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H. T. J. Bevins

Publications and source records attributed to H. T. J. Bevins.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation: A Robust Loss that Doubles as an Unsupervised Contamination Classifier

Engineered robust losses such as Huber, Student-$t$, and generalised cross-entropy make supervised models tolerant of contamination but cannot answer which observations are corrupted. We introduce Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation (NBAM), a general-purpose drop-in loss derived from a Bayesian latent-switch mixture model: the marginal likelihood defines a robust supervised loss, and the associated posterior defines an unsupervised contamination classifier. Like Huber or Student-$t$, NBAM can replace the standard training loss in any supervised pipeline; unlike them, it additionally learns a structured contamination model and returns a calibrated per-sample contamination posterior. A learned input-dependent prior $π_ϕ(x)$ captures the spatial locality of contamination, so that samples near known corruptions are more likely to be flagged, while an Occam penalty emerges automatically and regularises against over-flagging. On CIFAR-10 with asymmetric label contamination, NBAM recovers the structure of the corruption process without supervision: the contamination posterior separates clean from corrupted samples, and the learned anomaly head identifies the direction of every label-flip pair. Alongside these capabilities, NBAM outperforms the four robust-loss baselines considered here at contamination rates 0.2-0.6.

cs.LG↗

Scalable Bayesian data curation for next-generation radio experiments

Next-generation radio telescopes produce data volumes that preclude manual quality assessment, yet data curation remains essential for science. We present a general, fully automatic Bayesian anomaly-detection method for radio science experiments in which data curation is performed inside the inference: a latent anomaly indicator is marginalised in the likelihood rather than converted into an external pre-flag. Implemented in JAX with GPU-accelerated inference, the pipeline assigns probabilistic data-curation scores without prior knowledge and requires no thresholds, manual inspection, or subjective decisions. We demonstrate the method on the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH), applying it to 4655 observations (one year of REACH data). The pipeline assigns scores across time and frequency, enabling identification of the optimal observations to carry forward into scientific inference while reducing the risk that contaminated data bias the result. In doing so, it simultaneously recovers weather-driven systematics, instrument-component drifts, and narrow-band radio-frequency interference, while revealing complex dependencies between data quality and environmental or instrumental state that would be difficult to uncover by manual curation alone. This turns data curation from an external manual bottleneck into autonomous, inference-level infrastructure for the Square Kilometre Array era.

astro-ph.IM↗

Star-formation variability on the star-forming main sequence during the Epoch of Reionization

Star formation in galaxies is intrinsically stochastic, driven by physical processes operating across a wide range of scales. The scatter in the star-forming main sequence relation provides a window into this variability, but interpreting this scatter in terms of underlying physical mechanisms remains challenging. We present a study of star-formation variability during reionization (redshift z=3-8) using power spectral density (PSD) models to characterize fluctuations in star formation rates (SFRs). We use estimates of the intrinsic scatter in main sequence SFRs at six averaging timescales (10-100 Myr) from a catalogue of ~17000 galaxies presented in Simmonds et al. 2025 to constrain two PSD models, the Simple Harmonic Oscillator (SHO) and the Extended Regulator (ExtReg), with nested sampling and neural network emulators. We find that the regulator component of the ExtReg model is poorly constrained by the present data. However, both the dynamical component of the ExtReg model and the single-component SHO model favour characteristic variability timescales of ~10-30 Myr, comparable to expected galactic dynamical and stellar feedback timescales. At least in the SHO model, and most clearly at z~3-4, the inferred PSD power on ~10 Myr timescales decreases with stellar mass, indicating more bursty, rapidly varying star formation in lower-mass galaxies than in higher-mass systems. We find weak evidence for a transition from a two-component ExtReg-like PSD at lower redshift to a single-component SHO-like PSD at higher redshift in the lowest stellar-mass bin, log M*/M$\odot$ = 8-8.5, although the Bayes factors are small and selection effects at high redshift prevent strong conclusions. Overall, our results suggest that the observed 10-100 Myr scatter of the high-redshift star-forming main sequence is governed primarily by short-timescale variability, consistent with galactic dynamical timescales.

astro-ph.GA↗

Conditional Neural Bayes Ratio Estimation for Experimental Design Optimisation

For frontier experiments operating at the edge of detectability, instrument design directly determines the probability of discovery. We introduce Conditional Neural Bayes Ratio Estimation (cNBRE), which extends neural Bayes ratio estimation by conditioning on design parameters, enabling a single trained network to estimate Bayes factors across a continuous design space. Applied to 21-cm radio cosmology with simulations representative of the REACH experiment, the amortised nature of cNBRE enables systematic design space exploration that would be intractable with traditional point-wise methods, while recovering established physical relationships. The analysis demonstrates a ~20 percentage point variation in detection probability with antenna orientation for a single night of observation, a design decision that would be trivial to implement if determined prior to antenna construction. This framework enables efficient, globally-informed experimental design optimisation for a wide range of scientific applications.

astro-ph.IM↗

On the accuracy of posterior recovery with neural network emulators

Neural network emulators are widely used in astrophysics and cosmology to approximate complex simulations inside Bayesian inference loops. Ad hoc rules of thumb are often used to justify the emulator accuracy required for reliable posterior recovery. We provide a theoretically motivated limit on the maximum amount of incorrect information inferred by using an emulator with a given accuracy. Under assumptions of linearity in the model, uncorrelated noise in the data and a Gaussian likelihood function, we demonstrate that the difference between the true underlying posterior and the recovered posterior can be quantified via a Kullback-Leibler divergence. We demonstrate how this limit can be used in the field of 21-cm cosmology by comparing the posteriors recovered when fitting mock data sets generated with the 1D radiative transfer code ARES directly with the simulation code and separately with an emulator. This paper is partly in response to and builds upon recent discussions in the literature which call into question the use of emulators in Bayesian inference pipelines. Upon repeating some aspects of these analyses, we find these concerns quantitatively unjustified, with accurate posterior recovery possible even when the mean RMSE error for the emulator is approximately 20% of the magnitude of the noise in the data. For the purposes of community reproducibility, we make our analysis code public at this link https://github.com/htjb/validating_posteriors.

astro-ph.CO↗

The magnitude of the dark ages 21-cm signal in the context of existing early and late time constraints on $Λ$CDM

The dark ages 21-cm signal is a promising probe of the currently unobserved infant universe between the formation of the Cosmic Microwave Background around $z \approx 1100$ and the first galaxies around $z\approx 30$. A detection of the signal will help researchers understanding the nature of dark matter and dark energy, the expansion of the universe and any extensions to the concordance $Λ$CDM model that could explain the reported Cosmic Dawn 21-cm signal from EDGES and the Hubble tension. In this letter we take existing constraints on the $Λ$CDM cosmological model from two early time probes, Planck and WMAP, and two late time probes, DES galaxy lensing and clustering and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, and propagate these through to constraints on the magnitude of the dark ages 21-cm signal. We constrain the magnitude and central frequency of the signal while methodically accounting for uncertainties in the cosmological parameters. We find that within the context of our modelling assumptions and the $Λ$CDM paradigm, the depth of the dark ages 21-cm signal is known to better than 1 mK and the central frequency to within 0.05 MHz.

astro-ph.CO↗

Bayesian Anomaly Detection for Ia Cosmology: Automating SALT3 Data Curation

Precision cosmology with Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) requires robust quality control of large, heterogeneous datasets. Current data processing often relies on manual, subjective rejection of photometric data, a practice that is not scalable for forthcoming surveys like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We present a Bayesian framework that automates this step by integrating anomaly detection directly into the light curve fitting process. While the framework is model-agnostic and compatible with any spectral energy distribution (SED) model, here we demonstrate its application with the SALT3 model, implemented fully on GPU using \texttt{JAX-bandflux} for computational efficiency. Our method models the probability of each photometric measurement being anomalous with respect to the model, simultaneously inferring the physical supernova parameters and each data point's posterior probability of being a contaminant. Applying this framework to the Hawaii Supernova Flows dataset, we demonstrate its three principal capabilities: (i) robust mitigation of isolated outliers; (ii) automated identification and rejection of entirely corrupted bandpasses; and (iii) preservation of valid data by flagging only specific anomalous points within otherwise usable filters. We also find that contaminants are systematically brighter and bluer, which if uncorrected could bias subsequent cosmological inference.

astro-ph.IM↗

Radiometer Calibration using Machine Learning

Radiometers are crucial instruments in radio astronomy, forming the primary component of nearly all radio telescopes. They measure the intensity of electromagnetic radiation, converting this radiation into electrical signals. A radiometer's primary components are an antenna and a Low Noise Amplifier (LNA), which is the core of the ``receiver'' chain. Instrumental effects introduced by the receiver are typically corrected or removed during calibration. However, impedance mismatches between the antenna and receiver can introduce unwanted signal reflections and distortions. Traditional calibration methods, such as Dicke switching, alternate the receiver input between the antenna and a well-characterised reference source to mitigate errors by comparison. Recent advances in Machine Learning (ML) offer promising alternatives. Neural networks, which are trained using known signal sources, provide a powerful means to model and calibrate complex systems where traditional analytical approaches struggle. These methods are especially relevant for detecting the faint sky-averaged 21-cm signal from atomic hydrogen at high redshifts. This is one of the main challenges in observational Cosmology today. Here, for the first time, we introduce and test a machine learning-based calibration framework capable of achieving the precision required for radiometric experiments aiming to detect the 21-cm line.

astro-ph.IM↗

The mass distribution of the first stars can be determined via the 21-cm signal

The formation of the first stars and the subsequent population of X-ray binaries represents a fundamental transition in the state of the Universe as it evolves from near homogeneity to being abundant in collapsed structures such as galaxies. Due to a lack of direct observations, the properties of these stars remain highly uncertain. By considering the impact of the first stars and their remnant X-ray binaries on the cosmological 21-cm signal, we demonstrate that upcoming observations have the potential to significantly improve our understanding of these objects. We find a 25 mK sensitivity measurement of the 21-cm global signal by a wide-beam radiometer, such as REACH, or 3,000 hours of foreground avoidance observations of the 21-cm power spectrum by SKA-Low, could provide three-sigma constraints on the mass distribution of the first stars. Such measurements will fill a critical gap in our understanding of the early Universe and aid in interpreting high-redshift galaxy observations.

astro-ph.CO↗

Receiver design for the REACH global 21-cm signal experiment

We detail the the REACH radiometric system designed to enable measurements of the 21-cm neutral hydrogen line. Included is the radiometer architecture and end-to-end system simulations as well as a discussion of the challenges intrinsic to highly-calibratable system development. Following this, we share laboratory results based on the calculation of noise wave parameters utilising an over-constrained least squares approach demonstrating a calibration RMSE of 80 mK for five hours of integration on a custom-made source with comparable impedance to that of the antenna used in the field. This paper therefore documents the state of the calibrator and data analysis in December 2022 in Cambridge before shipping to South Africa.

astro-ph.IM↗

Constraining the properties of Population III galaxies with multi-wavelength observations

The early Universe, spanning 400,000 to 400 million years after the Big Bang ($z\approx1100-11$), has been left largely unexplored as the light from luminous objects is too faint to be observed directly. While new experiments are pushing the redshift limit of direct observations, measurements in the low-frequency radio band promise to probe early star and black hole formation via observations of the hydrogen 21-cm line. In this work we explore synergies between 21-cm data from the HERA and SARAS 3 experiments and observations of the unresolved radio and X-ray backgrounds using multi-wavelength Bayesian analysis. We use the combined data set to constrain properties of Population II and Population III stars as well as early X-ray and radio sources. The joint fit reveals a 68 percentile disfavouring of Population III star formation efficiencies $\gtrsim5.7\%$. We also show how the 21-cm and the X-ray background data synergistically constrain opposite ends of the X-ray efficiency prior distribution to produce a peak in the 1D posterior of the X-ray luminosity per star formation rate. We find (at 68\% confidence) that early galaxies were likely 0.3 to 318 times as X-ray efficient as present-day starburst galaxies. We also show that the functional posteriors from our joint fit rule out global 21-cm signals deeper than $\lesssim-203\ \mathrm{mK}$ and power spectrum amplitudes at $k=0.34\ h\mathrm{Mpc^{-1}}$ greater than $Δ_{21}^2 \gtrsim 946\ \mathrm{mK}^2$ with $3σ$ confidence.

astro-ph.CO↗

On the Constraints on Superconducting Cosmic Strings from 21-cm Cosmology

Constraints on the potential properties of superconducting cosmic strings provide an indirect probe of physics beyond the standard model at energies inaccessible to terrestrial particle colliders. In this study, we perform the first joint Bayesian analysis to extract constraints on superconducting cosmic strings from current 21-cm signal measurements while accounting rigorously for the uncertainties in foregrounds and high redshift astrophysics. We include the latest publicly available 21-cm power spectrum upper limits from HERA, 21-cm global signal data from SARAS 3, and the synergistic probe of the unresolved X-ray background in our final analysis. This paper thus constitutes the first attempt to use 21-cm power spectrum data to probe cosmic strings. In contrast to previous works, we find no strong constraints can be placed on superconducting cosmic strings from current 21-cm measurements. This is because of uncertainties in the X-ray emission efficiency of the first galaxies, with X-ray emissivities greater than $3 \times 10^{40}$erg s$^{-1}$ M$_{\odot}^{-1}$ yr able to mask the presence of cosmic strings in the 21-cm signal. We conclude by discussing the prospects for future constraints from definitive 21-cm signal measurements and argue that the recently proposed soft photon heating should be cause for optimism due to its potential to break degeneracies that would have otherwise made the signatures of cosmic strings difficult to distinguish from those of astrophysical origin.

astro-ph.CO↗

Radio antenna design for sky-averaged 21 cm cosmology experiments: the REACH case

Following the reported detection of an absorption profile associated with the 21~cm sky-averaged signal from the Cosmic Dawn by the EDGES experiment in 2018, a number of experiments have been set up to verify this result. This paper discusses the design process used for global 21~cm experiments, focusing specifically on the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH). This experiment will seek to understand and compensate for systematic errors present using detailed modelling and characterization of the instrumentation. There is detailed the quantitative figures of merit and numerical modelling used to assist the design process of the REACH dipole antenna (one of the 2 antenna designs for REACH Phase I). This design process produced a 2.5:1 frequency bandwidth dipole. The aim of this design was to balance spectral smoothness and low impedance reflections with the ability to describe and understand the antenna response to the sky signal to inform the critically important calibration during observation and data analysis.

astro-ph.IM↗

Astrophysical Constraints from the SARAS3 non-detection of the Cosmic Dawn Sky-Averaged 21-cm Signal

Observations of the redshifted 21-cm line of atomic hydrogen have resulted in several upper limits on the 21-cm power spectrum and a tentative detection of the sky-averaged signal at $z\sim17$. Made with the EDGES Low-Band antenna, this claim was recently disputed by the SARAS3 experiment, which reported a non-detection and is the only available upper limit strong enough to constrain cosmic dawn astrophysics. We use these data to constrain a population of radio-luminous galaxies $\sim 200$ million years after the Big Bang ($z\approx 20$). We find, using Bayesian data analysis, that the data disfavours (at 68% confidence) radio-luminous galaxies in dark matter halos with masses of $4.4\times10^{5}$ M$_\odot \lesssim M \lesssim 1.1\times10^{7}$M$_\odot$ (where $M_\odot$ is the mass of the Sun) at $z = 20$ and galaxies in which $>5$% of the gas is converted into stars. The data disfavour galaxies with radio luminosity per star formation rate of $L_\mathrm{r}/\mathrm{SFR} \gtrsim 1.549 \times 10^{25}$ W Hz$^{-1}$M$_\odot^{-1}$ yr at 150 MHz, a thousand times brighter than today, and, separately, a synchrotron radio background in excess of the CMB by $\gtrsim 6%$ at 1.42 GHz.

astro-ph.CO↗

The REACH radiometer for detecting the 21-cm hydrogen signal from redshift 7.5 to 28

Observations of the 21-cm line from primordial hydrogen promise to be one of the best tools to study the early epochs of the Universe: the Dark Ages, the Cosmic Dawn, and the subsequent Epoch of Reionization. In 2018, the EDGES experiment caught the attention of the cosmology community with a potential detection of an absorption feature in the sky-averaged radio spectrum centred at 78 MHz. The feature is deeper than expected, and, if confirmed, would call for new physics. However, different groups have re-analyzed the EDGES data and questioned the reliability of the signal. The Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH) is a sky-averaged 21-cm experiment aiming at improving the current observations by tackling the issues faced by current instruments related to residual systematic signals in the data. The novel experimental approach focuses on detecting and jointly explaining these systematics together with the foregrounds and the cosmological signal using Bayesian statistics. To achieve this, REACH features simultaneous observations with two different antennas, an ultra wideband system (redshift range 7.5 to 28), and a receiver calibrator based on in-field measurements. Simulated observations forecast percent-level constraints on astrophysical parameters, potentially opening up a new window to the infant Universe.

astro-ph.CO↗

A Comprehensive Bayesian re-analysis of the SARAS2 data from the Epoch of Reionization

We present a Bayesian re-analysis of the sky-averaged 21-cm experimental data from SARAS2 using nested sampling implemented with polychord, spectrally smooth foreground modelling implemented with maxsmooth, detailed systematic modelling and rapid signal emulation with globalemu. Our analysis differs from previous analysis of the SARAS2 data through the use of a full Bayesian framework and separate modelling of the foreground and non-smooth systematics. We use the most up-to-date signal models including Lyman-$α$ and CMB heating parameterised by astrophysical parameters such as star formation efficiency, X-ray heating efficiency, minimal virial circular velocity of star forming galaxies, CMB optical depth and the low energy cutoff of the X-ray spectral energy distribution. We consider models with an excess radio background above the CMB produced via radio emission from early galaxies and parameterised by a radio production efficiency. A non-smooth systematic is identified and modelled as both a frequency damped sinusoid introduced by the electronics and separately from the sky. The latter is modulated by the total efficiency of the antenna and marginally favoured by the data. We consider three different models for the noise in the data. The SARAS2 constraints on individual astrophysical parameters are extremely weak however we identify classes of disfavoured signals. We weakly disfavour standard astrophysical models with high Lyman-$α$ fluxes and weak heating and more confidently disfavour exotic models with high Lyman-$α$ fluxes, low X-ray efficiencies and high radio production efficiencies in early galaxies.

astro-ph.CO↗

GLOBALEMU: A novel and robust approach for emulating the sky-averaged 21-cm signal from the cosmic dawn and epoch of reionisation

Emulation of the Global (sky-averaged) 21-cm signal with neural networks has been shown to be an essential tool for physical signal modelling. In this paper we present globalemu, a Global 21-cm signal emulator that uses redshift as a character defining variable alongside a set of astrophysical parameters to estimate the signal brightness temperature. Combined with physically-motivated data pre-processing this makes for a reliable and fast emulator that is relatively insensitive to the network design. globalemu can emulate a high resolution signal in 1.3 ms in comparison to 133 ms, a factor of 102 improvement, when using the existing public state of the art 21cmGEM. We illustrate, with the standard astrophysical models used to train 21cmGEM, that globalemu is almost twice as accurate and for a test set of $\approx1,700$ signals we achieve a mean RMSE of 2.52 mK across the band z=7-28 ($\approx$10 per cent the expected noise of the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH)). The models are parameterised by the star formation efficiency, $f_*$, minimum virial circular velocity, $V_c$, X-ray efficiency, $f_X$, CMB optical depth, $τ$, the slope and low energy cut off of the X-ray spectral energy density, $α$ and $ν_\mathrm{min}$, and the mean free path of ionizing photons, $R_\mathrm{mfp}$. globalemu provides a flexible framework for easily emulating updated simulations of the Global signal and in addition the neutral fraction history. The emulator is pip installable and available at: \url{https://github.com/htjb/globalemu}. globalemu will be used extensively by the REACH collaboration.

astro-ph.CO↗

maxsmooth: Rapid Maximally Smooth Function Fitting With Applications in Global 21-cm Cosmology

Maximally Smooth Functions (MSFs) are a form of constrained functions in which there are no inflection points or zero crossings in high order derivatives. Consequently, they have applications to signal recovery in experiments where signals of interest are expected to be non-smooth features masked by larger smooth signals or foregrounds. They can also act as a powerful tool for diagnosing the presence of systematics. The constrained nature of MSFs makes fitting these functions a non-trivial task. We introduce maxsmooth, an open source package that uses quadratic programming to rapidly fit MSFs. We demonstrate the efficiency and reliability of maxsmooth by comparison to commonly used fitting routines and show that we can reduce the fitting time by approximately two orders of magnitude. We introduce and implement with maxsmooth Partially Smooth Functions, which are useful for describing elements of non-smooth structure in foregrounds. This work has been motivated by the problem of foreground modelling in 21-cm cosmology. We discuss applications of maxsmooth to 21-cm cosmology and highlight this with examples using data from the Experiment to Detect the Global Epoch of Reionization Signature (EDGES) and the Large-aperture Experiment to Detect the Dark Ages (LEDA) experiments. We demonstrate the presence of a sinusoidal systematic in the EDGES data with a log-evidence difference of $86.19\pm0.12$ when compared to a pure foreground fit. MSFs are applied to data from LEDA for the first time in this paper and we identify the presence of sinusoidal systematics. maxsmooth is pip installable and available for download at: https://github.com/htjb/maxsmooth

astro-ph.CO↗