arXiv subjects

Hannah T. Rüdisser

Publications and source records attributed to Hannah T. Rüdisser.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Probing the magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection with PSR J1022+1001

We investigate whether low-frequency pulsar observations can provide LoS magnetic field estimates and whether these are consistent with synthetic LoS signatures extracted from a three-dimensional CME reconstruction constrained by Solar Orbiter data. We analyze a CME occultation of the LoS to PSR J1022+1001 on 20 August 2021 at a projected heliocentric distance of 24.6 R_sun, observed simultaneously with LOFAR and NenuFAR. From LOFAR, we derive time-resolved dispersion measure (DM) and rotation measure (RM) and isolate the CME contributions using background estimates for interstellar, solar wind and ionospheric components. We then infer the density-weighted LoS-averaged magnetic field component _PSR from the ratio delta-RM/delta-DM. In parallel, we reconstruct the CME using a semi-empirical 3DCORE model fitted to Solar Orbiter in-situ magnetic field observations at 0.65 au. We sample the modeled magnetic field along the pulsar LoS using fixed spatial sampling points and compute synthetic LoS-averaged signatures _3D for different flux rope configurations. The derived _PSR increases from approximately -9 nT to a peak near 63 nT during the observed interval. Comparison with synthetic signatures shows that the polarity and temporal evolution of the LoS signal are strongly dependent on the flux rope configuration and only a South-West-North (SWN) configuration (confirmed by Solar Orbiter in-situ data) reproduces the observed sign and overall evolution, whereas alternative configurations are incompatible. The modeled amplitudes, however, are systematically larger than the pulsar-derived values by roughly a factor of five. We show that simultaneous low-frequency pulsar DM and RM measurements can provide LoS magnetic field estimates for a CME and can be used to test CME magnetic structure against data-constrained three-dimensional reconstructions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Real-time prediction of two geomagnetic storms using Solar Orbiter as a far upstream solar wind monitor

We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach assumes idealized conditions for CME propagation and scaling, in situ magnetic field data from upstream monitors still produced realistic predictions despite the large heliocentric distance between Solar Orbiter and L1 (0.53 and 0.60 au). Geomagnetic index predictions were made 15.3 and 4.3 hours before the CME shock arrival at L1, and 33.9 and 10.3 hours ahead of peak storm time; a large improvement over current L1-based nowcasting capabilities. We find that observationally constraining the simple drag-based models using the upstream in situ observations improved arrival time estimates for the two events in this study, although arrival time errors of several hours still remain. Our results show that good predictions of CME magnetic structure and geomagnetic indices with actionable lead-times can be made with far upstream spacecraft, even with longitudinal separations up to 10° from the Sun-Earth line, over heliocentric distance ranges where radial evolution effects dominate over longitudinal effects. Limitations include different expansion behaviors for individual CMEs and regions within. Future missions providing continuous data, including solar wind plasma parameters alongside magnetic field measurements, could account for preexisting disturbed conditions and improve geomagnetic prediction accuracy. Our findings demonstrate the substantial value of real-time upstream solar wind measurements for enhancing geomagnetic forecasting accuracy at Earth and provide critical validation for future dedicated upstream space weather missions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2026

Towards a Fully Automated Pipeline for Short-Term Forecasting of In Situ Coronal Mass Ejection Magnetic Field Structure

We present an automated pipeline for operational short-term forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic field structure at L1, coupling arrival time prediction, in situ detection, and iterative flux rope reconstruction, following near-real-time remote-sensing CME identification. The system is triggered by new entries in the CCMC DONKI database and first applies the drag-based ELEvo model to determine whether an Earth impact is expected and estimate arrival time. This estimate defines a temporal window constraining the search for CME signatures in real-time L1 in situ solar wind data, where the magnetic obstacle (MO) is automatically detected using the deep learning model ARCANE. Upon MO onset, iterative reconstructions with the semi-empirical flux rope model 3DCORE are performed, using a Monte Carlo fitting scheme, producing continuously updated forecasts of the remaining magnetic field profile. We evaluate the pipeline using 3870 archived DONKI entries and archived NOAA real-time in situ data from 2013-2025, assessing forecast performance at different stages of MO observation. For 61 events with an associated ground-truth counterpart in the ICMECAT catalog, forecasts based on initial MO data already achieve performance comparable to full-event reconstructions. Typical errors are ~5 hours in timing of magnetic field extrema and ~10 nT in field strength metrics, with limited systematic improvement as more of the event is observed. Results show substantial event variability and systematic underestimation of extrema, indicating deviations from ideal flux rope assumptions. These findings demonstrate the potential of fully autonomous real-time forecasting while highlighting limitations imposed by event complexity and model representational capacity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

On the magnetic field evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejections from 0.07 to 5.4 au

A central question for understanding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) physics and improving space weather forecasting is how ICMEs evolve in interplanetary space. We have updated one of the most comprehensive in situ ICME catalogs to date, which now includes 1976 events from 11 space missions covering over 34 years, from December 1990 to August 2025. We have combined existing catalogs including magnetic obstacles and identified and added boundaries of an additional 807 (40.8%) events ourselves. With this catalog, we demonstrate the most extensive analysis to date of total ICME magnetic field values as a function of heliocentric distance. Parker Solar Probe has observed 6 ICMEs at $< 0.23$ au (until April 2025), and Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo have added more events near 0.3 au, bridging the major observational gap towards the solar corona. Our main result is that a single power law can describe the evolution of the mean total magnetic field (exponent value of $k=-1.57$) and maximum field ($k=-1.53$) for ICMEs with magnetic obstacles (MOs), from 0.07 to 5.4 au. Extending the power law to the solar photosphere reveals a strong inconsistency with magnetic field magnitudes observed in the quiet Sun and active regions by 2 and 4 orders of magnitude, respectively. We introduce a multipole-type power law with two exponents, $k_1=-1.57$, and $k_2=-6$, relating the ICME magnetic field magnitude to an average solar active region field strength. These results present important observational constraints for the evolution of ICMEs from the Sun to the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

First observations of a geomagnetic superstorm with a sub-L1 monitor

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is currently an unsolved problem. CMEs, responsible for the largest values of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, are the key driver of intense and extreme geomagnetic activity. Observations of southward interplanetary magnetic fields are currently only accessible directly through in situ measurements by spacecraft in the solar wind. On 10-12 May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 took place, caused by five interacting CMEs. We clarify the relationship between the CMEs, their solar source regions, and the resulting signatures at the Sun-Earth L1 point observed by the ACE spacecraft at 1.00 AU. The STEREO-A spacecraft was situated at 0.956 AU and 12.6° west of Earth during the event, serving as a fortuitous sub-L1 monitor providing interplanetary magnetic field measurements of the solar wind. We demonstrate an extension of the prediction lead time, as the shock was observed 2.57 hours earlier at STEREO-A than at L1, consistent with the measured shock speed at L1, 710 km/s, and the radial distance of 0.04 AU. By deriving the geomagnetic indices based on the STEREO-A beacon data, we show that the strength of the geomagnetic storm would have been decently forecasted, with the modeled minimum SYM-H=-478.5 nT, underestimating the observed minimum by only 8%. Our study sets an unprecedented benchmark for future mission design using upstream monitoring for space weather prediction.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Influence of the Deformation of Coronal Mass Ejections on Their In-Situ Fitting with Circular-Cross-Section Flux Rope Models

Understanding the properties, especially the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) invariants, of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) measured in-situ is key to bridging the CME properties from the Sun to interplanetary space. In order to investigate CMEs from the in-situ measurements that provide a one-dimensional (1-D) cut of the CME parameters over the spacecraft trajectory, various magnetic flux rope (MFR) models have been developed, among which the models with a circular cross-section are the most popular and widely used. CMEs are found to be deformed during their propagation in interplanetary space, in which the cross-section may be flattened in the direction of propagation, i.e., to develop an elliptical or even pancake-like shape. We use numerical MHD simulations in 2.5-D to investigate the influence of the CME deformation on the in-situ fitting using two linear force-free MFR models with a circular cross-section, and we focus on the axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes, which are conserved in the ideal MHD frame and simulations. We quantitatively compare the fitted axial and poloidal fluxes with those in simulations. We find that both models underestimate the axial flux compared to that in simulations, and such underestimation depends on the CME deformation. However, the fitting of the poloidal flux is independent of the deformation. We discuss the reasons for the axial flux underestimation and the implication of the CME deformation for the CME in-situ fitting.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Flux rope modeling of the 2022 Sep 5 CME observed by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter from 0.07 to 0.69 au

As both Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) reach heliocentric distances closer to the Sun, they present an exciting opportunity to study the structure of CMEs in the inner heliosphere. We present an analysis of the global flux rope structure of the 2022 September 5 CME event that impacted PSP at a heliocentric distance of only 0.07 au and SolO at 0.69 au. We compare in situ measurements at PSP and SolO to determine global and local expansion measures, finding a good agreement between magnetic field relationships with heliocentric distance, but significant differences with respect to flux rope size. We use PSP/WISPR images as input to the ELEvoHI model, providing a direct link between remote and in situ observations; we find a large discrepancy between the resulting modeled arrival times, suggesting that the underlying model assumptions may not be suitable when using data obtained close to the Sun, where the drag regime is markedly different in comparison to larger heliocentric distances. Finally, we fit the SolO/MAG and PSP/FIELDS data independently with the 3DCORE model and find that many parameters are consistent between spacecraft, however, challenges are apparent when reconstructing a global 3D structure that aligns with arrival times at PSP and Solar Orbiter, likely due to the large radial and longitudinal separations between spacecraft. From our model results, it is clear the solar wind background speed and drag regime strongly affect the modeled expansion and propagation of CMEs and need to be taken into consideration.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

The eruption of a magnetic flux rope observed by \textit{Solar Orbiter} and \textit{Parker Solar Probe}

Magnetic flux ropes are a key component of coronal mass ejections, forming the core of these eruptive phenomena. However, determining whether a flux rope is present prior to eruption onset and, if so, the rope's handedness and the number of turns that any helical field lines make is difficult without magnetic field modelling or in-situ detection of the flux rope. We present two distinct observations of plasma flows along a filament channel on 4 and 5 September 2022 made using the \textit{Solar Orbiter} spacecraft. Each plasma flow exhibited helical motions in a right-handed sense as the plasma moved from the source active region across the solar disk to the quiet Sun, suggesting that the magnetic configuration of the filament channel contains a flux rope with positive chirality and at least one turn. The length and velocity of the plasma flow increased from the first to the second observation, suggesting evolution of the flux rope, with the flux rope subsequently erupting within $\sim$5~hours of the second plasma flow. The erupting flux rope then passed over the \textit{Parker Solar Probe} spacecraft during its Encounter 13, enabling \textit{in-situ} diagnostics of the structure. Although complex and consistent with the flux rope erupting from underneath the heliospheric current sheet, the \textit{in-situ} measurements support the inference of a right-handed flux rope from remote-sensing observations. These observations provide a unique insight into the eruption and evolution of a magnetic flux rope near the Sun.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Automatic Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Wind In Situ Data

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are one of the main drivers for space weather disturbances. In the past, different approaches have been used to automatically detect events in existing time series resulting from solar wind in situ observations. However, accurate and fast detection still remains a challenge when facing the large amount of data from different instruments. For the automatic detection of ICMEs we propose a pipeline using a method that has recently proven successful in medical image segmentation. Comparing it to an existing method, we find that while achieving similar results, our model outperforms the baseline regarding training time by a factor of approximately 20, thus making it more applicable for other datasets. The method has been tested on in situ data from the Wind spacecraft between 1997 and 2015 with a True Skill Statistic (TSS) of 0.64. Out of the 640 ICMEs, 466 were detected correctly by our algorithm, producing a total of 254 False Positives. Additionally, it produced reasonable results on datasets with fewer features and smaller training sets from Wind, STEREO-A and STEREO-B with True Skill Statistics of 0.56, 0.57 and 0.53, respectively. Our pipeline manages to find the start of an ICME with a mean absolute error (MAE) of around 2 hours and 56 minutes, and the end time with a MAE of 3 hours and 20 minutes. The relatively fast training allows straightforward tuning of hyperparameters and could therefore easily be used to detect other structures and phenomena in solar wind data, such as corotating interaction regions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Machine learning for predicting the Bz magnetic field component from upstream in situ observations of solar coronal mass ejections

Predicting the Bz magnetic field embedded within ICMEs, also known as the Bz problem, is a key challenge in space weather forecasting. We study the hypothesis that upstream in situ measurements of the sheath region and the first few hours of the magnetic obstacle provide sufficient information for predicting the downstream Bz component. To do so, we develop a predictive tool based on machine learning that is trained and tested on 348 ICMEs from Wind, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B measurements. We train the machine learning models to predict the minimum value of the Bz component and the maximum value of the total magnetic field Bz in the magnetic obstacle. To validate the tool, we let the ICMEs sweep over the spacecraft and assess how continually feeding in situ measurements into the tool improves the Bz prediction. Because the application of the tool in operations needs an automated detection of ICMEs, we implement an existing automated ICME detection algorithm and test its robustness for the time intervals under scrutiny. We find that the predictive tool can predict the minimum value of the Bz component in the magnetic obstacle with a mean absolute error of 3.12 nT and a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.71 when the sheath region and the first 4 hours of the magnetic obstacle are observed. While the underlying hypothesis is unlikely to solve the Bz problem, the tool shows promise for ICMEs that have a recognizable magnetic flux rope signature. Transitioning the tool to operations could lead to improved space weather forecasting.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Colorado Ultraviolet Transit Experiment Data Simulator

The Colorado Ultraviolet Transit Experiment (CUTE) is a 6U NASA CubeSat carrying on-board a low-resolution (R~2000--3000), near-ultraviolet (2500--3300 Å) spectrograph. It has a rectangular primary Cassegrain telescope to maximize the collecting area. CUTE, which is planned for launch in Spring 2020, is designed to monitor transiting extra-solar planets orbiting bright, nearby stars aiming at improving our understanding of planet atmospheric escape and star-planet interaction processes. We present here the CUTE data simulator, which we complemented with a basic data reduction pipeline. This pipeline will be then updated once the final CUTE data reduction pipeline is developed. We show here the application of the simulator to the HD209458 system and a first estimate of the precision on the measurement of the transit depth as a function of temperature and magnitude of the host star. We also present estimates of the effect of spacecraft jitter on the final spectral resolution. The simulator has been developed considering also scalability and adaptability to other missions carrying on-board a long-slit spectrograph. The data simulator will be used to inform the CUTE target selection, choose the spacecraft and instrument settings for each observation, and construct synthetic CUTE wavelength-dependent transit light curves on which to develop the CUTE data reduction pipeline.

astro-ph.IM↗