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Hannah Tritzschak

Publications and source records attributed to Hannah Tritzschak.

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MEmilio -- A high performance Modular EpideMIcs simuLatIOn software for multi-scale and comparative simulations of infectious disease dynamics

Epidemic and pandemic preparedness with rapid outbreak response rely on timely, trustworthy evidence. Mathematical models are crucial for supporting timely and reliable evidence generation for public health decision-making with models spanning approaches from compartmental and metapopulation models to detailed agent-based simulations. Yet, the accompanying software ecosystem remains fragmented across model types, spatial resolutions, and computational targets, making models harder to compare, extend, and deploy at scale. Here we present MEmilio, a modular, high-performance framework for epidemic simulation that harmonizes the specification and execution of diverse dynamic epidemiological models within a unified and harmonized architecture. MEmilio couples an efficient C++ simulation core with coherent model descriptions and a user-friendly Python interface, enabling workflows that run on laptops as well as high-performance computing systems. Standardized representations of space, demography, and mobility support straightforward adaptations in resolution and population size, facilitating systematic inter-model comparisons and ensemble studies. The framework integrates readily with established tools for uncertainty quantification and parameter inference, supporting a broad range of applications from scenario exploration to calibration. Finally, strict software-engineering practices, including extensive unit and continuous integration testing, promote robustness and minimize the risk of errors as the framework evolves. By unifying implementations across modeling paradigms, MEmilio aims to lower barriers to reuse and generalize models, enable principled comparisons of implicit assumptions, and accelerate the development of novel approaches that strengthen modeling-based outbreak preparedness.

q-bio.PE

A nonstandard numerical scheme for a novel SECIR integro-differential equation-based model allowing nonexponentially distributed stay times

Ordinary differential equations (ODE) are a popular tool to model the spread of infectious diseases, yet they implicitly assume an exponential distribution to describe the flow from one infection state to another. However, scientific experience yields more plausible distributions where the likelihood of disease progression changes accordingly with the duration spent in a particular state of the disease. Furthermore, transmission dynamics depend heavily on the infectiousness of individuals. The corresponding nonlinear variation with the time individuals have already spent in an infectious state requires more realistic models. The previously mentioned items are particularly crucial when modeling dynamics at change points such as the implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions. In order to capture these aspects and to enhance the accuracy of simulations, integro-differential equations (IDE) can be used. In this paper, we propose a generalized model based on IDEs with eight infection states. The model allows for variable stay time distributions and generalizes the concept of ODE-based models as well as IDE-based age-of-infection models. In this, we include particular infection states for severe and critical cases to allow for surveillance of the clinical sector, avoiding bottlenecks and overloads in critical epidemic situations. On the other hand, a drawback of IDE-based models is that efficient numerical solvers are not as widely available. We extend a recently introduced nonstandard numerical scheme. This scheme is adapted to our more advanced model and we prove important mathematical and biological properties. Furthermore, we validate our approach numerically by demonstrating the convergence rate. Eventually, we also show that our novel model is intrinsically capable of better assessing disease dynamics upon the introduction of nonpharmaceutical interventions.

math.NA