. In this work, we provide a finite sample analysis for a class of SIMs, which reveals that the convergence rates for estimating Markov parameters and system matrices are $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{N})$, in line with classical asymptotic results. Based on the observation that the model format in classical SIMs becomes non-causal because of a projection step, we choose a parsimonious SIM that bypasses the projection step and strictly enforces a causal model to facilitate the analysis, where a bank of ARX models are estimated in parallel. Leveraging recent results from finite sample analysis of an individual ARX model, we obtain an overall error bound of an array of ARX models and proceed to derive error bounds for system matrices via robustness results for the singular value decomposition.

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