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H. Salo

Publications and source records attributed to H. Salo.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Catalogue of the morphological features in the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S$^4$G)

A catalogue of the morphological features for the complete Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S$^4$G), including 2352 nearby galaxies, is presented. The measurements are made using 3.6 $μ$m images, largely tracing the old stellar population; at this wavelength the effects of dust are also minimal. The measured features are the sizes, ellipticities, and orientations of bars, rings, ringlenses, and lenses. Measured in a similar manner are also barlenses (lens-like structures embedded in the bars), which are not lenses in the usual sense, being rather the more face-on counterparts of the boxy/peanut structures in the edge-on view. In addition, pitch angles of spiral arm segments are measured for those galaxies where they can be reliably traced. More than one pitch angle may appear for a single galaxy. All measurements are made in a human-supervised manner so that attention is paid to each galaxy. We used isophotal analysis, unsharp masking, and fitting ellipses to measured structures. We find that the sizes of the inner rings and lenses normalized to barlength correlate with the galaxy mass: the normalized sizes increase toward the less massive galaxies; it has been suggested that this is related to the larger dark matter content in the bar region in these systems. Bars in the low mass galaxies are also less concentrated, likely to be connected to the mass cut-off in the appearance of the nuclear rings and lenses. We also show observational evidence that barlenses indeed form part of the bar, and that a large fraction of the inner lenses in the non-barred galaxies could be former barlenses in which the thin outer bar component has dissolved.

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ARRAKIS: Atlas of Resonance Rings As Known In the S4G

Resonance rings are the consequence of secular evolution processes that redistribute material and angular momentum in discs. We produced a Catalogue and an Atlas of the rings detected in the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S4G) and to conduct a statistical study of the data in the Catalogue. We traced the contours of rings previously identified by Buta et al. (in preparation) and fitted them with ellipses. We found the orientation of bars by studying the galaxy ellipse fits from S4G's Pipeline 4. We used the galaxy orientation data obtained by S4G's Pipeline 4 to obtain intrinsic ellipticities and orientations of rings and the bars. ARRAKIS contains data on 724 ringed galaxies in the S4G. The frequency of resonance rings in the S4G is of 16+-1% and 35+-1% for outer and inner features, respectively. Outer rings are mostly found in Hubble stages -1<=T<=4. Inner rings are found in a distribution that covers the range -1<=T<=7. We confirm that outer rings have two preferred orientations, parallel and perpendicular to the bar. We confirm a tendency for inner rings to be oriented parallel to the bar, but we find that a significant fraction (~50%) of them have random orientations with respect to the bar. These misaligned inner rings are mostly found in late-type galaxies (T>=4). This may be due to spiral modes decoupled from the bar dominating the Fourier amplitude spectrum at the radius of the inner ring. We find that the fraction of barred galaxies hosting outer (inner) rings is ~1.7 times (~1.3 times) that in unbarred galaxies. The fact that rings are only mildly favoured by bars suggests that those in unbarred galaxies either formed due to weak departures from the axisymmetry of the galactic potential or that they are born because of bars that have been destroyed after the ring formation.

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The Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S$^4$G): Precise Stellar Mass Distributions from Automated Dust Correction at 3.6 microns

The mid-infrared is an optimal window to trace stellar mass in nearby galaxies and the 3.6$μm$ IRAC band has been exploited to this effect, but such mass estimates can be biased by dust emission. We present our pipeline to reveal the old stellar flux at 3.6$μm$ and obtain stellar mass maps for more than 1600 galaxies available from the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S$^{4}$G). This survey consists of images in two infrared bands (3.6 and 4.5$μm$), and we use the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) method presented in Meidt et al. (2012) to separate the dominant light from old stars and the dust emission that can significantly contribute to the observed 3.6$μm$ flux. We exclude from our ICA analysis galaxies with low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N < 10) and those with original [3.6]-[4.5] colors compatible with an old stellar population, indicative of little dust emission (mostly early Hubble types, which can directly provide good mass maps). For the remaining 1251 galaxies to which ICA was successfully applied, we find that as much as 10-30% of the total light at 3.6$μm$ typically originates from dust, and locally it can reach even higher values. This contamination fraction shows a correlation with specific star formation rates, confirming that the dust emission that we detect is related to star formation. Additionally, we have used our large sample of mass estimates to calibrate a relationship of effective mass-to-light ratio ($M/L$) as a function of observed [3.6]-[4.5] color: $\log(M/L)=-0.339 (\pm 0.057) \times ([3.6]-[4.5]) -0.336 (\pm 0.002)$. Our final pipeline products have been made public through IRSA, providing the astronomical community with an unprecedentedly large set of stellar mass maps ready to use for scientific applications.

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Observed properties of boxy/peanut/barlens bulges

We review the observed morphological, photometric, and kinematic properties of boxy/peanut (B/P) shape bulges. Nearly half of the bulges in the nearby edge-on galaxies have these characteristics, which fraction is similar to the observed bar fraction in Hubble types earlier than Scd. B/P bulges are generally detected in the edge-on view, but it has been recently demonstrated that barlenses, which are lens-like structures embedded in bars, are the more face-on counterparts of the B/P bulges. Multi-component structural decompositions have shown that B/P/barlens structures are likely to account for most of the bulge light, including the early-type disks harboring most of the bulge mass in galaxies. Cool central disks are often embedded in the B/P/barlens bulges. Barred galaxies contain also dynamically hot classical bulges, but it is not yet clear to what extent they are really dynamically distinct structure components, and to what extent stars wrapped into the central regions of the galaxies during the formation and evolution of bars. If most of the bulge mass in the Milky Way mass galaxies in the nearby universe in- deed resides in the B/P-shape bulges, and not in the classical bulges, that idea needs to be integrated into the paradigm of galaxy formation.

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The BaLROG project - I. Quantifying the influence of bars on the kinematics of nearby galaxies

We present the BaLROG (Bars in Low Redshift Optical Galaxies) sample of 16 morphologically distinct barred spirals to characterise observationally the influence of bars on nearby galaxies. Each galaxy is a mosaic of several pointings observed with the IFU spectrograph SAURON leading to a tenfold sharper spatial resolution (~100 pc) compared to ongoing IFU surveys. In this paper we focus on the kinematic properties. We calculate the bar strength Qb from classical torque analysis using 3.6 μm Spitzer (S4G) images, but also develop a new method based solely on the kinematics. A correlation between the two measurements is found and backed up by N-body simulations, verifying the measurement of Qb . We find that bar strengths from ionised gas kinematics are ~2.5 larger than those measured from stellar kinematics and that stronger bars have enhanced influence on inner kinematic features. We detect that stellar angular momentum "dips" at 0.2$\pm$0.1 bar lengths and half of our sample exhibits an anti-correlation of h3 - stellar velocity (v/σ) in these central parts. An increased flattening of the stellar σ gradient with increasing bar strength supports the notion of bar-induced orbit mixing. These measurements set important constraints on the spatial scales, namely an increasing influence in the central regions (0.1-0.5 bar lengths), revealed by kinematic signatures due to bar-driven secular evolution in present day galaxies.

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A Classical Morphological Analysis of Galaxies in the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S4G)

The Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S4G) is the largest available database of deep, homogeneous middle-infrared (mid-IR) images of galaxies of all types. The survey, which includes 2352 nearby galaxies, reveals galaxy morphology only minimally affected by interstellar extinction. This paper presents an atlas and classifications of S4G galaxies in the Comprehensive de Vaucouleurs revised Hubble-Sandage (CVRHS) system. The CVRHS system follows the precepts of classical de Vaucouleurs (1959) morphology, modified to include recognition of other features such as inner, outer, and nuclear lenses, nuclear rings, bars, and disks, spheroidal galaxies, X patterns and box/peanut structures, OLR subclass outer rings and pseudorings, bar ansae and barlenses, parallel sequence late-types, thick disks, and embedded disks in 3D early-type systems. We show that our CVRHS classifications are internally consistent, and that nearly half of the S4G sample consists of extreme late-type systems (mostly bulgeless, pure disk galaxies) in the range Scd-Im. The most common family classification for mid-IR types S0/a to Sc is SA while that for types Scd to Sm is SB. The bars in these two type domains are very different in mid-IR structure and morphology. This paper examines the bar, ring, and type classification fractions in the sample, and also includes several montages of images highlighting the various kinds of "stellar structures" seen in mid-IR galaxy morphology.

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Stellar Kinematics and Structural Properties of Virgo Cluster Dwarf Early-Type Galaxies from the SMAKCED Project III. Rotation versus Pressure Support

We analyze the stellar kinematics of 39 dwarf early-type galaxies (dEs) in the Virgo cluster. Based on the specific stellar angular momentum lambda_e and the ellipticity, we find 11 slow rotators and 28 fast rotators. The fast rotators in the outer parts of the Virgo cluster rotate significantly faster than fast rotators in the inner parts of the cluster. Moreover, 10 out of the 11 slow rotators are located in the inner 3 degrees (D < 1 Mpc) of the cluster. The fast rotators contain subtle disky structures that are visible in high-pass filtered optical images, while the slow rotators do not exhibit these structures. In addition, two of the dEs have kinematically decoupled cores and four more have emission partially filling in the Balmer absorption lines. These properties suggest that Virgo cluster dEs may have originated from late-type star-forming galaxies that were transformed by the environment after their infall into the cluster. The correlation between lambda_e and the clustercentric distance can be explained by a scenario where low luminosity star-forming galaxies fall into the cluster, their gas is rapidly removed by ram pressure stripping, although some of it can be retained in their core, their star-formation is quenched but their stellar kinematics are preserved. After a long time in the cluster and several passes through its center, the galaxies are heated up and transformed into slow rotating dEs.

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Stellar Kinematics and Structural Properties of Virgo Cluster Dwarf Early-Type Galaxies from the SMAKCED Project II. The Survey and a Systematic Analysis of Kinematic Anomalies and Asymmetries

We present spatially resolved kinematics and global stellar populations and mass-to-light ratios for a sample of 39 dwarf early-type (dE) galaxies in the Virgo cluster studied as part of the SMAKCED stellar absorption-line spectroscopy and imaging survey. This sample is representative of the early-type population in the absolute magnitude range -19.0 < M_r < -16.0. For each dE, we measure the rotation curve and velocity dispersion profile and fit an analytic function to the rotation curve. We study the significance of the departure of the rotation curve from the best fit analytic function (poorly fit) and of the difference between the approaching and receding sides of the rotation curve (asymmetry). We find that 62 +/- 8 % (23 out of the 39) of the dEs have a significant anomaly in their rotation curve. Analysis of the images reveals photometric anomalies for most galaxies. However, there is no clear correlation between the significance of the photometric and kinematic anomalies. We measure age-sensitive and metallicity-sensitive Lick spectral indices and find a wide range of ages and metallicities. We also find that 4 dEs have emission partially filling in the Balmer absorption lines. Finally, we estimate the total masses and dark matter fractions of the dEs. They have a median total mass and dark matter fraction within the Re of log Me = 9.1 +/- 0.2 and f_DM = 46 +/- 18 %. We plot several scaling relations and show that dEs seem to be the bridge between massive early-type and dwarf spheroidal galaxies.

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Milky Way mass galaxies with X-shaped bulges are not rare in the local Universe

Boxy/Peanut/X-shaped (B/P/X) bulges are studied using the 3.6 mum images from the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies, and the K_s-band images from the Near-IR S0 galaxy Survey. They are compared with the properties of barlenses, defined as lens-like structures embedded in bars, with sizes of about 50% of bars and axial ratios of 0.6-0.9. Based on observations and recent simulation models we show evidence that barlenses are the more face-on counterparts of B/P/X-shaped bulges. Using unsharp masks 18 new X-shaped structures are identified, covering a large range of galaxy inclinations. The similar masses and red B-3.6 mum colors of the host galaxies, and the fact that the combined axial ratio distribution of the host galaxy disks is flat, support the interpretation that barlenses and X-shapes are physically the same phenomenon. In Hubble types -3<T<2 even half of the bars contain either a barlens or an X-shaped structure. Our detailed 2D multi-component decompositions for 29 galaxies, fitting the barlens/X-shape with a separate component, indicate very small or non-existent classical bulges. Taking into account that the structures we study have similar host galaxy masses as the Milky Way (MW), our results imply that MW mass galaxies with no significant classical bulges are common in the nearby Universe.

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Exploring overstabilities in Saturn's A ring using two stellar occultations

Certain regions of Saturn's rings exhibit periodic opacity variations with characteristic radial wavelengths of up to a few hundred meters that have been attributed to viscous overstabilities. The Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) onboard the Cassini spacecraft observed two stellar occultations of the star gamma Crucis that had sufficient resolution to discern a sub-set of these periodic patterns in a portion of the A ring between 124,000 and 125,000 km from Saturn center. These data reveal that the wavelengths and intensities of the patterns vary systematically across this region, but that these parameters are not strictly determined by the ring's average optical depth. Furthermore, our observations indicate that these opacity variations have an azimuthal coherence scale of around 3000 km.

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The Baryonic Tully-Fisher Relationship for S$^4$G Galaxies and the "Condensed" Baryon Fraction of Galaxies

We combine data from the Spitzer Survey for Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S$^4$G), a recently calibrated empirical stellar mass estimator from Eskew et al., and an extensive database of HI spectral line profiles to examine the baryonic Tully-Fisher (BTF) relation. We find 1) that the BTF has lower scatter than the classic Tully-Fisher (TF) relation and is better described as a linear relationship, confirming similar previous results, 2) that the inclusion of a radial scale in the BTF decreases the scatter but only modestly, as seen previously for the TF relation, and 3) that the slope of the BTF, which we find to be $3.5\pm 0.2$ ($Δ$ log $M_{baryon}/Δ$ log $v_c$), implies that on average a nearly constant fraction ($\sim 0.4$) of all baryons expected to be in a halo are "condensed" onto the central region of rotationally supported galaxies. The condensed baryon fraction, $M_{baryon}/M_{total}$, is, to our measurement precision, nearly independent of galaxy circular velocity (our sample spans circular velocities, $v_c$, between 60 and 250 km s$^{-1}$, but is extended to $v_c\sim 10$ km s$^{-1}$ using data from the literature). The observed galaxy-to-galaxy scatter in this fraction is generally $\le$ a factor of 2 despite fairly liberal selection criteria. These results imply that cooling and heating processes, such as cold vs. hot accretion, mass loss due to stellar winds, and AGN driven feedback, to the degree that they affect the global galactic properties involved in the BTF, are independent of halo mass for galaxies with $10 < v_c < 250$ km/s and typically introduce no more than a factor of two range in the resulting $M_{baryon}/M_{total}$. Recent simulations by Aumer et al. of a small sample of disk galaxies are in excellent agreement with our data, suggesting that current simulations are capable of reproducing the global properties of individual disk galaxies.

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Reconstructing the stellar mass distributions of galaxies using S4G IRAC 3.6 and 4.5 micron images: II. The conversion from light to mass

We present a new approach for estimating the 3.6 micron stellar mass-to-light ratio in terms of the [3.6]-[4.5] colors of old stellar populations. Our approach avoids several of the largest sources of uncertainty in existing techniques. By focusing on mid-IR wavelengths, we gain a virtually dust extinction-free tracer of the old stars, avoiding the need to adopt a dust model to correctly interpret optical or optical/NIR colors normally leveraged to assign M/L. By calibrating a new relation between NIR and mid-IR colors of GLIMPSE giant stars we also avoid discrepancies in model predictions for the [3.6]-[4.5] colors of old stellar populations due to uncertainties in molecular line opacities. We find that the [3.6]-[4.5] color, which is driven primarily by metallicity, provides a tight constraint on M/L_3.6, which varies intrinsically less than at optical wavelengths. The uncertainty on M/L_3.6 of ~0.07 dex due to unconstrained age variations marks a significant improvement on existing techniques for estimating the stellar M/L with shorter wavelength data. A single M/L_3.6=0.6 (assuming a Chabrier IMF), independent of [3.6]-[4.5] color, is also feasible as it can be applied simultaneously to old, metal-rich and young, metal-poor populations, and still with comparable (or better) accuracy (~0.1 dex) as alternatives. We expect our M/L_3.6 to be optimal for mapping the stellar mass distributions in S4G galaxies, for which we have developed an Independent Component Analysis technique to first isolate the old stellar light at 3.6 micron from non-stellar emission (e.g. hot dust and the 3.3 PAH feature). Our estimate can also be used to determine the fractional contribution of non-stellar emission to global (rest-frame) 3.6 micron fluxes, e.g. in WISE imaging, and establishes a reliable basis for exploring variations in the stellar IMF.

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Stellar Kinematics and Structural Properties of Virgo Cluster Dwarf Early-Type Galaxies from the SMAKCED Project. I. Kinematically Decoupled Cores and Implications for Infallen Groups in Clusters

We present evidence for kinematically decoupled cores (KDCs) in two dwarf early-type (dE) galaxies in the Virgo cluster, VCC 1183 and VCC 1453, studied as part of the SMAKCED stellar absorption-line spectroscopy and imaging survey. These KDCs have radii of 1.8'' (0.14 kpc) and 4.2'' (0.33 kpc), respectively. Each of these KDCs is distinct from the main body of its host galaxy in two ways: (1) inverted sense of rotation; and (2) younger (and possibly more metal-rich) stellar population. The observed stellar population differences are probably associated with the KDC, although we cannot rule out the possibility of intrinsic radial gradients in the host galaxy. We describe a statistical analysis method to detect, quantify the significance of, and characterize KDCs in long-slit rotation curve data. We apply this method to the two dE galaxies presented in this paper and to five other dEs for which KDCs have been reported in the literature. Among these seven dEs, there are four significant KDC detections, two marginal KDC detections, and one dE with an unusual central kinematic anomaly that may be an asymmetric KDC.The frequency of occurence of KDCs and their properties provide important constraints on the formation history of their host galaxies. We discuss different formation scenarios for these KDCs in cluster environments and find that dwarf-dwarf wet mergers or gas accretion can explain the properties of these KDCs. Both of these mechanisms require that the progenitor had a close companion with a low relative velocity. This suggests that KDCs were formed in galaxy pairs residing in a poor group environment or in isolation whose subsequent infall into the cluster quenched star formation.

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Morphological Parameters of Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S4G)

The morphology of galaxies can be quantified to some degree using a set of scale-invariant parameters. Concentration (C), Asymmetry (A), Smoothness (S), the Gini index (G), relative contribution of the brightest pixels to the second order moment of the flux (M20), ellipticity (E), and the Gini index of the second order moment (GM) have all been applied to morphologically classify galaxies at various wavelengths. Here we present a catalog of these parameters for the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S4G), a volume-limited near-infrared imaging survey of nearby galaxies using the 3.6 and 4.5 micron channels of the IRAC camera. Our goal is to provide a reference catalog of near-infrared quantified morphology for high-redshift studies and galaxy evolution models with enough detail to resolve stellar mass morphology. We explore where normal, non-interacting galaxies -those typically found on the Hubble tuning fork- lie in this parameter space and show that there is a tight relation between Concentration and M20 for normal galaxies. M20 can be used to classify galaxies into earlier and later types (e.g., to separate spirals from irregulars). Several criteria using these parameters exist to select systems with a disturbed morphology, i.e., those that appear to be undergoing a tidal interaction. We examine the applicability of these criteria to Spitzer near-infrared imaging. We find that four relations, based on the parameters A&S, G&M20, GM, and C&M20, respectively, select outliers in the morphological parameter space, but each selects different subsets of galaxies. Two criteria (GM > 0.6, G > -0.115 x M20 + 0.384) seem most appropriate to identify possible mergers and the merger fraction in near-infrared surveys. We find no strong relation between lopsidedness and most of these morphological parameters, except for a weak dependence of lopsidedness on Concentration and M20.

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A near-infrared census of the multi-component stellar structure of early-type dwarf galaxies in the Virgo cluster

The fraction of star-forming to quiescent dwarf galaxies varies from almost infinity in the field to zero in the centers of rich galaxy clusters. What is causing this pronounced morphology-density relation? What do quiescent dwarf galaxies look like when studied in detail, and what conclusions can be drawn about their formation mechanism? Here we study a nearly magnitude-complete sample (-19 < M_r < -16 mag) of 121 Virgo cluster early types with deep near-infrared images from the SMAKCED project. We fit two-dimensional models with optional inner and outer components, as well as bar and lens components (in ~15% of the galaxies), to the galaxy images. While a single Sérsic function may approximate the overall galaxy structure, it does not entirely capture the light distribution of two-thirds of our galaxies, for which multi-component models provide a better fit. This fraction of complex galaxies shows a strong dependence on luminosity, being larger for brighter objects. We analyze the global and component-specific photometric scaling relations of early-type dwarf galaxies and discuss similarities with bright early and late types. The dwarfs' global galaxy parameters show scaling relations that are similar to those of bright disk galaxies. The inner components are mostly fitted with Sérsic n values close to 1. At a given magnitude they are systematically larger than the bulges of spirals, suggesting that they are not ordinary bulges. We argue that the multi-component structures in early-type dwarfs are mostly a phenomenon inherent to the disks, and may indeed stem from environmental processing.

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The impact of bars on disk breaks as probed by S4G imaging

We have analyzed the radial distribution of old stars in a sample of 218 nearby face-on disks, using deep 3.6um images from the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S4G). In particular, we have studied the structural properties of those disks with a broken or down-bending profile. We find that, on average, disks with a genuine single exponential profile have a scale-length and a central surface brightness which are intermediate to those of the inner and outer components of a down-bending disk with the same total stellar mass. In the case of barred galaxies, the ratio between the break and the bar radii (Rbr/Rbar) depends strongly on the total stellar mass of the galaxy. For galaxies more massive than 10^10 Msun, the distribution is bimodal, peaking at Rbr/Rbar~2 and ~3.5. The first peak, which is the most populated one, is linked to the Outer Lindblad Resonance of the bar, whereas the second one is consistent with a dynamical coupling between the bar and the spiral pattern. For galaxies below 10^10 Msun, breaks are found up to ~10 Rbar, but we show that they could still be caused by resonances given the rising nature of rotation curves in these low-mass disks. While not ruling out star formation thresholds, our results imply that radial stellar migration induced by non-axysymmetric features can be responsible not only for those breaks at 2 Rbar, but also for many of those found at larger radii.

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Statistics of the structure components in S0s: implications for bar induced secular evolution

The fractions and dimension of bars, rings and lenses are studied in the Near-IR S0 galaxy Survey (NIRS0S). We find evidence that multiple lenses in some barred S0s are related to bar resonances in a similar manner as the inner and outer rings, for which the outer/inner length ratio 2. Inner lenses in the non-barred galaxies normalized to galaxy diameter are clearly smaller than those in the barred systems. Interestingly, these small lenses in the non-barred galaxies have similar sizes as barlenses (lens-like structures embedded in a bar), and therefore might actually be barlenses in former barred galaxies, in which the outer, more elongated bar component, has been destroyed. We also find that fully developed inner lenses are on average a factor 1.3 larger than bars, whereas inner rings have similar sizes as bars. The fraction of inner lenses is found to be constant in all family classes (A, AB, B). Nuclear bars appear most frequently among the weakly barred (AB) galaxies, which is consistent with the theoretical models by Maciejewski & Athanassoula (2008). Similar sized bars as the nuclear bars were detected in seven 'non-barred' S0s. Galaxy luminosity does not uniquely define the sizes of bars or bar-related structures, neither is there any upper limit in galaxy luminosity for bar formation. Although all the family classes cover the same range of galaxy luminosity, the non-barred (A) galaxies are on average 0.6 mag brighter than the strongly barred (B) systems. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that bars play an important role in the formation of the structure components of galaxies. The fact that multiple lenses are common in S0s, and that at least the inner lenses can have very old stellar populations, implies that the last destructive merger, or major gas accretion event, must have taken place at a fairly high redshift.

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Precursor flares in OJ 287

We have studied three most recent precursor flares in the light curve of the blazar OJ 287 while invoking the presence of a precessing binary black hole in the system to explain the nature of these flares. Precursor flare timings from the historical light curves are compared with theoretical predictions from our model that incorporate effects of an accretion disk and post-Newtonian description for the binary black hole orbit. We find that the precursor flares coincide with the secondary black hole descending towards the accretion disk of the primary black hole from the observed side, with a mean z-component of approximately z_c = 4000 AU. We use this model of precursor flares to predict that precursor flare of similar nature should happen around 2020.96 before the next major outburst in 2022.

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